TLT Pivotal Equality Test UnderwayIn this update we review the recent price action in TLT and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
TLT
TLT - Another Month of Wreckage 7/7 Due007s who bought the dip...
Ripped.
It's now a comedy and further evidence...
Throwing Capital into a toxic cesspool does not produce
a Hulk, Spiderman, or Marvel Character who defies the laws
of common sense.
Buy this Chart and LOSE.
SPY, BONDS & FED BALANCE-SHEET - (zoomed)A place to view T-Yields, Fed Funds, and Money Supply against TLT and the SP500 .
SPY, BONDS & FED BALANCE-SHEETA place to view T-Yields, Fed Funds, and Money Supply against TLT and the SP500.
$TLT ~ Lower lows as expected...We was looking for a 5th wave and it appears we are getting it. Once 61.8 is reached, will need to monitor to see if it holds or we continue pushing lower to the 78.6. Seems there are few safe assets these days as liquidity is drying up.
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling.
The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes!
The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure.
Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly.
You can't fix stupid.
The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin.
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Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out.
TLT will head to Sub 52.
You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would.
And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why.
DX back to 125?
Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first.
TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
$TLT ~ Expecting one more leg down then ready to run...Expecting bonds to push one more time lower as shown to complete its wave 5. Once complete may be a very interesting opportunity.
$TLT weekly on watch$TLT has seen multiple touches of the 114.30 level that have resulted in a reversal. Would keep your eyes on $TLT heading into the weekend. This Bond ETF Offers Bears An Alternative due to its inverse correlation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). The fund tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 20 years or more.
Rates Back Down with Growth SlowingTPs of 125 and 130 seem reasonable with massive growth deceleration coming. Maybe even ~140
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114
accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked.
The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between.
5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011.
Not trading advice
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields.
The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments.
Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end.
Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into
expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve.
Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon.
My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
$TLT 15 year channelHere's another perfect long term channel. It is a log chart of $TLT. I am long $TMF (3x leveraged ETF ). No price target yet as I want to see how this whole thing plays out.
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash.
The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market.
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ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion.
ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should
The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will
intervene heavily.
Macro Data Ahead:
MONDAY, MAY 16
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May
TUESDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April
9:15 am Industrial production index April
9:15 am Capacity utilization April
10 am NAHB home builders' index May
10 am Business inventories (revision) March
WEDNESDAY, MAY 18
8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April
8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May
THURSDAY, MAY 19
8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7
10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April
FRIDAY, MAY 20
8:30 am Advance services report Q1
TLT - 2 Hour PThe 20 Year ETF Bond has declined significantly in 2022.
Longer-term I anticipate 6% as the Primary PO for the 10 Year
Note.
TLT will head well below 100 into October 2023, breaking 92s
will provide an immediate break - an immense break.
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Sub 50 is an absolute on Mid Curve to 6%.
Declining from 173.69 to 112.62 is simply the 1st in a Series of
lower lows ahead.
I do, however, anticipate a counter-trend to 2.12 to 2.26.
TLT remains the JUNK ETF, chased by the inexperienced traders
seeking safety.
Hopefully, this herd is beginning to see the Cliff ahead as the
Bond Buffalo will be run up the plains mesa to their ultimate
deaths.
132 should limit the Upside ST.
$AGG - US bonds ready for a bounce?I think we are quite close to seeing a bounce in US Bond ETF's. With the 10 year falling back under 3.0% and bond charts in general showing lots of divergency between price and indicators, i think we can get a bit of a bounce here. Also some good volume coming in on the AGG US bond etf which shows interest emerging.
TLT's Death DomeVery bullish if you turn the chart upside down. It has clearly made a major top. Due for a bounce soon but it will only be a temporary reprieve before much higher long term interest rates are seen.
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.
TLT - The Vesper
"Three measures of Gordon's, one of Vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet."
Best not to drink and drive, ya may just run into supthin...
OR...
FSD could end up taking you for a Ride.
Sh_t happens.
Hubris and the inability to compromise... lead to lots of Blood and Broken Glass.
TLT: Bonds ready for a big bounce?TLT (20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)
Huge drop since January 2022.
If you connect all the big lows since 2013 and draw a line you will notice that TLT is now sitting on a huge support and has starting to bounce off the 119 level (Green line).
RSI weekly and daily oversold.
Let's see if we can get a decent bounce.
I'm long April 29 call. We can target 125, then maybe 130.
Stop loss at 119.
Trade safe
All Treasury Yields - Convergence at highs = lows comingPut together a chart to illustrate what happens when government treasury yields converge at the same amount at a market peak.
They consistently roll over and tank.
When yields tank, bonds go up in value.
Looks like a good spot to pick up some TLT.
