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Stocks Drift UpwardsThe S&P 500 has drifted upwards, and is currently testing 4389. At the time of this writing it has barely broken through, hovering in the 4390's. The next target will be 4408. If we can muster the strength to hit that, then 4440 is the next target, a relative high before a vacuum zone to 4462, but we have several levels before 4440, so watch for some resistance before that, unless we get some serious momentum at open. If not, we could retrace back to 4327. The Kovach OBV has started to inch upwards, but the momentum appears weak, so the risk is more to the downside.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
US500 - Bullish plan explained Today, we will take a look at the S&P500 Index on a quick review. The price has been on consolidation for more than a month. A few days ago, it made contact with a relevant dynamic support resistance level where we saw a clear rejection. If we have a bullish perspective on this, assuming that what we are looking at on the chart Is a regular correction during a bull market, then this is one way to develop setups. What we want to see is first a Breakout; from there, we can wait for the retest of the broken structure, and we can develop setups on that structure, as you can see in the example below the chart. However, we can also wait for the breakout of the small retest and trade the fractal retest of it, which increases the risk-reward ratio while increasing the odds of a stop loss. Consider all these possible alternatives. At the moment, we have not defined the exact way we want to trade this, but it may be one of the two options we mentioned before. Let us know what's your view and chart in the comments. Thanks for reading!
U
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Stocks Slide, But Potential Breakout NearThe S&P 500 has slipped back below 4364, as anticipated in the last report. We found support at 4327, roughly the middle of the range stocks were holding between 4327 and 4364. Currently, we are testing the upper bound of this range, but a red triangle on the KRI suggests that we are meeting some resistance. There is a clear bull bias from the Kovach OBV, so watch for a potential breakout at open, especially if the tone of the news remains risk on. If so, we have several levels of resistance above, but 4408 would be the next target
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Try to Avert Third Straight Day of LossesStocks have started the week flaccid, but have found support at 4327. We got a bit of a lift to 4364, but are likely to hold the range until more inflation data comes out. We have a cluster of levels above which will likely prove to provide resistance, such as 4340, 4389, and 4408, particular relevant level. The Kovach OBV has actually picked up a bit, suggesting a bit of a bull divergence. However if we break down past 4327, we will have encroached upon the range between 4272 and 4327, a previous value area.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Bullish perspective on AMZN + Explanation and Setup.Today, we will speak about AMZN. a) Currently, it is correcting the edge of the broken range. b) We can see this type of behavior in the previous range from September 2018 until April 2020 c) To develop this setup, we asked this simple question: How many times can I prove that what I'm trying to trade right now has been proven as an effective system. d) To answer that, we used the beautiful logarithmic chart to check ALL the situations since inception where the price has been consolidating for more than 300 days. What we can see is that this is a setup we must take based on past performance. Even if we have a stop loss, we will be executing the same setup again. e) The parameters we are using on the setup are the ones you can see on the chart. The expected time for resolution of this may go between 170 to 250 days. f) We will be risking 2% of our capital on a setup like this, aiming to make AT LEAST 4%. g) We have seen in the past that once a trade like this is executed and the price starts going in our favor, it's smart to keep them open. That way, we can reach higher Risk to Reward Ratios. Thanks for reading. If you have any doubts or want to share your view in the comments, feel free to do it. We read them all. Thanks.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Do you think the "Google Mania" will keep going up? Today we will take a look at GOOGL. a) Since the bottom of the 2020 pandemic, the price has been on a major rally, gaining more than 150% b) The basic formations we have been observing are corrective structures ranging from 25 to 40 days before new impulses coming. c) Currently, we can see a new corrective pattern above the broken ascending channel. d) If the pattern we have been observing keeps working as in the past, then this should be another situation where a bullish resolution may come. e) What are our filters? First, the green horizontal line, we will ONLY consider this view as active if the price reaches that level. f) The invalidation level will be below the current corrective structure. (2600.00) g) To define targets, we have used Fibo Extensions; we have two levels that can be used as take-profit zones. h) Based on previous behavior, we can expect a resolution between 100 and 150 days. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by ThinkingAntsOk
Stocks Price in Debt CeilingStocks have gotten a lift from the debt ceiling news, however we are facing steep resistance from a cluster of levels in the mid 4400 handle, 4431 in particular. We are seeing a red triangle at this level confirming the resistance. Currently we are seeing support at 4389, as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has leveled off completely showing little or no conviction before the opening. If we do see a burst of momentum, we must first break 4431, then there is a vacuum zone to 4462. If we break down, 4364 should provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
We will wait before taking action on Chinese Stocks. Today we will take a look at BABA. When do we think maybe a good moment to start adding Chinese stocks into our portfolio? Of course, we will look at the answer from a technical perspective, and this is the conclusion we make: a) We must see contact with the support level first (Is there buying pressure?) b) If we see bullish pressure, that is the first sign those big investors may be adding again. c) Ok, that's the first filter; the second filter is the breakout of the descending trendline. That would mean a change in behavior or sentiment. Now the price can stabilize and avoid the previous decreasing angle in price. d) Cool, can I buy it now? You can buy whenever you want; however, we will not do that; we want to see our 3rd filter. Corrective Pattern after the contact on the support level + breakout of the descending trendline. It's pretty standard after we observer a breakout of a key level (in this case, the descending trendline), a lot of FOMO comes to the market. "Chinese Stocks are booming! I will not miss this..." And most of the time, those traders or investors get trapped on a correction. e) So if all the previous filters happen, we will develop long setups on BABA. f) Patience is key when looking for quality setups; you can't ask the market for opportunities; you need to wait until the market provides one. Thanks for reading!
NYSE:BABA
by ThinkingAntsOk
55
Debt Limit Hopes Lift StocksStocks caught a lift later in the trading day yesterday after struggling with 4327. Positive news sentiment off hopes of a debt ceiling agreement brought us back to the upper bound of the range at 4389. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but is flattening out suggesting we are facing some resistance here. In order to breakout, we will need sufficient momentum to break through. The next major level is 4408, the first technical level of the 4400 handle. If we fail to muster the momentum to break out, we will likely retrace to the bottom of the range again, at 4293 or 4272.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Bottoming OutStocks have retreated to the lower bound of the range, testing the 4200 handle again. Currently, we are finding support just above our level at 4272. We are seeing green triangles on the KRI, suggesting we are finding good support at these levels. Watch the risk sentiment in the news, because if we see more momentum towards open, we could potentially break down to 4245, the next level down. If not, we could test the upper bound of this range again, which is about 4380. The midpoint is at about 4327, so keep this in mind for a potential mean reversion trade. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, and if we are to break either of these levels, we need to see momentum come through.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Stocks Still Hugging LowsSocks are holding steady at lows. The S&P seems to have bottomed out at 4272, making a meager attempt at higher levels. We appear to be making a run for 4327, but there isn't much momentum to this rally. The risk sentiment is still pretty bearish, but we will see how it evolves as the day progresses. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish as well, but we could be due for a relief rally. Watch for 4272 to continue to provide support, but 4245 is the next level if we break through. The next level above is 4350, and there are several levels above this which will provide resistance until we are able to break through to the 4400 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
4
Are we on a relevant bouncing level on ARKK? Today we will take a look at Cathie Wood´s flagship, ARKK. Main elements of the chart: a) The price is against a resistance level + Lower trendline of the flag pattern (bigger white structure) + Lower trendline of the inner descending channel. b) Generally speaking, every time we find this level of alignment between technical elements, we tend to observe good reactions. c) So, should we BUY? No, remember that you should always use confirmations or filters before taking action. In this case, we want to see a bounce + small correction on the edge of the inner descending channel. If that happens, we can think about trading towards the higher trendline of the flag pattern (bigger white structure) d) What are the targets I can expect? We have two to propose. The first one is the higher trendline of the Flag pattern, and the second target is the resistance level at 130.00 e) Speaking about duration, we can expect a 50 to 70 days movement for a full movement like the one we are expecting f) We also have defined a red horizontal line that represents an invalidation level for this analysis. That means that we will assume that the price broke the current level, and we should expect bearish pressure until the next support level. Thanks for reading!
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Stocks Attempt a RallyStocks appear to have found support for now at 4272. This seems to be a lower bound for now. We do appear to be witnessing a meager attempt at a rally. The S&P has tested 4380, but retraced a bit to support at 4327. We may attempt to find support here as we establish value. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, and until we can see some momentum come through, we can expect to remain at these lower levels. We have a cluster of levels in the 4300 handle above. If we manage to break through these, 4408 is the first major level in the 4400 handle, and this will be a significant barrier to break.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
When Will Stocks Recover?? 😱Stocks appeared to be seeking value around 4389, but seem to have taken a turn for the worse. We found support at 4350, but risk off sentiment pervaded the markets and the S&P smashed through several support levels down to 4272, where it is currently finding support. The Kovach OBV is still massively bearish, suggesting we are getting into oversold territory, and due for a bounce. The best case scenario for bulls would be a V-shaped recovery, that could take us back to the 4300 handle or even 4400. From below, we should have support at 4225.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Find SupportStocks have found support at 4350. The S&P has drifted up, and inched above 4389, but does not seem to have enough momentum in the tank to test the 4400's yet. If we see a lift at open, 4408 will be our next immediate target. After that, there is a cluster of levels in the low 4400's, that will next provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is bearish, but has started to pick up. If the sell off continues, we will find support again at 4350, but if this breaks, 4327 and 4306 are the next levels down.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Meltdown!! Will They Find Support??Stocks have finally found support at 4350, after a massive selloff yesterday. We cut through several major levels, and have solidly breached the 4300 handle. Currently, we are seeing a bit of a lift from 4350, reaching a resistance level at 4388. There is a red triangle on the KRI, suggesting we may see a rejection of this level. If so, we could retrace back to 4350 and then some. If we see momentum come through, then there is a vacuum zone above to 408. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, however.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
US Dollar and the macro landscapeThe USD is currently looking pretty strong, with 96 looking very likely the first key target and resistance zone. It looks like it has formed a major based and has potentially bottomed for real... The US compared to other countries can raise rates a lot more and therefore the dollar could strengthen more, but the key is that raising rates will create all sorts of issues. There is too much US denominated debt and as rates go higher people struggle to pay debts and therefore sell real assets to buy USD. As inflation is going higher, people are already struggling to pay certain things and this is just the cherry on top. I seriously don't understand how raising rates will stop energy prices going higher, especially when the way the system is currently set and in its current state raising rates even to 3% would blow up the entire US junk bond market. There is too much leverage and malinvestment at this stage that can only be washed out violently. However I am not as bearish for now, especially on US stocks. I believe we will get a dip, and a strong dip but it is a great opportunity. I truly believe stocks have much higher to go and this is just an ordinary correction. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 for about a year and in the meantime stock prices have risen tremendously. Yes there is more upside, but corrections are part of the game regardless of whether there is a narrative behind them or not. That could be high inflation, Fed raising rates, Evergrande or whatever... but the truth is that it was time. Based on my analysis stocks could fall another 5-10% before they bottom, but this doesn't mean it is going to happen in one candle. Expect chop for some time and a potential bottom when we get really high volatility with the VIX around 40. In the short term US rates could go up (bonds going down) and that move was building up for quite some time, but I don't think it will be a moonshot for rates and it won't be a long lasting move. At some point growth will slow down and many of the structural issues will be solved, so inflation will come down and we will be stuck in the same disinflationary environment... Lots of things will start breaking, lots of people will be trapped on the inflationary trade and rates will go negative next time around. So what do I see? Rates up to 1.5-2% and then back down again. What I find most interesting here is how the Russell 2000 looks like distribution, but as rates go up it could be the biggest beneficiary as people exit large caps to enter into small caps. Maybe that's a key rotation to pay attention to as it has shown quite a lot of strength recently. Not only that, but the lows on RUT could be broken violently and then we could see an even more violent come back with new highs shortly after (essentially that range being re-accumulation). Personally I really don't like the way the VIX has bottomed and I feel a big move is coming and that we will have a very volatile environment for quite some time. Things aren't going well globally and nothing has been done to fix all the issues going on. What worries me the most is how relentless Oil and Natural gas look like, which could do a lot of damage on huge parts of the economy as inequality keeps growing. We are stuck in a trap and we can't escape... a vicious loop that only makes things worse. So who knows... maybe my expectation for a small correction is small and a much larger one will come. It is clear that the main trend has broken and I have spoken about it quite a bit over the last few weeks. I have no idea how bad things could get, but for now being patient and waiting to buy the dip is what I think is best. Buy dips on Oil and Stocks. Forget metals and bonds for sure.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
Stocks Plummet!! 📉😨Stocks have sold off pretty hard, breaking down from a head and shoulders type pattern with the head at 4487. We anticipated in these reports that it would be difficult for stocks to break higher and that the risk was to the down side. We are currently attempting to find support at 4408, a level we have discussed in these reports many times and called out yesterday as a level of support. It looks like we are getting ready to break through this level as we write this. This is the last level of support in the 4400 handle, with 4389 and 4380 as the first levels to provide support beneath it. There is a cluster of levels above which will take some momentum to break through, including 4421, 4431, an 4440.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
High-Quality levels on DraftKings.Today we will take the last year of price quotation and we will work on all the relevant levels we will e paying attention a) The main aspect we can see are the exteriors support and resistance levels (these are our framework) b) Inside our range, we can draw a trendline that may work as a relevant support level. From there, we can expect a bounce and the following correction (Trading Opportunity 1). As we are breakout traders, these corrections are what we are looking for before entering the market c) If the price breaks the previously mentioned level, we will aim to see the price on the next support level (lower zone of our range) at 35USD. From there, we will expect the same sequence: bounce + the following correction. d) Both trading opportunities will share the same target 64USD, however, it is important to mention the inner resistance level at 56.00 USD (there we should be open to possible corrections) e) Final Idea: Remember, the best way of developing high-quality setups is by waiting for the price to reach high-quality zones. Working setups from there increase your odds of success Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:DKNG
by ThinkingAntsOk
1