Sp500index
SPX to new highs SPX loves cups and handles.
All the highlighted Cup & Handles on daily have played out beautifully so far, they all have been to the upside so far, but now we are making one to the downside with targets towards 4150. Then how do we reach new highs?
If we zoom out to monthly TF things become clearer. As long as we stay above 0.5 or close above it on monthly, we have a chance to make new highs in a year or so.
I have highlighted several upside targets based on where we bounce from on monthly.
SPX did everything as per the plan, Where to now?I posted this chart just last week as part of my Major short setup going back weeks. Link to previous post in the description, please go through that setup to get the context.
This is going to be a short post, since everything is going as per the plan we just have to wait and watch, Price back to where I expect either a break below or bounce to continue higher.
So as per the plan If it's going to bounce now, I have highlighted two 30 mins demand zones. where I expect a bounce. Those two zones are also confluent with 0.786 and 0.886 fibs of the retracements.
Apart from this chart it pretty is self-explanatory.
Boost this post and leave me comment for any questions on this I'd be happy to explain.
Here is the latest wave 3 path downwardIt is time again to map Intermediate wave 3 IF Intermediate wave 2 finally finished (again). Specific models point to a possible extension (pink lines) between 135.64% and 165.83% of Intermediate wave 1. Model durations could be 138, 147, 155, or 172 hours. While still specific, but slightly different wave relationship data is considered (light blue lines) next, this can be considered the more accurate dataset. Extension quartiles are 141.46%, 189.69%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 112 or 150 hours. Secondaries scatter at 70, 96, 147, 155, and 174 hours. The broader dataset points to quartile extensions of 141.46%, 180.03%, and 314.88%. Strongest model agreement on duration is 150 hours with secondary at 112 and 224. These secondaries are likely inaccurate as they are 1:1 wave 1 and 1:2 wave 1 to wave 3. Smaller waves tend to have these relationships, however, longer waves (112 hours for wave 1) do not. Third agreement is 168 hours. Fourth is scattered 134-138, and 172-174. This means the bottom could occur late in September around 4120.
The 5 wave structure down is a complete guess at not based on any data. The actual 5 wave structure will likely be crazier.
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400.
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4477, 4463, 4452, 4433, 4421, or 4407 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4460, 4448, 4430, 4417, or 4405 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4474. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
Corrections do not last long. This one might ass well be overJust by simply measuring the previous corrections in the stock market, it is clear that corrections in general do not take long. The average size corrections seems to be between 3 and 5 weeks.
The botom of the current correction is found in week 4. As the price is also holding a critical support level, the probability of this being the bottom is incredibly high.
With Bitcoin finding a bottomg as well (these two markets are correlated), I believe that this is the bottom of the current correction.
Still early in Bear Market, a reviewNOTE: All times are eastern. New assumption is Intermediate wave 3 has not begun yet.
Most of the forecasts have been accurate, at least through Minor wave 3. My wave 3 indicators have also flashed at appropriate wave 3 endpoints. Today clearly confirms the index is not where I had it so going backwards and re-testing is the next step. I am first returning to Minute wave 4 in Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 1.
I had this top at 1230 on August 4. The three questions to answer are where was Minor 3 expected to end, where was Minute 5 expected to end and where do they overlap? The most specific data fails to specify a duration but suggests 12, 32, 52, and 56 hours. The minimum historical movement was 112.55% of wave 1, max is 408.88%, with a median at 247.84%. Slightly broader historical data points to a minimum of 121.16%, max at 285.18%, with median at 214.395%. The durations fail to strongly agree with lengths of 19, 32, and 48 hours. The broadest dataset referenced points to quartile extensions (1st, median, 3rd quartile instead of minimum, median, maximum) of 142.54%, 181.715%, and 242.61%. Model durations agree the most at a duration less than 10 hours with secondary and tertiary agreements at 32 and 48 hours respectively. My first questionable placement for the endpoint of Minor wave 3 based on the actual movement is between 1030 on August 8 or 1130 on August 9. The August 8th position was 43 hours into Minor wave 3 and the August 9 position would have been 51 hours.
Now for application of Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave 3 endpoints. The most specific data has a tight window with a minimum extension of 131.06% and maximum of 166.07%. The durations lack strong model agreement but note 9, 12, 16, 21, or 32 hours. The next set of slightly broader historical data has quartile extensions at 112.85%, 133.75%, and 166.07%. Models agree the most at 4 hour duration, second most at 5 hours, third at 9 hours, then 16, 19, and 12 hours. The broadest dataset used has quartile extensions at 117.88%, 134.35%, and 165.21%. Model agreement for durations beyond 8 hours agree the most at 16 hours. Additional model agreement in descending order is 11, 18, 19, 13, and 24 hours. Minute wave 5 likely lasted 12 or 20 hours. The 20 hour duration outlines 5 waves inside of wave 5, however wave 3 would be the shortest which is a potential red flag. I have placed the end of Minor wave 3 at 1030 on August 8. The levels and placement are viewable here:
After computation of this point, Minor wave 4 would have then ended at the high during the first hour of trading on August 10.
Next step is forecast where Minor wave 5 should end. Did it end before the open at the low on August 18, earlier, or not yet? An endpoint of August 18 would make Minor wave 5 42 hours long. The most specific set of forecasting data points to Minor wave 5 extending a minimum of 101% of Minor wave 3, a maximum of 165.28%, and a median of 108.58%. Duration agreements are difficult again, most is at 18 hours long, secondaries are spread at 33, 39, 52, and 64 hours. The next, slightly broader dataset has the minimum movement at 128.39%, maximum at 220.5%, and median at 147.93%. Forecasted durations are at 38, 45, 46, 48, 52 hours long. The final dataset from broader historical data has quartile extensions at 114.04%, 131.845, and 159.44%. Forecasted durations point to 43 hours long, with secondary at 52 hours. Next is 39 hours and then 32 hours.. A wave 3 indicator was triggered up to the bottom on August 18th which can be confusing. This indicator does fire at wave 3 endpoints, however, it also signals the end of waves 2, 4, and B. Sometimes it does indicate the end of wave 1 when quick movement occurs. August 18 triggers a wave 3 indicator on the daily and hourly charts which doesn’t provide great clarity, but does indicate a sudden drop on a daily level too. All highlighted levels in this analysis point to much shallower levels than the achieved low on August 18, however, a majority of the duration models suggest the actual length of 42 hours could be accurate. Here is application of these levels and placement of Intermediate 1 at the low on August 18:
If August 18 was the de facto end of Intermediate wave 1, what would Intermediate wave 2 look like? The most specific historical data points to movement retracement quartiles of 28.26%, 41.09%, and 68.49%. Length forecasts agree the most at 27 hours while the secondaries are a broad tie at 26, 29, 31, and 42, hours. The next dataset has quartile levels of 32.13%, 51.87%, and 55.28%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 112 hours (which was the length of Intermediate 1, an unlikely). Secondaries are scattered at 26, 32, and 62 hours. The final broader dataset has quartile retracements 39.70%, 55.28%, and 71.83%. Model duration agrees the most at 112, with secondary at 37, 56, or 75 hours. Third agreement is heavy in the 22-37 hour range. Lastly, I have redrawn trendlines for the top and bottom of the overall downward trend. At the time of writing, the index has a current top from the 1330-1430 trading hour on August 23 which also coincides with the top trendline. Furthermore, the duration is 25 hours and the top matches the 39.70% quartile retracement mentioned above. A few more hours are required to see if all this analysis is correct and IF Intermediate wave 2 has just ended.
My models are only as good as the information entered into the system. The cause for the misjudgment last night is likely related to in the moment wave assignment. Hindsight and broader review of data makes the future reads stronger. I have zero doubt the market is in the early innings of a second bear market correction. If Intermediate wave 1 indeed lasted 112 hours, the original endpoints from this forecast:
point to the market bottom being later in 2024 and deeper than 2700 instead of September 2024 around 2800.
Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400.
While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades
Remaining on course if Wednesday is redHere is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart is the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5).
Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 4330 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 4356. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 4372.61, 4654.45, and 3rd quartile at 4326.75. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 4370.16, median at 4352.58, and the third quartile was near 4328.
THIS WEEK
If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 4240 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 4330. A drop to 4330 tomorrow would only be a 1.3% loss. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go further. For now I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 4395 but still likely to occur midday Friday.
THEORY BUSTERS
A rise above 4400 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 4418.59 would place use back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index
Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5).
Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60.
THIS WEEK
If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday.
THEORY BUSTERS
A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
US500US500 is trading in descending channel and recently form the bearish flag within the channel and now the price is at the verge of breakout of bearish flag.
if the breakout from bearish flag happens then the next target could be support of bearish channel which is around 4340 region.
$ES_F Long, possible dead cat bounce?The market has transitioned back into a more mean-rev phase so I dont expect bull rallies to survive for long. Also shorts are likely to be more profitable since trend following indi's have printed bearish. But use this long to capitalize on a dead cat bounce that could happen. Im not sure that it'll go up to close the gap at 4590.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 4400, sl 4370, tp 4460, 4470 (close).
moderate conviction. im more confident of getting initial negative returns upon entry given the lack of bull divs and exhaustion from indis. but i do have a higher conviction of hitting the tp targets. ~4420 is another bull entry but expect wicks to 4400.
Trade 2
Short 4465, sl 4500, tp 4370, 4300, 4200
low conviction, has a high likelihood of getting stopped out. wouldn't recommend it unless there's a severe bear reaction with some volume, which you'd should market in. but place a tight sl.
Trade 3
short 4545, sl 4620, tp 4470, 4370.
moderate/high conviction, assuming the short term bear trend is intact. this trade expects negative returns once entered but covers the case of the gap being covered.
Bulls Need a Daily Close Above 4400S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/22
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400.
While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's attempt to push the index above 4400 will sustain till the end of the session.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4415, 4408, 4400, 4392, or 4381 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4413, 4406, 4397, 4388, or 4369 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4378, and explicit short exits on a break above 4371. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
Sideways Between Key LevelsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/21
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400.
While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4387, 4373, 4351, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4383, 4361, 4348, or 4339 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4365. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
My Case For NO 1929 Style (Economic Collapse) + Super Bubble
I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all.
We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this.
Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then ending with a gigantic 3rd melt up.
But the truth? we need to take the (CURRCIR) (Currency in Circulation)
as a proxy for the US M2 / M3 for the early 1900s
What we see is there was no debasement "Quantitative Easing" almost no new currency growth meaning it was all leverage based on air. Only after 1930s did we see currency growth.
Fast forward to 1999-2023
We see even before Quantitative Easing (Currency in Circulation) started an uptrend in 2004 going parabolic after 2008. Meaning the "Super Bubble" people are betting shorting right now is completely based on false information. Yes they are all wrong so is most retail.
2023
Adjust the SPY/USM2 supply we see a resistance trend going back to 2002 being hit 5 times, this means the debasement is acceleration coming back stronger every time.
There's a chance something insane will happen where markets will go parabolic almost triple or quadruple the 1929 "Super Bubble"
This will begin when the FRED has to cut or hold rates.
Reserve Banks forced to cut rates due to debt interest (government).
(Global M2 by math will go parabolic) this will flow back into companies / growth stocks.
Bond Yields there's a chance they will not lower and most of the money gets captured by hard asset / growth markets, this includes Bitcoin / Gold.
My thought process here is for the final "Super Bubble" to form from all this debt interest and monetary easing we have to see a blow off top in the SPY/USM2 chart, and you can guess it if the SPY makes all time highs soon while the FRED is planning to cut rates you're going to have all the (Money Market Funds) capital flow back into the stock market, there's currently trillions in short term US bonds meaning anyone purchasing TLT expecting a play for Bond Yields to fall are going to get this very wrong too (unless YCC happens for US Bonds)
So has the bubble busted? based on the math it has just begun we could be in the 1927 stage.
SPX Further Downside Incoming (1D)SPX Daily
Price Chart
After the recent bounce of the level of resistance (Red Box) the SPX snapped it's first small level of resistance (Teal Dotted) and has continued lower. Price has also closed below the 50-day EMA while the 12-day and 26-day have recently crossed and the 50-day flattens out. The next level of support (First Green Box) should come into play within the next several days, unless we get a big sell-off Friday and hit it today, but this is the first area we expect to see a bounce. Also notable is the minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) that has been broken which should lead price action to eventually come in contact with it's major trend line (Yellow Solid) again.
Relative Strength
Not a lot to show here, however there have been two significant moves. First is the rejection of the 50 level (Aqua Circle) and the second is the break below (Aqua Highlighter) the major trend line (Yellow Solid). Both of these moves fortify the recent price action and indicate further weakness in trend.
On Balance Volume
OBV broke out of it's downward trend back in May (Yellow Solid) and started trading in an upward channel after. There hasn't been a reversal formation, but there is a small breakout forming (Aqua Highlighter) that coincides with recent price action and RSI movement. More evidence of an upcoming bounce is seen as a level of resistance is also being approached (Red Solid)
TLDR;
Dang man, talkin' bout no time man, dang ol' markets bleedin' man, come on up or dang ol' down man. Uh.. yea.. We think we understood that. Anyway.. Price action is on it's way down to a small level of resistance where we could see a bounce. RSI has bounced down off the 50 level and has broken down from it's main trend line; signaling a move lower. OBV has just begun to move down out of it's upward channel and also faces a level of resistance that could lead to bounce.
What Seems Legit?
A bit more of lower movement to hit the levels of resistance outlined above, then further downside
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line
Yellow Dashed = Minor Trend Line
Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance
Red Box = Resistance
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
Teal Dotted = Small Level of Resistance
Aqua Highlighter = RSI / OBV Breakouts
Down Big After Monday?We are likely still in Minor wave 4 moving upward. It was originally forecasted to last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour will be the first hour of trading on Monday. The 5 minute chart has a potential wave structure so far if we are inside of Minuette wave 3 inside Minute wave C upward:
The market could open upward or move up in the first hour of trading. The median historical models are pointing to a high around 4420, I am not sure it will go that far based on the amount of completed movement already but this is definitely a wait and see situation. I am more ready for the next decline which could begin as soon as tomorrow. For now I am projecting Minor wave 4 to end before 1330 eastern time tomorrow at a high of 4405. I am doing this to forecast the final Minor wave 5 bottom. This would mean Minor wave 4 lasted 10 hours, gain 69.69 points for a movement retracement of 44.96%.
The most specific models (pink lines) for Minor wave 5s in Intermediate wave 3s in Primary wave 1s is pointing at a minimum movement extension of 158.43% which is 4244.73 and aligns with one of the forecasted Intermediate wave 3 bottoms of 4248.04. The median and third quartile extension point to a low around 4204-4210. These models also agree on a length of 25 hours which puts the low at this Friday. This is pointing to at least a 160 point drop in 4.5 days which would likely require constant bad news this week. Second most agreement on length is only 11 hours which would be even more steep. The next set of models (light blue) on slightly broader data has a wider movement range between 110.57%-191.67% with the median at 167.775% or a bottom at 4230.25. There is not a strong agreement on duration as it is spread between 6-27 hours. The next broader dataset (yellow lines) have a much higher bottom than the specific models as the range 4237.71-4307.59. Model agreement on duration is quite spread out as well with 22-27 hours carrying interest while larger agreement can be found in the 7-15 hour range.
Monday is quiet on the scheduled economic data front which could allow the upward drift. Tuesday has home sale figures for July along with Fed speakers. Any mention of further rate hikes is likely unwelcomed news, especially for tech and high debt companies. Wednesday is mortgage numbers, building permits, manufacturing PMI and new home sales along with energy stockpiles. Thursday is jobless claims and durable goods orders for July and Jackson Hole kicks off on Friday with consumer sentiment numbers coming in within the first hour of trading.
Highlights of the analysis are a minimum 160 point drop at some point this week. I originally thought slightly unmanageable but we are finishing an Intermediate wave 3 which will have more steep movement and the economic data along with the Federal Reserve speeches are the perfect fuel for such an event.
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follow up to my short to show the few paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea.
The only difference is that this happened a bit slower than I anticipated, which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now.
As you can see, we are bouncing from the Support zone as I had highlighted in my previous post.
Which brings us to the question of where we go from here.
On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here, we have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breaching the low, we are likely to head up.
But if we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer.
Let's Look at the following chart:
On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart.
If we get a pull back and break higher than Fridays high, we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do, we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things, either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not, we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower.
Now let's look at why the price bounced from 4336. The following chart has the answer. If you know VPA, then you know price moves in ranges, just like candle stick patterns are fractals, Ranges can act like fractals as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1, R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it coincides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another confluence for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart.
Finally, if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 region is a Gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement.
Some Projections:
If we do get a move like the one, I have explained, i.e. move to 4500 area and reject, we will have few patterns emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle. I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation by large institutions to trap retail traders, it possible that there is a fake out into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom, so only trade confirmations based on market structure change.
Happy Trading App!!!
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follwup to my short to show few possible paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a possible break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea.
The only difference is that , this happened bit slowly than I anticipated , which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now.
As you can see we are bouncing from the Suupport zone as I had highlighed in my previous post.
Which brings us to the question where to from here.
On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here , We have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breachnig the low we are likely to head up.
But If we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer.
Lets Look at the follwing chart:
On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart.
If we get a pull back and break higher than fridays high we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things , either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower.
Now lets look at why price bounced from 4336. Following chart has the answer. If you know VPA , then you know price moves in ranges , just like candle stick patterns are fractles , Ranges can act like fractles as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1 , R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it concides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another conflunece for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart.
Finaly if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 rehion is a gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement.
Speculation:
If we do get a move like the one I have explained , i.e move to 4500 area and reject , we will have few pattern emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle . I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation to trap retails , it totally possible that there is a fakeout into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom so be careful , only trade confirmations based on market structure change.
Happy Trading All !!!
Possible SPX - Inverse H&S Long IdeaSP:SPX
Bullish outlook on SPX ( S & P 500)
- Golden Cross on Daily Timeframe (50 Days MA crossing 200 Days MA),
- Possilbe hike Pause by the Fed at March/April meeting,
- General negative sentiment and large short positions that would need covering,
- General company earnings that mostly beat earlier estimates,
- Generally safer environment to invest in US registered equities,
- Mass Layoffs that will eventually decrease costs and consequently increase earnings per share,
Things to watch :
- Appleearning release end of today (as holder of largest weight)
- Fed minutes of January 2023 Meeting,
- Support Line at around 3,900 level,
- DXY level 105 and already happened Death Cross (refer to my earlier DXY chart),
As always DYOR and stay safe.
SP 500 WITH 4623 BULLISH PIPSSP 500 had been in a continued uptrend for a while now and its not strange to witness the recent pull back / retest that brought the stock price to 4367 at 6.18% fibonacci level and the posed bounce off from the region would likely take the stock price to 4800, that is potentially 4623 bullish pips.
According to dancolnation capital trading strategy, we shall be trailing with the trend after a retest of same 4367 region with a 4H bullish engulfing candle for our SWING RIDE
Trading Plans for FRI. 08/18 - Key Support Levels BrokenS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/18
To start the week, our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". On Wednesday, this level was breached.
In our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level yesterday, and is taking down multiple support levels this morning.
Our models' bias has turned outright bearish today, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4410.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4379, 4368, 4356, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4390, 4377, 4365, 4353, or 4339 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4427 or 4405, and explicit short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:36am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
Can we end up tomorrow?We are either still in Minor wave 3 down or may have begun Minor wave 4 up. Based on the current data, Minor wave 4 should last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour is near the close on Friday and the other targets would be Monday. After Minor wave 4 up is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market down some more to newer lows next week.
Minor wave 3 so far has extended 192% beyond Minor wave 1 which is very close to the original targets. In fact I was only off by an hour in placing the end time for Minor wave 3 (if it is actually finished of course).
The retracement levels in the middle relate to Minor wave 4 potential endpoints. The pink levels are the most specific datasets, light blue are slightly less specific and then yellow goes more broad. Best forecast right now is a top between 4410-4420 by midday Monday
