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is the snb weakening their currency?The British Pound has been getting crushed by the Swiss Franc since 11/21 but starting 4/8 the Pound has managed a nice counter-trend rally. The reasons for traders to flock to the Franc for the Pound are more than I wish to list in this post. Any currency can manage a counter trend rally, but if the fundamentals are against that currency, the rally will quickly run out of steam. If the Pound breaks through the 1.4100-1.4150 level, it currently occupies and starts a rally to the 1.47 area the technical damage is substantial, and we declare the downtrend over. From a fundamental standpoint, there is no apparent reason for the market's sudden change of heart. One possible explanation is an intervention by the Swiss National Bank who don't like to see their currency become two strong since it makes exports expensive and can be harmful to the economy.
Long
by positionforex
CHFJPY: Want to short oil? Here's a nice proxy pair...CHFJPY is offering a terrific reward/risk opportunity in the daily chart. As you can see I have marked a level of net short positioning for oil futures traders, as well as added the oil line chart as an overlay to the comittment of traders report data indicator so you can see what happened the last time commercial hedgers' net short positions reached these levels. I anticipate downtrend continuation naturally, and as you can see, this pair is a good alternative to outright shorting oil futures, and if you factor in pips instead of % distance, it can outperform the oil shorts, with potentially lower risk (considering the way the chart's setup). As a sidenote, commercial traders are now net short the Swiss Franc, which is good incentive too. (They have been wrong in the Yen, but large specs have captures all major moves in it and are net long and increasing longs currently). Entry is either a new daily low, or a retracement to the red triangle tip with stops above the red line or using 1 to 3 times the daily ATR value. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
USDCHF: Quarterly uptrend almost confirmed but weekly is bearishIn my previous publication I shared an optimum level to go long USDCHF using the quarterly uptrend stop loss. Currently we have retested this key level, and rallied, but we approach a heavy resistance zone and the weekly chart presents a confirmed 13 week decline which aims for 0.93084. I had added the FOMC key levels, which represent support and resistance levels derived from price action around the Fed's meetings and minutes release dates. They let us anticipate direction and targets for the moves in this and other pairs heavily affected by their decisions. Any of these levels presents an opportunity to fade the retest utilizing an ATR based stop loss. In this case, I'd be looking to short USDCHF higher, anticipating the completion of the weekly downtrend target, but I'd be extremely careful when approaching the quarterly mode (or more frequent price) at 0.9476. When and if March closes without retesting said level, a quarterly uptrend will then become active, and we will be able to long this pair safely, and aim for 1.3000 in the future. Let's see how price behaves, follow the reaction to key levels, and the market reactions to news events and you will be in good shape. Happy Easter! Ivan Labrie
by IvanLabrie
4
GBPCHF Bearish Probability Primarily a technical play but with the recent ECB action, the CHF may appreciate versus other pairs as the EUR catches a bid. Brexit fears, as much as they seem forgotten may take centre stage once more as the first quarterly round of Central Bank activity ends next week. This contrast makes FX:GBPCHF a favourable play. With the break of the ascending trend-line a subsequent retest, the anticipated move is to the downside. Target 1: 1.39300 - 1.39000 Target 2: 1.37500 - 1.38000
Short
by JeffMzee
The Swiss franc *might* go lower, but only so farThe Swiss Franc has always been one of my favourite currencies to trade because it abides by support and resistance lines... except when the SNB intervenes.... ouch that one hurt. In any case, what you are seeing here are arrows point up from very strong resistance lines stretching back several months. The A arrow points up from the weakest support, the second arrow points up from declining support and the I arrow points up from monthly support. Either way, the USDCHF will bounce up from one of these lines, though as a caveat, a break below and I'd be closing off all your CHF positions. RSI and CCI are overbought, a confirmation from the MACD would confirm buying opportunity. Selling CHF also pays overnight premium.
Long
by maccabean
EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB MeetingThe Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold). With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention. Traders are not pricing in any significant change in monetary policy from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position. Price action is stagnating within a demand zone, and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go). I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the demand zone. If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860. If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Update status
by CommoditiesTrader
Trade of the day. Buy USDCHF. Oversold.This could be a very profitable trade. The way I see it is that the price is oversold, dropping to fundamental support. Now, this is important, if the SNB anticipates larger QE by the ECB, they will drop the interest rate further into negative territory. This could be a huge event as the SNB believes the currency is already severely overvalued. The SNB will hit the market like they did a year ago with this announcement. I recommend buy stops with stop losses below long term support.
Long
by maccabean
USDCHF: Massive downtrend failure screams longThe previous analysis on this pair failed and led to a massive paradigm shift in the markets, which struck me with clarity. I'll look for long positions in this pair on any chance that I get. The quarterly chart has an uptrend signal that will confirm by year end's close, as long as it's above 0.9324. There's resistance above, let's see how price reacts to it. I'll update with my entry once I'm in with sufficient reasons. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
SLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USDCHF: SNB might suprise everyone again...soonI'll be entering shorts this week before the close, the potential is very good, even if only the 'local' trend signal goes in effect and hits the target. If this trend signal works, a larger 18 week decline will become valid, and we could expect a very sharp drop towards 0.75972. This is also illustrated by a modified Schiff Pitchfork that I drew using key highest low and lowest high pivots. You could use traditional highs and lows too, but I find the highest lows and lowest highs more telling, since they reveal what the last bastion of the buyers or sellers was in each leg. A very good idea derived from Tim West's teachings. Fundamentals are bearish for the dollar, and we also have the commercial futures traders on our side, on this and the Euro longs, so I think this setup is of considerably high probability. Should you take it, good luck! We'll need it when dealing with the SNB bag of tricks. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
USDCHF: Potential nested impulse - UpdateThere's an active daily time at mode uptred at play here, and the price seems to be forming a pair of nested impulses in EW terminology. This is secondary in my analysis but I suspect that we will see a correction take place, allowing us to enter a long position with excellent risk/reward tomorrow. The fibonacci retracement levels or the low volume support area below might stop the decline. I'll update with the setup, London might give more clues, hopefully not triggering a setup before I wake up. Good luck, Ivan. UPDATE: Correction almost complete! It looks like we might have an excellent buy opportunity soon. UPDATE 2: Entered and already closed 75% of the position. Looking to scale in on a retracement. Potential daily target:
Long
by IvanLabrie
11
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All! As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December. I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec. As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well. In a nutshell... IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro. IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news) IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year) So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers. any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89
by SolidSnake
1
A long term trade that will 100% pay off. GuaranteedAs Swiss franc is exposed to events in Europe (high correlation to EUR) plus negative interest rate that will likely increase, ie becoming more expensive to store funds in CHF, Swiss banks will likely become less and less of a safe haven as other currencies become more attractive or even perhaps Gold. Also, don't forget with new tax and bank secrecy laws, Switzerland is becoming less and less a destination for offshore funds. In any case, Switzerland has a manufacturing sector to protect and preventing the CHF to increase further will be a job for the SNB. On the other hands, the US economy is shaking off the winter blues and looks to increase rate in the next six months perhaps making it a destination for global funds as a carry trade.
Long
by maccabean
1
CHF: Index chartWeekly and daily paint a bearish picture for the Swiss franc overall. It's interesting to see how well time at mode has mapped the different moves, timing or predicting price and time levels. Next week after the close a weekly uptrend signal will have expired, but the interesting part is that the target has been exceeded and an interesting high might have been reached. I'm long GBPCHF, but might consider adding other short CHF trades next week. Negative rates, plus the SNB wanting to devaluate their currency is an interesting feature, for potential carry trades that might set up here. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
My trade idea for USDCHFOvervalued Swiss franc? On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps inflation rates at its negative territory levels, which is not good for the economy. The SNB added that it will interfere in the FX market in case things go against the monetary policy. Federal Reserve Policy? The Fed is on its wheel to drive interest rates up by this year as Janet Yellen expects. I believe however that a rate rise this year might be too early, and could cause slow down the U.S. economy with fundamental figures showing hick ups that are blamed to be from bad weather conditions in January, the second quarter's data will suggest whether the blame on weather is valid or not. The first positive indication was the faster than expected US CPI. Even though I don't believe a raise in interest rates might happen this year, the overall trend believes it so we shall follow that or else we will get wiped out if we got stuck on our thoughts. Divergence This divergence in monetary policies suggest a great opportunity for us to profit on the long term by buying the USD and shorting the Swiss franc. Regardless of when the Fed will raise interest rates, it is closer to doing that than the SNB. If the Fed rises interest rates, investors will more likely shift from equity markets to money markets which will boost the USD. Percentage Gains/ Losses In 2014 the USD CHF offered investors an 11.4% return on Investment. If it was held for the whole year. In 2015 the pair fell by 4% until May. This fall could be a retracement for a higher bound. Chart - I personally like to trade price action, on medium term bias. - The green lines suggest major resistance level, that if cleared could take price to test the succeeding levels. - Red lines suggest major support levels. - The trend filter is green and suggesting an uptrend. -Prices tested the 200 moving average and pinned above it, without a daily candle close. This suggests a downside risk. - The 0.95282 level is an area of major resistance, if cleared we could test the 0.97, 0.98, 0.99 and finally the 1.00 round level. This would however take place by Q3 of this year. - Prices also cleared and closed above the 0.38 Fib level. -I believe that the USD have gained strongly over the course of this week, and it should rest before it could pass the first green resistance line. TRADE Target Price: 0.94233 SL: 1.924 TP: I don't set Take profits, as I leave prices to move with the trend, profits are locked in when the upward retracement reaches the 38% fib level.
Long
by hussein.ahmed
EURCHF: Confirmed daily buy signal, potential weekly tradeYou can see the projected targets in the chart. The daily signal got fired today when range expanded strongly out of the mode. I'll place a small market order now, and try to capture a retracement as a scale in. If the weekly signal triggers, we might be in the presence of a very large uptrend. You can follow Nick Coulby's work for more detailed wave counts. He's been following this pair with me for some time. Cheers to Anil Mangal as well, he's been in this trade for some time now, since the correction completed on April the 20th. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2