Get started

SNP

SPY does not look very much better... So, October ended with Halloween, and its time to update the outlook for the longer term on the SPY Monthly chart. October underwhelmed September, but it still closed on a bullish candle nontheless. So might we be expecting a follow through bounce? I think the jury is still out... and a lot pivots on what action is taken by the FOMC, as well as its outlook. Bigger than that, zooming out to see the larger picture, a little unsettling was something eye catching - that there might have been a time in the not so far past that looked technically similar. The monthly chart have the two time lines drawn (white dotted vertical line). Back in August 2008, while 2008 presented as a pretty bad most of the year at that point (as it did similarly in 2022), there was a sense of optimism in the air just then, despite the monthly MACD (and MACD Signal) crossing down below zero. Then the next month saw all hell break loose. The technical picture then (simplistically) appeared to have broken a supporting up trend line, had MACD and MACD Signal lines cross down below zero, and the Volume Divergence cross down its moving average. Similarly, albeit on a larger scale, the technical outlook appears to be repeated on an amplified scale here. Presuming that the technicals uncannily unfold similar outcome, then by projection, the downside target could be the last major low... targeted about 200 on the SPY. Yes, about half of what it is just now. That is quite severe. In consolation, thus far, it appears that the projections point to a likelihood of 325-330 for the time being as previously assessed. However, if a series of black swans start to go off... then maybe, just maybe, this post will remind of where the SPY might be heading.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
The market is ready to turn, will it?Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/27/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 3830. Yesterday we saw a stabilization in motion and a decline in the market, as I mentioned earlier idea link below. In the near future, I expect an attempt to develop a correction. Today I expect that the market will continue to develop a correction and reach its bottom at 3780-3750. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth, where you need to look for places to open short positions from the level of 3970. What I'm looking forward to today: Today, I continue to expect the beginning of a correction and an attempt by the market to go down to the level of 3750. However, the market also has the possibility of a sharp fall in the index, so long positions are prohibited. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from 3950 which would be a perfect place to sell this week, limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you are out of the market: Long positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
1
Actual levels for opening short positions 3860-3950.Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/25/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at the level of 3797. Over the past trading day, we saw an increase in the index, without any attempt at correction. Today I expect the market to peak at 3860, where the correction will begin. If a slight correction starts today, then its bottom can be expected at the level of 3730. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth. Where you need to look for places to open short positions from the level 3860. What I'm looking forward to today: At the open today, I expect the market to try to drop again to the 3743 - 3715 level. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth to the 3860 level. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from level 1 - 3860, level 2 - 3950 this would be an ideal place to sell this week, limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are possible from the level of 3652. If you are out of the market: Long positions are possible from the level of 3652. Limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, it is better to do it from the level of 3860-3975, limit your losses. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the spx 500 index. If you'd like to help me promote my content, please hit the boost. See you next time! bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
3
SNP500 Mid-Term Short ExpectationDON'T FORGET TO LIKE (BOOST) This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
SNP500 Short Term Short Idea!Help me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
2
SPY on a sustained bounce?Last week's SPY action was again interesting, in another new way. But before getting into the details, what is not shown here is the Monthly SPY chart, and in that chart, October is the Perfected TD Sequential 9th candle of the Buy Setup. This suggests that within the next three months, a TD Flip (in the form of a shorter term uptrend) and Sequential is an increasing probability. the SPY is also around the Monthly 55EMA (indicated by the purple support line), which has been tested at least once in the last couple of months. The SPY Weekly chart shows the extended 8th candle of the TD Sequential with a long lower tail, and last week's candle broke the TD Sequential Setup with the start of an opposing candle. It had bounced off the Monthly 55EMA level, and candlestick formation suggest that an uptrend attempt is underway. While there is a lack of a weekly higher low, there is a slight MACD bullish divergence noted. Therefore, this bounce rally just might have some legs. The daily chart is a bit messy, as it accentuates the situation where a second attempt to rally up with a new TD Sequential Setup is met with many resistances. Favourable to the upside, having closed two gap up and reopened one gap down (Thursday's post), Friday's closing week action reversed the week's expected outlook, and with style in the form of a relatively solid bullish candle. MACD is supportive of the price action, and 380 is the next confluence of resistance that needs to be overcome. Noted that the downtrend pattern appears to have deviated, so one of three things is likely: 1. The downtrend is broken, resistance will be met and broken too, and a trend reversal should be in effect; 2. The resistances will hold at a out 380, and a reversal would happen to bring a lower low; and 3. A sudden event reverses and reinstates a strong move to the downside target. Right now, I am just watching this deviation as it continues to surprise in its development... nothing explicit at this point, so maybe a (real) walk in the park just might be needed.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
SPY closes all the recent gaps… oh!Yesterday’s SPY performance was significant, notably about closing and reopening the gaps in recent days. Here we take a look at the significance of these gap closures and an accompanying set of technical indicators which include MACD, Volume Divergence and TD Sequential. Using the 4H chart, the pink box shows the gap down and the gray and/or white box shows the two recent gap up ranges. Notably, yesterday’s close was significant because it reopened the gap down (pink box) after a failed intraday attempt to close it; this is a bearish indication. Furthermore, two previous gap up ranges (gray and white boxes) were also closed; also a bearish indication. Furthermore, the MACD just had a cross down on its Signal line and the Volume Divergence had already crossed down some time ago. All these indicators support a down trend. Using the TD Sequential, since the beginning of October, there have been about two truncated TD Sequential Sell Setup, and one perfected TD Sequential Buy Setup. A failed attempt to surmount the highest closing of that Buy Setup keeps the main trend bearish. And current closing candle is the second of a new Buy Setup indicating that more downside in the bear trend should be expected, at least for the next week. Do note that, the 4H chart was chosen for analysis as the daily chart was not only volatile but also lacking smooth inter-day transitions. Hang on peeps…
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
1
SNP500 SPX500 US500 Mid-Term Bearish Expectation Help me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
3605 a small but important level before the rise to 3840.Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/20/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 3695. And over the past trading day, we saw a slight decrease in the index, but there was no sharp drop, the market continues to be in the support zone. Today the market has every chance to fall to the level of 3605. However, if this attempt is broken, the market will fall to the level of 3200. Thus, globally, nothing changes. What I'm looking forward to today: Today at the open, I expect the market to try again to drop to the level of 3605-3670. But there is also a high probability of a sharp fall to the level of 3200 on the market. Therefore, long positions are prohibited. Here are my trading recommendations for today 10.20.22 What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from the 3840-3815 level, this will be the ideal place to sell this week, limit your losses. If you want to buy: Long positions are prohibited. If you are not in the market: Long positions are possible from the level of 3605 - 3570. If you want to open a short position, it is better to do it from the level of 3840 - 3815, limit your losses. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. If you want to help me promote my content, then press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation and help promote the content. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
2
SNP500 Short-Term ExpectationHelp me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
ULong
by SmartMoneySource
1
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17 Market testing for demand after breakdown of 3580. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) If market forms a rotation, possible LONG opportunity with test of 3808 2) Scenario for breakdown: Lower highs observed, or market hanging around 3580 level. Short on test and reject of breakdown area (since most breaks are normally false breaks) Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand Daily: Ave vol down bar closing at low = minor supply H4: UHV down bar close at low = some demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3903 3808 3580 3502 3350 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profit able trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
2
SPY - momentum NO, consolidation MAYBE, volatile YESAnother exciting week on the SPY! These type of weeks, is where and how people get burnt, especially IF they are not trading on lower time frames. The range of the higher time frames are in excess of 2.5% per day, and 3 out of 5 days in the week had such volatility in different directions! By the way, these volatility periods tend to happen when the VIX is above 30, with large moves in either direction on a daily basis. The weekly chart shows an overall picture where the down draft continues as previous week's candlestick pointed out to the downside. The week was not all down, and although it closed down, there was a good range for the week's candle... just over 6% from the week low. The weekly technical indicators are still showing bearishness, but do note that the TD Sequential is in the last candle of the Setup, which is pretty much perfected. So over the next 2-4 weeks, we can expect more downside towards the previously mentioned target of 325-335, and volatility to add intraweek range. The last week's candle is not giving much commitment to momentum, but maybe to possible consolidation, and definitely suggests volatility with wide ranges. The daily SPY chart appears to be more interesting at this point, with the development of the volatility obvious. The week started out with a gap down, Gap and Run, type of pattern. Especially after an intraday failed attempt to close the gap (observed by the upper tail), there was more downside to be expected. The SPY continued down further, and into a mid-week stall. But on Thursday, an interesting technical event took place... where it started with a large gap down and it was decisively closed with the early upside with a 5.5% range difference. This actually formed a very huge Bullish Engulfing, which candlesticks practitioners would declare bullishness, and a next day follow through would confirm. However, what started out looking like a confirmation on Friday with a gap up, closed and it that was it. It was made worse when Friday closed down (357.63) just above the previous candle body halfway mark (357.59). So strictly speaking, this is not a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, but is is close enough by 0.04 points. The way I see it is that the very bullish engulfing failed a follow through, and the supposedly Dark Cloud Cover also failed to totally qualify by 0.04... I would take it as an overall bearish outlook for the next week, with the caution of a possible bounce and definitely expecting long candles or candle wicks (tails). Also noted that the SPY closed below the June previous low, for the second time. Daily MACD is indicating a mild bullish uptick, but all else still drifting down... Overall bearish, with possible technical bounce mid-week (Wed-Thurs).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
4
SPY on the last leg DOWN (of 2022) The week has been nothing short of exciting and boring at the same time. See below... On the left panel, the SPY weekly chart shows a likely continuation of the downtrend. Outstanding is the week's candle wick, not the candle body itself. As highlighted by the red ellipse, the week's candle closed slightly positive, but left a really long upper tail to indicate that there is a lot of downward momentum pushing. Given that it is a positive candle might just mitigate the bearish undertone, somewhat if at all. Technical indicators are still bearish, if not slightly bearish. Perhaps more interesting is the daily chart for the week, where the SPY gapped up and ended promisingly just above the named 1st critical resistance on a huge Tuesday follow through move, after a flip on Monday. Alas Wednesday was an immediate stall, instead of continuing the momentum (boring...). And Thursday really started the snowball rolling when an intraday break of the resistance failed, and it ended with a bearish candle with a top tail. Friday said it all with a gap down and an early intraday close of Tuesday's gap up opening. At a point on Friday, the critical support was breached, but the close was just a last minute recovery. The candlestick patterns are suggesting a weak support to breakdown potential, for a lower low yet again, and towards the 325 downside target. It is also possible that next week brings a bounce, but should end similarly to the down bias. Just a mention that the TD Sequential Buy Setup started with Friday being the first candle. Not marked in the chart, but you can obviously see a (TD) flip. Interestingly, this week's daily chart appeared to have yet another set of symmetrical projections, as outlined by the blue lines. The earlier two down moves were of equal time periods, as are the previous two bear rallies. Noted that the the magnitude of the September moves were slightly larger than previously. Having observed so, a projected continued downside move points to a downside target of 335. This three wave pattern is within the last leg of the weekly three wave pattern (first posted in early August "Projection of a worst case scenario for SPY"). So far, the SPY has pretty much walked the path since, and appears to be on the last leg to complete the journey. Watch the 362 critical support; just need a decisive breakdown, a prior stall bounce notwithstanding. Wait for it... Downside target 325-335, end October 2022, still in range.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
SNP 500 Short-Term SHORT ExpectationHelp me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
SPX LONG 10-03-22This was the Analysis I posted yesterday before it got hidden by Tradingview for breaking one of their rules. It hit all the TPs! Let's blast off these analyses, click on BOOST! This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
ULong
by SmartMoneySource
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 03 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 03 Week Last week, ES' yielded the following results - Scenario1 short on rejection 3717 level yielded 90pts - Scenario2 long on dotted trend line + 3600 support yielded 50pts Observation: - Converging trend line - prefer to wait as range narrows Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Wait till price shows definite direction by exit of converging trend line as price converge, meaning narrowing range. 2) Short on retracement after breakdown of support or converging trend channel 3) Long retracement if price breakout of converging trend channel and finds support Weekly: Higher vol narrow spread down bar close at low = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close at low = minor supply H4: UHV down bar close at low = demand coming in Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3903 3792 3717 3642 3540-3600 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
S&P: THE KISS OF DEATH MOVE.Hello traders, welcome to this S&P 500 update. This is my first time analyzing the S&P 500 and I hope it will be helpful. To analyze this chart, I am using the 21 monthly moving average and the kiss of death pattern. The S&P 500 is on its way to making a bearish move and it got stronger after the price got rejected below the 21 MA. The actual confirmation came into the picture when the S&P 500 bounce back after the breakdown and got rejected for the second time, this is where the 'kiss of death' pattern took place. I am not blindly shooting arrows here. In the past, we have seen a similar move happening and that led the S&P 500 to drop around -44% to -53%. Considering the current scenario, if the S&P 500 happens to drop down then we can expect a drop around -50% at 2140 where we have good support. As we all know that S&P 500 is known to be the best overall measurement of American stock market performance and if this goes down, we know where the market is heading. That's it from my end. Please do share your thoughts and ideas on S&P 500 in the comments section. I will be honored to know more about it from your end. Thank you and trade safely.
FX:SPX500Short
by Dexter_The_Trader
5
TLT, UST10Y and SPY - a heads up relationshipI read somewhere recently about two co-relationships between bond prices/yields and the SPY. First was about TLT - where TLT goes, the market (SPY) follows it was said. Second, was about the UST10Y (US Treasury 10 Year Yields) having to abate its bull run before the SPY cools its bearish rout. So, I took the opportunity to put these thoughts together visually and overlaid their charts. Interesting observations between these three it seems... There are three highlighted periods in 2022, all of which provide a very similar pattern. Notably, the UST10Y has a tight inverse relationship with the TLT (UST 20Y Bond ETF), which is expected. And if we follow the markings in order... The time line starts the cycle where TLT brings the SPY higher as the two are in alignment to move higher, where the UST10Y drops. Then there is a period where the UST10Y rises, and the TLT falls, but the SPY continues to countertrend (from TLT) and head upwards. This is not sustainable and TLT gave heads up of that (red shaded red box). Int he rest of the red box period, this is where the SPY stop diverging with TLT and follows TLT int he downward move. The shaded red box is the period where TLT is like a leading indicator of the SPY. To restart this whole cycle, it also seems that TLT needs to have a MACD crossover, and a MFI Histo crossover; the time lines mark the MFI Histo crossover after the MACD cross over. Given these patterns, the current situations appears to favor a continued downside drift, at least until a MACD crossover, post MACD bullish divergence, and then a MFI Histo crossover. This would appear to take several weeks more. Heads up!
NASDAQ:TLT
by Auguraltrader
SPY closes the week and month decisivelyFurther yesterday's pre--market post, The SPY closed the week and month in a rather decisive fashion - at the low. The weekly chart (left panel) shows the SPY follow through the downward momentum, after breaking down the HULL EHMA and failing the 55EMA. The close at the week's low, pretty much, also set a new lower low close, having gone through the June low support. This candlestick shows downward momentum, although it might be easing off with a relatively shorter candle compared to the weeks before. The technical indicators support this view with the MACD crossing under and extending further below the MACD signal. Downside target of 325 (yesterday mentioned 330) still remains in sight. The monthly chart of the SPY (right panel) shows that as expected from the previous month candlestick, the failure to break and maintain above 416, with a long upper tail, followed through with a rather bearish monthly candle. This candle ended at its low for the month, with indication that there is great downward momentum due to the similar candle but larger body. The next candle for the month of October will be testing the monthly 55EMA at 354, just a few points away from the week and month close. Technically, the MACD and MFI all indicate further downside momentum to be expected, which also means a likely break of the monthly 55EMA should be expected. Not a very bullish outlook for October at all, with almost no slowdown in sight. From these charts, it would appear that October may start of slightly bullish, but should be overwhelmed by the bears to head further down to target at 325/330 as the month continues to the end.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
4
US500 SNP Short-Term AnalysisThis Analysis was done using my full Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Thoery - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - etc This expectation is a framework in order to look for a potential trading setup, I don't just execute based on this levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes Links for free teachings + full mentorship down here and on my profile
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
4
SPY can't get it up...Just a quick pre-weekend analysis and update about the SPY. Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little oversold, and at support cross-roads. With the bearish Buy Setup in force indicating a bearish primary trend, a bounce of some sort is still in the cards. So we play the bull and bear case scenario again. (Slight) Bull case sees a mild rally to about 380 (most likely, as it meets a set of resistances) or perhaps stretch to 390, where should start to stall and turn down again. The TD Seq Sell Setup should start with a TD Flip, then proceed to build but not likely to change the primary trend by exceeding 403. In fact, it might even truncate. If this scenario happens, it would take us to almost mid-October, and the rest of October might be pretty bearish to reach the projected downside target(s), 305 and 330, which have been readjusted for time. The bear case here is a consolidation around 370 and then most of October fall off the cliff type of bear market to 350, then to 330. The slight bull case appears more probable at this point with a favourable 70/30 skew. But whichever way, it is in the middle of a bear trend and it is not quite over. For now, I'd be watching the next week or two to see how this pans out... PS. So far, the projected lines (based on the symmetrical HH and LL pattern) is still robust and uncanny, which was posted on Aug 3.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
2