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THE Bear Market Bottom UpdateLast year on July 4th I published a timeline of the overall bear market cycle (Attached below in Related Ideas and titled "Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY"). This will provide an update on a chart that can be reflected on in the future by “playing the bars” for full veracity. The projection was made in early July when the market was trading at 3825 and the low at that point had been 3636.87. Market analysts were calling stating the bottom was in and the market will continue up beyond 4818. My analysis said otherwise. Some believe new market highs (above 4818) are near, while I know the hurt has not even happened yet. After the early summer of 2023, I still expect an overall decline to the end of 2024 or as late as the first quarter of 2025. The end of Cycle wave A was initially projected for October 18, 2022 with a low around 3175. The actual low was 3491 on October 13. Cycle wave B was projected to top around July 18, 2023 near 4600. With updated data, I have dropped the top for Cycle wave B to 4400 and sped up the end date to mid-June 2023. Cycle wave C’s bottom was projected for March 13, 2025 around 2400. While I still have a projected bottom at 2400, this is likely to change once Cycle wave B is complete and each Primary wave inside of Cycle C completes as well. The earlier end dates for Cycles A and B have moved the final bear market bottom toward the end of 2024 at this time. Continue to follow as we muddle through this bear market where there is always something to be gained.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
04/10/2023 $spy Supply and Demand Zones and BreakoutsPlease note that I am not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice. You should do your own research and consult a professional before making any trading decisions. Based on the 15-minute intraday chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as of April 7, 2021, here is my analysis: Supply Zone: $409.50 - $410.00 Demand Zone: $405.50 - $406.00 These zones are based on the price action that occurred before the strong moves in either direction. A supply zone is where sellers outnumber buyers and push the price down, while a demand zone is where buyers outnumber sellers and push the price up12. Support and Resistance: The current support level is around $408.00, which was tested several times on April 7 and held as a floor for the price. The current resistance level is around $409.50, which was also tested several times on April 7 and acted as a ceiling for the price. If the price breaks above the resistance level and the supply zone, the next potential supply zone could be around $411.00 - $411.50, which was the previous high on March 17. If the price breaks below the support level and the demand zone, the next potential demand zone could be around $403.00 - $403.50, which was the previous low on April 5. Technical Analysis: The SPY is trading above its 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating an overall bullish trend. However, the price has been consolidating in a narrow range between $408.00 and $409.50 for most of April 7, suggesting a lack of momentum and direction. The MACD indicator is hovering around zero, showing no clear signal of a trend change. The RSI indicator is also near 50, indicating a neutral market condition. Fundamental Analysis: The SPY tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index, which is a broad measure of the US stock market. The S&P 500 index has been hitting new record highs recently, driven by optimism about the economic recovery from the pandemic, vaccine rollouts, stimulus measures, and corporate earnings. However, some risks and challenges remain, such as rising inflation expectations, higher bond yields, geopolitical tensions, and potential tax hikes. News and Events: Some of the recent news and events that may have an impact on the SPY are: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March meeting on April 7, which showed that most policymakers agreed to keep monetary policy accommodative until the economy reaches its goals of maximum employment and inflation3. The US trade deficit widened to a record high of $71.1 billion in February, as imports surged while exports declined due to severe winter weather4. President Joe Biden announced a HKEX:2 trillion infrastructure plan on March 31, which aims to boost spending on roads, bridges, broadband, clean energy, and other projects over eight years5. The US added 916,000 jobs in March, beating expectations and signaling a strong rebound in the labor market. The unemployment rate fell to 6%, while the labor force participation rate rose to 61.5%6. Sentiment Analysis: The sentiment analysis is based on the social media activity and opinions of traders and investors about the SPY. According to Stocktwits.com, a popular platform for stock market discussions, the SPY has a bullish sentiment score of 63%, as of April 77. This means that more users are positive than negative about the SPY’s outlook. According to Tradingview.com, another popular platform for chart analysis and trading ideas, the SPY has a buy signal based on technical indicators, as of April 78. This means that most indicators are suggesting an upward movement for the SPY. Quantitative Analysis: The quantitative analysis is based on some statistical measures and ratios that can help evaluate the SPY’s performance and valuation. According to Yahoo Finance3, some of these measures are: Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 40.67 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): 4.28 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S): 3.02 Dividend Yield: 1.36% Beta: 1.00 Sharpe Ratio: 0.96 Sortino Ratio: 1.46 These measures and ratios can help compare the SPY with other ETFs or stocks in terms of profitability, growth, risk, and valuation. Generally, higher ratios indicate better performance and lower ratios indicate worse performance. However, these ratios should not be used in isolation and should be considered along with other factors such as market conditions, fundamentals, and technical.
AMEX:SPY
by DailyTradeSetups
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 04/05Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 2 In our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 04/04, we wrote: "With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be seen. Our models indicate initial pressure to the downside.". We re-iterate the same view today, and until we change it. Positional Trading Models: As per our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 04/04: "Our positional models are indicating early signs of bearishness, and are monitoring for a potential short signal". For today, our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4085 with a hard stop at 4116, and a trailing stop of 30 points. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 04/05: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4113,  4104, 4068, or 4052 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4110, 4097, 4063, or 4049 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4147, and explicit short exit on a break above 4094 or 4066. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:10am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #economy, #interestrates
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Didn't you say "head and shoulders"? Hi all. I wanted to not only find important signs on the 1M chart, but also experiment with 1D chart. I know so many people have a literal skin itch until they find the head and shoulders on the chart. Once head and shoulders are found, life becomes much easier and the chart makes sense. Ditz-bums! Here is a strikingly similar story with SPX, some peoples have found the head and shoulders last days... But long-awaited explosive up breakout did not happen. So, man… What happened? A downchannel happened probadly. Yes, it wasn't exactly a confirmed channel, but now we have a rejection of its upper boundary and we can see the thing better. I just have one question for you and for myself. Could it be a three-drive pattern? Because, if I am sure the candles have nowhere to go out of the channel, only to renew new bottom, then this is the most informative pattern for us i think. Of the usual indicators, I've left the Ichimoku and we see a remarkable long thin neck pointing to a nice easy break down spot. This further confirms the possibility. VIX has been squeeze and squeeze and similarly gives every reason to think in that direction. Bitcoin on a hard FOMO buying going in opposition to SPX move. Not to romanticise it, so far Bitcoin has never shown lasting independence from global market conditions. Then the possible duration of this leg is down to ~3350. 
 Well, now the cursing will begin in the comments. I am not encouraging anyone to do anything. You all have your own heads.
SP:SPX
by averkie_skila
10
Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality?Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be seen. Our models indicate initial pressure to the downside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating early signs of bearishness, and are monitoring for a potential short signal. For now, no trading plans for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 04/04: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4131, 4121, 4101, or 4085 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4128, 4117, 4098, 4094, or 4081 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4147, and explicit short exit on a break above 4063. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #economy, #interestrates
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Called the top, now the next 2 bottomsIt appears Minor wave 3 (yellow number 3) may have concluded. I called the top around 4112 and it hit 4110.75 near the close on Friday. We shall see how Monday opens but a new low should be in the making over the next two days. Next up is Minor wave 4. The historical data has been very consistent with a 47-49% reversals for wave 4s in wave 1s in wave Cs. I initially thought that is too much in a 1-2 day span (drop of nearly 100 points), it is certainly not impossible with the market’s volatility during this overall bearish market. The gains should continue for a final hurrah to end the week after Minor wave 4 is completed (most likely) on Tuesday. Minor wave 5 is also the end of Intermediate wave 1 (purple number 1). Historically these waves extend around 117% of their respective wave 3s. The top should not really be higher than 4150, but the current placement on the chart is temporary and will get updated once Minor wave 4 is complete and the data is applied to the program. Minor wave 1 was 7 days long while Minor wave 3 was only 5 days long. Elliott wave rules state wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave therefore Minor wave 5 mush be 5 days or less. If wave 5 begins on Tuesday, day 1 would not start until Wednesday. This means Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 must end by Wednesday April 12 (April 7 is a market holiday). Intermediate wave 2 will likely require a later event to setup at least a week of declines. With the CPI report coming out before the open on April 12th, this is the likely catalyst for Intermediate wave 2. It most likely means Intermediate wave 1 would end on or before April 11th around 4145. The placement of Intermediate wave 2 is even more of an estimate with an initial forecasted length around 6-7 days. This would coincide with the beginning of earnings season. The banks kick it off next week, but reports start coming in around April 20th. Complete WAG is a low below 3990 by April 19. We will continue to watch how this all unfolds as we climb to the next major peak around 4400 early this summer.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
$QQQ $SPY Full Bull control but its a little extended.- QQQ and SPY has a very strong bull move last 4 days with zero signs of bears but they move is quite extended and im looking for a daily consolidation to shape up - If the consolidation is healthy the bull move will likely continue so i will be watching how the consolidation shapes up. - SPY is approaching some key resistance around 410 area also potentially shaping up a daily H&S we'll have to see how it trades around 410 Next week - i will be on team bull until bears show me signs of weakness during daily consolidation.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading
2
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 03/31PCE, Window Dressing, and Witching This morning's PCE data release was a yawn. While the window dressing is going to exert a push to the upside, the quarterly index options' positioning looks to be exerting a pull to the downside. Which side wins - especially in the last hour - could determine how we close today. After that, Monday will be a whole new story. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 03/31: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4073, 4064, 4036, or 4033 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4068, 4060, 4053, 4044, or 4029 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4060, and explicit short exit on a break above 4064 or 4048. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
$SPYCore PCE which is the Fed's favored methods in evaluating inflation just hit the wires and came in softer than expected, but still above the Fed's ideal. T&S is reflecting that pre-market traders are enjoying the news, albeit on low volume. It is the end of the quarter heading into the weekend so todays price action will be important, lets take a look at some levels The majority of yesterdays darkpool action occurred below the bid, the areas with the most significant orders occurred at 401.27 & 403.64, we will look at these as local supports. bulls need a break above 409, bears need a break below 400. these are the potential scenarios I will look for today : long: - break above PM high, retest & hold - dip to yday's darkpool prints & hold short: - pop to PM high & fail - break below yday darkpool prints, retest & fail resistances: 405.22, 407.20, 409 supports: 403.64, 401.27, 400, 398, 396.62,393.69
AMEX:SPY
by runNgun
No man's land?Over the past few months, many people continued to argue that the bull market has begun and much more upside awaits us. However, since SPX’s lows in mid-October 2022, the market remained relatively choppy for the entire period. In fact, the SPX’s current level is the same as that between mid-November 2022 to mid-December 2022, putting the valuation where it was about four months ago. Throughout the relevant period, it seems the market always found resistance between $4 000 and $4 200, which for the most part, coincided with the release of some bearish data, causing a temporary drop that got quickly absorbed by the market. We already outlined in previous articles how this could be a result of a beaten-up market looking for any excuse to rally after a terrible performance in 2022. Right now, SPX is again in this magical area that has acted as a strong resistance until now. Therefore, we will pay attention to SPX’s behavior within this zone, with a focus on today’s release of economic data in the U.S. that includes initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, GDP sales, GDP Price Index, GDP growth rate, PCE prices, Core PCE prices, real consumer spending, and corporate profits. We will also pay close attention to technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. If MACD breaks above the mid-point, it will be bullish for the short term. Likewise, if RSI and Stochastic rise further, it will also be bullish. In particular, with the RSI, we will also observe its ability to peak (if the market heads higher). In bear markets, it is more common for it to peak below 70 points (or trend sideways below this level before breaking down). In general, we would say there is a lot of uncertainty among investors, which will likely translate to more choppiness for the market in the short and medium term (until more economic data reflects severe economic problems on various fronts and something snaps). With that said, our outlook beyond the short-term and medium-term fluctuations does not change; we still expect the recession to progress further and eventually start manifesting in a weak stock market, dragging it to new lows. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and ES1! with RSI below them. It can be easily spotted how RSI managed to break above 70 points only once during 2022. The SPX is approximately up 15% from its October 2022 low while being down about the same margin from its peak in January 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish (Weak trend) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
3
My today's view on SP500 - FutureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Micro and Macro structure are both aligned. There’re few zone I’ll wait for the price to test: - 4025 for a short - 4080/90 for a short, as well - 3960 for a long (but I need a strong confirmation) Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 03/30Window Dressing Buoying The Markets? As we wrote in our trading plans on Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to monitor the price action today for a potential spike up into tomorrow. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 03/30: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4057, 4042, 4033, or 4016  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4053, 4029, 4013, or 4007 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4038, and explicit short exit on a break above 4010. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 - Will we get lower lows?Hello traders! In previous posts about the sp500 (see links in description) we argued that some downside was coming and posted our short entry at 3994. As you can see from the main chart, we connsidered the previous upside from October's low as a corrective move with choppy price action and low volumes. We are considering different possibilities: either that move was a primary wave (B) to the upside, and main downtrend is resuming for lower lows, or it was only the first leg of this primary (B), and we are retracing down with an intermediate wave B about to conclude. We are keeping our short with stop loss on entry. We will refer to patterns and sentiment to assess probabilities of different scenarios. The light orange zone of support that you can see in the chart, if broken, will activate a bearish head and shoulder that will lead to lower lows. However, since it is not broken, this pattern has not statistical validity. Here you can see a bearish wolfe wave whose target will be consistent with both scenarios. No hints for neither case from a pattern perspective until 3766 holds. From a sentiment andfundamental perspective, we have seen soft lending narrative and the idea that slowing inflation may have led to a Fed pivot boosting bullish sentiment in tha last months. However, FED kept raising rates and banks are suffering it. The fact that all analysts and the general sentiment is not worry about it is a point in favour of a lower low;). But to consider it we want to see impulsive acceleration to the downside. Until then our targets will be 3840 and 3780. Bests GMR
U
by GMR-Capital
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 03/29Choppiness to Persist Into Friday? As we wrote in our trading plans for yesterday, Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to be in an indeterminate state. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 03/29: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4010, 4000, 3987, or 3972  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4004, 3994, 3982, or 3967 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits or short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 wants to go up!In my last analyses about the SPX , I spoke about a bottom of the index. The price was in the process of breaking the resistance when I created that post. De deciding factor was whether we could create new support out of old resistance, which is happening right now. First, the lower part of the zone was touched and made the price bounce. Now, we're witnissing the upper part of the zone being turned into support. Once this process has finished, the new uptrend can officially begin.
SP:SPXLong
by FetchTeam
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 03/28Rising Yields Back In Focus With the banking chaos now a bit settled, the markets seem to be focusing back on Interest rates (and, hence inflation). The rising yields today seem to be holding back the markets. However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday. For today, the models continue to be in an indeterminate state. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 03/28: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3986, 3976, 3965, or 3957  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3983, 3962, or 3955 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3972. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom