Bulls and Bears zone for 08-02-2024After selling off yesterday, S&P 500 closed at bottom third which could be bearish sign.
Level to watch : 5400 --- 5398
Report to watch:
US Factory Orders 10am EST
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Futures Slide as AMZN & Intel Disappoint; Key Jobs Data Awaited Futures Slide as Amazon and Intel Forecasts Disappoint; Jobs Data Awaited
U.S. index futures fell sharply on Friday following downbeat forecasts from Amazon and Intel. Investors are now awaiting a crucial jobs report for further insights into the labor market amid ongoing concerns over an economic slowdown.
S&P 500 Analysis: Downside !!!
The S&P 500 dropped sharply as noted yesterday and continues to trend bearish.
Bullish Scenario:
For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5,409, potentially reaching 5,438 and 5,460.
Bearish Scenario:
If trading continues below 5,409, the price is expected to drop to 5,372 and 5,345.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5,409
- Resistance Levels: 5,438, 5,460, 5,491
- Support Levels: 5,372, 5,346, 5,320
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5,438 and the support at 5,320.
Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment Rate reports are expected to significantly impact the market.
Previous idea:
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle.
Currently, we have the following disposition:
1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control.
2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave.
3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength.
From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend.
A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : Base Rally After Gap FillToday's BaseRally301 pattern is certainly giving us a run for our money.
I expected a bit of a pullback in early trading today, but I didn't expect the SPY price to fall far enough to CLOSE THE GAP.
This is a great example of staying agile and running with what price gives us.
Now, as we have closed the GAP and still trying to find a base/support level to mount another rally attempt.
Please watch this to learn how important the next 4 hours are related to the future rally trend for the SPY.
Today should be very interesting if the SPY Cycle Pattern plays out as I expect.
This video also includes Gold, Bitcoin, and the QQQ.
Get Some.
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Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update)
The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July.
Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants.
A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action.
Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.”
Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.”
Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows.
But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action.
Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived.
The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent.
Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”.
In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs?
Take that suggestion for what it may be worth.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P 500 - BULLISH DOUBLE BOTTOMHello Traders !
The S&P 500 Index formed a double bottom pattern.
Currently, The neckline is broken !
So, I expect a new bullish move📈
______________
TARGET: 5563.50🎯
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : BaseRally301 Pattern TodayThis video is to help you understand the continued initiation of the Vortex Rally phase and how today's BaseRally301 pattern will play out.
Within this video, I cover the SPY, QQQ, Gold, & BTCUSD.
This should really give you a solid primer as to what I expect the SPY to do today and why I'm waiting for the first 30 to 60+ minutes to play out before looking for any trades.
I expect the SPY to move in a consolidated downward price trend for the first 30-60+ min, then start to move into the rally phase.
Plan your trade. Remember to use the allocation model I shared with everyone yesterday.
A. Pick your Entry Price
B. Pick your Stop Level
C. The difference between your Entry Price and Stop Level becomes your RISK FACTOR (say $2).
D. Pick how much you are willing to RISK AMOUNT on this trade (say $500)
E. Divide Your Risk Amount (D) by the Risk Factor (C): 500 / 2 = 250. You are only allowed to trade 250 shares (or less) to maintain your risk containment levels.
It is pretty simple once you get used to this structure.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis.
The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one.
As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%.
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2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side.
Invalidation is above 5600.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Mid-Day Update - POP May IntensifyPlease watch this video to learn how the already big rally phase (starting the Vortex Rally) may intensify over the next 10+ days.
By my analysis, the SPY could rally to levels above $565 before mid August.
But, the SPY Cycle Patterns still show a moderate price pullback is in order before we move onto any extended rally phase.
I've also made some big changes to the new TradingView tools I've been working on. Very happy with the current mods/adjustments.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Mid-Morning Update - POP DelayedIt looks like the POP pattern was suppressed by yesterday's Israel attack - pushing price downward and really creating a bullish launchpad type fo reversion move.
The Nasdaq is up over 3%
The SPY is up over 1.6%
These are HUGE upward price moves.
In my opinion, this is the POP pattern showing up a day late (disrupted by the Israel/Lebanon attacks yesterday).
In this video I highlight what I think is still a potential for a bit more upward price trending. We will reach a peak today and likely stall downward a bit later in the day.
But for now, this reversion rally seems very strong.
Get some
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Morning UpdateThis video highlights the morning Gap and what to expect before price settles and attempts to move above $553-555 today.
I fully expect the Vortex Rally to move price higher over the next few weeks/months. But, today is going o be critical to see if Price can attempt to move above the recent resistance area near $554-555. If price moves up to that level and rejects (downward) - I would still consider that a positive price reaction to the recent selling pressure.
So, today and tomorrow are going to be very important related to Fibonacci Price Theory and watch to see if price CAN attempt to move to new Unique/Ultimate highs.
So far, the Gap higher (to a new Unique high) is a very positive move.
One of my friends wrote to me this morning saying his "lotto" call options (purchased yesterday near the close) resulted in a 1400% gain this morning. Love this.
I love seeing traders use my tools/research and attempt to better their skills.
That is a big Lotto Win for cheap $9 call options on the SPY.
Let's see how it plays out today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-31 : Counter-Trend Base RallyFirst, I got up a bit late this morning. Been pushing really hard over the last few weeks. I guess I needed the rest.
Next, this video is very important for ALL TRADERS.
I want all of you to learn the proper skills to manage your trading, risk controls, and emotional aspects of trading, and really learn the skills to MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS.
I know you may never fully master these, but knowing how to use these tools and how they can help you is very important.
I'll keep this short, we are likely going to see a rally to to $553-555 in the SPY, then watch the price roll downward later in the day.
Go Get Some
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SPx Amid Focus on Fed Decision, ADP Jobs Report, & Meta Earning Stock Index Futures Rise as Focus Shifts to Fed, U.S. ADP Jobs Report, and Meta Earnings
S&P 500 Analysis: Consolidation Expected Today
The market is poised for potential volatility as traders await the Federal Reserve's rate decision, the U.S. ADP jobs report, and Meta's earnings. The S&P 500 is expected to consolidate today, with key movements influenced by these events.
Bullish Scenario: If the price remains stable above 5,491, it is likely to reach 5,512. Breaking above this level could push the price further to 5,549.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and stabilization below 5,491 could lead to a decline towards 5,460.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5,491
- Resistance Levels: 5,512, 5,525, 5,549
- Support Levels: 5,460, 5,438, 5,409
Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support level at 5,460 and the resistance level at 5,550.
SPX Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,464.03.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,282.36 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle.
Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen:
1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or
2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months.
Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-30 - Pop Pattern Disrupted By NewsToday's POP pattern, which I suggested would present a very solid Bullish trending opportunity, was disrupted by news of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
I truly believe today would have resulted in a very strong reversion rally had the markets no been disrupted by the new conflict.
Still, we need to play the markets and not rely exclusively on my SPY Cycle Patterns.
In this video, you'll see me go over a number of symbols (SPY/QQQ/Gold/Crude Oil, others) and show you some of the new tools I've been working on to help traders stay on the right side of market trends.
I still expect the Vortex Rally to take place over the next 30 to 90+ days - building strength as the US markets trend upward.
I believe the conflicts and global economic uncertainty will drive capital into US-Dollar-based assets over the next 12+ months - creating the Vortex Rally.
This will also drive hedge instruments higher.
As the US markets shift into the preferred safe-haven asset class (again), we should have nearly unlimited opportunities for great trades over the next 12 to 24+ months.
Get some.
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S&P 500 - BEARISH MOVEHi Traders !
The S&P 500 Index Failed to create a new higher high !
The support line is broken !
So, I Expect a bearish move📉
_____________
TARGET: 5355.00🎯
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-30 : Bullish POP PatternToday's POP Pattern in Carryover mode suggests the SPY will attempt to move above $550-551 on moderate bullish trending.
I believe the way the patterns are set up, the price will attempt a moderate rally with the POP pattern. Then, move into mild consolidation (downward trending) on tomorrow's Counter-trend Bottom-Rally Start. Then, move into a moderately explosive upward/bullish phase on Thursday/Friday with the BaseRally301 and Breakaway patterns.
Overall, I see the SPY/QQQ moving into the new Vortex Rally Phase over the next 30 to 90+ days, which will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
I'm only trying to predict one week at a time. The last time I did this, I tried to predict three weeks into the future. The more time I include (further out into the future), the more likely my predictions will be incorrect regarding price location/range.
So, we will keep this simple - going one week at a time.
I hope you guys are benefiting from all my hard work. It took me over 20 years to learn enough to figure out these SPY Cycle Patterns. You guys are getting a taste of them for Free on TradingView.
What do you think so far?
Get some.
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SPX 500's Technical Retreat: Support at 5,290?US SPX 500 – technical overview
Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.
R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong
US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Though we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD 7-29 - Prepare For Tomorrow's POPThis is an end-of-day recap of the Flat/Down SPY Cycle Pattern - which played out perfectly.
As I warned, this type of pattern suggests the SPY will stay in a consolidated range and attempt to drift downward throughout the day. This type of pattern presents a very difficult day for day traders.
Tomorrow's POP pattern should be very exciting. I'm reading the POP pattern as a Carryover of trending.
Because of this, I'm suggesting tomorrow's POP pattern may present a strong rally trend - possibly attempting to move above $554-555 on the SPY.
If my research is accurate, tomorrow should be a great day for day traders and present some real opportunities for profits.
Hope you are all enjoying my work. Let me know what you think.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 7/29 - Flat/Down PatternThis mid-day update highlights the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction and how to trade short-price swings as price contests into a sideways channel.
The Flat/Down pattern is usually a congesting type of price pattern. Price trends are smaller and traders need to learn to adjust to taking quick profits.
These types of days are sometimes difficult for traders who are used to swinging for the fences. Days like today mean "grab profits quickly and try to eliminate risks within the first 10-20 minutes."
I highlight this method in the video showing my new MENT Pressure System setups.
Pay attention to how the SPY Cycle Patterns seem to be aligning again (after the Kamala-Crush). this is good to see, as we want the SPY/QQQ price to move back in alignment with the SPY Cycle Patterns after the recent disruption.
Looks like we may slide into a sideways price trend throughout the rest of the day.
Get some.
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S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5350 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5350 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
