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How to Trade Stocks as Omicron WeighsCoronavirus fears continue to weigh on stocks. In particular, the Moderna CEO predicts less effective vaccines for the Omicron variant, and this has sent stocks back to lows despite an attempt at a rally, yesterday. We made it as high as 4668, which we have identified as a new technical level, before falling back to lows, which appear to be holding for now, perhaps by a thread. A green triangle on the KRI does appear to be suggesting we are finding support here at 4580, but are not really seeing much of a bounce. If current levels don't hold, we could see support at 4564, 4545, or 4504. Watch for stocks to make another bounce and perhaps form a bear wedge with a lower bound at 4580 before cracking it. If we do catch a bid, then 4632 and 4649 need to be broken before we can consider higher levels again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
MELI | Breakout or Bounce?MELI, Breakout or bounce? Today we will take a look at the Latin American e-commerce platform "Mercado Libre." Currently, the price is on a relevant level to pay attention to; it's a zone where we have a support level and the cloned trendline of the current correction. As this is a major zone, we can start thinking about the bullish or bearish resolution from here. IF the price breaks the current zone, the next support level is likely to be the bearish target of the movement, around 970. However, if the price can bounce from here, we can expect a bullish movement towards the descending trendline at 1550. I want to see the price breaking the descending trendline (yellow) to consider bullish opportunities. EXAMPLE Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view and charts in the comments.
NASDAQ:MELI
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Omicron Variant Weighs on StocksStocks plummeted off of renewed coronavirus panic over the Omicron variant, with 23 different spike proteins. It is currently evading all vaccines, and poses 'very high global risks' as per the WHO. This new boogeyman has permeated through the markets and we are likely to see lower levels in stocks until the risk has been priced in. Today is the Monday after the US holiday, so the markets are likely to jostle for direction over this issue. We smashed through the 4600 handle, finally finding support at 4580, where a green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support. Currently, we are testing 4632, and 4649, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, so it would be fomo to pile into a long trade at this point. We should see continued support from 4580, but if this does not hold, we have a cluster of levels below to provide further support down to 4545. The next target will be 4693 if we catch a bid, but we have to break 4649 first.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
The triangle pattern on TRV is finished | What's next?Today, we will look at a beautiful chart from a technical perspective and all the relevant levels that we should pay attention to. Key Elements on the chart: a) The dynamic Resistance level working since 2018. That's our Major level in terms of defining the turning point for bullish movements. Once we have clarity about "major levels," we may see two types of behavior there. Either the level keeps working, and you observe a reversion. OR the price creates sideways structures below on the edge or above, and generally speaking, we tend to observe new impulses coming out of those structures. b) The ABCDE triangle pattern: Corrective Structures are not more than a tool, and when used as isolated signals, it is a great formula to achieve nothing. However, when we add context to a corrective structure, we increase our odds of being in front of a situation where the price may start a new massive impulse or wave. In this case, the proportions with the previous impulse are perfect, and the inner formation of it is from a technical analysis book. So we can consider it finished. Activation level and directions: a) Targets: we are using fibo extensions to define the possible targets of this movement. Remember, we ALWAYS use 1.618 as taking profit and 1.272 as a level to be cautious and protect the full position or part of it. b) Activation Level: the ONLY way to say "My Bullish view is active" is IF the price reaches our horizontal green line, which basically means a new ATH. IF that becomes true, my invalidation level will be below C; at that point, I would say, "I'm hesitant of the bullish hypothesis," therefore I'm out. However, if the price doesn't reach our activation level, there's nothing to do more than wait or cancel the idea if the price starts falling. Thanks for reading! Share your view or charts on the comment.
NYSE:TRV
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Stocks Ranging Below HighsStocks have stabilized for now between 4649 and 4693. We are seeing quite a bit of volatility in this range, suggesting that we are jostling for value. The Kovach OBV has slumped, which makes it highly unlikely that the S&P 500 will be able to attempt new highs before the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US which starts tomorrow. We are seeing several green triangles near 4649, which suggests that we should continue to see great support at this level. If it does not hold, then 4632 will be the next to provide support. If we are able to break 4693, then 4729 is the next target before we can consider new highs again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
COIN | Analysis of the current situationToday, we will take a look at Coinbase. Currently, the price is down -26% since IPO. But what can we expect from here? * After 223 days of trading since IPO, we have some context to make Technical Analysis and make some quick conclusions. * We can see a clear transition between the beginning of the bearish movement to the sideways movement on the bottom and the beginning of a new bullish situation * Now we can see a cloned channel broken and a Flag pattern, finding support there. The proportions between impulses and corrections are clear so that we can make our first conclusion on a possible direction * IF the price breaks above "B" on the flag pattern, we will consider that as an activation level for our bullish view towards the 3 following levels: -FIRST: First fibo extension -SECOND: Previous ATH -THIRD: Second Fibo extension (final target) *For our view to stay valid, the price should not go below the cloned channel for more than a couple of candlesticks. Otherwise, the flag pattern will be invalid, and we should be open to a new bearish movement towards 240 (lower trendline of the ascending channel) Thanks for reading! Let us know in the comments any view or idea you have about this.
NASDAQ:COIN
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Some ideas on the most significant drop in PYPL history.PYPL is on my trading watchlist because, as a growth stock, it has been in a corrective situation for a reasonable amount of time, 284 days to be exact, from February 16, 2021. When we have this type of consolidation, it is easy to look at the past and ask a simple question. How many times did a similar situation like the current one has happened? As you can see, there are 3 situations, including this one, that we can compare and understand to look for a good spot to develop setups with a goods ods as evolving as expected + High risk to reward ratio. Let's check all of them. AUG2015 - APR2017 JUL2019 - MAY2020 FEB2021 - YTD I don't have a final idea of what I want to trade here. However, I'm certain I will not develop any bullish setup below the current descending trendline. Once the price gets close to it, I will develop the specific filter I'm waiting for. Based on past behavior, if I see a breakout of the descending trendline + a clear filter (not defined yet), I think it is a good opportunity to look for setups with a target on the previous high and beyond. That would mean R/R ratios above 5 or 6 (if we can catch that), and at the same time, we can absorb multiple stop loss, and even if we get it right on the 4th attempt; we still are able to make profits. Feel free to add any ideas or thoughts about this in the comments! Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Three Factors Impacting Stocks TodayStocks made a run for highs with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination yesterday. The S&P 500 briefly made new highs, but was quickly sold off, due to fears of a rate hike and a dimmer economic outlook in Europe. We have smashed through support at 4693, and are currently in the vacuum zone between 4649. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong despite the selloff, suggesting an upside bias. If we find support at current levels, we must break 4693 again. If not, 4632 is the next level of support below.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
What to Expect Before Stocks Make New HighsStocks are edging up to highs at 4729. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 4700's. We are currently seeing a red triangle on the KRI confirming the resistance at current levels at 4717. The Kovach OBV was rather flat, but has picked up recently. It will take some formidable momentum to break out of 4729, so watch for a selloff if we continue to approach this level. Eventually stocks will make new highs again, but that may follow a bull flag or other bull consolidation pattern first. If we retrace further, then 4693 should provide support, but beneath that we have a vacuum zone down to 4649
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Facing Resistance at HighsStocks have faced fierce resistance at highs, as we mentioned in the last report. Recall that we identified highs as a significant barrier to the S&P 500, and if significant momentum did not come through then we were likely to retrace. This is exactly what we are seeing now. However, we are seeing support at 4693, which we also highlighted in the last report. If this does not hold, we could easily retrace the entire range to support at 4632 and 4649. There is a vacuum zone below to 4580, but as mentioned, the broad range stocks have held since the beginning of this month should hold. We could be in the makings of a bull wedge, suggesting that stocks are gearing up for a breakout. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need to see more momentum come through before considering a breakout.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
CSCO | Corrective structure on a major levelToday I will speak about CSCO. The price is against the previous all-time high since 2002. As you can see, the sequence we have right now happened two times in the past. The price reaches the top, makes a correction, breakout, and small throwback on the broken structure (daily chart), and we have a bullish impulse. Based on that, we are in the situation where the price has reached the top, made a corrective pattern, and what I want to see before Trading is: a) Breakout of the ABC pattern b) 2 days correction c) Trading on the new high, stop loss below the correction. Target on the weekly resistance level or below. The expected risk to reward ratio is 4, and I will be risking 3% of my capital IF this happens as expected. Remember that the main point of Trading this way is that we are on a pattern that has happened in the past, and we are assuming that if the conditions are the same, we have certain chances to see the same resolution. My track record,d trading this way since 2019, has shown me that we can expect a 50% win rate. However, that's all we need if our average risk to reward ratio is higher or equal to 2. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:CSCO
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
What do you think is coming next on DIS? Today we will define all the relevant levels on Disney either for bullish or bearish scenarios. After the gap on the 11th of November , the price kept falling, and now it's a good time to think about reversal areas or the following bearish targets My main conclusion right now is that we are on a Flag ABC pattern, which means that we may see content with the cloned channel (yellow lines), which makes convergence with the previous ATH in November 2019. That's a level that we should see bullish pressure to keep our bullish thesis valid. However , if the price breaks that level and reaches 146.00, I will think that my bullish view is not valid anymore, and I would think about bearish targets on the next support level at 130.00 Despite the specific resolution, I think the current situation may be interesting to trade after we have a clear formation. Once we have structures with more than 250 days, it's pretty easy to look into the past for similar conditions and develop consistent setups based on a statistical perspective. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and ideas in the comment box.
NYSE:DIS
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Stocks Picking Up, Will They Breakout??Stocks are maintaining the broad range we disucssed yesterday, although they have picked up slightly and are tending toward the upper bound. We will have resistance at highs, and are already seeing some red triangles forming on the KRI indicating some that we are currently facing some resistance. We do appear to have good support from 4693, but if this does not hold, we should see further support from 4649 and 4632. The Kovach OBV is quite flat, so we anticipate this broad sideways correction to continue until some momentum comes through.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Trading Plan on AAL | What we are expecting Today, we will take a look at American Airlines Group from a technical perspective. The main aspect we can observe is the weekly trendline working as dynamic support since 2008. We can consider it a major level from where we have observed lasting bullish impulses in the past. Alright, if that's our support level to start thinking in bullish opportunities, we need to make sure that minor levels have also been broken. In this case, we have a descending trendline that started in 2018. The price broke it in March this year. After the breakout, the price has been consolidating on a range from March 2021 until the current date. The trading plan here is about waiting for the breakout of the current structure (yellow lines). IF that happens, we will be waiting for a small correction on the daily chart, and we will execute orders on the new local high. Targets: On the weekly chart, we can see a major resistance zone around 56. However, we are not using that target because we may get stuck in long corrections. That's why we will use a minor resistance zone at 44.00 R/R ratio = 4. Risk on the stop loss = 3% Expected duration: 200 days The main idea of defining a situation in advance is that we already know how to trade IF we observe these conditions; otherwise, we will not be trading (you have more than 1000 charts to keep looking for premium opportunities) Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your charts and ideas, on the comment's box
NASDAQ:AAL
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Stocks to Face Resistance at Higher LevelsStocks have gotten a lift off lows and are drifting up to higher levels. We are currently seeing support from 4693. We will continue to have resistance from 4729, and it will take more momentum than what we are currently seeing to break new highs. A retracement could continue the sideways correction, bringing us back down to 4649 or 4632. We could easily retrace to these levels and not be considered bearish, just continuing the correction. There is a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV which is currently weak. It would be fomo to enter a long trade at these levels. Wait for a retracement to the lower levels mentioned above before placing any bids.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks in a Sideways Correction Under Highs The S&P 500 is ranging, and it seems we are in a broad sideways correction, after the impulse that took us to highs. We are seeing support from 4632, as identified by a green triangle on the KRI, and are facing resistance from 4693, as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and will face further resistance from highs at 4729. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, so we anticipate the ranging to continue until more momentum comes through either way. Watch the vacuum zone below 4632 down to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support, Testing Higher Levels!!Stocks have found good support at 4632, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. we have gotten a good lift from this level and are currently testing higher levels. Currently, we are testing 4695, where a red triangle on the KRI seems to be indicating some resistance. If we can see momentum come through at open, we could easily test highs again at 4729. If we reject 4695, we could be set to range a bit between 4649 and 4695. The Kovach OBV is relatively flat, but appears to be picking up slightly.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
Breakout Soon for Stocks??Stocks have leveled off, trading pretty flat yesterday. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, suggesting that a breakout either way is near. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened with this ranging. We are finding support at 4649 and 4632, two levels we called out yesterday. Beware of the vacuum zone below to 4580. If we are able to catch a bid towards open, the next target is 4693, then we will be in a position to make a run for highs at 4729 after that.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
After 200 days we can see a breakout | MUToday we will take a look at Micron Technology, a company that engages in the provision of innovative memory and storage solutions. Time to check the Technical elements on the chart: 1) From 2018 until November 2020 the price was inside a massive range until we saw the breakout of it and a 50% bullish movement from that situation towards the top of the bullish impulse 2) From April until today the price has been consolidating on a clear corrective pattern where we can define both top and bottom edges 3) How can we know that the structure is finished? Two reasons here: first we have clear edges (previous item) and second the structure has made contact with a key level, in this case, the ascending trendline. 4) Now we have a breakout of the corrective pattern. Remember that Technical Analysis is a statistical discipline, which means that we are never gonna have certainty about a situation. However, we know that if we engage in quality situations over certain periods, we will be able to observe consistent results. 5) We are not taking setup on this stock, (we already have exposure on other assets). However, it's an interesting situation to wait for a throwback (retest of a broken structure). IF that happens, we have defined an activation level as you can see on the chart (ALWAYS ABOVE THE TRENDLINE) 6) Depending on how aggressive is the setup you are taking, the invalidation level can be: FIRST below the whole structure 65.00 / SECOND below the throwback (this setup provides a massive risk to reward ratio, however, is prone to a quick stop loss) 7) Targets: IF I would be executing a setup here, I would protect my setup once the price reaches the previous top, which shares a major resistance zone that you can see on the weekly chart (2% below that, I want to be risk-free) / Now, the places to close setups on profit can be the first or 2nd Fibonacci extension. The expected duration of a movement like this may be between 200 to 300 days. 8)RISK: This is the formula I use to trade: I never have more than 5 setups at the same time NEVER EVER. And the maximum % of risk I take on any setup is 3% (ONLY with a STRATEGY THAT YOU HAVE a lot of EXPERIENCE WITH). Let's understand this better, most of my setups happen on the daily chart, which means that time resolutions are between 2 weeks to 3 months. Another rule I use is that my setups must happen on uncorrelated assets example: NFLX / BTCUSD / XAUUSD / FCX / AMZN. So my worst-case scenario is losing all at the same time which means a -10% to -15%. That's more than acceptable for me. And the most probable thing is that I would be able to open 4 to 5 new setups 1 to 2 months later. That's why this type of trading style is so secure. Even in apocalyptic scenarios, you would face a manageable loss, and it will take you time to develop new setups (you avoid impulsive trading) Thanks for reading! Please feel free to share any idea about MU, in terms of technical or fundamental analysis.
NASDAQ:MU
by ThinkingAntsOk
1