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S&P500 Weekly chart has bearish biasThe S&P500 futures chart is bearish biased, with a skewed potential to the downside. Candlestick for the week was green but not awesomely bullish, in fact, looked as it the bulls gave up some ground instead. The coming week needs to close below 3323 to continue the downslide with more commitment. MACD is supportive of more downside having crossed down, and the week incoming should be breaking down and out of the channel. Support at 3200, target for next week is 3100, or slightly above meeting the 55EMA. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
S&P500 Monthly chart long rangerThe month just turned over, and perhaps it is time to check out the long range charts to have an idea of what might be heading our way. The chart's most immediate feature is the bearish candlestick of September which lies inside the bullish candlestick of August. This pattern is typically a reversal pattern with the following month down to form the Three Inside Down. While this is a slight variation (the shadows overextended), it remains bearish biased on a couple of observations; the candlestick pattern is formed at the resistance of a widening wedge and the MACD is stalling. The Bull case and Bear case resistance support levels are highlighted in the chart, with a range of 200 points, marked out by the green and red lines. The ket level is 3265, and if October closes above or below 3265. One thing is obviously certain here... There will be increasing volatility over the years to come. Just look at the widening wedge!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 (Futures) edging much further downLooking at the weekly S&P500 futures ES1, there appears to be strong suggestion of more downside to come... First, there is higher volume in the September sell off with supports being broken. 3065 holds an important support level, which is likely to be broken. Second, MACD crossed down with momentum, suggesting weeks of downside bias. Third, the net positions of the non-commercials (orange line, second last lower panel) and the largest 8 traders point to less accumulation, or worse, net selling. This is particularly clear in recent week (see fuchsia ellipses). The above, together with the rise of the USD, is telling of more weeks of downdraft... like a perfect storm. 3000 appears to be a strong support level, and should be testing within the next weeks... leading up to a decision point just about at the US Presidential Elections. Watch 2800 too by November. Any additional perturbations will see a breakdown of 2800 support to 2400. Volatility incoming!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
S&P500 Downside Bias is apparentMany narratives out there these days, from mild retracement, buying opportunities, etc. Strictly technical, the retracement only just started and may be good for another month. No major crisis upfront yet, but the weekly charts are showing some head winds, possibly until close to the US Presidential elections or just after. MACD turned down, and crossing over. Candlesticks suggest more downside to follow. Supports at the top end have been broken, twice. Target about 3000, end October, being a critical support. At this point, nothing major is happening but developments for an interim crisis can occur... looking more like a black swan(s). Watch for it, just waiting to...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
S&P500 clearly broken downJust a quick sum up that the S&P500 has already broken down... 1. The top was a bearish engulfing that wiped out a weeks worth of gains in a single session. 2. System (ATISver5) is bearish with Sell signal qualified. 3. MACD crossed down. 4. Technical rebound failed at 3400, the previous top n February 2020, making a Lower High. 5. MACD crossed over into bear territory, below zero. 6. A Lower Low was just made, with the lowest close in September. Next two weeks should see 3120, by the end of September, just to target the downside... with a possible bounce about 3230. Noted a week ago, it was already clear, perhaps now is clearer.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Why Beginners Lose Money Even in an UptrendIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, i'll be focusing on the psychology aspect of trading and investing that most people overlook. Contrary to common belief, in my personal opinion, understanding a trader and investor's own psychology is significantly more important than educating oneself on trading techniques and learning how to read financials. 'Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing? There are four major mistakes that most beginners make: 1. Excessive Confidence This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins. 2. Distorted Judgements While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place. 3. Herding Behavior The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically. 4. Risk Aversion Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses. Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages: - Anxiety - Interest - Confidence - Greed - Doubt - Concern - Regret As we can see in the chart for the S&P500 (SPX) , there are price points at which beginners would buy during their 'confidence' phase, and sell during their 'concern' phase. As a result, they would be losing money even when the market moves in an upward trend. Even when the market is at a clear uptrend, it goes through phases of impulse moves, and corrective moves. However, as beginners are swayed away by their emotions, they fail to recognize the overall trend, resulting in them buying high and selling low . Conclusion The most important thing that beginners need to realize before they start trading or investing is that human beings are emotional beings, and as a result, they are not different from the rest of the people in the market. All successful traders and investors throughout history have had superb meta-cognition. They understand their own psychology, as well as that of other participants in the market, allowing them to make rational decisions with patience, rather than hasty decisions based on emotions.
SP:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
121
TIPS hint of a S&P500 breakdown...TIPS is an leading indicator, according to Russell Napier, and it is one of the few leading indicators that have been shown to pre-empt market movement (most of the time). In this comparison daily chart of TIPS and the S&P500 (orange line),you can see the recent lead but TIPS, and it is now under a Sell signal, with technicals pointing to the end of the bullish rally. And yet the S&P500 is weakening, stalling and just about to roll over. TIP is about to breakdown a trendline, and MACD is also rolling over into the bearish territory, soon. A thought to consider...
AMEX:TIP
by Auguraltrader