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TLT

Grab some treasury on a full bus of bears! Despite the bond bubble right now, I believe there's some room for another rally in bonds. The election of trump have seen stocks driven to record highs, and bonds/treasury/gold crushed. The longest stretch of inflows into US equities since 2014 when the dollar rallied 20%. Net short in 10 year bonds are currently at record lows: (-500,000) i.imgur.com (courtesy of zerohedge) A large covering of shorts could drive bonds much higher in the coming days into Q4 earnings season. I believe a buy at this level is a pretty reasonable risk reward on the backs of the majority in the market... (4% stops, 20% tgt)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by LastBattle
Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary EnvironmentWe are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and risk-OFF environment, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that GOLD could do quite well. US treasury bonds should outperform HYG and EMB. Oil is the wild card. Higher or even flat oil prices will be much higher than they were last year. The YoY inflation effects if OPEC can stabilize the oil market above $50 for the next two months would really feed into inflation. Higher inflation would hurt the US consumer and business margins applying further downward pressure on risk assets. But I am getting ahead of myself. The risk-ON rally is likely over, and it's time to expect a risk-OFF rising inflation environment.
TVC:SPXShort
by KlendathuCap