Stonks
Correction in Stocks!!We are finally seeing our correction in stocks. The tiny retracement we saw on the 6th was paltry and we knew we should be seeing something more significant. The S&P fell to one of our support levels at 4298, but still could have more in the tank. We anticipate good support at 4272 or even 4245. This is a healthy correction for stocks, and we are still in 'bull mode'. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, dipping only slightly to reflect the correction. The Kovach Chande indicator is starting to round off, suggesting we may be bottoming out soon.
Stocks Slip, Get Bought Back!!Stocks sold off a bit from highs only to get swiftly bought back up again. We found support at 4327, but quickly bounced. We have been anticipating a more significant retracement, perhaps down to 4272 or 4245. If the S&P regains momentum, then we should hit our next target at 4380 perhaps today. Broadly, the Kovach OBV is extremely strong, but has leveled off a bit reflecting stock's ranging at highs.
Current view on JMIA. Relevant levels and structuresToday, we will speak about JMIA.
Let's check the main items we can see on the chart.
a) The price has broken a huge descending Wedge pattern
b) As usual, after the breakout of this type of structure, we can observe a retest or consolidation close to it.
c) In this case, we are observing a consolidation between 34.00 and 27.00. It's possible to observe a new local low on that range or a range between the specified price levels
d) However, the most important level we are observing right now is the activation one. (Green horizontal line at 34.80)
e) If the price reaches it, we expect a continuation of the bullish movement towards the next resistance zone at 48.00
f) Pay attention to the horizontal yellow line as a possible inner resistance zone
g) If the activation level is reached, we expect a resolution between 20 to 40 days
h) Of course that if the price keeps falling, we will cancel our view. Also, if the idea is activated, our invalidation level is below the consolidation structure.
Thanks for reading!
Stocks Ranging at HighsStocks have achieved another highs and have hit our profit target of 4352 on Friday. They've ranged at that level due to the Holiday in the US for the Fourth of July weekend. We are clearly establishing value at current levels but we have a very narrow range suggesting we could break out soon. If stocks have enough momentum to continue the rally, our next target is 4380. If not, we have levels of support below at 4327 and 4306. We keep saying we are due for a healthy correction at possibly a 50% retracement of the channel at 4272 or so, but the trend is clearly bullish for now
Red FlagsRed Flag #1: Insiders dumping a decent size of their positions.
Red Flag #2 : Daily chart looks VERY Bearish. 1 Reversal chart pattern, 2 Indicators.
Red Flag #3 : We’ll see (:
Stocks Hit Profit Target!! 🤑🤑Stocks have hit the next profit target at 4327. We seem to be forming a bull channel, and will eventually correct to the down side, with 4293 and 4272 being potential points of support. The Kovach OBV is very strong, but we are facing resistance from our profit target at 4327. If we see another breakout, our next target is 4350.
Stocks Forming Bull ChannelStocks keep edging out new highs. Our 'rounding off' behavior appears to be shifting into more of a bull channel type pattern. When these break down it is common to see a 50% retracement. But the Kovach OBV is still solidly bullish confirming the trend. The Chande, on the other hand has dipped sharply reflecting the potential rejection of our profit target of 4306. This is further confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The next target will be 4327. We maintain that stocks are due for a healthy retracement, potentially bringing us back to 4272.
Plug Power back on the trend linePLUG is a long term play, tesla hedge (10 Years)
As long as PLUG is on this trend I will continue to dollar cost average daily
- for beginners this literally means start off slow on cashapp with $10/day
- for advance traders DCAing at levels you feel comfortable buying and buying BIG #getwrecked
If it dips below the parallel stop DCA and find another trade u might want to participate in
IF it rises above feel free to take profit and buy other assets or go on amazon and treat yo self
trading is about YOU and not your personal life finance
communities make it about the community
never feel ashamed to profit off a great trade
people that bully are those that have lost and have broken their own rules time and time again
#notonmighwatch
Stocks Losing Steam??Stocks have extended gains yet again, coming just shy of our target of 4306, before pulling back ever so slightly. This is nowhere near the retracement we were expecting but it does validate our assertion that stocks are 'rounding off', potentially in preparation for a further selloff. Watch for support at 4272, and 4245. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, and no one can deny the bull trend, so watch for momentum at open to determine if we have the strength to break past 4293 to our target of 4306.
DBX clear way towards $34.00Today, we will share our view on DBX
The main two key items we were paying attention was the first resistance zone and the ABC pattern on the edge of it.
From there, we defined the next target based on previous situations, and 34.00 was the place where we saw clear rejections.
Now we can think about the shape of the ascending movement, and we can use the cloned channels as guidelines for it.
From current levels, we expect a resolution of this movement between 70 to 120 days.
Thanks for reading!
Stocks Rounding OffStocks keep creeping up and have hit our profit target of 4293. We are seeing the price action 'round off' suggesting a retracement is to come soon. Typically these arching patterns precede selloffs. The Kovach OBV was strong but has curved over as well. There is no doubt stocks are in bull mode right now but it appears that they are ready to let off the gas for a bit. The levels 4272 or 4245 will provide support. If we are wrong and the S&P gets another burst of momentum, then 4306 is our next target.
Correction for Stocks??The price action for stocks is rounding off. We are seeing less and less momentum, and the Kovach OBV is still strong but tapering as well. When the S&P is rallying at a decreasing pace, it typically heralds a correction. There is no doubt the overall trend is bullish, but buying now would be FOMO. Levels from below like 4245, or 4228 would be enticing levels to buy back. If we are able to muster enough momentum to breakout then 4293 is the next target.
Stocks Inch Up, Retracement Soon??Stocks have inched up, achieving our profit target of 4293. There will be some resistance here, and it is doubtful that the S&P will have the momentum to break through at the moment. Some ranging or a retracement is likely first. Stocks are clearly in bull mode, but the momentum seems to be waning and the gains are increasingly more paltry. We will have support from 4272 and 4245. Our next target is a bit more conservative, at 4306 if we do see another burst of momentum. We should also see resistance at the 4300 mark, since this is a psychological level.
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New Highs For Stocks??The S&P 500 is currently at the cusp of new highs. It has retraced the entire cypher breakdown. It is likely we will retrace here to support. First, we have had three straight days of gains. Second, although we are seeing higher highs and higher lows, the hallmark of a bull trend, these values come at a decreasing pace, ie we are seeing the S&P 500 'round off'. Therefore, if we do not see momentum at open, we are likely to retrace to support at 4245 or 4228, which would provide excellent opportunities for long positions. Watch the Kovach Momentum indicator. If you do not see a large spike at open, we are not having the follow through in momentum we need to punch through to higher highs.
Stocks are Back!!Stocks have rebounded to within a few ticks of where they broke from our butterfly cypher pattern. This suggests that the markets have fully digested inflation and interest rate updates from the FOMC meeting and most likely suggests that we are back to bull mode. Nasdaq printed highs yesterday, so the S&P 500 could be soon to follow. It will take some momentum to break through 4260, and if we do not see it, anticipate a retracement to support at 4245 or 4228. The Kovach OBV has returned to highs itself, as has the Chande, which is a sign that we are overbought and due for a retracement. Watch the momentum at open. If it is paltry or there is a lack of conviction, we will retreat to support at the levels discussed above. But there is no doubt that overall momentum has returned for stocks
IBM case study: Breakouts after 2500 days correctionToday, I observed the IBM chart, and I noticed this huge descending channel on the daily chart since 2013, and I saw that the price was breaking it. So, I decided to go to a higher timeframe to look for similar scenarios in the past, and yes!!!!!, having data since 1985 allowed us to see how this type of situation evolved in the past. Here are my conclusions
First Conclusion: Consolidations last between 2500 and 3000 days. That's a lot...
Second Conclusion : After we have a clear breakout (always using the most external trendlines of the consolidation), the price makes small corrective movements on the edge of the structure with a duration between 150 - 300 days. The key aspect here is that we can see an ABC pattern all the time.
Third Conclusion: Based on the two scenarios we have, we can see that in the second one, we had a failed setup on the first consolidation. However, the second one worked pretty well. "Be open to failed setups, and trade again if the 150 - 300 days corrections come again.
Fourth Conclusion: The bullish movements that come after these consolidations (the ones after the breakout) goes between 90% to 500%
So what is the idea with this? The idea is that we can create a scenario where we know what we are waiting for before trading. In this case, we want to see a breakout of this 3000 days consolidation followed by a small correction around 150 - 300 days. If that happens, we will trade the breakout of it, and we will aim to have an open setup for 1 to 2 years. We think that the risk-reward ratio we can have on these types of setups is above 7 to 1. Using 2% of the capital on a setup like this can provide a 14% return over a year or two (ONLY risking 2% of your capital). The post's main objective is to show that you can create trading maps on any asset with the correct amount of past data, study previous scenarios and get ready for a current situation.
Thanks for reading!
Wild Ride for Stocks!!Stocks have recovered from the dip which reached our profit target from the butterfly cypher pattern. We dipped quite a bit, down to the 0.618 level (one level past our profit target) to 4144. Almost immediately, investors swooped in to buy back the S&P at lower prices and we closed back just shy of 4245, currently finding support at 4214. The Kovach OBV is oscillatory, matching the fluctuations in price. It could go either way at this point. Another selling wave could take us to support at 4188 or 4144 again. An influx of momentum could push prices back to highs past 4245 to 4272. After such drastic volatility it is reasonable for the markets to seek value.
