The end is near! 🔚 🌍 The earth is turning against us, and it's time for us to board the spaceships leaving for Kepler-186f. Just kidding, it's not that bad!
However, we still have to expect another -15% in the S&P500 for the upcoming weeks. Our target area for the correction lies between 2900 and 2650. From there, we expect major support by the bulls and a turnaround towards higher quotations. The next hurdle the bears face on their way down is the last low at around 3200 points. This support has to be broken for a final confirmation of the correction.
What's your expectation for the upcoming weeks?
Stay save and happy trading!
Sp500short
Biggest Short Correction in Years (BE CAREFUL)We are very close to experiencing the biggest correction in years in the main US indexes.
We can observe a clear divergence between the index dollar and the S&P500, when it should be a mirror. Something says something smells bad.
We must bear in mind that the SP500 is at a significant top and that it is highly unlikely to break it due to the current social, economic and political situation. Also, all growth has been financed by the FED so there is a clear disconnect from reality and current affairs.
Analyzing this scenario, we are seeing a potential strong long-term pullback, probably in a few months.
- I would like you to comment on your ideas and opinions, that enriches us.
SPY/SPX - Road MapThe market tries to give hints about what direction it's heading by giving us pivot points. If we look back over the past couple months, we can see a point of confluence where price action looks like it got into a really bad accident. Immediately prior, it took a spill and formed an ascending triangle. The point of confluence is the juxtaposition of FANG (and similar stocks) and the other 99% of the S&P. FANG is flying high every day. The other 99% of the S&P (the dead weight) felt resigned to accumulate a nice steady upward trajectory (ascending triangle) -- you can see these patterns all over the index. The high flying tech stocks however, are a component of the S&P and they've made the index 'drunk'. Hence the the overly zealous breakout of the the ascending wedge. But the index is schizophrenic, it has two dichotomous identities. And we see that with the quick rise and fall of Apple paired with the steadily rising banks and manufacturers. With big tech taking a back seat, I think the S&P is reverting to the other 99%o of the index. Monday and Tuesday will tell if we see a bounce off of the top of the ascending triangle and further test of it's ascending leg. This is the image we expect of a market coping with a pandemic, social & political upheaval, and major unknowns (yet cautious optimistic) about the economy.
SP500- rallies should be soldAs I expected, 3500 zone is strong resistance for SP500 and with this new fail it became even stronger.
I expect a drop to 3200 zone but, considering the 50% rally from March's low, I would t be surprised of a fall to 3k zone till the end of the year.
Sell rallies around 3500 could be a good strategy
SPX weekly certainly seems bearish right nowI know I've been early on this too many times. I'm also aware than many think "What bad news could possibly bring this thing down?"
Well, it won't take much news at all if the institutions want out quick.
We have triple weekly bear divergence on the RSI (quadruple if you want to go back to January of 2018). I think sooner rather than later we are set for an epic fall here. All bets are off if we get another high, but this geometry/candle topping action is telling me that something is brewing and most people are not ready for it.
SP500 Weekly ReviewSo we took a loss on SP this week when we sold on the bearish rejection of the top trendline, attempting to catch the right shoulder.
Indices were tricky this week with trump but yet again our analysis was pinpoint for the buy scenario on the close above the invalid head with targets provided!
SP500- A new drop to 3k zone is my ideaAfter reaching an all time high at 3600, SP corrected to 3200 zone and now is in a correction of this first leg down.
I expect rallies to be caped at 3.5k zone and a new leg down can start from there.
My target for SP in the medium term is 3k zone but with upcoming elections I would be very careful with shorting US Indice
S&P 500 to break 3405-3415 to make a new HIGH? Otherwise BEARSS&P 500 futures are the leading indicator of the market's health and where we could be headed. Currently we saw the market pop right off the support structure form the 100-day EMA where institutional buying started to come in again.
There are 2 key levels we are watching for currently. The first is at the 3220 or so where the 100-day moving average and the institutional money started to come in again. The next is at the 3405 to 3415 where we have prior rejection for resistance.
Price is currently pinned between these two levels and we're wary of how these levels will be interacted with. The bears could take control at the 3405 again as the big money is expecting. However, we could just see the strong pop above and that alone will probably push us into a new ATH.
Where we will see optimism into the election. The other option is to see if the 3400 level holds out as strong resistance for sellers to enter the market and push price lower to break the 100-day moving average as anticipated.
The downside is the higher probability scenario because of big money selling coming into the market from volatility and uncertainty. The fact that it is unknown when the President will be chosen means that VIX is likely to increase and that a lot of traders and investors are moving to cash. There is a lot of repositioning and it seems like a lot of volatility coming into the market throughout the next few months which means we're probably going to see downside back under 3200. Which means the target will be 3135.
These ideas are for educational purposes only, this should not be taken as investment advice.
Weekly Market Focus 09-28: S&P500, WTI Crude, OJ, EUR, AUD, JPY
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S&P500 Trade Setup --------------------------------
S&P500 Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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WTI Crude OIl Trade Setup -----------------------
WTI Crude Oil Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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Orange Juice Trade Setup --------------------------------
Orange Juice Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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EURAUD Trade Setup --------------------------------
EURAUD Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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AUDJPY Trade Setup --------------------------------
AUDJPY Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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Other JPY Crosses -----------------
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SPY Hidden Bearish Divergence is BackVery clear on the 1 hr and now 4 hr charts for some hidden bearish divergence (possible continuation of trend) which was selling. We hit the .382 fib from previous high to low. I am buying puts for my next target which is the .382 fib to the downside around 306-305 area.
It is possible that we move slightly higher to the .50 or even hit a full measured move of the possible falling wedge but i have what i need to start shorting
Just a hick up on the way to 4k?
We think not. Our primary expectation is, that the SP500 is geared for a bigger correction as indicated on the chart. Our target is the region around 2900 points. From there we expect new all time highs in the long run. Right now the bears should keep the index below 3502 points. If we see a break out above this resistance our primary scenario is no longer valid. The outcome would be quotations above 3600. The following days will be crucial as we are approaching the target area for wave B in orange, where the resversal should happen.
What do you think, new ATHs or drop below 3k?
Happy Trading !
3200 are coming! The fear of a new corona wave swept through Wall Street on Monday, and the S&P500 fell back to levels from early August. The downward trend that has been going on for weeks since the high in the 3600-point range is thus continuing and reached our target zone.
However, further turbulence must still be taken into consideration. On the one hand, expectations regarding the resilience of the US economy are partially too high. On the other hand, the risks posed by the turmoil through the upcoming presidential election in early November are often underestimated. Further, the dispute over the successor to the late Constitutional Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg (aka Notorious RBG) could occupy the Senate so much that an agreement on a new economic stimulus program that has long been hoped for could be delayed for weeks.
Even though the Market reached the first target box, a lower level in the 3200 points range still needs to be expected before the S&P500 climbs back up. In both scenarios, we anticipate a bounce to at least 3440 points. Should the bulls not push through the resistance between 3434 – 3501 points, significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points become the next target.
In summary, we expect the S&P500 to bounce back toward 3430 points. Should the bulls not push through 3434 – 3501 points, a significant downward move towards 2800 points must be anticipated, bevor the decline since the highs is completed.
What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller? Feel free to share your work and let us know in the comments section!
Wishing you all successful trades.
It's Monday, not doomsday! ☕
Starting the week, the S&P500 continues the primary expectation and reaches the first target area for the current decline. On Sunday, the U.S. reported 32,186 new coronavirus cases, and several European countries have also seen a steady increase in COVID 19 cases over the past 24 hours spreading pessimism amongst investors. The World Health Organization predicts that daily coronavirus deaths in Europe will increase in October and November, raising concerns about a possible second lockdown in Europe. Meanwhile, several major banks have reportedly transferred large amounts of illegal funds over a period of almost two decades. HSBC, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, and Bank of New York Mellon are among the banks involved in the report.
The minimum target for the current decline remains within the range of 3200 points. Below 3049 points, the way is paved for significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points. Since we expect new all-time highs in the long term, we will use the current drop to open long positions and thus position ourselves for the next rally.
In conclusion, we expect the current drop to reach the area of 3200 points before a bounce can be expected. We give the alternative scenario a 38% probability. The primary expectation remains that the index will reach a lower level of 2800 points, which is confirmed below 3049 points. However, in both scenarios, we expect at least a corrective bounce from the yellow target box, which will push the market back up towards 3440 points.
Grab some coffee, be awesome, and enjoy your trading day!