S&P500 (ES) - GLOBAL FORECAST on 2017y.We suggest two variants:
1) if Extension in 3-d wave - short term correction & uptrend! (Inval.lev - 2077.00)
2) if LDT - Correction & uptrend! (Inval.lev - 1810.00)
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Sp500short
SP500 Swing High - Short opportunitySimple short trade setup. Seeing resistance at the 2272 level, let's see if it works again.
Look for an hourly bar to close below the green line - breaking the inside bar setup - and enter short. Use lower timeframes if you prefer to refine your entry.
Target lower red line initially, but beyond that look for new lows. There's a good case that a reversal is due on longer timeframes too, so could turn into a great entry if well managed.
S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16)
closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time.
Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer"
How ever,
i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself.
From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
If Trump winsIf trump wins I expect a market crash, around -8% from the current index price to summer 2015 lows, around 1920. To enter a short position though, I will wait for the MACD on weekly to send a sell signal, at which point the loss for the markets could extend further than 8%. I will make sure to keep an eye on 200DMA because a new president means that many long-term investors will be shifting their portfolio composition.
S&P500: Elections doomsday?Let me start off by saying I don't think a crash (-10%+) will occur before election day. Still as experienced in previous election cycles, usually two to one week before election day markets tend to sell-off as there is high uncertainty associated with presidential elections. I am basing this possible short play totally on technical and news factors; namely elections. The MACD on the daily is about to crossover and the stoch managed to reverse before 75%. This combined with the fact that the price broke the diagonal support (fib) and that the time cycles point to a new DCL on NOV 8th lead me to believe this week will offer an opportunity for shorts, mainly volatily calls to make you some money.
S&P 500 - THE HIGHS & LOWS OF THE PAST; WHERE WILL IT FALL NEXT?I am watching, as many are, the current US indexes and their recent all-time highs. We've hd record day independently but Friday they all hit new highs. People I know are shorting SP500, buying gold like crazy, etc. but though this is an epic day, it might not be done climbing yet. Now, I agree that things will reverse. But it's a matter of when that will secure a good entry into any trade. You could add slowly to your position in case you are not right at the peak entry or wait for it to show signs of pullback. Personally, I will most likely only trade metals. I thought of shorting DOW30 or ES since on margin it would make a great profit but indexes require a different type of study and attention as oppose to just Gold or Silver (though not both are the same either in perfect unison).
NO TRADE HERE - Just something interesting to watch as time moves on for years.
Shorterm MEGAPHONE on SPXCorrect me if I'm wrong but I see:
a - bottom support
b - top support
c - megaphone pattern
d - cycles (blue lines)
So I see such scenarios:
D - PRINT PRINT PRINT by FED friends and rise right to the moon ;)
C - small correction and then moon
A & B - Big drop as shown, with crash perspective
SL 2248 or none
TP 1970
RR ratio: 3.13
Please let me know what do You think guys.
S&P 500 MEDIUM TERM SHORT - Fundamental and TechnicalTVC:SPX
The S&P 500 composite index reached 2129.79 today, just a point away from its all time high at 2130.82.
This should provide a good place to short the S&P, because:
Fundamentally: the outlook for the US economy is strong, with good job growth - however , the Federal Reserve should now look to increase interest rates slowly, which should gradually weigh on the stock market.
Years of cheap borrowing will come to an end, with an inevitable crash in overvalued junk bonds.
Coupled with the risks of Brexit and low oil prices in the medium term, stocks remain overvalued.
Technically: SPX will face strong resistance at 2130.
It has been rejected from 2130 in July 2015 - exactly when the Federal Reserve was contemplating raising interest rates.
Below 2130-2135, SPX500 is bearish and may fall to 1800 in the medium term if the current economic climate persists.
long above 2105 short below 2080 at these stage spx is on a no go zone , on up side price action is sitting on big resistance around 2095 and a fib level a couple point above that and below it face as support and it quit a BIG one that have been defended for quit some time now but it will be very interesseting to see wich side it's going to actually go , on either side they are big target long side all time high short side around 1600 area would be kind of an ideal target for LONG time swing long !!
Long Volatility for the upcoming whatever term. UVXY over $30It seems we're at the inflection point once again. Maybe a day or two out from SMAs and MACDs turning positive for UVXY, and these big spikes in block trades are usually a precursor it seems to market sell offs - big players taking profits likely.
I have multiple other charts that support this view with OnbalanceVol/Accum/distribution; potential slide in oil, resistance in gold and so on and so forth. Granted, only chart can be linked!
I expect UVXY to go well past $30 in the coming 1-2 weeks. This COULD change, and this MAY NOT be the actual bottom for UVXY, and I would hedge the position in both sides, but I'll be wary to add if indeed this is the next bottom, and it's a higher high, in regards to S.D. and True average price
SPX March 11th and forward, long term edition. This is a longer term idea based off charting done from 2008 until now, and where we expect to go from here.
For this interested, earlier today I did a shorter term outlook using daily candles, for those interested the link is: , or you can find it in my profile. Feedback and constructive criticism is always appreciated, happy trading!
SP500 Sell SignalWe can enter a sell trade for the S&P 500 index if it breaks the highlighted triangle pattern and settle below it.
Target 1: 1910
Target 2: 1860
Stop Loss: If it turns out to be a false break and the index closes back above 2040.