Get started

Spx500short

SPX - RETRACED to moving average - Next Leg Down"What a fool believes he sees No wise man has the power to reason away What seems to be Is always better than nothing" YES - the U.S. is doing better than the rest of the world. Europe, China, and Emerging Markets are imploding in real-time. And there's your "bull" sh*t market. If that's your thing. Love this publishing Trading View deal - colors and pictures and charts......like a new box of 64 colours of crayons....for Technical Analysis Chart Porn …. WOO HOO
SP:SPXShort
by CapeAfrican
3
My last night SPX update with detailed notes belowThis is what was sent to those who are on my email list. I have 2 pathways going into the mid of the month. - 5 waves up, then the 4th wave should be limited to 3930-40 and might even get to 3985-92 only. 3910 MUST hold on any test for this count to be alive. It means next 12-13 days will be less volatile move lower and limited. - Much deeper B wave down to ideal target zone of 3850+- to even 3800-10. This pathway has higher odds as we have volatility rising from the 8th all the way to the 15th. Also tomorrow is picking up as a volatile day, I wont be surprised the first gap of 4091.19 penetrated by tomorrow or Fri am. There is a chance that the second gap of 4072 will be filled as well on this move down. Ideally we see that low Fri am, then end the week with a rally into the close to trap the bulls and gap down on Monday. We didn't see a move lower today, so the gap fill to watch for tomorrow going into Tuesday I have a good resistance cluster for the end of the week from 4158 to 4177SPX. Max stretch I see is 4200 but might not be seen till after the mid month low. Ideal target is 4225 and 4255-60 (depends on the day we make the high) with possible stretch to 4308-30SPX. Failure to close the gap at 4300 will be a huge sign of a much bigger correction ahead. So regardless of the outcome I see lower levels (double bottom if we stretch into the 4308-30 zone) by Oct low. Im only short few ES, those are under the water, I will be adding tomorrow and stay short over the weekend. Expect the market to move and get some volatility from the next week. Looking to be out from short position and flip long mid month and my timing for the low is 16th of Aug. Tomorrow is the directional change day, the price should start moving into Tuesday, up into Thursday and final move lower on the 16th. Main support for the next week is 3992SPX, then 3939SPX Ideally we gap and crap tomorrow into the resistance cluster mentioned above, it might just gap down.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
8
Is the Bull Run Over?Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending. Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts. My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools. The chart uses a log-linear regression channel on the monthly chart of SPY to measure whether or not the bull run is intact. To create this log-linear regression channel, I added the "Linear Regression (Log Scale)" indicator by @Forza . I also added the "Linear Regression Formula" by @alexgrover to better gauge smaller scale trend reversals. I modified the log-linear regression channel settings to include the entire period of the bull run following the Great Recession. More specifically, my look back period is from the bottom of the Great Recession (Count: 162, since it occurred 162 months ago). I kept the standard deviation at 2. A standard deviation of 2 means that this channel is likely to contain 95% of all price action. Here are the ways that I use this log-linear regression channel to determine whether or not the bull run is still intact: If price closes below the lower channel line, the next monthly candle must move back up and, at a minimum, tag the lower channel line. (This shows that buyers are coming in to buy the dip) The linear regression line (the thin oscillating red line) cannot fall below the lower channel line of log-linear regression channel at the time of any monthly close. (If this line falls below the lower channel line it could resist price as it attempts to re-enter the channel, which in turn could signal an end to the trend). Once price closes below the lower channel line, and then recovers to close above the lower channel line, price cannot then close below the channel again without first reaching the mean (red center line of the channel). (See below for illustration) This last rule is important because it signifies that there were not enough buyers who were interested in buying the dip so as to enable price to recover to the mean. If any of these rules fail, then it is a sign of weakness and the bull run that has been in place since the Great Recession may be ending. My chart also shows overthrows, or periods when price thrusts above the 2nd standard deviation from the mean. (See chart below) When the linear regression line crosses above the upper channel of the log-linear regression line that sends a signal that we are near a market top. In November 2021, the monthly SPY candle formed a bearish inverted hammer, which sent an additional signal that we are near the top. These signals are opportunities to become more defensive (e.g sell call options, begin to trail and narrow your stop losses for long position, stop adding new long positions). Some traders may ask: What is the difference between a log-linear regression channel and just drawing a channel using candlesticks closing prices? The answer is that in the case of a log-linear regression channel the channel is derived mathematically from price action using a mean and standard deviations. One benefit of this method over drawing a channel using price action is that you can better detect overthrows and underthrows. This is to say that rather than drawing a wider channel to include all closing prices, a log-linear regression channel draws a narrower channel and signals high-probability buying and selling opportunities when price closes below or above the channel, respectively. Another difference is that a regression channel will not be as skewed by an outlier candlestick. Aside from helping to determine if the bull run is over, this chart can help you decipher whether or not bullish predictions are realistic. For example, there are bulls on Trading View calling for SPY to reach 600 next year, unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen. In fact, based on this log-linear regression channel, the probability of that happening is less than 2.5% because it would require SPY to thrust above the upper channel line (2 standard deviations from the mean) of the log-linear regression channel. (See below for a diagram) In summary, the stock market may seem like a roller coaster that randomly takes drastic swings, but the highs and lows of these swings are quite predictable.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
16
SPX Double Top Rejection @ 4144 - SPX500 SHORT 30 MINUTE CHARTAll the earnings and FED news is out so we “”buy the rumour and sell the fact….”” 1 - Looks like 4144 a small double top - better seen on the ES1 FUTURES 2 - Oscillators divergence BEARISH – Not supporting the new highs… 3 - Both tops followed by Large engulfing RED CANDLES - better seen on the US500 4 - MACD - BEARISH signal 5 -VWAP - Held on the retracement BACK UP -- 6 - FIB levels are the current support Will trade this to the short side once it breaks below 4090 MEANWHILE TAIPEI, Aug 2 - Shares of Taiwan chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW) fell as much as 2.98% on Tuesday, as investors closely watch a possible trip to Taiwan by Pelosi later in the day which has angered China. The main benchmark share index (.TWII) fell more than 2%. => We love you Nancy, but Please DO NOT VISIT!! Maybe she can help US short sellers too -- Just like her husband's NVdia option plays...?? Chinese mortgage revolt had signaled the 41% DECLINE in sales in July. In 30 cities CRIC determined to have been seriously affected by the revolt. Buyers are not paying for homes not getting finished and sales have dropped - 7 months of steady declines.... And we thought our Real Estate Bubble was bad..... German economic growth stagnated between the first and second quarters, and an update of business and consumer confidence is now at its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic....CAN YOU SPELL RECESSION and it is not even winter...??
SP:SPXShort
by CapeAfrican
Hopefully I'm wrong.. Made this prediction based off the 2000 & 2007 bear markets. Hopefully things don't get this bad, but I think the market is due for at least a 50% correction from the top (4818). Doesn't help that the US ( & world) is dealing with war, COVID (& monkeypox), historic inflation, supply chain issues, monopolized oil market, a deteriorating housing market, two quarters of negative GDP growth (some of us like to call this a recession), and a bunch of greedy mfs at the top manipulating the market the best they can. There's literally no reason to be bullish right now from my perspective. I'm not an expert at all and have only been in the markets for a little over 2 years. I would love to hear your thoughts and opinions!
TVC:SPXShort
by kacemoney
1
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX updated bear channelI did send this chart during the last trading hour yesterday to those who are on my email list. I have revised the bear channel and it fits much better with the current price action as well as the fibs. Im short here and looking to add if we see a double tap of a bit higher high, otherwise doing only day trading. Its a weekly and monthly closing day today, so must watch numbers are: - 4090.80PX on closing level for weekly continuation or rejection of the price. - 3950.50SPX on closing level for monthly continuation or rejection. If closing below the second number it will be a huge tell of much lower levels to come. Closing above 4090 can bring the 4300 into play earlier then I thought and that would make me change the ABC pathway with Jun 14th being as a B wave. Main supports are: - 4060SPX - 4002-10SPX - 3939SPX - 3890SPX Im mostly off today, will do a weekend update only.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still trendingHe didnt gap down and gap up today, so no call for the full retracement off yesterday's low into Fri. The next targets are 4075 and 4090SPX I have some good confluence with the 4090SPX and as far it was so far away from a week ago, its getting close to it. Tomorrow is a double directional day, watching for the 4090 to be hit to mark the high. Also getting close to the monthly closing, tomorrow, also a weekly closing. So a lot of volatility is expected, might do some lotto options. - Weekly closing resistance level is right at my second target - 4090.80SPX. Closing above will be bullish going into the next week. - Monthly closing resistance is lower and it's at 3950.50, closing above will be bullish going into the month of Aug. that would support my view on higher low mid Aug. So tomorrow is a very important day, if we do sell off hard and close below 3950SPX, then it could bring lower lows into mid of Aug. If we do close above 4090, then I would redo my ABC move off the lows with B being in place on 14th of July. Then 4225 becomes the target
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX quick updateIm in transition for next 16 hours plus, wont be able to post or trade the open. Im seeing a small H&S pattern forming on smaller time frame. Should stay below or around 4k top for it to hold and then trigger. Looking for a low either on the 25th or 28th. Ideally we top tomorrow as time window suggests we will, or low tomorrow and high by Wednesday. Im expecting a good size decline to start soon, should last into 1-4th of Aug at min, bounce and final low 13-15th of Aug. From where we should rally super strong (Mar like) into the EOM or first days of Sep. There is something serious is about to happen early or mid Sep, so if we do see 4300+ Im going to stay fully naked with ZERO longs!!! Again I do think we have much lower to go, but the short term pain is on the upside. Will update those who are on my email list from the airport, few things to add there. Have a great rest of your weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPx is on the pathway for high on the 25th.Nothing changed since my last update, we dont get much in declines, so the pressure is up. My timing for the high is 25th, ideally we gap and start the move down hard. 3880SPX is the main support now. If we get down to 3950 I will get my longs back on for a trip to 4030-40 and even 4075-90. There is a solid yellow trendline goes from 2009 lows and goes all the way up into yesterday's close. I do expect it to be penetrated a bit with the C wave up, but acting as a strong resistance on bigger time frame. There is a yellow dotted line, its coming off Feb 2020 Feb high. Those 2 are most important bear/bull resistances to watch Its a weekly closing. Weekly resistance is at 4090, very important to have a close below it for my pathway drawn on the chart I expect a monthly close below 3950 level Volatility is set to rise from Monday and lasting into the 4th
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
$spy s&p 500 etf CAUTION CAUTION $spxThe S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously... It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory. This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long into resistance under these circumstances. Can it break out above? YES. Do I think it will? NO. Only time will tell.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode