Support and Resistance
$DOGEHello Shibs, hope you still HODL Dogecoin. Thi the accumulation part, market correcting itself for another run. Bitcoin also down today, keep that in mind. A crucial support level I’m looking at is .35 to close above in the daily. If that breaks buckle up, and HODL.
Dogecoin was recently attacked, and hacked. “Exploited a vulnerability called “DogeReaper” crashing 69% of nodes. A fix was quickly deployed, and network’s functionality was not severely impacted.” Which makes me to believe a lot of people are panic selling. How could you sell DOGE? It’s literally the Department of Goverment Effeciency!!
Anyways, don’t panic sell. DOGE TO DA MOON!
Stock Of The Day / 12.18.24 / NUKK12.18.2024 / NASDAQ:NUKK
Fundamentals. Second day of growth on the news of the acquisition.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Exit upwards from the annual accumulation.
Premarket: Range movement on increased volume.
Main session: We observe a confident upward movement at the beginning of the session after holding the previous day's high level 17.66. After acceleration and the formation of the top of 34.00, the price begins to tighten to the level of 23.00 against the upward movement. We consider a long trade to continue the movement in case the structure of the tightening is broken upward.
Trading scenario: #pullback along the trend (#false tightening) to the level 23.00
Entry: 24.45 on the breakout of the tightening structure and an upward exit on increased volume.
Stop: 22.69 we hide behind the level with a reserve for slippage.
Exit: Close part of the position before the level of 34.00 (RR1/5), close the rest of the position on the return candle after the trading halted at 1:30 p.m. (RR 1/15).
Trade potential: 1/15
P.S. Today's has shown a clear advantage of trading "In Play" stocks. Despite the fact that the market fell by 3%, NUKK did not notice this and continued to go one's own way, demonstrating significant growth and a very technical nature of the movement.
NZD/USD looking very bearish over the longer termLooking at the 6 month candlesticks, whereby each candlestick represents 6 months of price action, every time this pair has put in a bottom it has done so relatively quickly and started an uptrend. The past 4 years have been different though.
It has been testing the .55 level since 2020. The Covid Rally was formidable but it came right back down in 2022 and has not caught a strong bid. This presents a bearish case in my opinion. If it were to put in a massive rally from here that would be very anomalous from a price action perspective.
.55 doesn't offer as strong a historical support as .50(ish) does. If this pair trades down and breaks the 2020 lows it will quickly go to .50 with strong follow-through.
Side note: are we really to ignore the massive multi decade head and shoulders pattern is has formed? I will not. This pair is headed down below .50 by next year sometime in my opinion.
Gold Wave Analysis 18 December 2024
- Gold under bearish pressure
- Likely to fall to support level 2555.00
Gold under the bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the key support level 2617,00 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from November).
The breakout of the support level 2617,00 stopped the earlier impulse wave 3 of the higher order impulse wave (5) from last month.
Gold can be expected to fall further to the next support level 2555.00 (which stopped the earlier medium-term correction (4) in November).
NZDUSD Wave Analysis 18 December 2024
- NZDUSD broke long-term support level 0.5770
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5500
NZDUSD currency pair earlier broke below the long-term support level 0.5770 (which acted as the lower border of the weekly sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the start of 2023).
The breakout of the support level 0.5770 accelerated the active impulse wave C of extended downward ABC correction (2) from last year.
NZDUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.5500 (former multiyear low from 2022 and the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
CN50 to see a temporary move higher?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Buying pressure from 13255 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13705 level.
We look to Sell at 13705 (stop at 13875)
Our profit targets will be 13220 and 13070
Resistance: 13695 / 14320 / 15090
Support: 13070 / 12180 / 11050
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GOLD Consolidation Ahead of Key Fed DecisionGold Technical Analysis
Gold continues to consolidate between 2,638 and 2,653, awaiting a breakout. Currently, the price may attempt to test 2,638, and a 4-hour candle close below this level would confirm a bearish trend, with a target of 2,623. Conversely, stability above 2,653 would support a bullish move, with a potential target of 2,665.
Today's Fed rate decision will significantly impact the market. A 0.25% rate cut would likely have a bullish effect. However, the key focus will be on Powell's remarks during the meeting—if he signals further rate cuts in the next meeting, this could strongly support a bullish trend.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2645
Resistance Levels: 2653, 2665, 2678
Support Levels: 2635, 2623, 2612
Bearish Momentum: Below 2,638
Bullish Momentum: Above 2,653
Price Retest Scenarios and Key Levels for Trend ConfirmationTechnical Analysis
The price has surged to a new historic high. It is now expected to retest 21900. A confirmed 4-hour candle close below 21900 will indicate a bearish move toward 21770.
On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 22120 with a confirmed 1-hour candle close, it will support a bullish trend toward 22230.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 22120
Resistance Levels: 22230, 22400, 22510
Support Levels: 21900, 21770, 21620
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish Momentum with stability below 22120
- Bullish Momentum by stability above 22120
US30 / Consolidation Ahead of Key Breakout LevelsTechnical Analysis
The price has reached the support level we mentioned earlier and is now consolidating between 43,350 and 43,765 until a breakout occurs. Initially, the price may attempt to test 43,760 or 43,900, driven by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut. However, it is also possible for the price to drop again, potentially breaking the support zone at 43,350.
A break below 43,350 and 43,200 would confirm a bearish trend, with further downside targets at 42,900 and 42,770.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43580
Resistance Levels: 43765, 43900, 44070
Support Levels: 43350, 43210, 42900
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Possible within the consolidation range of 43,350 to 43,900
PREVIOUS IDEA:
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Market Reaction to Fed Rate DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The Fed Rate Decision is Coming Today!
The market is expected to be volatile due to the Fed’s rate decision, with a potential decrease of 25 basis points.
As mentioned earlier this week, the S&P 500 has been following a bullish trend, pushing up from 6022. Today, the index is likely to attempt to reach 6099. If it successfully breaks above 6100, it would confirm a bullish zone, with the potential to climb further toward 6143, especially if the Fed reduces rates by 25 bps.
On the other hand, failure to maintain momentum above 6099 could result in the index trading between 6099 and 6022. A bearish trend could begin if 6099 is broken on the downside.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6099
Resistance Levels: 6143, 6166, 6190
Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
Trend Outlook:
Upward Trend: Above 6099
Downward Trend: Below 6022
previous idea:
NASDAQ 100 - kiss and say good byeAfter years of solid growth, the signs for distribution beetween bulls and bears has arrived.
Shares are changing the hand, from investors to speculants. And I suppose extreme speculatants. There are some players on market which are preparing an extreme short selling.
Technical side, there a enough signs to say good bye and change the river side, from long to short.
11 th of dec: open to short NDX @ 21715.87
Dan, 11th dec 2024
NZDUSD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.99
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
Gold Analysis==>>PumpingToday, U.S. Retail Sales figures were released. Retail sales increased by 0.7% , surpassing the forecast of 0.6% . However, Core Retail Sales rose by only 0.2% , below the anticipated 0.4% .
These figures indicate continued strength in U.S. consumer spending, which can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) . A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for international investors when the dollar appreciates.
However, it's important to note that multiple factors influence gold prices, including upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and global economic conditions.
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Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) continued to fall as I expected and is currently moving through the Support zone($2,642-$2,620) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing wave 5 .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Gold to start rising again from the PRZ and Support lines and attack the Resistance lines .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Support zone($2,642-$2,620), we can expect more dumps.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level.
SPY 2 year trend channel levels:
resistance = 605
pivot = 585
support = 565
trade ideas:
1) collar strategy
hold 100 shares
sell 585 call
buy 605 put
2) buy 605 put
3) short call spread
sell 585 call
buy 605 call
4) long put spread
buy 605 put
sell 585 put
SPY options data:
12/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 219,329
Call Volume Total 125,297
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75
Put Open Interest Total 750,130
Call Open Interest Total 233,054
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22
12/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 69,042
Call Volume Total 43,893
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57
Put Open Interest Total 317,687
Call Open Interest Total 228,869
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39
12/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 336,702
Call Volume Total 139,171
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42
Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537
Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29
12/27/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 13,062
Call Volume Total 14,931
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87
Put Open Interest Total 72,224
Call Open Interest Total 59,538
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21
1/17/25 LEAPS
Put Volume Total 191,268
Call Volume Total 63,574
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01
Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812
Call Open Interest Total 855,976
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView:
It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day.
Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels.
IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040.
The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies.
Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators:
Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile.
This brings up a point that often comes up:
“How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?”
There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you.
For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself.
Test Case Chosen:
8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread
Max Loss: $216
Max Profit: $1,685
PoP: 45%
Why not?