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Spyforcast

$SPY Forecast For Years To Comeplease dont take my opinion as financial advice i'm just a 17 year old with some speculations. with that being said let me explain myself. With the fed pausing still i believe we will keep rallying till we see our first cut once we get that first cut it'll be the market top. The fed has been sitting on their hands for way too long and with inflation sneaking back up i dont see it getting better until its too late. stuff will start breaking soon and it'll just put us more and more into a downward spiral. going into 2025 we will be in a bear market and throughout 2025 we will be trying to fight a spike of inflation which will scare the market and bring us down to 2022 highs and if shit hits the fan we will continue to see downside going into 2026. the battle against inflation isnt a quick fix and this will take time (a couple years) we will eventually recover but it wont be till we see the fed's inflation goal of 2% for a couple months of consistency that'll be our green light for ATH. I will be scaling into end of year shorts starting at $550, $560, and final $570 im not missing this opportunity with the stock market this overbought knowing that the dot plot forecasts higher inflation to come next year. Taking profits on the way down as more data comes out. Thank you for your time and i will be open to hearing others opinion.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bullishbrowsing
Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario. Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up. I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak. Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible. The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121. Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year. If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%. Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007. This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
FX:SPX500
by magnusfogelberg
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