XAU-USD (GOLD)The price of gold trades in descending triangle. the support is in the 1990-1992 range. Due to the war gold is in a bullish trend and this is some retracement level and target mentioned in the chart.
Supply_and_demand
Will Russell 2000 Lose 24% of Value?Russell 2000 Testing key level. Would make sense to get a bounce from here, but the 2 year downtrend clearly shows bear pressure. If we break 159 next target is 145
If we get back inside of the triangle, I think this analysis is invalid and we might continue upwards
ps. This is weekly chart so this will take time unless we get some kind of catalyst
Active Trades GOLD , DYDX and XRP
-PalenTrade
Livent corporation Elliott wave projectionProjection based on Elliott wave theory, support and resistance as well as supply and demand.
Buy area is 14,3-15,7 with right price action on daily and weekly with target above all time high.
SPY- Bearish- UpdatePosting another quick update here on the SPY as a lot has transpired in financial markets over the past few months, yet buyer and selling continue to dictate the price action in my opinion. On the 4-hour timeframe, the SPY is oversold and has formed a bullish ABCD Elliot wave, while also holding a falling wedge within a bearish megaphone.
On the daily timeframe, the SPY has formed a bearish head and shoulders (Pictured Below) and has broken below its 200-day SMA. The weekly timeframe depicts two bearish megaphones as well, with the SPY having held within the larger of the two since November of 2021. Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged, and staying cash.
--Previous Charts Attached In Description --
SPY Daily Timeframe
SPY - Daily - Bearish
- Head and Shoulders (Bearish)
- Broke Below the 200-day SMA
- Sitting on the Covid-19 Trendline Support
SPY 4-HOUR Timeframe
- Oversold on the RSI
- Bullish ABCD Harmonic Pattern
- Falling Wedge Within a Bearish Megaphone
- Sitting on the Covid-19 Trendline Support
--Previously Charted--
XAUUSD GOING LONG AND SHORTHi guys I'm back updating my gold scenario.
In my yesterday analysis, I highlighted area 1954 as a supply level , being tested multiple times was broken during Mr. Powell speech. leaving us with only one immediate area ,1978 as a supply zone. But since underlying fundamentals are bullish I need to confirm my entry in lower time frames to go short otherwise it's kind of risky. Should price get through the area I'm expecting 2004 area as another sell zone.
Our immediate demand area is around 1970-1972 which has proven itself once. Going long from this demand level like always requires checking lower time frames for further confirmation.
Below our immediate demand level we have 1962 which is the broken resistance and could support the price should get there.
Make sure you have these levels on your chart and do your own assessment while taking any trades.
Be honorable
AUDUSD... a Buy-To-Sell idea (that's working out so far!)The buying part is already in progress/profit).
What next?
Watch the video and leave a comment.
Ask your questions, and I promise to respond to all of them.
Consider subscribing to my channel. You will only improve your trading. ; )
XAUUSD LONG AND SHORT SETUPHi Guys,
I'm going to update my analysis on gold. Yesterday after touching our demand level at 1964 price rallied up more than 200 PIPS which was absolutely amazing. Now today I'm back with new setups.
Area 1979 - 1977 is an fresh area which has not been touched yet so price could react to it and give us a good trade. If price passes through that next area would be 1974-1971 which has been tested once yesterday and has already proven itself.
if rallying up continues resistance level 2001 is gonna be the first level to monitor and following that we have 2010 -2022 as a H4 time frame supply level.
So currently, best course of action is to wait and see how price responds to our intended areas of supply and demand. I also will keep you updated of my thoughts on this analysis.
Be honorable
Simple analysis (GOLD)hello traders:
Today I will show you how to draw supply and demand with support, resistance and order block. If you have any questions, welcome.
TrendCloud E-Mini SystemThis is a backtested and optimized trading system for trading the E-Mini contracts.
You can also trade the entire futures market with the TrendCloud System.
Let's go over this winning trade together.
Wheat Short4 hour TrendCloud Crossover
1 hour TrendCloud downtrend
30 min supply zone.
CCI is slightly against us but we are taking a 1% risk on this trade to the downside for a 2:1 target.
GOLD Trading ScenarioHi guys, I'm back with another gold analysis. Price yesterday surged from the 1954 demand area(in last analysis) all the way to 1976 which exist a supply zone. Currently price has been under the 1976 supply area and has tested it multiple times already.
If you pay a close attention there is a hidden demand area "1970-1968" which is only evident in lower time frame and price has already consumed that too. So should price fall it could test 1954 area for the second time but bear in mind since the first movement has not made a new high 1954 area becomes too risky to trade and needs confirmation.
Above that we have 1964 area as a intermediary demand level which again I need to consult the lower time frame should I take a trade there.
Be honorable
NZDUSD LONG AND SHORT Scenario Hi guys.
This time I'll be looking into NZDUSD. The Currency has been rallying up since yesterday and today reached our supply area for the second time. Last reaction to the zone was considerably good and this time could same happen. In addition to the supply area we have the broken support which turned into resistance. So with these clues going short it's advisable. But later this afternoon it's going to be a news related to dollar which could impact our analysis so make sure you are monitoring price behavior.
Should price go down we have a broken resistance around 0.5836 which could support the selling off and lead to a reaction. Below it the demand area should also be closely monitored for a secure entry.
If price continues further up then multiple other supply areas could be potential short setups or exit point for long trades. Make sure you do your own assessment prior to taking any trades.
Be honorable
Bullish continuation1) EURUSD is on a daily retracement, which means that there's a good probability that the H4 will continue higher until it reaches a daily supply area.
2) H4 Structure is bullish and despite the strong reaction to the supply at the top, buyers already pushed the price up and it retraced more than 50% of the last move.
3) If price breaks the level around 1.0534, it will increase the chances for a deeper pullback to 1.0472.
4) Until then, buyers are in control and the goal is to follow demand. 📈
XAUUSD SUPPLY AND DEMAND Hi Guys, I'm back with another analysis on gold, In my previous analysis I had 1972 area as a buy zone which this morning reaction happened and on it's way back, area was breached leading to a hidden demand area at 1964 which indeed considerable reaction happened there. Second time coming back there you could take a trade provided that lower time frame confirms the entry.
Just above the 1964, in lower time frame area 1968 is still a demand zone which trades could be taken there if price gets there. In addition to our immediate demand levels we have others below should price get there appropriate action will be taken.
On the sell side we have area 1993 as a sell side zone, again considering market sentiment it is advised to check lower time frame for a confirmed entry.
Be Honorable
#OIL buying opportunityConsidering the recent bullish momentum in the oil market, characterized by a clear market structure of establishing higher highs and higher lows while respecting to a short-term bullish channel, we anticipate that oil prices will rise from their current low, as depicted on the chart.
In addition to the bullish channel, there are other bullish indicators on the chart. Notably, the 1-hour 200EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has consistently provided strong support during this recent bullish phase. Every time the price has approached this EMA, it has turned upwards.
Furthermore, the current price level is situated within a 4-hour demand area, which further enhances the possibility of a bullish movement.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#GBPCAD selling opportunityHello, traders and friends.
Let's analyze the GBPCAD chart, where we believe there might be a compelling selling opportunity.
In the Daily timeframe, you can see that the price has already broken the market structure to the downside. Since the low formed on September 28th, we've been in what we believe is a bullish corrective phase. Consequently, we are now interested in a selling position.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, we notice a double top formation that resulted in a lower low, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation, aligning with our higher time frame daily trend. Following this, the price has been moving upwards in a bullish corrective manner, forming a short-term rising channel. Last week, this channel also broke to the downside.
In our view, this recent bullish movement resembles a liquidity-taking activity, and we are keen to observe any rejections from the level marked by the arrow on the chart, with the intent to consider selling.
Additionally, we have identified several resistance factors within a small zone, including the 4-hour and daily timeframe 200EMA, a supply area in the 4-hour timeframe, and the previous high where many traders have placed their stop-loss orders just above it. This presents an opportunity for banks to potentially extract liquidity.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
XAU-USD (GOLD)The price of gold currently traded at 1977. And the last high is 1997, if price break the resistance directly then gold price further go up 2040 1TP, 2075 2TP. but in case of some retracement price go down ant 1950-1955. and then 1930-1915 that is most demand zones, then further go up. that's mention in chart.
BTC-USD (BITCOIN)The price of btc traded at 30950. And the resistance at 31600, also have supply zone. Market stay there and the down to 28500, that is demand zone. And create a faire higher-high, higher -low pattern.
USDZMW SHORT Market traded straight back into the monthly supply zone. Even though this trade idea is about a short back to 15 it will generally take a whole lot of fundamentals to play in favor of ZMW. I personally expect market to stabilize in this zone. Market closing above 22.6 on the monthly Time Frame is not what we want to see as it would trickle to market creating new highs ...... FX_IDC:USDZMW
#supply&demandtrading
EURUSD: Lower time frame act needed.Hello traders,
Since it's Friday and regarding instability in the middle east that could be spread to the world, we decide to set a mid-term trade!
Fundamentally EURUSD is going to be bullish:
There are no basic data releases during the American session, so all attention will be on the speeches of FOMC members Patrick T. Harker and Loretta Mester. Given that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear yesterday that no one expects to hike rates suddenly, it is unlikely that we will hear anything new from them this week that they haven't already indicated.
So EURUSD might be bullish in next days, the only setback is weekly R1 in the week of trend changing, if we are really in a trend-changing-week, R1 and S1 could be stronger than in a trending week!
Long-term technically:
EURUSD has formed new HH and HL
To do:
Wait for liquidity hunt! If the 1.0549 has been touched, wait for bullish CHOCH or BMS, then put your Entry point around the bullish OB+!
SL is better to be around 1.0505 ( may be some pipets lower)
TP could be below the 1.0600
You better close most of your position before weekend!
Best regards, @AliSignals
#Nikkei buying opportunitHello, traders and friends. I hope you all doing well.
Let's delve into NIKKEI chart and explore why we believe there may be a potential Buying opportunity.
The three-wave bearish corrective nature of this downward leg, following a bullish impulsive wave we observed on the chart, suggests the possibility of another bullish move, potentially testing at least the upper boundary of our longer-term bearish trendline channel.
Supportive confluences that we have observed include the inner trendline, which has acted as both resistance and support multiple times, indicating traders' awareness of its significance. Additionally, the price has reached a static support line and a demand area from above, both of which serve as important support levels. Furthermore, the price retraced around 50% of the Fibonacci level of the last bullish move.
Additionally, we've observed the formation of a 4-hour bullish engulfing candle, which can be seen as a trigger for this potential buying setup.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
#GBPJPY Selling opportunityHello, traders and friends. I hope you are all doing well.
Let's delve into GBPJPY and explore why we believe there may be a potential selling opportunity.
As you can observe, the price has been in a bearish channel for the past few weeks, consistently reacting near the upper boundary.
This pattern suggests the possibility of a repetition, offering another favorable selling opportunity.
Apart from the bearish channel's upper boundary, we have additional factors supporting a bearish scenario. These include a supply area and a liquidity pool located just above the horizontal arrow line. Price could potentially move into this area, clear out liquidity, and then trend lower.
For us to consider taking this position, we would need to see a fake breakout above the arrow line, followed by a failure of the price to close above it.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment.
Could the premium get even beefier?
In a previous article, "A Beefy Premium" , we delved into the growing divergence between Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Since then, this disparity has only broadened.
Currently, we're seeing a historic peak in both the absolute price difference (Live Cattle – Lean Hog) and the price ratio (Live Cattle/Lean Hog). To comprehend the drivers of this divergence, we need to explore the fundamentals of each sector.
Beef:
USDA economists, Russell Knight and Hannah Taylor, have noted that the repercussions of drought are still impacting calf production. The twin challenges of poor pastures and dwindling hay supplies have made it difficult for farmers to sustain their breeding stock. This has prompted a surge in beef cow culling. With anticipated feed price reductions on the horizon, we predict a tilt towards placing more calves into feedlots in 2024, constricting the cattle supply even further.
Interestingly, despite the tightening cattle supply, demand remains robust. Beef cutout prices reached a pinnacle in October, with prices generally maintaining historic highs on a monthly scale. Seasonally, prices are also expected to rise slightly going into November due to a holiday boost.
A possible explanation for this sustained demand might be the surge in US wages. Empowered with heftier paychecks, consumers are more able to splurge on beef, ensuring packers to keep up their slaughter pace.
Pork:
On the hog front, this quarter reflects a modest uptick in inventory. In contrast to the cattle market, the decline in headcounts here isn’t as pronounced.
A noteworthy correlation emerges between lean hogs and soybean meal. With soybean meal being a staple in animal feed production, its price directly influences producer margins. Factors like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US droughts, and surging demand for soybean meal have propelled its prices in recent years. Even though the current prices are tapering off, the Soybean Meal/Lean Hogs ratio remains high, signaling shrinking profit margins for producers. Moreover, compared to other commodities, the USDA's support for the Hogs and Pigs market has been relatively scant.
Another point of concern is the prevalence of negative news in the swine industry, such as the European swine industry suffering substantial financial losses in 2023, leading to an 8.5% drop in production. Or bouts of African Swine Fever, threatening global supplies. Such events have the potential to threaten producer’s profitability significantly which could work its way into structural long-term decline in supply. But as of now, this remains to be seen.
Overall:
Current evidence seems to be pointing to a stronger preference for beef given the unwavering demand despite supply shortage and climbing prices. Basic economics principlesnudge producers to markets with higher profitability, which could work its way into an increase in participants leading to supply eventually matching demand. Although this movement, if it happens, does not occur overnight, it will eventually lead to a convergence in prices between the two markets in the future.
There are also other reasons that need not be as drastic that point towards a convergence in prices in the medium term: expectations of Live Cattle supply should improve next year; the road to the maximum willingness to pay for Live Cattle is shorter now.
Hence, to express our continued bearish bias, we could consider a short on the spread of live cattle to lean hogs. Given that both Lean Hog & Live Cattle Futures have the same contract unit of 40,000 pounds and price quotation of US cents per pound, we can trade the spread of the two contracts using a 1:1 ratio. This involves selling one live cattle futures contract at the current price of 185.725 and buying one lean hog futures contract at the current price of 68.025 giving us a spread of 117.7. Each 0.00025 increment is equal to 10$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
usda.library.cornell.edu
usda.library.cornell.edu
beef2live.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
