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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5720 bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line. Invalidation is above 5720. short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500: Approaching All-Time High or Facing Reversal?S&P 500 Analysis: All-Time High or Reversal? The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum at the start of the second quarter earnings season. This bullish sentiment is expected to drive a general upward trend with potential rotations. Bullish Scenario: To sustain the bullish momentum, the price needs to stabilize above the pivot line at 5620, potentially reaching 5672 and 5688. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5620, it would indicate a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5585 and 5550. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5640 - Resistance Levels: 5670, 5688, 5715 - Support Levels: 5620, 5585, 5550 Today's Expected Trading Range: Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5688 and the support at 5550. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Election Year Jitters: How to Navigate the Volatile US Equity MaUS Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin will rise. WHAT IS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE THEORY? Yale Hirsch introduced this theory. It posits that stock markets are weakest in the year following Presidential elections. The presidential election impacts economic policies and consequently market sentiment. Theory suggests that US equities perform best during the third followed by the fourth year of a Presidential term. In 1967, Yale Hirsch (a market researcher) published the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to the book, the President typically indulges the special interest group who got him elected in the first two years after assuming the office. With the next election round the corner, the President shifts focus on shoring up the economy to get re-elected during the third and fourth year. Consequently, equities gain during the second half of the Presidential term. That's the theory, but does it hold true? The answer turns out to be an emphatic yes. S&P500 Index Performance since 1960 with election years highlighted BUT HOW ABOUT SECOND HALF OF THE ELECTION YEAR? With half of the election year behind us, crucially, how do markets perform during the second half of an election year? Over the last 6 decades, the S&P500 on average delivered positive returns in 13 of the 16 election years during the second half of the year. 2008 was a washout year for equities with global financial crisis crushing equities. The S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.1% followed by 3.2% in the second half on average even after including 2008. S&P500 tends have positive bias in election years Excluding 2008, average S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.9% followed by 5.4% in the second half. S&P500 positive bias during election years is even more pronounced when 2008 GFC abnormal returns are excluded PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE History has shown time and again that timing the market is futile. Using Hirsch’s theory as gospel can be dangerous. Presidential elections occur once only every four years. Even though the analysis above covers 6 decades, it only has 16 data points. By any measure, that's far too little to arrive at definitive conclusions. As any sensible statistician would tell you, even if two variables are correlated (election cycle and S&P500), it does not guarantee causation. WHAT CAN INVESTORS EXPECT DURING 2024 ELECTION YEAR? It is not just historical precedent that suggests upside in the next six months, market conditions also suggest equities could see further upside. 2024 has been a stunning year. Gen AI frenzy has fuelled powerful rally. It has been the strongest tailwind since the dot-com mania. Unlike the dot-gone era, companies are producing eye-popping revenues and profits that support the rally. The recession that never came has been a powerful tailwind that has helped equity markets soar to heights never seen before. Inflation has been easing. Labour markets are tightening. Expectations of rate cuts are rising fast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on 31st July. Markets are pricing 93% chance of the Fed Fund rates remaining unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps). The picture is starkly different for the Fed meeting on 18th September. Markets are pricing >90% chance of the Fed starting to cut the rates by 25bps based on CME FedWatch tool as of close of markets on 12th July 2024. Slowing economy and rising unemployment will trigger the Fed to commence its rate cutting cycle Citi analysts predict that the Fed will slash rates by 200 bps (2% in total) by the summer of 2025. 25bps of rate cuts in eight successive meetings, starting in September. A slowing economy and growing unemployment are cited as the basis for this aggressive rate cut cycle. RATE CUTS WILL PUT MARKETS ON TOP GEAR Two active wars. Extreme weather conditions. Shocks from elections across the globe. None of these have had any dampening effect on equities. Such is the euphoria. Rate cuts will put a turbo charged market on steroids. Investors out to be cautious to assess if rate cuts are already priced into equities given that S&P 500 is up >11% over last three months including 2.8% so far in July. It is essential to make risk mitigated moves in the second half of an election year. WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO INVESTORS HAVE? There are many alternatives. Three common possibilities are (a) Long Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, (b) Long call options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, and (c) Bullish put spread on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures. Futures enable direct, liquid, and efficient access to the index. Long call enables investors to gain from rising S&P 500 and from volatility expansion. Bullish put spread allows the trader to harvest put options premium as the index rises. The bull put spread consists of one short put with a higher strike and one long put with a lower strike. Given the sharp run-up in the index and expected volatility, long calls are not viable. Risk reward ratios for a bullish put are not compelling. Hence, a hypothetical trade set up using futures. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With equity markets in euphoria and rate cuts expected starting in September, US equities are poised to rally further. Historical precedent shows that 2H of election years tends to results in positive returns in the S&P 500. Investors can express this view using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures. Trade set up using Micro E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures expiring in Dec 2024 (MESZ2024) is summarised below: • Entry: 5650 • Target: 6030 • Stoploss: 5400 • Profit at target: USD 1,900 (6030 – 5650 = 380 index points; Profit = 380 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,900) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,250 (5400 – 5650 = 250 index points; Loss = 250 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,250) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
SPQ/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7/15 - Exhaustion Rally PatternGood morning everyone, This new Plan Your Trade video will illustrate why I believe the SPY may target 568~570+ highs over the next two days before rolling downward into a moderate downward/consolidation phase. If you've been following my videos/research, you already know I believe the markets are setting up for another LEG HIGHER. But, first they need to roll into a PAUSE phase over the next 5+ days, then move higher on new momentum. Watch today's video to learn why my SPY Cycle Patterns are so incredible and help traders plan/prepare for big market moves. Here we go... Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX). As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news. 👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. 👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined. The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year. 👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record. The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial. What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?! 👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. 👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components). 👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set. Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024) Price/Book: 2.10 Dividend Yield: 1.44 P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90 EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14 Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921 Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
FX:US2000
by Pandorra
SPX & NDX to SHORT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX Rising wedge pattern forming in S&P 500.....big banks price target forecast for fiscal year 2024 were $4800-$5600 ....eventually hitting all PT mid 2024......S&P500 fell last week and DJI rose last week with 4% percentage difference which means investors or big money booking profits from tech and large weighted stocks in S&P 500 and investing in small caps and value stocks because of low inflation and hoping rate cuts soon. NASDAQ100 just witnessed bearish engulfing candle on thursday 11th july 2024....engulfing previous 4 days candles. Read:https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:1590409c1094b:0-ai-super-bulls-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-divergence-since-2001-tsla-call-buyers-crushed/
SP:SPXShort
by MAFIA_TRADER074
3
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024) **SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September. Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials. Next resistance $5626 and $5655 Next support $5490 and 5385 Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar. Next resistance $105 Support $104 Sentiment = Oversold **Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
S&P500 - Possible Short Term Top in. OANDA:SPX500USD is looking like its in the end of the move higher. Thursday/Friday were very slow after the early week rally even with NFPs giving things a spike. now we look for Monday to give us some clues for the next move. Option 1 - We get a move down to 5320 before one more high up to 5400 area. Option 2 - The top is in on this run from the April low and we get a deeper PB down towards 5200 followed by another ATH around 5500. Option 3 - But less likely, it holds Fridays lows and we get one more run up to 5400 then a deeper correction. Things to watch going into this week with Inflation data Wednesday/Thursday and the next Interest rate decision out of the US Wednesday were they are expected to keep things at the same level. I will also post expected intra-day movements throughout the week. Enjoy the week, watch for Monday clues.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by L_F
Earnings season kicks off: Key reports to watch Earnings season kicks off: Key reports to watch Earnings season kicks into high gear as Novartis, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Progressive, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Abbott, Blackstone, Reliance, and American Express, prepare to report their financial results. Recent weeks have seen a rally in stocks, driven in part by the belief that U.S. firms can deliver earnings robust enough to sustain current valuations. Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have risen steadily over the past three months, reaching a record high of $261.74 per share by the end of June. While the spotlight often falls on the 'magnificent seven' - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla - they are not the sole contributors to this growth. 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported profit increases, marking the highest level since 2022. Another significant factor influencing stocks could be the upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday. Powell's comments will be closely watched, especially in light of last Thursday’s inflation report, which revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 3.0% in June.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. comment: Was I wrong about the highs? Yup. SP500 made a higher high by 1 tick. Do I care? Nope. Still convinced this here is the top and I give the market room to prove me wrong again. Have your stop loss in place and live with it if it gets hit. Part of the game. For me the odds of this being the high for the next weeks to months is greater than markets continuing up. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5700 bull case: Bulls printed another higher high and want to stay above the big bull trend line from 2023-01 and inside the bull wedge which could lead to 5800. If bulls actually manage to do so, no reason they can not print 6000 then but that is as low probability as it gets. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: On the weekly and monthly chart this will probably become a bar with a huge tail above, showing a clear rejection above 5600 and market will stay inside the bull wedge that has been going on for 16 months. Bears want to trap bulls who bought above 5600 and they need a strong daily close below 5550 next. Invalidation is above 5708. outlook last week: short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. → Last Sunday we traded 5621 and now we are at 5664. Bad outlook but still think it will become a bull trap over the next week. short term: Bearish. Called the top and will stand by that call. If bulls do another higher high and close above 5708, so be it. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. Chart update: Nope.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin Is Trading At The Support As Stocks PullsbackHey traders I this video I will take look at NVIDIA which I think it can be moving into a correction and can possibly be headed down for deeper prices. So if today major stocks indicies will have second red day in a row, then possibly next week there can be more risk-off. In such case I think its better to wait on any long ideas on cryptos (short-term), and wait on much better timing for potential long entires, which can be maybe after summer, or during elections when normal markets tend to be in bull run. Additionally, any rate cut later this year can be alos supportive for stocks and other assets. When I look at bitcoin, I think that 50k is very good potential support; if it gets there. Have a nice weekend. Grega
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
SPX Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,572.70. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,289.89 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXShort
by SignalProvider
4
S&P500 Short-term buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) is just after the middle of the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up, supported by both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The Sine Waves have been very efficient at projecting the bottoms and tops (Higher Lows and Higher Highs respectively) throughout the pattern. Right now the index is approaching such a top and once the 4H RSI makes a Double Top, it will be time to take profit. Rough projection, we expect that to be around 5700 and that is our Target unless the RSI double tops earlier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
Matter MattersMarkets are liquid. Liquids, by definition, move. Some of them have moved tremendously well. These liquids got so strong that they are now considered to be gasses. Unfortunately for them, gasses are not very dense. They are light and weak. Apple is the prime example of this important paradigm change. Until ~2005 Apple tried to strengthen and it magnificently did. It reached the optimal point in its cycle. It began as cold hard ice which is hard to move and turned into dense water. In the last 20 years Apple (and many others) turned into hot liquids that have the risk of evaporation into gas. Now these hot markets are reaching the end of their cycle... Gases reach the upper levels of the atmosphere. There they can only turn into rain, or escape into space. Either one of them is bad for markets. The birthplace of bull markets are rivers lakes and oceans. The end of their life is up in the skies. Market Cycles are just like Water Cycles. They cannot escape the cycle. Hot markets can only get colder. Remember, space is very very cold and can easily turn growing gasses into falling rain. Investors are now beginning to fear. And so, they fly to safety. One of these safe havens is Gold, which has performed incredibly these past few months. Inside the equity market however, there are stocks that begin to exhibit incredible signs of resilience (coldness) like BRK.A Has Berkshire reached the "island of stability"? If we plot a volume-weighted candle chart, we realize that Berkshire Hathaway has created a massive plateau. A lake in the mountains. A place for investors to swim into. With ongoing worldwide conflict, investments like these will definitely pull buyers towards them. Apple is not the only weak. It is a mere example of the many "bubbling" companies that face issues. Their growth was an example of easy money loose monetary policies. With high yield rates the survival of these bull markets is not guaranteed. On the other hand Berkshire is not the only one that shows strength. Companies like Exxon Mobil, an energy company, cannot be easily ignored. Now compare this massive brick of volume to the following chart: No words need be spoken. Matter matters. Not all H2O is identical. A solid investment needs ample liquidity and warm water. A long-term investor may seek heavy icebergs, which may take years to melt. A seller or a reckless trader may look into some of the innumerable gas giants to profit on. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYSE:BRK.A
by akikostas
4
SPX: strongly optimisticThe S&P 500 had another steady up-trend week, reaching a new all time highest level on Friday, after the US unemployment data were released. At the level of 5.567 the index is also ending the week, which represents a 0.54% increase from the previous close, and a 16.7% increase for the year. The index opened the week at 5.475 and showed a consistent upward trend. The performance could be attributed to a combination of released economic data and investors sentiment. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1% in May and was by 0.1 percentage points higher from the previous month, which gave a signal to investors that the Fed might cut rates in September, as inflator pressures should further slowdown amid weakness in the jobs market. Aside from released data which investors are treating as positive, there was also positive news from the companies included in the index, which additionally boosted investors sentiment. Tesla had a very good week, whose shares rose by more than 27% for the week. With this gain, Tesla managed to wipe out incurred losses during the year. Strong increase in the price of shares was supported by the reported Q2 vehicle deliveries which were highly above investors estimates. The other tech companies also performed on a positive side, where Apple shares were traded higher by 2%, reaching their all time highest levels. Still, the market's beloved share, Nvidia slid by 2%, on the report over limited growth potential for the chipmaker. Still, Nvidia is ending the week relatively flat.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX