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S&P - GAFA+M (FX adjusted) ... doing nothing since aprilIf you take the 495 stock of the S&P and adjust it for the USD recent devaluation... We're stuck below a 0.618 retracement, under the moving averages and below what seems to be a declining trend line So we basically have 5 companies are supporting the rally... with 4 of them being investigated by the congress... I wouldn't even try to look at it in gold or EUR terms. Here is the formula: (SPX-(AMZN*501000000+FB*2851000000+MSFT*7571000000+GOOGL*1360327270)/8300000000)*TVC:DXY/100 PS: I like to adjust it for USD as it gives a better picture of the relative return for investors as for example in this case ,just holing euros would have provided a 9% return YTD.
SP:SPX
by TheMarketDog2
S&P500 interesting noted pattern... end of the bull runSince March 23, 2020, a massive bull run in the S&P500 and other equity markets had beholden the masses, shocked the institutional and professionals. Thing is, I noted a particular pattern or two here, as in the chart. First, there is a confluence of a pitchfork channel resistance and the regular horizontal resistance that maybe strong enough to stop the waning bull run. Speaking of which, if you follow the thick white faded lines, you see a tapering angle of rally from steep to less steep, to one that is flattening out in loss of momentum over time. Furthermore, in recent times, of the last leg (of the white line) is a repeated pattern of waning momentum as shown by the faded yellow lines. Technically, the MACD is due for a resistance level. So, it appears as if this aging bull needs a huge jolt upwards else, it is already showing its age very apparently. Note middle of August is the projected “bull slams into the wall and falls over” period. Be aware!! Beware!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
2
S&P500 BREAKOUT|STRUCUTRE ANALYSIS|DOUBLE TOP AHEAD? SPY is trading in an uptrend supported by the FED's "unlimited" liquidity pledge, that manifests itself in the two diagonal support lines. Both remain intact. As of today we are witnessing what seems to be a breakout of a minor horizontal resistance. IF the breakout is confirmed, read if the daily candle closes above the level, that would be a strong signal of a bullish continuation. The target is then the previous market high, where the double top pattern might emerge, as it is certainly the level at which many market participants will start to take profit on their longs, while others might consider opening short positions. Anyway, DO NOT short or sell SPY before both support lines get broken. Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a nice day.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ProSignalsFx
1
S&P500 weekly shooting star hints of a potential lower highJust stating the very obvious, there is a noted shooting start candlestick pattern on the S&P500 futures, ES1!, weekly chart. This is typically followed by a down candle to confirm a turn. The candlestick of formed with a larger selling pressure during the week, despite attempts to proceed upwards. Buyers were crushed by sellers, and the week ended lower than when it started (bullishly). An indication of the undercurrents of the market. The daily chart technicals was previously discussed, in the linked published idea. The weekly chart technicals are, nonetheless, bullish biased... at least up till now. The shooting star is the first indication, and we see 3100 as a critical support level. Note the red ellipses o the chart as these are expected potential target crossing areas. Bullish, until not. First warning given... wait for more to follow in the coming weeks. (In about two weeks time, there needs to be a close above 3150, else it should be below 3100. The market’s commitment would be rather obvious by then. Having said all that, if we view in relation to bonds, gold (and maybe silver), and other related charts like the USD, there is some ominous indication that something will give... and all we need is a trigger. Meanwhile, make hay while the sun shines!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
July speaks for S&P500 futures ES1!Yesterday closed the month of June and the S&P500 (futures) ES1! Monthly chart indicate a possible bullish longer term backdrop. Here is why: After a volatile June (with long tails on both ends of the candlestick), June closed just below the bearish trailstop line after bouncing off the monthly 55EMA a few months ago. Via candlestick analysis, one would have expected June to close higher than it did, but nonetheless, just short of turning the trailstop trend bullish. Technically, the MACD just crossed up and this indicates underlying bullishness. July and perhaps August would be critical months to establish the longer term bull trend or effect a (sudden) breakout failure and reversal. Not exactly committed nor decisive technically, and clouded by macroeconomic background. What is your take? Do share and we can discuss more...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
3 months after, here we are ....I couldn't resist noting the last 2 candles were the sames as the ones of Feb... What's funny though is that tomorrow is the options's expiration date. Is is was in Feb when the market started collapsing. I am not an expert in options but: 1)"An option will have no value if the underlying security is below the strike price (in the case of a call option) at expiration. In this case, the option expires worthless and ceases to exist. When an option is in-the-money and expiration is approaching, you can make one of several different moves. For marketable options, the in-the-money value will be reflected in the option's market price. You can either sell the option to lock in the value or exercise the option to buy the shares." (www.investopedia.com) 2) Read this :https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turbulence-ahead-2-trillion-june-op-ex-massive-76-billion-pension-selling-deck?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 3) Here are the strike prices : themarketear.com We can't say if it will be more bearish or bullish but there are chances it moves the market dramatically
SP:SPX
by TheMarketDog2
4
☆ SPX / USD SP500 — US Stocks Trading ☆Hello! Welcome on regular Daily chart update for S&P 500 and US Stocks market. Price is above 3000 resistance zone for 4 days already, and this Monday probably will be above it too, or at least close to it. I am still looking at 12345 Elliott Wave structure, and looking for the continuation inside sub (v). IMHO, After reaching resistance at 3200-3100 we are going to face first correction inside 12345 cycle. Yesterday's SpaceX's 1st astronaut launch was successful and this is one of sentiments of the market. This shows possible strength on the Stock Market. Back to technicals, Price still above EMA 21 on daily, this is good sign. So must say, stocks are running locally in bull trend, so i will trade them as a bull :) Stay tuned, this is Artem crypto
TVC:SPXLong
by ArShevelev
8
#US500 #SNP500 #SPX Bearish Hammer Candle Trader, there is a Bearish Hammer Candle #US500 #SNP500 #SPX. ____________________________________________________ Traders! if you like my ideas or have your own ideas to share on this market, comment below so that we can discuss. Disclaimer: The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by vikinsa
6
🤷‍♂Are retail investors getting caught in a major bear-trap?🔥The S&P500 has been in its longest bull market in history, did that come to an end in March 2020? Is this a dead-cat bounce or is the bottom in and we should starting putting on our S&P500 40k hats? One sign of this being a dead-cat bounce is that since 2018, the RSI (an indicator of the momentum) has been declining while prices have been rising. In 2019 and 2020 the RSI went below 50 for the first time in 8 years, while prices made new all-time highs. This does not mean it’s a dead-cat bounce, but shows signs that the bull market was already losing steam before 2020. There has been a slew of articles stating retail investors using apps like RobinHood is on the increase. With very little sports betting going on, many are turning their hands at trading to "buy the dip". During every bubble the ones that get burnt are retail investors who are the last ones to the party, the stock market just went on its biggest bull run ever, retail investors missed out and thanks to the lock-down have all come running in at once to hold the bags. RSI doesn’t show a lot of monument for such a strong price movement since March, this could be due to retail investors who usually buy in smaller amounts. What does the S&P500 need to push to new highs? The markets need good news, the best form of good news is from earning reports, companies keeping dividends etc. But we have not got that, instead we got higher job losses, dividend cuts, bailouts, bankruptcies. These are all signs of a fragile economy. The market is moving up on news of fresh government stimulus, but will this enough to get the market to reach all-time highs? If you keep printing money will that make the economy better? We are about to find out. If we do not breakout to the upside, we can expect to re-test the lows around 24,500 and if that does not hold, the 19,000 range.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by BangkokCharts
SPX: Potential Corrective Trend 1D (May 12)X Force Global Analysis: The S&P500 index has been showing a clear bull trend for the past few weeks. However, as the "V" shape recovery takes place, we witness a weakened bullish momentum, and a probability for a corrective trend to take place. In this analysis, we explore the bullish and bearish technicals to determine the probability of a correction. Bullish Evidence - First of all, it's important to note that we have broken through the descending trend line resistance, marked in the dotted red line - In doing so, we have created what looks like a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal pattern - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear uptrend, with higher lows - And the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still demonstrates bullish histograms after a golden cross Bearish Evidence - However, based on Elliott Wave counts, there is a probability for a corrective trend to take place - We have seen a clear Impulse Wave count (12345), and are expecting a Corrective Wave (ABC) to play out, possibly down to the 0.618 Fibonacci support - The MACD is looking for a death cross, with decreasing bullish histograms - It's also important to note that while we have been in a bullish trend for the past few weeks, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Ribbon has not converged yet - Thus, solely based on the EMA Ribbon, it's too early to confirm the continuation of a bullish trend - Moreover, we are not only testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance, but the band width is also narrowing - The narrowing of the band width usually occurs before a big move Market Sentiment: Surprisingly, the market sentiment still remains at fear, as we are at 44 on the fear and greed index. This indicates that the market participants are cautiously bullish. What We Believe We believe that a correction is highly probable, based on Elliott Wave counts, and a number of other bearish indicators. However, should we see further bullish momentum from this point, it could serve as a confirmation for a continuation of a bullish rally. Trade Safe.
TVC:SPX
by XForceGlobal
2
SPX: The Great Depression and Today's Market 1W (Apr. 27)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS: The Great Depression that took place in 1929, took 10 years to recover, and is still remembered as one of the most devastating events that hit the stock market. Today, the stock market is recovering from a devastating hit caused by a virus outbreak (COVID-19). Governments and banks have worked together, initiating both monetary and fiscal policies to resuscitate the market. However, doomsday theories arise, comparing the current situation to that of 1929. In this analysis, we explore the possibilities of a Depression in 2020. Analysis - First off, we look at the technicals, comparing the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1929, and the S&P500 in 2020 - Visuals demonstrate a similarity in terms of the general trend - Both charts start off with a parabolic move (not demonstrated above). - Then, a phase of consolidation - marked by the red zone - which represents base 4 of a parabolic move - The first thing to note during this phase is that we see an extended bearish divergence - Prices form higher highs and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms lower highs, demonstrating a lack of strength in the bullish trend - After reaching the peak, we see the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) form a death cross. This death cross marks the beginning of a temporary bearish trend reversal - Then a bounce near the trend line takes place. During the Great Depression, DJI bounced over 50% before continuing to drop. SPX has currently bounced over 30%. - As it bounces, an ascending bearish wedge pattern is formed - As the ascending wedge pattern reaches resistance between the 0.618 and 0.5 FIbonacci resistance zones, a rejection takes place - Prices drop further, and we see a continuation of a downtrend following the descending trend line, marked by the dotted purple trend line. - According to Ray Dalio, one of the most successful hedge fund managers in history, there are debt supercyles - The last debt supercycle ended in 1929, and usually last 50-100 years - Because this crisis was initiated by a viral outbreak, the real economy has also been significantly damaged, with unemployment rates having skyrocketed Counterarguments - Unlike the government and banks back in 1929, we are more prepared for a crisis today. - The US has initiated Quantitative Easing at an unprecedented rate, and the Fed has cut interest rates like never before in history - As biomedical companies heavily invest in medicines and vaccines, we see hope in eradicating the virus. - Since this crisis was triggered by the virus, mass production of a vaccine could immediately end the crisis (driven by bullish anticipations of the future), and possibly take us to all time highs - The doomsday prediction has been a popular argument for years. Ray Dalio has also been taking about the possibility of a debt supercycle since 2016. Market Sentiment: The fear and greed index for the S&P500 Index still points towards fear, despite the huge bounce we have recently witnessed. What We Believe It's impossible to perfectly predict and time the market. Leveraging for maximal positions in the market is definitely not optimal, and so is terminating all positions to catch the bottom. We believe that the trend is your friend. Identifying short, medium, and long term trends is absolutely essential, and choosing the right stocks, with strong fundamentals that can stand the test of time throughout this crisis, is the recipe for success. Trade Safe.
TVC:SPX
by XForceGlobal
12
SPX: A Technical Approach to the Stock Market 1H (Apr. 20)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS: In this analysis, we take a purely technical approach to the S&P 500 Index. Bullish Evidence - We see a bullish divergence, with higher lows on the price, and lower lows on the indicator - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower lows, as well the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) - We are also creating higher lows and higher highs in an ascending trend line, having broken through a lot of strong resistances - The RSI is looking for another breakout through the descending trend line resistance Bearish Evidence - However, we also spot a bearish divergence, in which the price forms higher highs, and the indicators show lower lows - The RSI is trading within a downtrend, showing signs of weakening strength, forming lower highs and lower lows - The RSI is at overbought levels - The MACD also shows greater bearish histograms and a downtrend in the moving averages, showing a lack of momentum - On the bigger picture, we are trading within a bearish ascending wedge Market Sentiment: We are still at the 'fear' zone in the fear greed index, but as the stock market showed a strong bounce, bullish sentiment begins to kick into the market again. What We Believe Based on purely the technicals demonstrated in the chart above, it seems as though the probabilities for a bearish case are higher. However, given that we take into consideration the amount of money the US government and Fed is looking to pour into the financial market, as well as the improving situation of the Corona Virus (Covid-19) in the states, the bullish scenario's probabilities aren't comparably too low either. Trade Safe.
SP:SPX
by XForceGlobal
5
Covid crisis and S&P500The previous resistance at 2635 was broken after 3 attempts and now, forming the new support line at that level. New resistance is currently at 2810 and has been tested twice. Look like it might head down a little before trying the resistance again. The stock market continued to rise last week, even as Labor Department data continued to show signs of high unemployment level. The most straightforward reading of the mismatch between the stock market and the labor market data is that Congress did a much better job preserving the value of capital owners’ investments than of saving jobs. Another reason might be that investors have gotten very optimistic. It’s true that intense restrictions on activity seem to be effectively slowing the spread of the virus. And it’s true that the Italian and Spanish experiences suggest that means that we could be seeing declining deaths and case volumes by the end of April.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_hao