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TLT

Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks. A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week. Join in this great trade! TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mortdiggiddy
85
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit. Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls. My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
Lets See How Right Or How WrongLets see am I real right or real wrong? It's real nice to have ETH pump my head with the idea that I just know where it's headed but really which way is up and which way is down? I am still leaning to "down" but often my bag proves me wrong temporarily lol I am still iffy with the crazy a brewin? Reality is that many are just highly attracted to crazy soo.. There's that balled up into a unbridled Yearning for Earning in the DeFi & NFT space that is staying fed by that greed and booby traps galore. So time is the thing at play here. Being that I am not old father time himself we have to make a reasonable call and live by the moto "Time Is The Greatest Equalizer". Honestly I really do get nervous buying at these levels if were to really want to hold any crypto at these prices I'd be looking for the more unconventional route to accumulating other than just buying scalp prices.. Humm seems like a trend that can't die... What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains say "Cool! More Dollars now!" -No advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO" ""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by BradySWilliams
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment. Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it. A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio: Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65 Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45 Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07 Profit zone: ~$133 > x < ~$141 What I am planning: For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good. Mistakes I can point out immediately: I've chosen options too close to expiry I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement I may have opened too early just to have a position open Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs... Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns. Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose. Better picture because the preview is missing some items: % Compare of TLT and 30 year yield Personal Consumption What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NeoButane
5
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style. The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree. www.guggenheiminvestments.com www.youtube.com Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy. Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets. www.bloomberg.com SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing. www.ft.com There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji. Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%. Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by StockSniper00
5
To Me Its Just That "One" Move...Its just the way Bitcoin moves gets me seeing the dollar. Really, It reminds me so much of the dollar. Oh speaking of which how'd y'all feel about that assertion of strength that the DXY had today? Hate it or love it DXY looks like the Nerd in the cafeteria that knows he won't be giving up his lunch money. It's happened one too many time and enough might really be enough now. LOL Let the Assets laugh all they'd like this Nerd knows he'll rule the world. LOL What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains say "Cool! More Dollars now!" -No advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO" ""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradySWilliams
2