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SNP

MACRO VIEW: SNP LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN WIDER LATERAL RANGEOn technical basis, SPY (The S&P500 ETF) has broken down below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), while also breaking below 1 year mean (264 days). The price has now entered a downtrend on quarterly basis, and will continue to fall if price stays below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (207.1) Closest target is the lower 1st st deviation from 1 year mean (197.70) After the target is tagged, price will likely stay within 1st standard deviation from 1 year mean for some time (range will be 197.7 - 212.5) SPY is mostly influenced by upcoming September uncertainty, caused by upcoming US policy decision in regard to Iran (to leave it sanctioned or to open it up).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Killy_Mel
4
S&P500 IS LIKELY TO HOLD ITS LATERAL ASCENDING TRENDThe S&P500 stock index is likely to hold its lateral uptrend, which started back in the beginning of 2013, when the "Fiscal Cliff" debate between the White House and the US Congress was resolved in a positive way. The event also marked an "official" end of consequences of 2008-2009 financial meltdown, eventually sending key stock indices above their 2007 peaks. Since then S&P500 index did not experience significant volatility and traded above its 10- and 5-year uptrend borders (measured by upper 1st standard deviation from 10- and 5-year moving average accordingly). The index also traded within an ascending channel on quarterly basis (within 1st standard deviations from 66-day mean) most of the time. Thus at the current state of affairs, when US economy has recovered most of its losses from the 2008-2009 financial meltdown (except the housing market that is still catching up, of course) - it looks very likely that the key stock index will continue its lateral uptrend. The overall positive situation is confirmed by VIX, staying well below 20 level. The VIX is a volatility index which increases if the premium for put options on S&P 500 futures rise, in other words, when market participants expect a plunge in the S&P 500 index. VIX below 20 means there are no such overwhelming expectations at the moment. There are, of course, some key conditions and risks to monitor before making a decision about investing in the index. Primary risk comes from the fall in oil prices, surprisingly. In general, lower oil is a positive development for the US producers (if it is not caused by a global financial crisis, that is). Lower oil means cheaper resources and thus higher margins. The negative effect, however, comes from inflation measures, as the late 2014 fall in oil prices has led to a very significant decline in both CPI and PPI measures, with CPI falling to around 0% on y/y basis. Such risk of deflation can lead to a slowdown in US domestic consumption, which is vital for the US producers composing the S&P Index. Thus as a potential buyer of S&P500 one would like the oil prices to remain stable in observable future. Please see the related idea on oil for more details. Second risk is a derivative from the oil risk and comes from strength of US dollar, which appreciated broadly against all key foreign currencies (EUR, GBP and JPY) since the oil prices started their fall mid-summer 2014. On one hand higher dollar means that it is more and more attractive to hold dollar-denominated assets, S&P 500 index among them. However, even further appreciation of US dollar means more trouble for American exporters composing the index. US exports are becoming even less attractive on the global market in terms of prices. Dollar appreciation is already having its influence on US exports data, thus a potential buyer of the index would want the US dollar to remain stable (along with oil prices). Please refer to the related idea on EUR for more information. Another risk to S&P500 at the moment comes from other Dow Jones averages, such as Transportation Average and US Paper Index. Both averages underperform S&P500 at the moment. There are good reasons to watch those seemingly unimportant indicators. Transportation is one of the key industries of US economy, while paper index traces performance of companies involved in packaging of all the goods shipped. If fewer goods are being packed and transported, fewer goods are being bought, which in turn means a slowdown in the US economy. Idea is that if stocks of US transportation and paper companies decline in advance of broader market indices, it could well signal a slowdown in the US economy not yet accounted for by the general investing public. Thus a potential buyer of S&P500 index would want these two indicators trending at least laterally, not falling. Please see related ideas on TRAN
FX:SPX500Long
by Killy_Mel
SPX500This is a game changer people, look at the pink PRZ the price action moved very strongly in that area, denoting a further move downward. This is a no brainer, Where would it stop, look left. Now technically we should have taken some profits from this since my last post, and now we got a opportunity to short this, but know your limits and TP. Technically i would still be scalping long in this trade until it reach the D leg of the extended crab, or unto the blue line above. Though now as posted last time, fundamentally what i understood from Don Hogan, i think this is weakening and another info from nayr avellsomething, most of the big players such as the likes of warren buffet is already short on this, i think they had entered too early for the short on this one, but they can take the beating as for me i would short this for a long term post only until it reach the 2100. level as for now ill be scalping this until that level
FX:SPX500Short
by richbautista30
1