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Swiss franc soars after SNB surprise hikeThe Swiss franc has posted massive gains today after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.50%. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9653, down a massive 2.91% on the day. It has been a week of central bank drama, which started with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 0.75% rate hike. This was followed today by a Swiss shocker, as the SNB tightened the screws on monetary policy with its first rate increase since 2007, raising rates from -0.75% to -0.25%. The markets had become accustomed to the SNB's ultra-low rate of -0.75%, which had been in place since 2015. Most major central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, are in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, as they attempt to wrestle down surging inflation. After the rate hike, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that the SNB was concerned about rising inflation in Switzerland, which is heading towards 3%. The rate statement reflected Jordan's comments, saying that further hikes could be implemented in order to stabilize inflation. The statement also reiterated that the SNB would be "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary." The SNB carefully monitors the exchange rate and has intervened in the past when it deemed the Swiss franc's value as too high, which is detrimental to Switzerland's export-reliant economy. The Swiss franc has been on a slide, falling 400 points and breaking above parity earlier this week. The SNB may have felt that this was a prudent time to deliver a significant rate hike, even though it would send the Swiss franc sharply higher. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve, which raised rates by 0.75%, to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn't expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. This is a massive rate hike, the largest since 1994. Will it hasten the long sought-after inflation peak? Along with the Fed, we'll have to be patient and wait. USD/CHF has broken through support at 0.9928 and 0.9792. The pair is testing support at 0.9698, with 0.9500 the next support line There is resistance at 1.0084
by OANDA
Dollar Outlook for Week 24 -> DXY, JPY, CHF, GBPLast week I got surprised by strong USD. Not one of the expected predictions came true and therefore no trades have been taken in the $ pairs. Last week news favored a stronger USD. Inflation is still unexpected high despite aggressive rate hikes. It seems a 0.5 hike for the next meeting on Wednesday is already fully priced in. Further hikes in the coming months are likely. On the other hand the markets seem very fragile and therefore an aggressive stance from the FED and other central banks might risk a further slowdown and even more volatility in the markets. Therefore I still believe the strong $ is only temporary. → All the current Outlooks are based on MT weakening of the USD. → Outlook solely based on PA. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade and consider FX correlation. ------------------- Glossary: HTF – Higher Time Frame LTF – Lower Time Frame MT – Medium Term DT – Down Trend UT – Up Trend BO – Break- out PA – Price Action CS – Candle Stick SL – Support Level RL – Resistance Level TC – Trend Channel Color Code: Blue solid line – Actual PA Structure Blue dashed line – Legacy PA Structure Violet dashed line – Area of Sensitivity S/R Levels Orange dotted line – My Alarms
TVC:DXY
by kalganid
Swiss franc rises on higher inflationhe Swiss franc is slightly higher on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.9596, down 0.39% on the day. Those of us who think "staid and steady" when the Swiss franc comes to mind will be forgiven for not recognizing the currency lately. The Swissie took riders on a roller-coaster in the month of May, as USD/CHF rose 300 points and broke above parity for the first time since December 2019. The upswing didn't last, as the pair reversed directions and dropped by some 400 points. The Swiss franc has stabilized over the past week after the May volatility. It is noteworthy that the EUR/CHF is trading at a one-month low. Swiss inflation is moving upwards and hit a 14-year high in May. CPI rose 0.7% MoM, up from 0.4% in April (0.3% exp). On an annualized basis, CPI  climbed 2.9%, up from 2.5% in April (2.6% exp.). Inflation remains much lower than the red-hot numbers we're seeing in the eurozone or the UK, but Switzerland traditionally has enjoyed very low inflation, and higher prices are putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to address rising inflationary pressures. The SNB has maintained an accommodative policy, which includes a benchmark rate of -0.75%, by far the lowest of any major bank. So far, the Bank is not showing any signs of tightening policy by raising rates, although that could change if the Swiss currency continues to appreciate. Recent US data has been firm, with the notable exception of the housing sector. We'll get a look at US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The markets are braced for a slowdown, as the April forecast stands at 325 thousand, after a March gain of 428 thousand. It wasn't so long ago that the NFP release was the highlight of the week, but with inflation, the Ukraine war and the OPEC+ meeting, NFP will be sharing the spotlight. Still, it should be considered a market-mover for the US dollar. There is resistance at 0.9624 and 0.9704 USD/CHF has support at 0.9497 and 0.9417
by OANDA
GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26). Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18). Follow me for more updates on the pair and other assets. Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!
Long
by weirdmoney
EURCHF: Inverse H & S Complete! Price Likely To Climb Further.With the risk off markets that highly affected the EUR against the safehaven CHF a couple of weeks ago, the price plummeted near the parity! At the moment the price seems to be recovering slightly and likely looks to be headed over to the next psychological resistance found at 1.05000 area. The Swiss National Bank is likely handing a helping hand to the EUR here by intervening in the market. On the technical basis, the inverse head and shoulders formation was completed and the price is likely to test the neckline before heading higher. All the complete trade details can be found on the main chart. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on other major currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURCHF on its way to ATL1. Be aware that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) had set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 CHF per EUR for some years to keep Switzerlands economy in place, because we rely on exports. 2. This synthetically set level can be seen in the period from 2012-2013 where the price basically did nothing for weeks and was just kept alive at that rate 3. On 15.01.2015 this synthetic minimum price was abolished and the price dumped instantly to under the equilibrium, even to 0.96 EUR per CHF. Historical moment! 4. Notice the bearish retest in 2018, what a beautiful rejection there at the last support from 2015. 5. Around start of the pandemic in march 2020 we had a bullish retest of support at bullish weekly OB indicated by the "tick" in green. 6. At the moment we broke this support and I am expecting another break and retest of this 3-month support @ 1.0418. 7. Last but not least, there is a big liquidity pool resting around the sell stops at 1.0234 , above and below. Probably will act as a magnet for price action and a big stop hunt happening there. CONCLUSION: --> EUR is at the brink of doom here, holding at the last support in its entire history to the Swiss Franc. --> the narrative behind the weakness of EUR is the non-stop-printing of new money during the pandemic caused by the ECB --> add the relatively stable condition of the swiss economy regarding the rest of europe into the mix, and you have enough reasons to sell your EUR to CHF As a swiss-based trader, wanted to have a look at my personal exchange rate for buying things abroad or taking bigger investments like land and real estate in cheaper european countries. Applying some fundamental knowledge here, but mostly the chart explains itself with its price action. Hope this chart gives some clarification and insight!
Short
by coinnection
5
$EURCHF: Bottomed here...I think we have a decent trade with something between 3:1 and 5.28:1 RR here. I'm long here since the hourly is bottoming, and daily charts hit long term support, while being close to exhausting the last daily down trend signal that was active. Technically, this is a very strong mean reversion possibility and we have the backing of the Swiss National Bank which could stop the decline intervening in the market around here... Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
ridethepig | EURCHF into 1.14The concept of this complete or at least partially supported euro structure In this swing, there are three actors: 1 . the support which is acting as a pivot 2 . the opposing resistance which is being targeted 3 . the breakout trigger which will provide momentum The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels and 1.20 next year. So buyers are standing in deep value levels with the two targets mentioned. The structure underneath is generally of royal blood, buyers put a lot of time into the plumbing of these levels and are not fearful of hiding behind one another - thus the short space between strong and soft support. If this lacks the mobility to break out and is an absolute chop fest then we can make the executive decision to make no move of any sort. If on the other hand, the momentum kicks in as I am expecting, we can move to 1.14 with little pushback over the coming weeks and months. The diagram illustrates the long-term map. Here the flow towards 2018 highs is underway with the European rebound and we are only "partially" into wave 3. This means we can confidently lean on the macro direction as Swiss outflows are set to continue with CHF cooked as a low yielder for the next few years. For those tracking the SNB reserve activity closely, they are going to get a lot more active in Q3 (a lot similar to Q1).
Long
by ridethepig
5
USDCHF bulls aim for 0.9115 confluence after Fed, SNBUSDCHF extends Fed-led rally to the fresh high since May 06 even as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated status-quo during early Thursday. The pair seems to prepare bulls for the bi-annual SNB press conference while heading towards a convergence of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement January-April upside. Given the upbeat RSI conditions, not oversold, the quote may battle the 0.9115 hurdle with a notable strength. However, a daily closing beyond the same becomes necessary to aim for another hurdle, near 0.9080, to the mid-March low of 0.9213. Meanwhile, failures to cross the 0.9115 resistance could trigger a pullback towards the early month top close to 0.9050. Though, any further weakness will be questioned by the 0.9000 psychological magnet and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels since December 21, 2020, around 0.8930-20. In a case wherein the USDCHF prices drop below 0.8920, February lows near 0.8870 and January bottom close to 0.8835 could offer intermediate stops before dragging the pair to the yearly low of 0.8756.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Swiss franc claws up to 90 line on US GDPThe Swiss franc is up for a second straight day. In North American trade, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9000, up 0.24% on the day. The Swiss franc has made strong inroads in recent weeks against a US dollar which continues to struggle. The dollar posted sharp gains in the first quarter, but has reversed directions. Since April 1, USD/CHF is down 4.8% and has surrendered most of the gains accrued in Q1. The Swiss central bank (SNB) does not want to see the Swiss franc continue to appreciate, since a higher-valued Swiss franc makes Swiss exports more expensive. The SNB also prefers to see limited movement from the Swissie, so that price movement remains muted.  The SNB has been actively purchasing US dollars in order to prevent the exchange rate from continuing to rise. However, with the US dollar showing prolonged weakness and the Federal Reserve insisting that it will not tighten policy anytime soon, the SNB may have a tough time trying to prevent the Swissie from appreciating further. The US released a data dump earlier in the day. The results were mixed and the dollar edged lower, as the Swiss franc has clawed back up the symbolic 90-level. US second-estimate GDP came in at 6.4%, confirming the initial read but shy of the forecast of 6.5%. Headline durable goods slowed to 1.0%, down from 1.6%. Core Durable goods surprised with a decline of 1.3%, down from +0.5% and much worse than the consensus of +0.8%. On the employment front, US jobless claims dropped to 406 thousand, down from 444 thousand. In Switzerland, the trade balance fell to CHF3.82 billion, down from CHF5.7 billion and shy of the forecast of CHF4.2 billion. USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9033 and 0.9087. On the downside, there is weak support at 0.8939. Below, there is support at 0.8899
by OANDA
Swissie at 8-month lows, KoF barometer nextThe Swiss franc has started the week quietly. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9398, up 0.08% on the day. The KoF Economic Barometer, a key indicator of business confidence, will be released on Tuesday (7:00 GMT). The KoF slipped below its long-term average of 100 in January, with a reading of 96.5. The indicator rebounded in February, rising to 102.7 and the upswing is expected to continue, with a forecast of 1o4.2 for March. The Swiss franc remains under pressure and climbed to 0.9417 on Friday, its highest level since July 2020. USD/CHF has shot up 3.46% in the month of March and pushed into 94- territory. Despite this sharp decline, the Swiss National Bank stated at last week's policy meeting that the currency remained "highly valued". This reflects the agenda of the central bank to keep the Swiss franc at low levels by purchasing massive amounts of dollars, in order to protect the Swiss economy, which is heavily reliant on exports, as well as combating deflation. The SNB maintained its interest rates at -0.75%, among the lowest in the world. The problem for the SNB is that the world views the Swiss franc as a safe-haven asset, which makes it an attractive holding for investors, particularly in times of crisis or uncertainty. With the SNB keeping low negative rates in place and continuously intervening in forex markets, there is a strong likelihood that the Swiss franc's downturn will continue in the coming weeks, which could mean the currency will put upward pressure on the 95 level. On Wednesday, Credit Suisse Economic Expectations releases its monthly report (8:00 GMT). The index rose to 55.5 in January, up from 43.2 beforehand. Another acceleration in February could give a boost to USD/CHF. USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9463. This is followed by resistance at 0.9538. On the downside, 0.9268 remains relevant. Below, there is support at 0.9148. The pair is currently trading just shy of the 38.2% retracement from the 52-week high, at 0.9402.
by OANDA
After SNB decision, will Swiss franc resume its decline?The Swiss franc is unchanged in Thursday trading. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9353, down 0.02% on the day. There were no surprises from the Swiss National Bank, which held its policy meeting on Wednesday. As expected, the bank maintained its key rate at -0.75%. The bank tweaked its inflation forecast for 2021 to 0.2%, slightly higher than the 0% forecast back in December. Inflation in 2020 was a negligible -0.7%, so the SNB is not feeling under pressure to adjust interest rates in the foreseeable future. The SNB is projecting that GDP will expand between 2.5% and 3.0% for 2021, even with an expected decline in GDP in the first quarter. This would mean a return to pre-Covid economic activity in the second half of 2021. Switzerland suffered a decline of 3.0% in growth in 2020 due to the impact of Covid-19, but the export-reliant economy is expected to rebound as the global economy recovers from the economic meltdown caused by Covid. The Swiss franc has fallen 6.0% in 2021, with half of that slide coming in the month of March. Despite this tumble, the SNB said at its policy meeting that the currency was "highly valued". This reflects the agenda of the central bank to keep the Swiss franc at low levels by purchasing massive amounts of dollars, in order to protect the Swiss economy, which is heavily reliant on exports, as well as combating deflation. The Swiss franc has also depreciated against the euro, dropping to a 20-month low recently. With the SNB keeping low negative rates in place and continuously intervening in forex markets, it's reasonable to assume that the Swiss franc could continue to lose ground. With the US economy headed in the right direction, investor risk appetite should improve, which is another reason to be bearish on the Swiss franc in the coming months. USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9381. This line came under pressure earlier in March. This is followed by resistance at 0.9443. 0.9231 has been a strong support level since mid-March. Below, there is support at 0.9169.
by OANDA
2
Positive risk tone sees JPY and CHF lead to the downsideHeading into today’s European trading session, the risk tone is leaning risk on with Asia-Pacific indices mostly positive, measures of volatility subdued and safe havens pressured. In the FX complex, the positive risk tone sees JPY sit at the bottom of the F majors, followed closely by CHF with USDJPY set to test the 109.00 handle to the upside, while NZDJPY reclaimed the 76.00 handle. Indeed, the antipodeans are currently leading the FX majors to the upside; although it’s AUD sitting in pole position, but NZD a close second. All in all, however, it’s worth noting that most currency pairs have remained contained by recent ranges, with no significant developments or catalysts observed throughout the Asia-Pacific session. Looking to the sessions ahead, expect central banks to once again be a key theme for the day. The SNB will announce their latest policy decision early in the European session, while central bank speakers from numerous central banks are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
by thunderpips
3
What to expect from the SNB – Bank of AmericaBank of America discussed its expectations for tomorrow’s SNB meeting in a recent note to clients. Bank of America noted: We expected the SNB to keep its policy on hold, ie, the deposit rate at -75bp paired with discretionary FX interventions. Unlike the ECB, where the reaction function has become more opaque again, we are relatively confident that we have understood the SNB’s: shielding the economy from fast exchange rate appreciation. In this context, changes to policy instruments are unlikely any time soon. FX interventions are more powerful than rate cuts, and with tiering designed to fit the Swiss banking sector, “reversal rate” considerations don’t bite. Inflation should return to positive territory over coming months, but prove insufficiently dynamic to prompt a policy rethink. We expect the SNB to be way down the list of central banks that will normalize policy. As this gap widens, the flow of fund pressures from the Swiss financial account will also rise.
by thunderpips
4
ridethepig | CHF for the Yearly Close📌 CHF for the Yearly Close An excellent swing move, which is extraordinarily difficult to spot. You should note that what has played out has been completely carefully controlled and exclusively on the FED side. Whereas SNB have been seeking salvation against the inflows, the USD cycle is playing out by default and monetary error more than anything else. You cannot solve a monetary issue with private debt by issuing more private debt. As we know, the flows which have dealt considerable damage to buyers can constitute a good criteria for the evaluation of the next pivot level in play at 0.870x. There is no way to avoid the test, buyers need to be careful not to get hemmed in as a breach will threaten a -10% sweep which is what I am eyeballing for 2021. Switzerland will act as a suitable haven; SNB will threaten to gain time but only making the breakthrough harder in my opinion. Not the most technical of charts...shows the levels we need to exploit and when broken, advance the units and swing the bat. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 03.12.2020Another interesting play where buyers can win the flow. So, the idea to outguess a temporary floor in USDCHF is correct as we are approach very 'rich' levels for sellers. If buyers are going to have a late breakfast 0.890x is the level to load. Another few pips down and it would be difficult to defend because of the horizontal support. For those that remember the previous attempt we are tracking exactly the same attack. As we all know, the philosophy of a minor swing, is only for the evaluation of any possible situation with the major swing involved. And for this particularly we have the next leg higher in dollar cooking with some devaluation from SNB to put the icing on the cake: An interesting move, EURCHF ⬆️ and USDCHF ⬆️ up a lot more... The flow is worth considering, it is not a pitless market, very often we can close our eye to some dollar devaluation but we sellers are out of energy and we need to smooth things over. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26📌 ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26 This is one of the classic simultaneous 'worm in the apple' plays. It is an instructive illustration of the link between bids and offers in the short-term and diversionary support on the lows. The dependence of buyers position appears clearly on USD strength. The correct play here is to bid the 0.907x lows. A fresh train of thought should unlock a test of 0.912x and 0.914x. And sellers will then have to overcome their problems once more. According to the 'dollar', we are all the way at the bottom of the range for Thanksgiving and this low must be blockaded: It is with reluctance and after great thought that I decided on this diversion out on the lows. It seems somewhat daring, because conditions do not seem to be quite safe in the US. One of my main principles states that a fading attack is only correct when we see that others are willing to play too, as with Europe this morning on the open.... For the flows, entry 0.907x with targets clearly defined above at 0.912x and 0.914x while invalidation below 0.905x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.09.16A nice ST reversal swing setup forming here that will be easy to defend for sellers. Naturally here in the middle of the range is surrounded in chop, but there is still hope. The technical range in USD is clearly defined after the swing down. We have strong resistance at 0.92 which is a cheap sell on rallies, with 0.90 acting as soft support and another test would be fatal in opening up the downside. Unless there is a huge surprise today with Fed we can move up to squeeze the dollar bears in the short-term and trigger enough energy for the next impulsive swing down in DXY. 📌 See the macro USD annotation. Here we are dealing with an admittedly somewhat unusual example of artificial dollar devaluation as the WH / FED (same thing nowadays) are faced with a choice between a weaker currency and a weaker stock market. The ebb and flow lower in DXY will not be without pullbacks, know when to attack accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
USDCHF Macro outlook 2020.09.19USDCHF has been trading in a range between 0.9200 and 0.9000 since late July. when it retests the top of its range at 0.9200. Elsewhere, they are confident the pair will eventually break through 0.9000. The most important even of the day is the Fed’s report today. It definitely will add fresh volatility to the market. in particular, await the Fed to deliver the dovish statement with economic guidelines up to 2023. The central bank may leave rates at low levels during this period. Even though the recent US data comes better than expected, Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell should stay uncertain and pessimistic over the recovery. As a result, the US dollar may plummet amid the Fed’s pressure as well as USD/CHF. Let’s look at the 4-hour USD/CHF chart. If the pair test the Resistance of 0.91xx, it may fall deeper to the low of September 1 at 0.9010. In the opposite scenario, if the price manages to cross the high of September 10 at 0.917x-0.918xx , the way towards the next resistance of 0.92xx will be clear. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by Ridethemacro