Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
SOXL
MU: SOXL: Micron is Moving HigherMU: Micron has started its rally toward Q3 - next earnings season. The chart has reached $45.06, its 23.6% Fib retracement level, which may serve as near-term resistance, or consolidation zone before its next leg up. Momentum has turned positive as MACD has crossed to the upside on all time frames. There are two unfilled gaps below, at $43.76 and $42.68 levels. Next possible targets for the move higher are $48.13 (50%), $51.46 (78.6%), and $54 (100%). Pull backs on the way up are possible and are likely to represent a buying opportunity.
Top Equities and Funds (YTD % Change)These are the top yielding securities in the equities market: NASDAQ:AAPL SOXL TSLA AMEX:FNGU NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:AMZN and AMEX:LABU . All of the exchange-traded funds are 3x leveraged (make sure that you understand how these work) and have the potential to be volatile. Also, Tesla and Amazon may be in a bubble.
Semiconductors Be AwareAnother ascending wedge has appeared. We are currently awaiting a small pull back before a final push up but this does not look like its getting to $200 like previously thought. Bearish headwinds are appearing and larger more long-term ascending wedges are appearing in the market.
Semiconductors at overhead resistanceThis was one of my more prodigious predictions - a declining wedge inside a consolidating triangle. It has jumped today to the upper limit of the consolidating pattern, but where to now? The limits and lines have stayed consistent so crosing and closing above or below them should tell you which way the trade is headed.
SOXL - BTFD Thank You CoronavirusMy custom "Fast MACD" (Yellow Line) line crossed above its two signal lines. I think the regular MACD (Aqua Line)crosses above its signal line soon as well. At the time of that cross, we should be seeing some recovery from this coronavirus in the markets. Semiconductor companies still have incredibly strong growth.
Semiconductors & Hashing-Rate Correlation StudyThere are long periods of positive correlation between average bitcoin hashingrate in gigahashes/second and performance of major semiconductor ETFs like SOXX and SMH
As hashing and computing power in general shows massive increases in demand there are only a few companies that have the materials and knowledge to produce 'rocks that think' aka processors and other computing components made of earth metals and silicone.
When I see big printing bars in hashing power but 'divergence' in correlation I may consider adding to semiconductor positions via options on semiconductor ETFs and computing component companies like INTC, AMD, NVDA, and the like as it means someone went out and made a huge investment in processing power in order to make a 'blip' on the hashing map but the ETFs are reflecting a downside move. This divergence between correlation of hashing rate and semiconductors displays a market inefficiency in the expectation for demand of semiconductors and actual demand for semiconductors. This divergence is an opportunity for us to capture in my estimation.
I hope this makes sense and helps your own analysis
Good luck have fun
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snoop
Semiconductors - almost to the 5th wave down. LOAD UP on SOXSSemis swinging nicely in this range bound pitchfork. Volatility increase near the outer bounds, and we are almost there. Clear 5 wave count to conclude at the long term bullish trend line. This is my short term trade to the downside using SOXS 3x bear, and will reevaluate my next move when this target is hit. There's still a long term bull target on most indexes (including Semis) that has not been hit. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind, but for now staying bearish on this move. Ignore the time based fib if you want. I rarely use it, but it helps fit my narrative for now.