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Sp500short

Recession will push S&P500 down further - Bearish Stock MarketLooking at historic recession losses of the S&P 500 and given the current market conditions pointing to a recession one has can derive more downward movement for the stock market. Looking at the S&P 500 there is still a lot of room downwards to an overall 20-40% correction down into the recession from the last ATH. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXShort
by CarpeMomentum
SP500 in sitting on support, breakdown is imminentIn my previous analysis regarding SP500, I said that I expect a drop under the 4k figure and things are getting closer and closer to that moment. Looking at the price action for the past 4 months, we can see that after a very bad start of the year, stocks have tried to recover, but sellers capped gains in the 4.5-4.6k zone. A new attempt of recovery started in late March, but again, sellers took control in the same 4.5-4.6k zone. Going further into last week, we can see that after reaching support again, SP500 rebounded on We and Th, just to sell off hard on Friday. All this price development, for me at least, is very bearish and I expect a break of support. In the medium term, my target remains 3.5k, September and October's 2020 highs, and also Fibo 50% for the start of "pandemic" rise, and only SP500 back above 4.6k is bullish in my book. Of course, also my strategy remains the same: Sell Rallies
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
18
SP500 can drop under 4k and enter bear market territorySP500 has started 2022 badly and things look like will get worth. After an initial drop to 4.1k, the index tried to recover, but 4.5k proved to be a strong ceiling and SP500 rolled back down. Now the index is trading in February's low and I expect a continuation to the downside. A drop under 4k would be significant for SP500, both psychological and marking more than a 20% drop (bear market, at least by the book). In such a case, panic selling is a very probable scenario, and the price can drop fast to 3.5 support. I'm very bearish SP500 and I will remain as long as the price is under 4.5k
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Buckle up as SPX history's ride is not overUpon research, waves ending in C33 (our current situation) perform wave extensions greater than 150.98% for the S&P 500 index. A cluster of wave extension maneuvers occur around 200% for this same dataset. Inside of Intermediate wave 3, where we should be now, we are also inside of Minor wave 3. Minor wave 1’s name structured ends in C31. It began shortly after the open on April 21 at 4512.94. It then dropped 312.12 points and ended before noon eastern time on April 25. Mathematically speaking 312.12 x 150.98% = 471.239. We would then take this value and subtract it from the level Minor wave 1 began from to determine a possible bottom for Minor wave 3. 150.98% could place the bottom around 4041.70. However, 150% is the minimum drop according to historical study of the index. The maximum drop is 401.66% of Minor wave 1 which would bound our possible drop here to 3259.28. I think we are safe from the latter, however, the most common drop zone is between 192.65% and 202.84%. I like strong pockets of data as long as they are realistic which is the case here. This means the index is not done with quick large drops. We could get below 3911.64 while remaining above 3879.84 within days. This is a minimum drop of 263.57 more points based on today’s close (3879.84 bottom = drop of 295.37).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
The bottom is in sight, well sort of...Another wave completed (Intermediate 2) gives us a better idea of where Intermediate wave 3, Primary wave 3 and Cycle wave 2 will end. I now have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave C (began March 29, 2022), Intermediate wave 3 (began April 21, 2022) and Minor wave 1. The shorthand for this wave is 1532C31 which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. We are either in Minor wave 1 or a sub-wave thereof (Minute wave 1 is the other likely wave). The first thing I have tried to complete is identifying the current sub-wave structure, but the past two days have almost traded in a straight diagonal movement downward. This below chart tries to identify impulse wave characteristics. My indicators at the bottom attempt to find the signals of a wave 3 and also look for the best agreement in the indicators. I have placed preliminary wave numerals on the chart as well, but these will most likely change as the wave plays out. The most agreement for wave 3 is shortly after noon Eastern time from Friday April 22. The most significant non-diagonal movement occurred at the end of the day on April 22. This could be the final drop in Minute wave 1 and possibly Minute wave 2 action culminating in the beginning of Minute wave 3. The sell-off on Friday does make a Monday rally possible, but it will not last long if it occurs. WHERE WILL INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 END? The models have Intermediate wave 3 lasting 6, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, or 19 trading days based on waves ending in 2C3. Model agreement above 21 is weak while the strongest agreement is on 7 trading days followed by 19 and then 16. Seven trading days would put the low on May 2. The Fed meets May 3-4 and will likely raise rates 0.75% or higher. The bottom may occur once their decision is public the final day. May the 4th be with you in finding the bottom. A method for finding the bottom include wave movement extensions from the respective wave 1 movement. Intermediate wave 1 began at 4637.30 and dropped 255.96. Typical Intermediate waves ending in 2C3 move 117.97 – 143.91% of what wave 1 moved. 143.91% would put the bottom at 4268.95. Friday’s low was 4267.62. The problem is that we are already at these levels and there is clearly more time in Intermediate wave 3. There are some historical outliers at 420% and 950%. A Fibonacci extension at 161.8% (4223.16) will occur too quickly as well. These outliers and our current drop hint that this method will not help. Scaling back and studying waves ending in C3 alter duration slightly. The most agreement is on 12 trading days followed by 7 and 19 days. Using the wave 1 movement extension method also provides more reasonable price targets which is 263 - 363% of wave 1’s movement. This would put the end of Intermediate 3 between 3706.73 – 3964.07. There is strong agreement between 3947 - 3964. This indicates we still have at least 300 plus points to drop over the next week or two. Intermediate wave 3 will ultimately be composed of 5 Minor waves. As each wave completes, I will continue to provide updates as to potential target bottoms and timeframes. WHERE WILL CYCLE WAVE 2 AND PRIMARY WAVE C END? CYCLE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Cycle wave 2 which began in January could last 45, 47, 49, 58, 68, 75, 78, 81, 85, 90, 95, 101, 104, 110, 111, 118, 125, or 150 trading days according to my models. Strongest model agreement is on 90 days. Wave 1’s length is usually 9.259 to 10.11 times larger than wave 2. This would have placed Cycle wave 2’s length around 45 days. The common smaller ratio for 1 to 2’s length is 2.529 to 4.333. This could put the length between 104-178 trading days. Friday April 22 was day 75 and we are clearly not done yet. Most C waves drop below the bottom of their wave A. Since Primary wave A bottomed at 4114.65, Primary wave C should drop to this level at a minimum. At the quickest we would be 2-3 days from this point, however, we are still in Minor wave 1 down and require a Minor wave 2 moving up. This means we are reasonably a week or two at the fastest from ending Cycle 2. My models are projecting even longer. All this to say, Cycle wave 2 will likely be longer than 90 trading days and likely over 100 in length. Overall projected price targets see the most agreement with a bottom around 3850, however the range of potential bottoms are strong between 3571 and 4075. Wave 2 tends to retrace the movement of wave 1 between 19.89% - 76.95%, with most occurring around 24 - 46%. With Cycle wave 1 gaining 2626.76, a retracement of these magnitudes would have the following bottoms for Cycle wave 2: 19.89% puts the bottom at 4296.157 25% = 4161.93 30% = 4030.592 35% = 3899.254 40% = 3767.92 45% = 3636.578 Wave 1’s movement in relation to wave 2 is typically 1.299 to 5.02 times larger. On average wave 1 is 3.138 times larger than wave 2 which could see a bottom around 3981.53. PRIMARY WAVE A DATA SAYS… Primary wave A’s length typically accounts for 19 – 38% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 91 to 176 days long. A strong reoccurring pocket in this dataset could make it 91 to 118 days long. Primary wave A’s move commonly accounts for 70.81 – 79% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3824.45 – 3927.40. PRIMARY WAVE B DATA SAYS… Primary wave B’s length typically accounts for 12 – 50% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 46 to 178 days long. Two strong reoccurring pockets in this dataset could make it 106 to 108 days long or 168 to 178 days long. Primary wave B’s move commonly accounts for 32.91 – 61.2% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3230.50 – 3964.62. A strong reoccurring pocket is 3230.50 to 3283.22. The strength of this pocket cannot be ignored; however, it appears to be an outlier next to all of the other potential bottoms throughout this analysis. It would also require Intermediate wave 3 and wave 5 to drop many hundreds of points beyond typical behavior to achieve it. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 1 tends to contribute around 27% to the length of the larger wave it resides inside. This means Primary wave C could last 37 days. This aligns with Cycle wave 2 lasting 95 days. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C1 typically account for 5 – 41% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 24 and 190 days. The median length of Primary wave C could last 33 (making Cycle wave 2 - 91) days while the average would be 41 (Cycle wave 2 would be 99). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 2 tends to contribute around 10% to the length of the larger wave. This mean Primary wave C could last 55 days and end by mid-June. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C2 typically account for 3 – 12% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 50 and 188 days. The median could be 72 days while the average is 55. These results appear much higher than other data and is among the least reliable for this analysis. Similarly considered on the movement side. The bottom for Cycle wave 2 could be between 1831 - 4457 with an average around 4207 and a stronger data pocket between 3911-4227. Based on the other information throughout the modeling and this analysis, the low end is most likely in this case. CONCLUSION The likely future is contained in this analysis. Intermediate wave 3 will finish first and my target based on this data somewhere around May 4 and below 3968. Wave 4 will briefly move up before we finalize the bear market near the end of May. My current expectations is the low will be no lower than 3600, but we shall see once Intermediate waves 3 and 4 end. I hope you like this and feel free to follow me for more.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S & P 500 - Cash: 17-4-2022S & P 500 - Cash: Potential Breakdown From Bearish Pin Bar + Multiple Inside Bar (Combo Setup) Price Action: Price formed a Bearish Pin Bar + Multiple Inside Bar (Combo Setup) just under the 4421 – 4488 short-term resistance area late last week. Price formed a Bearish Pin Bar Signal mid-last week (We suggested trading this signal in April 13th, members' daily newsletter). Potential Trade Idea: We are now considering selling on a breakdown below the current Bearish Pin Bar + Multiple Inside Bar (Combo Setup).
UShort
by UnknownUnicorn393254
Will market land hard over next 2 days?INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 We are potentially wrapping up Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 5 at the beginning of Primary wave C. We appear to have completed Minor wave 1 with a low by 12:30 on April 1. Minor wave 2 finished in the first hour of trading on April 5. Minor wave 3 bottom before 13:30 on April 6. Minor wave 4 may have ended today, during the final 30 minutes of the session. There is a chance Minor wave 4 ends tomorrow. This would require a new high above 4521.16. Right now, wave 4 has moved 49.59% that which Minor wave 3 moved. Although 50% is not an official Fibonacci percent, it is a historical reversal price. The biggest forecast metric for Elliott Wave Theory is the length of wave 3. In the current setup, if my wave count is accurate, has Minor wave 3 shorter than Minor wave 1. This means Minor wave 5 cannot be longer than Minor wave 3. Minor wave 3 concluded in 11 hourly trading bars. This means whenever wave 5 begins, it cannot be longer than 11 hours in length. If wave 4 has ended, 11 hours begin tomorrow. There are 7 hourly trading bars (in the 6.5 hour trading session). Minor wave 5 could end no later than 12:30 on April 11. It is also possible Minor wave 5 ends tomorrow. For this to occur, the index will most likely drop below the low (and endpoint) from Minor wave 3 which was 4450.04. At the very least, this requires a drop of 1.57%. This is certainly possible in one day, but something significant geopolitically or economically would likely have to occur. My initial targets are between 4378.34 and 4435.70, although my models have strong agreement at 4442. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 When Minor wave 5 ends, so does Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 will be comprised of a three wave (ABC) which moves upward. This will most likely occur next week being a holiday shortened week. Economic calendar is light and earnings season does not kick off until the final trading day next week with the banks. This wave could last 1-2 weeks, until the full earnings picture is realized (forecast not good). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where I am forecasting the most significant downward movement. This could be due to Russia-Ukraine, but it will also occur during earnings season. My guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but I expect the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
SP500 either topped, will top, or flying high for yearsMy patience is being tested right now. I am running out of possible days of length and price targets. I have the market in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). The shorthand for this wave is 1532BC which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. Right now, Intermediate wave C (if we are still in it, we cannot be for much longer) is: 1) 1) 15 days long 2) 2) Gain of 479.43 3) 3) 300% the length of wave A 4) 4) 172.99% the move of wave A 5) 5) Accounts for 65.22% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) length 6) 6) Makes up 91.73% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) move This also makes the stats on Primary wave B look like: 7) 7) 23 days long 8) 8) Gain of 522.65 9) 9) 65.71% retracement of Primary wave A’s length (35 bars) 10) 10) 74.24% retracement of Primary wave A’s movement (dropped 703.97 points) 1-My models only forecast 15, 17 and 27 days in length for wave C. Most of the model agreement was below 10 days. 2-The move is not necessarily a factor by itself but the additional data will use this. The price forecasts below the current high is 4633.725. The next set of price points tops below 4700 are: 4637.45, 4652.15, 4653.96, 4657.99, 4664.74, 4665.448, 4673.78, 4674.76, 4675.68, 4676.19, 4681.05, 4689.68, 4697.24. These prices begin to have more gaps than the prices below this point. There is a 4 point grouping in the 4670s. 3-Intermediate C waves rarely exceed the 300% length of wave A which is where the index is based on today’s high. Intermediate C has moved 276.92% (wave ended C2C, we are 2BC), 281.25% (2BC), 466.67% (C2C), 517.39 (54C). 4-Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median move which is 127.13% of Intermediate wave A and an average of 123.72%. Intermediate C waves ending in 2BC have a median move of 152.47% and an average of 142.60%. The maximum is 242.75% of intermediate wave A’s movement. We are above the normal in the current case. 5-In the three wave structure of Primary wave B, Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median contribution of 31.25% for Primary wave B’s length and an average of 33.46%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median contribution of 49.45% and average of 44.22%. The highest contribution so far is 64.29% for 2BC and BC waves. 6-Likewise regarding the contribution to the overall wave, BC waves make up 68.74% as a median and 70.32% on average. There are four occasions above 90.49%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median make up of 90.49% and with a maximum at 95.12%. The current contribution is still acceptable, and quite common for 2BC waves. 7-The forecast days from my models at and above the current length are 26, 28, 32, 40, 51, 52, 59, 63, and 70 days in length. Strong agreement at 26 and 28 days. 8-The price forecasts for the end of Primary wave B have a few tight price target pockets which are: 4637.365, 4637.588, 4645.7, 4645.874, 4654.17, 4654.2, 4654.525, 4658.71, 4658.962, 4659.03, 4659.04, 4659.691, 4675.203, 4677.57, 4677.81, 4687.6, 4687.61, 4688.36, 4688.39. 9-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B match 25% to 400% the length of Primary wave A. Waves ending in 32B usually retrace around 55-70% with an outlier at 400%. We are in the smaller window now, but only for a day or two more at most. 10-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B move 41 to 88% of wave A’s movement. Waves ending in 32B move 54-77% which we are also nearing the high end of this window. To conclude, 1) the market has either topped today and we finally began Primary wave C downward with the final 15 minutes of trading today; 2) the market can rise for 2 more days at most before a reversal; or 3) We are not in Primary waves B or C and instead we ended all of the downward movement on February 24. If the latter is the case we are in the early stages of Cycle 3 which will see massive upward momentum for possibly 2-3 years. If option 1 remains valid, the chart below shows early signs of where movement will take us. Regardless of option 1 or 2, we will find a bottom and then begin Cycle 3 with the same aforementioned results. I am bullish long-term, but remain bearish in the short-term until we either break above 4818 or move below 3900.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 - Too good to short?Many indication point to a near term short. 1. The blue Arrows measures the pullback swings. Currently we are exactly at the highs, where price usually turned south. 2. Price got rejected again right at the KillZone 3. The A/R Resistance converge with the current high. 4. The indicators MACD & RSI signal short. So, what's a Trader to do here? Could price move even higher? Sure, no doubt. These markets are highly manipulated and trading totally crazy. But...we are Traders. We live on probabilities and good money management. For me, this is a superb bet. And how could we play this short? Because of the volatility, I stopped to go in with the whole position in one spot. What does that mean? It means, that I enter such trades in 3 stages, using reverse pyramiding. It can be with the underlying it self, or with substitutes, like Options, or even a combination, depending on my risk and greed level. So, why not just enter with a small position in the Micro-Futures, and pump the trade up on confirmation? Bet small. You can always re-enter any market, as long as you have money in your account! Stay well, trade well. #pigsgetslaughtered
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPX500 Weekly Game Plan $SPX500 Game Plan As much as I hate opening a position against the trend, these are two levels that I will be observing. In an ideal scenario I want to open the short upon confirmation. What does this mean? If price reaches one of the two levels - $4524 or $4586, I want a small retracement followed by a double top or lower low. I can then open a short position with a stop loss above the recent high. For the first order that would be somewhere around $4547, and for the second order that would be around $4617. -------- P.S. I've been inactive for the past month, so I do apologize to those following me. I am picking up the trades again and soon I will release my new core trading strategy, which relies on trend following and so far has been very promising on indices and commodities, which is what I mainly trade.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Quant_
The US Markets Have Not Fallen yet It's make me angry! All this situation around Ukraine. I'm from Russia and I'm not ashamed of it. Although there has come a period that it is not safe to be Russian now. And I'm worried about my kids because their mama is Russian. My husband from Germany and we live in Germany now and it is here that anti-Russian sentiments are especially strong! I always considered myself intelligent and thoughtful, it's not for nothing that I work as a financial analyst. But now I feel confused. If I would stay in my country I believe that I will have more opportunities to use this situation but I'm here. I'm sure that european governments understand what they doing. And also they represent what kind of reverse effect sanctions against Russia will give them. The United States has imposed a ban on the import of oil, a number of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal from the Russian Federation. The British Foreign Ministry called on Europe to extend sanctions on oil and gas from Russia. I will not say that many people will lose their jobs in Russia because of sanctions, and life in general will become more expensive. But it will be hard in Europe, too. Have you seen gasoline prices yet? In Germany, the cost of 1 liter has increased to 2.30 euros, in the Netherlands it is already 2.5 euros. Ads appeared in stores stating that there are restrictions on buying products in one hand. And it is only beginning… If you ask how did the sanctions affect me? I will answer that for the third week my work has been frozen because there are no traiding in russian stock markets. Some of the clients I work with are also from Russia, their accounts are also blocked, my bank card is disconnected from SWIFT and I can no longer use it until I return to Russia. What else? Oh, yes, the dollar and euro exchange rates against the ruble have increased by 38% and 30% over the past two weeks. The news that I read and analyze in Russia and Europe differ as black and white. I will not say who is right, the truth is in the middle. But why does everyone forget and do not want to admit that this whole situation in Ukraine happened thanks to the support of America? And that the Russians have been oppressed for 8 years? And that in general, the United States has always benefited from war on the territory of other countries and it is convenient to write off miscalculations and failures in the economy under this idea. I apologize for this post, but I can't stay silent anymore. I want other people to think about what is really happening and that Russia is not the first country to face an economic blockade, there were Iran and Venezuela. So the point, as always, is who benefits from it! The US markets have not fallen yet, look at the weekly chart of the S& P500 and remove all illusions, the nearest target is 3600-3800 points.
TVC:SPXShort
by scavoanastasiia
4
ES - S&P 500 - Profit P5 Is CommingWonderful how the Count 0-5 works out. At P4, price should reach the U-MLH. But instead it turned south, leaving a void up to the U-MLH, which in a Pitchfork-Trader term is a "Hagopian". The Rule Of Dr. Hagopian: Price will move more in the opposite direction than from where it came. In this case, price came from the CL (Centerline). And therefore price moves beyond the CL, which it did. Another beauty how the rules of a Pitchfork-Trader work. It's just great to know that they work with a super high probability. Not everytime, but more than enough to print $ §8-) OK, now what? Well, when price went below the CL again, it zoomed through. After a Zoom we expect a pullback. And it did. Another rule that worked out. After the pullback, price got rejected. And there it lies in front of us, the final target P5. This P5 of course can be much lower than in this screenshot projects it. However, after price reaches P5, prepare for P0 (zero). P0 again? Yep! After a P5 the full Swing/Pivot process has played out, and we start from new, just in the opposite direction. It's kinda printing money like the FED - just without lying and megalomania (also known as delusion). I hope this makes you curious to trade with Pitchforks. They're just a tool. But when used in the right context of your trading, they will be PLATIN for your profits... and nerves too §8-) Stay save out there. #ILoveThesePitchforksLikeSwissCheese
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPXU INVERSE ETF TRADING IDEA FOR FOMC MEETING 3/16/22This is my trading strategy for March 16th, 2022 on the next FOMC meeting. Using inverse 3 x etf is like doing options without options. They track opposite of whatever it is they track. In this case the SPXU does the exact opposite of the SPY S&P 500 ETF .. The spy tracks the S&P 500 markets. So I'm setting up a position on morning opening day of March 16th, Wednesday with $6,660 position anticipating a 5-8% return x 3x since the SPXU is a 3 x inverse.. Be very careful using 3x inverse or any inverse etf . YOU HAVE TO WATCH THEM LIKE A HAWK. They are not meant for long term or swing trade. They are for 1 day intra day only and can be very dangerous if you don't use them properly. They can also make you quick FAST money , BUT YOU CAN ALSO LOOSE ALL YOUR MONEY IN 1 DAY, if you DON'T KNOW what you are doing.. This is what I am doing. I am not giving trading advice. I simply share some of my trading ideas here... PS.Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,( Technical Analysis ) site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, post or newsletter.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
SP500The world’s most important stock market index, the S&P 500, closed Friday with its lowest weekly close since June 2021, and is very close to making the first “death cross” / “bear cross” (50 day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average) seen since the coronavirus shock of March 2020. This is typically a bearish sign and indicates lower prices are somewhat likely to follow, which is of course supported by the risk-off sentiment caused by the Ukraine crisis. It is probably not a good time to be buying stocks or trading this stock index long, and we can expect this moving average cross to happen very soon.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SmoothJB
S&P500 calls for short - Head & Shoulders TOPFollowed by the Rising Wedge Breakout, we can see very clearly that SP500 lost some momentum - all of this on the background of Fed's Rate Hikes Expectations. The Head and Shoulders pattern is clear and obvious - let's dig some more important details: 1.Volume Distribution: The volume distribution in a proper H&S Top should be concetrated on: The left Shoulder, The Head, or both of them - but never high on the right shoulder. Note that high volume on the left shoulder and on the head are not that significant, while majority of the volume concentrated on the second bottom of the H&S. The volume distribution here does not support the expected implications of an H&S breakout, and therefore, we should consider a short trade with a bit of suspicious. 2. The Breakout The first breakout of the Neckline occurred with a little peak in volume - this situation tells the trader to wait for new lower top to test the Resistance of the Neckline. And indeed, the patient trader received the expected new lower top, and on Friday the power of sellers was present. The inability to raise above the neckline and the fact that the price rejected from there - was a strong tactical signal for those wanna dive deep into profits. 3. Price Target By H&S Measurement rules, the objective of minimum potential is 3,865. When considering the overall Technical picture, the historical resistance from September 2020 (3,592) looks very solid to serve as strong support level. Conclusion: Technical wise, the picture is very clear and convenient to initiate a Short trade while maintaining a Stop Loss above the last minor top. Fundamental wise, the Fed is about to hike 25bps on coming Wednesday, and expected to hike 6 times along 2022. The collision of Russia-Ukraine sets a descent platform for inflation super nova on commodities whom which cause a liquidity problems and chaos on international trade. Reversal: There is might be a scenario in which the Fed will flip over and suggest that the "unexpected" war developments will require the take the leg of the pedal of Monetary tightening and go for more dovish policies in form of QE and maybe keep IR low, I think the possibility of such scenario is low, but still - In such case, all the short thesis is canceled and we should wait to see how the markets react to such case and trade accordingly. Good Luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ido_Havazelet