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ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week ES' short was awesome. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Short on test and reject of 3792 // lower trend line 2) Long if 3540-3600 // 3711 // dotted and solid trend line is supported Weekly: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand Daily: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand. H3: Possible bottom reversal = Demand > Supply Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3903 3792 3717 3642 3540-3600 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
SPY revisited the last low, how now?Just to recap that after flipping into a (bear) rally, a back flip pushed the SPY further down from 13 September. The past week was absolutely stunning... from the SPY daily chart, the week started with a nice rebound, post-gap-down from the previous Friday. Then once the FOMC made their announcement, the SPY just gave way to lower lows (as earlier expected from the TD analysis). In fact, on Friday, althought he SPY did not clock a lower low, it reached within range of the last low in June. And this was met with a late session rebound. Friday's session was significant in the sense that there was yet another substantial gap down, it revisited near the June lows and came back with a late session rebound instead of selling off into the weekend. This candlestick formed tells of a technical rebound early next week. However, the technical indicators are bearish, suggesting that the support of the June lows will be taken out later after the rebound. On the upper side, there are two critical resistance levels. The first is after closing Friday's gap down (at 375) and needs to close above 378. If that happens, we might have another (bear) rally to the next resistance at 392. On the weekly SPY chart, the candlestick analysis is suggesting that the bearish momentum is not yet abating. MACD crossed under its signal line, in the bear territory. A very big hint of the weeks' downside to come... The bigger picture downside target of 325 around the end of October is still valid and feasible. Reviewing the candlestick patterns since August show very reliable patterns per candle and as a collective set of candestick patterns... mostly to the downside for now. Noted too that the weekly candle broke down below the Hull EHMA (bearish). Overall, still down, after an anticipated technical rebound (early) next week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
2
SPY to last low and beyondThe Bear case scenario described previous just got another validation. Post rate hike reaction tells of a higher probability to revisiting the last low. A strongly bearish candlestick accentuates the bear case. The thing here is that reaching the downside target of 325 is clearly within reach. Whichever way it takes: either closing the week on a technical bounce, or breaking down further, this trendy rout is not ready to end till November. Perhaps more pressing might be the yet unseen collateral damage in this "no soft landing" scenario. A black swan type of event could just tip the drop off a cliff. Plain and simple. Heads up.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
2
SPY Daily analysis using TD Setup and MACDAs a follow up to the SPY Hourly analysis by TD Sequential Setup and MACD... Here is the similar analysis on the SPY daily chart. Clearly, does not look good. Here is why... The Buy Setup in late August (red box) did not breach the TDST of 401. This actually means that the primary trend is bullish. Hence, a TD Flip on 7 September and the start of a TD Sequential Sell Setup appeared at that time to be a legit bullish trend. However, on 13 September, after an inflation report release, the markets got spooked and a significant Gap Down and Run occurred. This was a TD Flip that truncated the opposing setup too. It also failed the Hull EHMA lines, as well as formed the third Lower High. Now, it appears that a new TD Sequential Buy Setup is underway and the last low at 388 can be expected to be broken down for a revisit of 360-365. So, watch the critical 388. MACD is heading further down as indicated, and is aligned to the downside scenario. Reminder that Friday is Quad Witching and volatilty prevails during QW. Stay safe and well, watch out for increased volatility and be nimble!
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
5
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week ES's long trap played out on Monday, later than the other 2 US indices, before the shorts took over on Tue 13 Sep. Friday's last 2 H3 up bars happened on very high volume. Keep stops tight if long as there is likely selling into the up move. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Temporary long opportunity if 3853-3902 is supported 2) Short if test and rejection of rotation area (circled on chart) / rejection of 4051 / 3981 Weekly: High vol down bar close off high = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = demand > supply H3: Ultra high vol up demand bar followed by 2 very high vol up bars = caution as there may be selling into the up bars Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4175 4051 3981 3903-3853 3742 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIITo continue, last we saw was: After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish . Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7. On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming. Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that... Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in. You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement. So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure). This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management. Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance. Stay safe and well. PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy! PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
Down came rain and washed the SPY-der out... Reference to the the just posted NASDAQ analysis; and in this analysis, the TD Sequential is switched on for a slightly new perspective, one that had been posted over the week on the hourly SPY chart. Now, you get to see it in the longer term chart and observe how fractal it can be. The weekly SPY chart had a "Stick Sandwich" that looks more like a Bearish Engulfing IMHO. The difference here is that the SPY covers more than technology stocks (despite technology stocks taking up a lot of the S&P500 market cap). Technical indicators are similarly divergent, MACD bearish, RPM somewhat bullish. The TD Sequential (Buy) Setup is forming midway, just below the first TDST support (red dotted line), and is suggesting a bearish primary trend is forming. What this TD Sequential pattern tells is that IF the current TD Seq Setup is to complete, then we should see the next 4-6 weeks of downside; probably fulfilling the the symmetrical projection to 325 (where the next TDST support line is). These are the main factors that suggest more downside should be expected. Zooming further out into the SPY monthly chart (right panel), with the TD Sequential switched on, and there is good and bad news here... The current TD Seq Setup completes in October, but in order to be Perfected, a low that is lower than 412 needs to be registered over the next 4 months; quite possibly meeting the monthly 55EMA. which is about 355 currently. The geed news here is that on the monthly chart, the primary trend is still bullish, given the last TD Seq Setup (green box) in 2020 to March 2021. The TDST needed to turn the primary trend bearish would be a monthly close below 296. So, at least for the rest of this year, the (monthly) primary trend is still bullish, notwithstanding that a recent lower low needs to be registered. ie. still downside risk prevails in the shorter term over the next couple of months. MACD and RPM technical indicators support this view. Also noted (the yellow arrow) that last month's candle was a bearish indication with a long upper tail, Shooting Star styled pattern. Furthermore, this month's halfway completed candle is already looking bearish, as it needs to. So, you get the idea... Overall, these suggest that the SPY should be targeting a downside somewhere between 325-355 from now to the end of 2022.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIIn continuation... From the previous post, the SPY was " due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier). " So, it maintained at a stall for the rest of the day and never broke above the high of the Sell SEtup 9th candle (411.73). And the next day, due to a pre-market report release about inflation not abating as expected, the SPY gapped down significantly that wiped out the previous two days of gains. Very uncanny huh? Note here that I do find Thomas DeMark nothing short of a genius (especially if you know how (t)his indicator was developed in the age of pencil and paper charts), and his Sequential indicators amazing... thing here is that it has very amazing degree of predictability of turns like these, but cannot tell you the depth of the retracement/trend change. So here is the break down in simplest terms I can put it... From the last post, the main reason why we could expect a pivotal reversal was that the Sell Setup (bright green box) was completed nicely ( also known as Perfected ), and this Setup did not complete higher than the TDST (the highest point of the opposing Buy Setup shown in red box with green dotted line at the upper range). What this means is that the primary trend is not bullish, despite the previous days of bullish rally, but is actually a primary bearish trend which is likely to resume after completion of the (second) Sell Setup). The main signal after the Set up completes is the TD Flip... where an opposing set of candles appear. On 12 Sept, the first candle of the TD Flip appeared at closing, and the next day first hourly candle completed the flip. You would see how the TF flip typically (but not always) forms the start of the opposing TD Setup. Well, there was a fundamental reason that spooked the market really hard to have a TD Buy Setup continue for the rest of the following trading day. Currently... After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup (aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish. Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji, which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7. Now, turning over to the MACD, it is about to cross under its signal line, in bearish territory. Looking ahead, Friday is Quad Witching, and it typically promises a lot more volatility. Plus, it is a Friday, and I would think most traders would not like to hold positions over the weekend. For a better picture of what to expect, we might need to zoom out to the Daily SPY chart. And... an alarm is set at 388, the most recent last low. Given the significant reversal, the bullish run (as described over the last weekend) was technically invalidated on Wednesday itself. No need for any fancy technical indicators, just one giant Gap Down that closed almost two Gap Ups wins hands down. Well, I do hope that the hourly analysis of the SPY in these two parts demonstrate how TD Sequential and MACD can be used (together with support/resistance and MA lines) to stay on the side of the trend where it is your friend. Do be careful, nimble and stay safe!
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
1
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACDJust a quick analysis for the Intraday SPY... Using the DeMark Setup, the SPY 1H just completed the second Sell Setup (green box). This Sell Setup is perfected, and might last a couple of hours more, but it is due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier). Reason being, the Setup did not clear the TDST (the highest point of the Buy Setup (red box)) at 420, and so the bearish trend is actually the primary trend. Furthermore, there is another level at 422 to overcome and this would be needed to close an earlier gap down range to be bullish. MACD and other technical indicators are showing some upward space in a rally that is old in the teeth. So, bullish as it seems, a (small) retracement is due. Wait for it.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
2
The SPY flipLast week, it was all bearish looking, and was very difficult to find a bull case. This week, the sentiment and perhaps even technicals appear quite the opposite as the week flipped it quite well. We start, as usual, with the weekly chart. The last week closed significantly higher, with a large bullish candle that appears to have overwhelmed the bears by closing well above the gap down range from two weeks ago, and above 400. While the MACD is about to cross under, the RPM indicates favourable support for this flip bounce. Resistance is seen at 418 ( above the weekly 55EMA) and the one to beat is 432. The daily chart shows the spectacular flip in detail, where the week started in a mild downward draft, and then the Bullish Engulfing pattern formed mid-week. This was followed through, and the week ended with a a nice gap up and run, to close above the previous gap range, as well as above the daily 55EMA. The MACD crossed over, and the RPM is about to cross over as well, supporting the bullish end for the week. Interesting to note, that the last day of the week also closed at the trendline resistance (green trendline). What this means is that any upside is a trendline breakout, clear and simple. So, this flip and turn out to be a bit bigger than anticipated, and might have broken the downward trend pattern. A tad early at this point to call it, but appears as a potential point in the most bullish case scenario. Taken together, this last week's flip appears bullish, and a bullish incoming week should follow through. Breaking above 418 and staying above it is the first bullish criteria; and 400 is now a significant support. Overall, the ranges are expanding, if not already wide. Trends are short and sharp at this point and flips like these can and will happen. Reading the chart(s) well and being nimble in thinking (instead of fixation on being right) is petinent. Be aware, be safe.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Auguraltrader
2
SPY down, what else is new?Looking at the SPY, it is clearly bearish at first glance. Weekly chart pre-empted three weeks ago, and it is playing out as expected. This week saw a follow through downside, that the last three weeks erased a almost all of a previous four week gain. Weekly chart begs the question of how low can we go, and target projected at 325. The daily SPY shows that the week started with a failed attempt to close the gap down of the same day. rest of the week was bearish history as technical indicators broke down into bearish territory. The week ended with Friday gapping up (on decent payrolls data) and then just losing it to go into the weekend. This resulted in what resembles a Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. It did not fully engulf the previous candle (although it did on a body to body comparison). This appears as a bearish indicator, but one that tells of some support at the lower end where the tails form. So, we can probably expect a bearish undertone, but the week ahead should stall, and probably have a consolidation or mini bounce. longer term projection still puts downside target at 325.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
Simple Intraday Anatomical Analysis of the SPY breakdownSo, last Friday the SPY was triggered for a hard down. And on Monday, there was a gap down opening, marked out by the yellow box which shows the gap range. If the SPY closes above the yellow box, it is reversing trend to bounce upwards; however, if it closes below the yellow box, it reopened the gap and is heading for more downside. Throughout the trading day, there was a clear attempt to close the Monday gap. And for less than an hour, the gap was closed, only to be promptly reopened. This formed the long overhead tails, that indicate selling, and the territory that the bears are winning. And then the day ended with with a nice down candle with a push down towards closing. Again, a bearish indication. The current issue is that it did not fully reopen the gap, meaning that there was no conclusive closure below the yellow box. So at this point, it skews the favor slightly more towards the bearish side. On the daily chart, the resulting candlestick formed is not very bearish (not red for a start) but is indicating through the long-ish tail at the top that some limited downside should be expected. The Daily technical indicators follow through further into bearish territory. So, here is the intra-day analysis of the SPY, pointing to a limited downside risk, not one to plunge like last Friday, but a likely lower low, especially after breaking below 402 (and 400 particularly). It is going to be a very interesting week, especially to review on aday by day analysis... so much to learn of a breakdown anatomically part by part. Take care!
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
2
S&P 500 index analytics: Terrible decision for the US economy. Analysis of the spx 500 index from 08/29/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 4057. Yesterday we saw a sharp drop in the index, which, as I understand it, was planned in advance by Jerome Powell. In his speech, he said that he would fight inflation by shrinking the real economy. That is what he had in mind and therefore his statement caused a sharp sale. Thus, at present, the market has moved into the red zone. And the market has ceased to be positive. We need to prepare for a deep correction of the index. What I'm looking forward to today: I expect the market to continue falling. And we will see a movement to the level of 3980. Here are my trading recommendations for today 08/29/22 What I recommend: If you want to go short: You can open short on the pullback, but limit your risks. If you want to buy: Buying in the market is prohibited, but limit your losses. If you are not in the market: Buying is prohibited on the market at the moment due to the possibility of a sharp fall to the 4000 level, but limit your losses. You can try to go short the market, but it's better to do it on a pullback, limit your losses. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index. See you next time! Goodbye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
SPY turned... hard down!What an eventful week! Well, at least a very eventful Friday! By now, most of us would have read about Fed Chair Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The markets did not take lightly to the stated prudence. Technically, we can see from last couple of week's analysis that the bull rally with old in the teeth, and that last week's SPY chart was a potential reversal, with a likely breakdown, and earlier breakout failure. The dramatic way it occurred tells much of the underlying sentiment. The weekly SPY chart clearly started the week badly with a gap down, following a bearish candlestick pattern last week. Then this bad start to the week worsened a lot more on Friday, with a massive downdraft that had the week clock a bearish marubozu styled candlestick. Bearish with some momentum. The SPY Daily chart made the bearish stance a lot clearer with the massive bearish marubozu on Friday that basically failed support and critically the 55EMA. Technical indicators all crossed under the zero line, supporting the bearish alignment. The breaking of both weekly and daily 55EMA on the same day, with a similar bearish marubozu candlestick is a very clear bearish indicator with momentum that calls for more downside. It is expected that there would likely be a technical bounce, so watch for the bearish turnaround to follow through the price action momentum downwards. Based on volume analysis (not shown here), a likely support range lies between 370-380. Similar to the NASDAQ analysis, there is a possibility for further downside, but not apparent at the moment; so tentative expectation of a higher low is still reasonable.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
I SPY with my little eye : a RARE SPY candlestick patternGood day! This is an unusual highlight, but I am so excited, and you would read on to find out why... Previously outlined, on 3 August, I played the devil's advocate and looked at a counter trend scenario. In this scenario, the SPY was still below the weekly 55EMA, and could fail to break above, then break down much further. Thing is, the weekly SPY chart is bullish as ever, and it looked possible but somewhat remote. At the beginning of the week, there appeared to be be some stalling and indecision on the SPY daily chart (yellow circle) and, over the last two days, with less than terrible data as expected, the SPY gapped up not once but twice. On Wednesday, the gap up was huge (see left 1H chart), and the day ended with what looked like a Gap and Run . This was followed by another gap up on Thursday, albeit a smaller gap. This was the first remote indication that the rocket to the the moon was about to sputter. As the day wore on, the SPY closed the gap... and very precisely closed the gap, in what is commonly known as Fading the Gap , or what I would prefer to call it - a Gap and Close . Technical indicators on the hourly SPY chart clearly shows a sputtering, perhaps expected from such a sharp rise over the last two days. So, in a Gap and Close, two common outcomes are either, a bullish reopening of the gap by ensuing price action or a bearish confirmation of the gap to remain closed. Here is the more interesting part: On the daily chart, the outcome is a rare candlestick pattern formed, called the Meeting Lines, and in this case, qualifies as a Bearish Meeting Line candlestick pattern , especially when it closed the gap precisely to meet at 419.99, at the apparent top of an uptrend. This is a presumed bearish reversal pattern, and requires a confirmation candle on Friday... yes, Friday, the end of the seemingly bullish week, the last day to determine the week's candle. Daily technical indicators are still territorially bullish but some waning signs are observed with the RPM crossing down, and a short term bearish divergence on the MACD. Furthermore, the volume (8MA, purple line) did not significantly increase nor trend up in support since mid-July. So... Friday is the most indicative day. Is the SPY going to break down (into the earlier gap range, below red support line) or find legs to bounce back and continue the bullish rally? I would be be very cautious , given the above. What do you think... and why? PS. Leading indicators: JNK has a long legged doji, indicating indecision; TLT & TIP appear to have reversed.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
11
SPY very bullish on low volumeIt is as clear as daylight, that the SPY is very bullish. The weekly chart closed the week at the very top of the candle, and more importantly above the 55EMA (about the same as the 200 daily SMA), clocking in a new recent higher high. Technical indicators appear to be supportive with MACD crossing over into bull territory. The daily chart shows the mid- to late-week breakout and also Friday's decoupling of the meeting lines candlestick formation with a bullish almost marubozu type of candlestick; almost as if this is a new uptick trend. The RPM is crossing over as the MACD pushes further up. Clearly bullish... at least for now. 417.62 now becomes a critical support.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
SXP500 Index: Waiting for the peak at 4280 spx 500 Index Analyst on 08/05/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 4151. And in the last trading week, we saw a sharp upward movement to our target zone of 4125. This is where a small correction caused by profit taking began.. Now the market is developing a steady movement, I expect that its local top will be around 4250 - 4280, however, if there is a sharp increase, the market will reach its maximum peak at the price of 4350. But today, the price of 4250 - 4280 seems to me the most likely. What I'm looking forward to today: There is a positive mood on the market and there is still a positive background for growth. I expect the market to continue its upward movement to the level of 4250 - 4280. My trading recommendations for the index as of 08-05-22. What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are prohibited. However, a good opportunity would be to open short in the area of 4250 - 4280. If you want to buy: You can buy in the market, but limit your losses. However, a good buy price would be 4050. The market may begin a correction caused by profit taking. If you are not in the market: If you want to buy an index, then you can do it at the market, but limit your losses. Short positions are possible from the level of 4250. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index. See you next time! Goodbye!
SP:SPXLong
by kvatoo_FX
4