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TLT

$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
49
Opening (IRA): TLT January 17th 83 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. Unfortunately, when I started laddering out, a March cut was on the table, but that has been pushed back to at least June and possibly September, so I probably got a little bigger in the position than I originally anticipated. That will resolve itself somewhat as shorter duration rungs fall off via take profit or roll-out (probably the former).
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See Post Below), so am getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) short put premium; and (c) dividends for a kind of "triple whammy."
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Shelter Inflation. The Tail That Wags The DogInflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation. 6Mo USCPI Inflation was at its lowest levels since Covid-19 pandemic in early 2023 Top 4 U.S. stock market Indices were in rally in 2023 The economy has cooled under the weight of rising interest rates, as the central bank intended, but remains surprisingly resilient. Energy prices are down. Food prices are mellowing out. But the cost of having a place to live is still rising much faster than just about every other essential. U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation Headline inflation was up 3.1% from a year ago, and so-called "core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4%. But the cost of shelter, which is the biggest component of the basket of goods the BLS uses to measure the cost of living, was up 6.5%. "The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy," read the Bureau of Labor Statistics report accompanying the latest data on consumer prices. "The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase." When the covid-19 pandemic hit, the cost of housing surged as those who could afford it sought out bigger homes and many city-dwellers transitioned to the suburbs. What goes into Consumer Price Index That and a glut of savings unhindered by low interest rates combined to exacerbate what had been a long-simmering Housing crisis the U.S. But now that baked-in price hikes and rising mortgage rates spurred by tightened Federal Reserve monetary policy have put a bit of a damper on things, the housing market is also starting to cool. U.S. Single Family Home Prices in "Bubble Mode" 30Yrs Fixed Mortgage Rate is at 20Yrs Highs. 30Yrs Mortgage Annual Payment U.S. Single Family Home, only Interest. Housing prices tend to be “much stickier” than most costs, which means that when they rise we feel it more - and for longer (read - "for ever"). Housing prices do not compressed like just baked iPhone or iMac later in few years of its release. - Does all af that mean that pre-covid levels of relative housing affordability are coming back? - Sure "No". But at least American wages, which are still rising faster than before the pandemic thanks to increased worker power, will have a little chance to make up some lost ground. The issue is still Federal Reserve' lagged tightening policy, that is "The Tail That Wags The Dog".
FRED:CUSR0000SAH1
by Pandorra
Bullish Divergence + Pinbar in TLTI'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really start moving. There is some overhead resistance that the market will need to overcome and I expect plenty of volatility, so safest play may be to have a stop just below the 23' lows and then stay hands off and give it room to run.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by krugman87
1
Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September? This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone". Target #1 = $104 Target #2 = $122 Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
$TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders, In technical analysis of Treasury Bond ETFs, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal signal. It occurs when the ETF's price forms three distinct troughs, with the middle trough ("head") being the lowest and the two outer troughs ("shoulders") being higher. A "neckline" is drawn connecting the highs of the two shoulders. When the price breaks above this neckline, usually with increased volume, it confirms the pattern and signals a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The distance between the head and the neckline can be projected upward from the breakout point to estimate a price target for the potential rally. However, traders often combine this pattern with other indicators like moving averages or oscillators for further confirmation and risk management.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
TLT is about to launch!This thing is about to take off like a bat outa hell. IF the FED decide to cut, it'll be because markets broke down and they're reacting to the news (central banks have an uncanny ability to screw things up and then overreact to them down the road). I anticipate a larger cut then 50 basis points. I anticipate 100 to 200 basis point cut, which means NASDAQ:NVDA will collapse taking the rest of the market down with them. Then the FED will possibly cut again in September, and hold for the rest of the year (since they want to appear impartial before the election). This last half of the year will be the bubble year, and everything will moon imo. I think after NASDAQ:TLT I'd invest the proceeds into NYSE:NEM calls which is going to quadruple. As always NFA. Please follow me and turn on notifications to get my updates and thoughts on the charts as I frequently comment. Also I will be releasing an options play this Friday that will give a 10-20x return on this idea. Also, check out my previous threads as they hold details that inform on other charts, and definitely check out my previous NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF ideas.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by EmptyEternity
8
Opening (IRA): TLT October 18th 84 Short Put... for a .98 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying. This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over time. Alternatively, it's a "hmm, I really need to get more BP deployed here because I don't really have shit on at the moment" sort of thing ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
3
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 23 - TLT - (7th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing Ishares 20+ Treasure Bond ETF (TLT), starting from the 6-Month chart. (For some reasons I read "Ishares" as "Israeli" XD.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Road_2_Funded
Stock Market vs Govt Bond Market. At the Dawn of ChangesIt's been 3 months or so since the late March quarter bullish exuberance took the stock market, Ethereum (ETHUSD), Bitcoin (BTCUSD), other crypto assets to their new 52-week and all-time highs. This is now changing, while the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have stopped making new highs, despite the fact that Roaring Kitty is once again deafening everyone with her phenomenal calls. Quite high inflation reports for the first quarter of 2024 became a kind of “cold shower” both for the market and for expectations of a possible reduction in interest rates, while the markets have been living this still unfulfilled dream for almost the last year and a half. The Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to adjust rates at its upcoming next meeting on June 11-12. In any case, the prospect of any immediate rate adjustments is estimated at a modest 0.1 percent. It has been nearly a year since the FOMC last raised the federal funds rate to its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% in July 2023. And while FOMC members have signaled that labor market weakness could force them to cut interest rates, the labor market remains broadly resilient and unemployment low. Fixed income markets are forecasting that September could be the first interest rate cut of the cycle. However, this is not certain as the estimated odds are currently around 50%. And again, these forecasts implied by the market can quickly adapt to economic news, and again - turn out to be unfulfilled dreams, just like the dreams of rate cuts that, as discussed above, markets have been living with for the last year and a half. The main technical chart is the ratio, between iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) that is similar to mostly known SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (SPY) on the one hand, and Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on the other hand. Both ETFs (IVV, TLT) were taken in "Total return" format. In technical terms, the graph indicates on Bullish upside channel, as right here we're near its upper line, exactly like 17 years ago in second quarter of 2007. Auxiliary RSI(14) chart indicates also that Stock/ Bond ratio is too overheated in favor to stocks. The idea should not be seen as a call for immediate action. However, it is wise to keep in mind that investing in stocks can seriously underperform Govt Bonds in the medium to long term.
AMEX:IVV
by Pandorra
While FED depends on Data NVDA stocks clearly predict Zero RatesNvidia reported another blowout earnings report in its first-quarter results, and its stock is soaring to record highs above $1,000 per share on Thursday. The company reported revenue and profit that surpassed analyst estimates and offered second-quarter revenue guidance that was well ahead of Wall Street's expectations. On top of that, the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and increased its quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per share. Wall Street analysts were impressed by the results, with a slew of price target increases hitting the tape this Thursday morning. Goldman Sachs (GS): "New products to drive sustained growth in Data Center" ⚡ Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the company delivered accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, with its Data Center business growing revenue at 427%. JP Morgan (JPM): "Demand continues to outstrip supply into CY25". ⚡ Analysts at JPMorgan said they were impressed that Nvidia is seeing more and more industries participate in the demand for its H100 AI chips. Bank of America (BA): "Now see $50+ EPS power in two years". ⚡ Analysts at Bank of America said Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report suggests a smooth transition to the company's next-generation Blackwell chips, and that's going to lead to massive revenue gains. Wedbush: "AI revolution just getting started" ⚡ Analysts at Wedbush said the "AI gold rush" is just getting started as a "tidal wave" of spending on AI chips hits the entire tech sector. Nonetheless, this story is a little bit another, rather than Goldilocks tales. With more than 25 years of NVDIA shares trading, and an amazing 237000 % profit since NVDA IPO inception in January, 1999, in nowadays it costs approximately as low as 0.20x to S&P500 stock index (SPX equal appr. to 5 (five) NVDA shares in this time). The main technical graph is a differentials exposure between 5 NVDA shares and SP500 index. Well.. there're you see 3 clear cases of NVDA shares advantage over the past 25 years: • Early 2000's when US Interest Rates turned Zero. • 2007-09 when US Interest Rates again turned Zero. • Early 2020's when US Interest Rates once again turned Zero. While FED officials depends on Data, maybe (just maybe) NVDA stocks indeed clearly predict deflationary winds and US Interest Rates at Zero again. Thanks for happy reading. 😎 Cheers, Pandorra
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Pandorra
Golden Doomsayer judgment is that inflation still highGold prices traded higher midafternoon on Wednesday as a report showed US inflation is still high. Gold for June delivery was last seen up, again near US$2,400 per ounce. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the April consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from March. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky. Notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 5.5% on an unadjusted, annual basis, a slowdown from March. The Shelter index (the largest US CPI component with near 32% weight) rose 0.4% month over month and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in core prices, according to the BLS. Sticky shelter inflation is largely to blame for higher core inflation readings, according to economists. In technical terms, Gold prices are on positive path, firmly above 26- and 52-weeks SMA, while 50/200-weekly SMA Golden Cross that occurred in 2017, still works pretty well, helps year after year to robust gain in yellow metal. Technical perspectives are near 2550 and 2800 per XAUUSD ounce in this time.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
1
🎲 Interest Rates. To Cut, or not to Cut. That is the questionJamie Dimon Sees ‘Lot of Inflationary Forces in Front of Us’, as in recent interview to Bloomberg JPMorgan CEO has warned for months that rates could stay high. Jamie Dimon said he’s still more worried about inflation than markets appear to be. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said significant price pressures continue to influence the US economy and may mean interest rates will be higher for longer than many investors are expecting. He cited costs linked to the green economy, re-militarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes and large fiscal deficits. “There are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us,” Dimon said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “The underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs Wednesday amid optimism over monetary policy easing after a measure of underlying US inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months. Dimon said that markets have been healthy for a while, but that doesn’t necessarily predict the future. “If you have higher rates and — God forbid — stagflation, you will see stress in real estate and leveraged companies, and private credit,” Dimon said. “Stocks are very high, and I think the chance of inflation staying high or rates going up are higher than people think,” the CEO said. “My view is whatever the world is pricing in for a soft landing, I think it’s probably half of that. I think the chances of something going wrong are higher than people think.” The CEO has been warning for months that inflation could be stickier than many investors are predicting, and wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that his bank is prepared for interest rates ranging from 2% to 8% “or even more.” Dimon said that “a lot of happy talk” is why markets aren’t pricing these elements in. Even though a bigger surprise would be higher rates, Dimon said that geopolitics could create the “main stress that we’re worried about” amid the impact those dynamics have on oil and gas prices, trade and alliances. With war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, tensions in North Korea and the use of nuclear blackmail, the geopolitical situation is “very tense,” he said. When it comes to China, the right thing for America is to “fully and deeply” engage, he said. Still, the fragile relationship between the two countries makes banking in the country — where Dimon said JPMorgan has roughly 1,500 multinational clients — a riskier prospect. “They’re not leaving China, so we’re going to serve our clients there, we’re just much more cognizant the risk is higher,” he said. “You look at China from a risk-reward basis, it used to be very good, it’s not so great any more.” Basel III The financial world has been in a heated debate over US proposals tied to what’s called the Basel III Endgame — an international regulatory overhaul initiated more than a decade ago in response to the financial crisis of 2008. US regulators have decided to adjust the original proposals following substantial backlash. Dimon reiterated his comments that the proposals are excessive. “I would love to know what the end game is,” Dimon said. “Regulators should answer the question: What do you want — How do you want the system to work?” Uncertainty pushes Gold prices (XAUUSD) more higher, later than The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the April consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from March. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky. Notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 5.5% on an unadjusted, annual basis, a slowdown from March. The Shelter index (the largest US CPI component with near 32% weight) rose 0.4% month over month and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in core prices, according to the BLS. Sticky shelter inflation that was one of the main reason of 2007-09 Financial crisis is largely to blame for higher core inflation readings, according to economists. The main technical graph is an inverted (normalized) chart for expected Federal funds rate at mid-March 2025, based on respective Mar'25 FedFunds Futures Contract (ZQH2025). Following the upside trend, as well as forming reversed Head-and-shoulders structure, the nearest target can be around 8 1/4 - 8 1/2 over the next 12 months. Historical backtest analyses says, this scenario is not a nonsense, as in early 1980s the difference between US 10-Year T-Bond rates and US Interest rate has been already hugely negative at similar market conditions (fighting against non-stop inflation). Let's see what is next in nowadays..
CBOT:ZQH2025
by Pandorra
TBT / TLT T Bill Inverse TreasuriesOn this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell. They are inverses of one another . What makes one go down will make the other go up and viceversa. By February 1, TBT bottomed out and the ratio reversed. The cycle took 3 months. On a lower time frame, cycling would be more frequent. At present, it would appear to be time to sell TLT and / or buy TBT What applies to the TBT /TLT ratio would also relate to TMV / TMF as a ratio.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLT Is Coming Into Key Support Within A Corrective DeclineTreasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and continuation higher back to 2024 highs. Just keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line near 92.00 region, while invalidation level remains at 82.45.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ew-forecast
1
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 83/August 16th 83 Short PutsComments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August. July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long duration trade that would potentially take time to work out, but ... yeesh, the weakness. Will look to roll out the most at risk strikes I've got in July (at the 86) and August (at the 85) at some point ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines