APPLE on key Resistance. Failure to break can result to $150.Apple Inc (AAPL) has been on an incredible +35% rise since the June 16 Low. It is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1W RSI broke last week above the 60.00 barrier for the first time since February 08. However despite the positives, here comes the most important Resistance test of all that will largely determine entering a new Bull Cycle or staying inside the 2022 Bear.
That is the Lower Highs trend-line of the January 03 All Time High (ATH). As you see, Apple hit that trend-line also on March 29 and got rejected. A similar pattern was last seen in late 2018 - early 2019 at the peak of the U.S. - China trade war. If we apply a similar Lower Highs trend-line, we see that the Jan- April 2019 rally failed to break it and got rejected back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the next double test broke above it into a new Bull Phase.
In a similar fashion, we expect Apple to have a strong rally if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, but if rejected, test the 0.5 Fib which is at $150.00. Notice the importance of the Death/ Golden Cross formations but more importantly the symmetrical Resistance/ Support levels of the 1W RSI between 2019 and today. This can be an additional roadmap of rejection and where to buy then.
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Techstocks
NDXZooming out, NDX looks strong, as per EW rules the 5th wave must match the 1st wave in both time and %.
That said fomo can obviously send the 5th much higher and also terminate the trend earlier.
But for now in respect to the fact that EW is not a crystal ball ,
I would say that since I am counting the 4th wave finished on the week June 13th 2022 the bulls have until July 2023 to finish the 5th wave at my projected target of 18,600.
(not accounting for any Fomo)
Also I expect a correction soon back to 12,300 or there about to make the LTF daily chart W2.
TESLA on a wild rise just as expected a month agoOur last analysis on Tesla (TSLA) was exactly 1 month ago, where we stated the importance of breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line in order to initiate a rally:
As you see, the Double Bottom accurately signaled the end of the correction and the break above the Lower Highs, the start of a new rally. The rally is technically the sequence to a new Lower High of the long-term pattern on Tesla which has been a Channel Down since November 04. The price has now turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and on the short-term is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a symmetrical sequence by all means to the previous rebound to the top of the Channel Down last March and those similarities have helped as projected this move. On the long-term we are targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the previous Low would invalidate this and instead signal a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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NasdaqI think we are in an ending diagonal within the primary 4th wave position. Inside of the larger intermediate ABC.
LTF daily chart looks like we have lost the lower TL of the ending diagonal in what should become an overthrow on the weekly TF.
Currently working on the Z wave which is the strongest wave of the WXYXZ pattern which usually sends the price up or down depending on whether or not the WXYXZ pattern is bullish or bearish.
After wave Z a strong reversal hits. This is what my chart implies.
NASDAQ about ready to breakoutAn interesting week went by, one with ups and downs and all around. The week ended with a long lower tail in the weekly candlestick. This we know, indicates bullishness. The daily chart shows how this came about, with a doji on Wednesday, and then a higher low retest followed by a nice uptick on Friday. These moves bounced off a support level, as well as clock in a second higher low (after technical bounce was expected previously). The weekly technical indicators crossed up recently, and the daily technical indicators show mild bullish build in the MACD, and less so in the RPM.
Taken together, it appears that a bullish break out is imminent for the coming week. If this happens, then we are looking at a higher probability for July to close higher at about 13,500.
Watch the next few days, it should show hand...
AMAZON Generational Bottom and buy opportunityAmazon (AMZN) has been trading within the MA300 (red trend-line) and MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for more than 2 months. In multi-year terms, this is the equivalent of a bottom formation within the Bullish Channel that started after the bottom of the Dotcom crash in September 2001.
More specifically, the 1W MA300 hasn't been touched since January 2009 (bottom of the housing crisis) and the last time a (Higher) Low was formed within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels (Fib Channel applied on the pattern) was within October 2014 - January 2015.
With the 1W RSI rebounding after breaking inside its multi-decade Buy Zone (has done so only another 3 times in 21 years) and the 1W LMACD inevitably about to make a Bullish Cross, this seems like a golden multi-year buy opportunity for Amazon. The Higher High target has been the 0.786 Fibonacci level since late 2018.
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MICROSOFT Targeting $285 short-termMicrosoft (MSFT) is about to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 3rd time since June 27. A new break should be a confirmation of that being the new Lower High rebound. The previous targeted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this is now over the Channel Down a little above 285.00.
We believe this might be the start to an even bigger and more sustainable rise as certain long-term indicators have been aligned on Support levels:
* First, the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows.
* Second, the 1W MACD inevitably will form a Bullish Cross, the first since October 27 2021.
* Third, the 1M MA30 (yellow trend-line) supported the previous Low, right on the Higher Lows trend-line that started back in September 18 2020.
As mentioned the 285.00 is just below the 0.618 Fib, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) might be by the time it tests it, for the ultimate Resistance test.
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AAPLE holding the 1D MA50, targeting 158 short-term.Apple (AAPL) had a very strong 1D green candle yesterday, rebounding off the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the Resistance since April 21, turning it into the Support. The break-out took place after the RSI on the 1W time-frame broke above its MA line on the widest margin since January 04. With the 1W MACD about to make the first Bullish Cross since November 18 2021, this could be the long-term buy signal that the market has been waiting for, for a sustainable recovery.
The technical short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at around 158.00. The Fibonacci retracement levels can provide the next targets and pull-back/ buy levels. Overall the stock has the potential to reach its All Time High level before the end of the year.
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Datatec at an area of valueJSE:DTC reached a 52-week high today, it also broke above a resistance level. If you zoom into the monthly time frame you'll see that it's near a potential resistance as well, old resistance level. I'm bullish on JSE:DTC on D/W time frames, the resistance level could be an issue but it's an old level.
Nasdaq-100 May Have Signs of a Bullish TurnA painful half is finished for the Nasdaq-100. Now there could be signs of a turn.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the 11,069 level. NDX peaked in that area in July 2020 and bounced there 3-1/2 months later. The index returned to hold the same support in mid-June 2022.
Second, notice how prices held about 2.6 percent above that low in the past week. Could it be a higher low , after six miserable months of lower lows ? Some technicians may view that as a potential sign of the bearish trend fading.
Third, NDX probed below Friday’s low yesterday before rallying back above its high. That kind of outside candle is a potential bullish reversal pattern.
Next, this chart includes two of our custom scripts: Distance from MA and MA streak . Both are plotted using the 10-day simple moving average (SMA).
The line chart shows how last month’s low was the lowest versus the 10-day SMA since the nadir of the coronavirus crash in March 2020.
The histogram illustrates how the 10-day SMA has frequently shifted direction since that oversold condition. It could be another sign of the trend running its course and losing cohesion.
Earnings season is around the corner, bond yields are slipping and commodities are falling. Those macro changes could also be potentially favorable for the Nasdaq -- especially considering the pain caused by inflation earlier this year.
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NASDAQ - Not yetAs outlined in the S&P500 weekly analysis. the technical bounce appears delayed. At the least, it looks like a higher low is being made, and would take another week or two before a higher high is achieved.
In light of these, the projection and targets have been adjusted to the end of July.
NASDAQ technical bounce as expectedPreviously, with a hit on target, a technical bounce was expected, and the end of last week... it happened!
The NASDAQ weekly is leading the charge with an overwhelming bullish candle for the week. MACD histograms are thinning out and weekly MACD are about to cross over.
Using the simple arrows, projections bring the NASDAQ to 13,600 where it should meet the weekly 55EMA.
The daily chart shows a clear break out to the HULL moving average, and has MACD crossed over already. The week ended with a bullish marubozu.
Bullish clearly...
Descending Channel Breakout for ADN?!?It appears as though ADN has broken flush to the upside of a descending channel which is drawn as two parallel declining lines drawn green on the chart, notice the rejection nearly exactly at the 200DMA.
On the KST there's a bullish cross where I've placed the green finger. More often than not when the KST gets this over-extended there's a sell-off immediately afterward with the rare exception of a continuation of s parabolic breakout on overwhelmingly bullish news.
A retrace to $1.40 is likely to re-test and build support on top of old resistance.
Or we're going to see a re-test of the 200DMA and a blue sky breakout.
Price target & trading range between $9.00 to $0.60c between now and the end of the year.
NASDAQ hit interim downside target, now what?As previously projected, the NASDAQ pushed further down in the last week, and with expected momentum, to hit the target in good time.
The daily chart shows the weekly action much clearer as the immediate resistance at 11725 failed and a quick drop ensued. The week did not follow through to end in downward momentum but instead clocked a small bullish harami. While unclear now, a technical bounce might be in the cards in the following week, and should show if it is happening by about mid-week.
Nasdaq: Bear is In-ChargeA typical characteristic of a bull market as seen is its significant highs are higher and its lows are higher.
However, the market has confirmed moving into bear when the market broke below the major uptrend on the 3rd week of 2022.
Now we could see the Bear is in-charge. And a typical characteristic of a bear market as seen is its significant highs are lower and its lows are lower.
Before 2022, my strategy was to buy on dips. However, starting this year when the major uptrend line was broken below, my focus now is to sell into strength when opportunity arises. Of course fundamentals also play a big part when Jerome Powell mentioned in December 2021 that U.S. inflation is "not transitory". Then we all know the Fed was preparing the environment for more interest rate hikes in 2022 and maybe beyond.
When things change, our strategy changes.
NASDAQ really fizzles?Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ jumped after bouncing off a support level and tested the 13K resistance... which appeared to have failed, given the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick ending to the week. The daily technicals do not yet tell of a down slope slip, but it should be following through. And if it does, then we have this Down Friday Down Monday thingy... means more downside to come.
The Weekly chart ended with a a candlestick that seem to stall the previous bullish candle. The weekly technicals are slightly bullish divergent.
Taken together, appears that we can expect some downside risk to the last low, probably see a higher low within the week, if at all.
The range is going to be a little wider than usual, until this consolidates out nicely and a new trend starts. So, let's see.
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ is not yet done with downward momentumThe dead cat bounce only lasted a couple of days, and it gave way soon and very quickly yesterday (pre-market). This breakdown was with decent downside momentum, and was also off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as observed in the 4H intraday chart above.
By projecting forward using simple geometric extensions combined with Fibs, 10,800 is the next downside target (yellow arrows), which could happen swiftly or drag another week. Honestly, do not know which is worse.
In another view, we see a range from 12565 to 11700, which the latter would attempt to provide some support (aqua arrows). Breaking down and out of this range, similarly points to circa 10,800, but in a more swift take down.
Daily technicals employed here support the downside momentum and targets.
So, look for support early-mid next week, if we get a new intraday low, yeah?
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king.
1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down.
2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside.
3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend.
4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800
5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow.
6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically.
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NASDAQ in technical rebound - a bull trap?The NASDAQ (and other equities indexes) closed the week on a strong rebound, having reached a lower support (11700). The resulting weekly candlestick is one with a long lower tail, suggesting a possible test to regain the 13K level.
The daily chart closed the highest for the week, and similarly projects a somewhat cautious bullish outlook for the incoming week. I would be wary for sudden turnarounds, especially near the resistance levels, or when prices are near the declining 55EMA.
The weekly technicals are still intact for the downside target of 11K.
Be wary!