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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P500 Why the volatility shouldn't scare you.Five months ago (March 21, see chart below), we published a comparison analysis on the S&P500 index (SPX), warning of a medium-term correction but at the same time setting a long-term 6500 Target: As you can see, the fractal comparison of March 2024 with March 2017 worked very well and this is why the recent July - August correction shouldn't scare you. The 2022 - 2024 sequence continues to replicate to a solid degree the 2015 - 2017 period, which after holding both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing and bouncing on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, it rallied towards the 3.0 Fib. Check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences are within the two fractals. At the moment we are just past the RSI Double Bottom formation (August 14 2017 and August 05 2024 respectively), which should initiate a rally that will peak deep into the overbought zone in Q1 2025. As a result, our long-term Target of 6500 is intact, and as the title says, the volatility shouldn't scare you and make you diverge from the long-term goal and perspective. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
Yield curve Before Hyperinflation (QE US BONDS) BTC & SPY The global bond market is what dictates the liquidity to stocks, its what dictates the world its what starts wars and its what ends wars. Currently I see many post focused on "recession" "market crash" when the giant elephant in the room is the global bond market and the US reserve dollar that is currently in danger. Why must we start foreign sanctions and battles with a country beginning with R? its very simple. There's a fight for the dollars survival. Covid 19 pushed the FRED past the point of no return and there is no going back to the structured system that was already falling apart. Treasury Interest is now getting at dangerous levels of unpayable amounts, Government Debt is rising by the trillions in a parabolic move that is getting steeper by the month. What has to happen? The FRED will force the US power to globally cut rates in all major economies while the FRED also has to start cutting back to zero while halting the fall of the DXY (forcing military action on other countries who do not cut rates and hinder their local currency) The last time in history something like this has happened was during the 1927-1931 period of discount rate blunders. US CPI is indicating we have entered a new stage of no turning back and this is the danger of printing money, QE will be forced in the nature of Yield Curve Control and the excess liquidity and currency will debase the markets violently in an upward notion, following this people will end up panicking being on the sidelines entering the market with heavy leverage and borrowed funds at lower rates. This is a type of scenario that would collapse Rome, Would end the Soviet Union. Expect dangerous policies, socialist developments, anti ownership, sparks of new wars. Only when you price this event in something like Bitcoin you can then re evaluate how much money will have to be printed to keep up this momentum without causing a depression with unemployment rates sky rocking and the Government defaulting on the debt.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉 SELL IT! The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view. • September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn. • December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn. When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective. Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review). As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on: 1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price. 2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control. 3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction. Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it. Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective): 1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern 2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high 3. Month should close red (below 552 ) Until then we’re in a bull market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
ES/SPX Levels & Targets Aug 26thOn Thursday/Friday, I called the 5588-93 buy zone with a target of 5653, and ES has hit it four times since Friday morning. As of now: No changes—I'm still holding my runners from Friday mentioned in plan. The 5642 level, which has been tested twice but remains weak, is the key support. If we can hold above that, I’m eyeing 5672 and the 5687-90 range as potential targets. If 5642 breaks, I’ll look to sell around 5630. Full Plan for today was posted Sunday Morning
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why. From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000. Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
SPX: pivoting is “nearing”The Jackson Hole Symposium is a yearly event closely watched by the markets. The speech held by Fed Chair Powell, revealed that the Fed is “nearing” its first rate cut. Markets are now almost sure that the Fed will make such a decision at their September FOMC meeting. The US equity markets reacted positively to Powell`s rhetoric, bringing the S&P 500 to the level of 5.634. The index gained 1,45% for the week, and is nearing its all time highest level reached during July this year at the level of 5.668. Once again tech stocks were the ones that pushed the market to the upside. Nvidia and Tesla were higher by 4% over the week. Also other stocks were finishing the week higher, supported by the investor`s expectations that the environment of increased interest rates will support the future growth of companies. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank noted their expectations that the eroded interest rates on cash holdings will impact investors to switch their holdings back to the equity market, in expectation of higher returns. Still, it should be considered that some investors are still expecting a recession in the US.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1928 Has Begun Early, Powell Has Given In. QE 3.0 The linchpin was Japan, the Japan interest rate scare has started the panic with the FRED. 1. US Debt spiral is 34.5T. 2. US Debt Interest at 1T and the system has buckled. 3. MMF at all time high 4. Majority still believe a yield curve that has not worked since 2008 will cause a recession. 5. The USA cannot have a recession or it defaults on its debt. Rates have to be cut and fast, MMF will start pouring into the market, cheap credit will start reinflating all assets. QE 3.0 will be commenced shortly to deal with the US Debt death spiral. This is the biggest financial crisis around the corner, people will short it who don't understand the USD currency is about to be debased by figures we can't imagine. This is the end game and it could last years. Its fun speculating the deflationary crash down, where's the debasement inflationary melt up?
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
10
Powell Says "We're Cutting Rates" - S&P Performance MixedA nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current markets, but we're about to find out. September 18 = 1st cut since 2019 (pre-COVID) and we've seen some impressive booms and busts since 2018. It's pretty remarkable really. The bull markets seem unhealthy, and the bear markets seem more violent and aggressive, but end sooner. How great or how nasty does it get? Let's figure it out and trade accordingly.
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
240823 Market Outlook $SPX $DJI $VOO $SPY $QQQChart S&P overlay Fed interest rate a few conclusions: 1. Stocks can rise and fall throughout rate cut cycle; 2. Rise in stocks is usually associated with minimum interest rate in the cycle; 3. US stocks were rising throughout rate hike cycle in later years; 4. More money supply management tools were introduced in last quarter century like QE policy; 5. More tools like Circuit Breaker were introduced to stop panic selling in US stocks since Financial crisis 2008; 6. The market has become more certain and efficient; 7. Investors must always recognize the market situation, cuz US management is research based and one cycle is different from another. A new prosperous cycle is enact at the moment. Cheers
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
S&P500 / Rise in Anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole AddressStock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The S&P 500 recently pulled back from its resistance at 5643 and is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 5584 and 5620, awaiting a decisive breakout. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 5644 is necessary to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at 5675. If 5675 is breached, it could confirm a bullish trend continuation. Bearish Scenario: Should the price remain below 5584 and close a 4-hour candle beneath this level, it could signal the onset of a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 5525 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5602 Resistance Levels: 5620, 5644, 5676 Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5460 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5620 and 5460. Current Trend: Bearish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame... We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations. Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy. Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance. When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line. WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW - I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade. On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
SP:SPX
by I3ig_Trades
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Final Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference. If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows. Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high. The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September. SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
SP:SPXLong
by AlyaAkram