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SPX500USD 2021 Feb 01 Week OANDA:SPX500USD SPX500USD 2021 Feb 01 Week Red/Green zones = preferred entry Grey = price rotation zones We saw the last 2 bars testing the close of bar 1, into a previous price rotation zone. Due to the net difference between the last 2 closes being quite tight, we may: 1) see some time to clear buyers 2) sellers come in strongly & take out low of 1 Evidence of buyers returning to defend is I would like to see a down bar closing in the middle or higher, then wait for buy opportunities in the lower time frame.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
S&P500 Weekly chart IS bearishThe week passed was really eventful. The S&P500 is bearish, techncially clear as well. The week's price action formed a massive bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This pattern typically is followed by another bearish candle to complete the Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. Which strongly suggest that the coming week is bearish! Note that the momentum is downward biased as there is very little tails on either end, and one week wiped out three and a half week's of gain. In support of the nbearish tone and momentum, the MACD crossed down, and also out of the MACD Bollinger Bands. Yes, I put BB onto my MACD so that I can tell when the momentum is strong enough to continue... The purple channel was a price range that formed earlier, and price broke out of the resistance, and it was tested several times. But now, it broke down back into the channel... this is a channel breakout failure, and we can expect a breakdown to exit on the other side, perhaps to meet the 55EMA. Notwithstanding, the beginning of the month tends to be bullish, and it remains to be seen how much bullishness can sustain, so we can expect a volatile and bearish week incoming!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
VIX held the key to the heads up for a cliff hanger...Seen here is the VIX chart, and notably, two segments are highlighted. First the Green box where VIX dropped to 21 as SPX rose higher. However, later on, in the Red box area, a siumilar rise to the same level was not concomitantly seen with VIX retracement. In fact, the VIX was resilient in holding its ground at a higher level. Subtle, but very significant. A good learning point and we should see more of such... usually the downside moves are significant under these circumstances.
CBOE:VIX
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 hourly chart pans out bearish bias adn what is next...As highlighted previously, this is a breakdown of the technical development of yesterday's market tank. 26 Jan gave heads up of the impending trend change. There were two ranges (white rectangles) pre and post Trump-Biden transition Lower High and Lower Low series happened, then it puked... VIX gave clear and present danger heads up (another story in review) So how now, brown cow? Bounce underway... should see stalling about 3780 and then look for next breakdown to 3600
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Still bullish on the SnP500Indeed. In the middle of a major fractal pattern here with still more room to move up. Goaling for early to mid 3900s before reassessing again. With the election in the US over and done with, we may be looking at another major rally that tend to happen after confidence is up post elections. On the other hand, we are facing a second wave of Coronachan and what appears to be an unavoidable economic collapse of sorts. There is no other way but to play this one by the ear. But, as of now, the picture looks good for longs. Not financial advice.
SP:SPXLong
by Rykin_Capital
S&P500 Weekly Topped... Set for a FALLThe past week appeared to be well until Friday, when the 'US equity markets pulled back hard suddenly (after Biden's release of stimulus details, on the contrary). The turnaround was highlighted as it happened, see linked idea. Now that the week is done, the technical outlook strongly suggest a top in the S&P500 ES1! futures. Candlestick pattern formed is known as the inside candle, the first part of a Three Inside Down, typically seen at tops... and yes, the incoming week, should end down to complete the pattern. IF it gaps down on Monday open, then it would be shifting the bearish bias further in. The last time we saw something similar was about a year ago, at the onset of global pandemic realization. What followed was a massive slide down a very slippery slope. Despite worse off (economic) conditions than a year ago, the index is higher than when all these started. And taking into account the current global situation, we find ourselves in a larger global Wave 2 , just surpassed 2 million deaths globally on Friday. That is the first and most obvious divergence. Other technical divergences are apparent, with the MACD and MACD Histograms clearly indicating that this bull run is not sustainable by any measure. The Relative Price Indicator shows a clearer divergence, having just crossed down. A pertinent point on this chart is that over and above the clear divergence, price moved out of the daily Bollinger Bands and just got pulled back in. At the very least, this action tends to have a typical movement over to the other Bollinger Band, placing the first downside target at about 3600, then next stop at 3200. Watch as the week develops... For those not invested, it is going to be a very good real time example, especially if you see how it develops fractally over the daily chart, the 4H and 1H chart. For those who are invested, it is perhaps time to review, and draw some lines, maybe do some hedging plans, etc. Have a great week ahead!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
S&P500 Finally has a trend turning indication...Earlier today, incoming POTUS, released details of his new stimulus plan (after market close). It appeared to be rather aggressive, but the S&P500 futures only accorded a mild gap up overture (1H chart), only to close down the gap in the next hour. Chart here is the 4H ES1! S&P500 futures chart, which broke down just... The main point here is that there is a price range after series of record highs, and finally, it appears to be fresh out of juice. There is a classical twin peaks, with a Lower High on 13 Jan, and the Lower Low that was just made. Note that the Bollinger Band is being pushed as well, and it remains to be seen if there is a pull or a drop following into the pre-market hours. Meanwhile, the price momentum (lowest panel) is indicating the start of downside momentum, and the MACD just crossed over into the bear territory. Also noted in the chart that the system sell signal just triggered. Looking forward to downward momentum almost 50 points, a Lower High, and then the last low support should be giving way... Stay safe & have a good weekend ahead!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Why the Storming of the Capitol doesn't matter to the marketsOn the ground, it feels like a momentous day in history. Since this time last year we've had a third impeachment, electoral primary upsets, viral pandemics jump species to infect humans, months of protest, one of the strangest presidential elections in history, and now the Capitol be stormed by partition demonstrators in a manner thusfar unseen in the United States, and for the first time since 1814 with the pesky brits did it. I couldn't be prouder to be an American. And yet, the markets didn't seem to care much. Come to think of it, the outcome of the Georgia senate runoffs didn't matter either. But I'm going to clue you in on a little secret. Had the demonstrators/insurrectionists focused their efforts just a few blocks away at the Eccles Building that houses the Federal Reserve the market would've crashed. Why? Well that might interfere with the precious money printing. That's right, this is another post about how our currency is being manipulated, the fed is going to end the stock market, etc, etc. I can tell you with a straight face, don't short this thing. It's too dangerous. Yes, it's a bubble. But don't try and short anything . Consider every sector bullish. The money supply is just that high. We're gambling with the USD and the global currencies. This is a dance with the devil, and the risks are catestrophic. For over a decade the FED has funneled money to the rich in the form of "Quantitative Easing" (fancy-talk for asset inflation), by taking their titles unwanted debts and covering them. Like a rich, trust-fund daddy's girl, the wealthiest have been able to skate by, pawning off their mistake to the Central Bank. Except the FED doesn't pay with their money . They pay using everybody's money. They don't just pay with the money we have now, but money that we will have later. It's a good grift. What do the wealthy do with their newfound freedom (from bad credit)? Well they invest it, of course. Some go off and create more bad debt with more crappy loans. But in this day and age most goes towards the great stock bubble of the 2020s. I'll cut to the chase. Here's what you need to know. This bubble is massive. The best thing in the world would be for this thing to pop. But, it probably won't anytime soon. If you want to hedge against inflation, start gambling now. In fact, you've already started by having a savings account; except the FED is placing the bets, and you can never win. But you might lose and lose big. What to do Beware of those that say that the sky is falling when really the ground is rising. This is a Noachian deluge of cash we're riding, so don't try to drink this ocean. Ride it. We're in, what I like to call, a "2 call 1 put" market. It only goes up, until it's in a major correction. Meh.
AMEX:SPYLong
by PreferredStonk
3
S&P500 Monthly chart alert!It is the last week of the year and I took some time to look at the S&P500 monthly chart. Three things sounded alarms bells when I saw the chart! They are: 1. Weekly chart indicators have bearish divergences observed as the S&P500 (see linked idea) as well as divergences in the monthly chart indicators over the last two years; 2. Monthly chart has a candlestick breakout pattern but the momentum is about 20% of previous monthly candle. This candle is also way out of the extended Bollinger Band range (using 2.2 standard deviations instead of 2 SD), as shown by the cyan lines. A very dangerous reversion to mean combi, if you ask me.; and 3. The lowest panel is the Net positions of Non-commercials and if you see clearly, the circled area is where there has been massive offloading into a net short position for the month of December. Combine this with the price action, this really appears to be distribution... at the top, at the all time high, at the over-extension outside a 2.2 Std Deviation level. Projecting foraward... January 2021 should be heading for a new all time historical high, and then watch for the intraday, intraweek reversal pattern. We do need a trigger event, which at this point, appears to be something of a surprise. Hence, a sharp pullback may be in the order to the region of 3200-3300. Oh... watch the VIX and the USD for early indications too. Taken together... it is very ominous. Caveat Emptor!!!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
S&P500 Weekly bearish bias continues... Looking into yet another week of the S&P500, the bearish bias is still there despite a slight push to the upside over the last weeks. This inevitably has formed into a bearish divergence. See the MACD panel where the histograms and the MACD signals are aligned in the bearish divergence. The lower two panels are the Net non-commercial interest and the Top 8 traders Net positions... both of which are net short, and increasing so. These indications suggest that the S&P500 is likely to be due for a pullback in January 2021. Looka like it will be a surprise. Get ready!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 has been bearish divergent for a monthIn the last one month, the ES1! (S&P500 futures) have been obviously divergent and continues to be so. We have seen this before in recent times, particularly before COVID-19 struck the markets. Although divergent, the market does what the market wants, and this can hold out for a very long time. It just leaves us with a warning that at some point, a trigger could, and would, set the ball rolling down into an avalanche. With the seasonally thin trading volumes this week or so, perhaps expect the first week of 2021 to see some proper resolution of this bearish divergence.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
Best Trading Ideas for StocksWe were spot on with our analysis in the S&P two days ago, where we predicted it would reject the lower bound of the channel, then make a run for it again. We didn't anticipate stocks to dip so low, but the overall behavior was correct. We did warn you to perhaps enter at lower levels. Current levels should provide enough resistance to see another dip before it makes new highs. The Kovach OBV is picking up, but not very strong comparatively and the Chande is flat, suggesting we may have some retracement before another burst of momentum comes through.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Watch that line!The S&P500 appears to have come to a coiling point yet again. It has stalled since the shooting star formation, but did not capitulate into a breakdown... yet . The stall has a up trending support (red) line that appears nearing to be at risk of breakdown. MACD suggest a weak bounce to fall further as it is in the bear territory already. As does the Relative Price Strength indicator show a turning over. This brings a potential breakdown to Tuesday or Wednesday next week as it would breakdown through the 55EMA as well. I would be wary...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
$SPX - It formed a Symmetrical triangleHello everyone! When the world goes lockdown on Wave 2, the US remains in lockdown since March, and guess what, it was a pretty damn good March to November for the US Indices. Despite losses in major fields, tech companies showed significant growth and revenue, pharmaceutical companies were on the spot as well, and in general despite DXY dropping since then, SPX for example pumped up higher than ever this year, so I'm guessing if we are going to see more surprises in the market. From the technical point of view, I think the wave count might be incorrect because of the curve-shaped previous impulse, though looks perfect to me, but in general the direction is right. SPX is about to break out of the triangle and move towards new highs, which I'm guessing could be 3600. Though before we get super excited and place long on SPX here, I'd highly recommend to see the next actions inside the triangle.
SP:SPXLong
by realMarketSurfer