A little more pain ahead for SemisLooking for a fill of the gap at 232 which coincides with the 2.0 extension of this 5-wave move down. Head & Shoulders pattern with negative MACD divergence.
SMH
Closed: SMH April 14th 20/290 Short Strangle... for a 4.29 credit.
Comments: Received a 5.90 credit for putting this on 6 days ago. (See Post Below). Taking 1.61 ($161) of profit here -- 27% of max with 35 days to go.
Stan Weinstein 4 stages on $TSM weeklyStan Weinstein 4 stages. on $TSM
- Stage 1 - Accumulation
- Stage 2 - Uptrend
- Stage 3 = Distribution
- Stage 4 - Downtrend - I am waiting !
Opening: SMH April 14th 210/290 Short Strangle... for a 5.90 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV (96/48.5). Selling the 15 delta-ish strikes on both sides; 5.90 credit on buying power effect of 25.37 (on margin); 23.3% ROC at max; 11.6% at 50% max.
$AMD Semis need to lead for bullsThe bull case is still in play as AMD although down considerably from 165 high , is still holding strong support at 100 and currently trading above its 200MA
AMD has been building next level of support at 113 with a recent thrust to 124, which makes sense considering the 200MA is a VERY important level for the bulls and bears alike.
So long as AMD holds 100 , and continues to find buyers 113 zone, my bias is for a breakout of this downward channel to the upside.
A break below and there will be bigger issues , i.e. I'd imagine this will only happen if the market is down considerably from a catalyst event (although inflation, rates, war, supply chain issues, all have yet to cause a mass liquidation so I'm not sure what will... Nuclear War ? I pray not )
I do know for sure that any melt up that does occur, I would be looking at AMD / NVDA / SMH / MU to be strong movers to the upside.
Let's see ! I'm long April calls and will add so long as we hold 100
One ETF where you can short both EVs and Semis $IDRVOne ETF where you can short both EV and Semi $IDRV
- Overcrowded
- Trigger below $43 and waiting for a good set up formation
2/27/22 ONON Semiconductor Corporation ( NASDAQ:ON )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: 27.464B
Current Price: $63.50
Breakout price: $65.35
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $60.30-$55.40
Price Target: $72.00-$73.40(1st)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-54d
Contract of Interest: $ON 4/14/22 65c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.05/contract
SOXL forming a new range?Since we're now below the 200 MA and re-confirmed the prior resistance levels we are looking to create a new range.
The Market is full of fear right now, Rate hikes, emergency FED meetings, fears of a war in Ukraine, Long term fears of stagflation, or recession.
When you see the solid companies in this sector (NVDA, AMD) getting hit you know people are selling everything.
I just put some lines on the chart of prior support level. It's around 28 +- That would be a 30% drop.
Since this is a 3x ETF that would be an approx. 10% drop in the PHX or SMH. According to Tom Lee of fundstrat, a 1% raise in interest rates is usually accompanied by a 10% drop in Equities. We've already had a 10% SPY correction, so now the market is starting to price in some more interest rate raises.
Semiconductors at long-term supportWhen looking at a weekly chart, it is easier to see if an asset is in a bullish or bearish trend.
Taking a look a the SOXX, we see we are at a potential place for a bounce.
I chose the 52 exponential-moving average because there are 52 weeks in a year, and it has worked very well in the past.
A close on a weekly basis below this level is the signal to get out. If we can hold though, it would be a strong bull case for a bottom.
$UCTT go long, potential outperformer in semi equipment spaceUCTT has begun to outperform the overall semiconductor industry represented by the etf SMH. The trend has clearly been broken on the weekly chart.
There has been a good amount of volume in this week so far, creating that very bullish weekly candle. Hoping we finish strong this week. Looking to create a position if it shows continuation.
EV/EBITDA ratios for the leaders in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment; as you can see UCTT has the best one since any EV/EBITDA below 10 is considered healthy.
8.2577 UCTT
16.5404 AMAT
19.0102 LRCX
18.1225 KLAC
SMH - Hard Short(Opinion Only)
Could be direct move or take a few days, not advice. Just my interpretation of the chart.
QQQ COULD be as easy as an ABC DOWN WAVE 2 At today close i went long calls in QQQ and picked calls in nvda 60% position for april . I have stated very clear overhead res and hit targets min But based on a dsi in qqq CANT GO SHORT until we see now the alt target next is 420 but i can see easy 429/440 if this is a wave 2 of 3 within wave 5 blowoff I do NOT now have enough bullish sentiment to call this a top . I AM TRACKING 5 FRACTALS they all say up . So I WILL NOT LOOK TO SHORT till we get time and price . best of trades WAVETIMER
SMH/SPYSMH has handedly outperformed the SPY since 2018 but has stalled recently
If SMH cannot continue to outperform SPY in 2022 it will be ugly for tech/growth
SMH/SPYSemiconductors have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since 2015
Semiconductors are today's transports
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
MU - Bearish option flow into earningsBearish option flow into earnings.
On Friday, December 17, 2021 there was some notable buying of 4,882 contracts of the 12/23 $77.00 put
The fib retrace level for 50% would be the $77 area.
SOXL trend past 2 yearstrends SOXL/semis have displayed last 2 years.
Just a trend analysis study.
Observation: SOXL is more wilder than TQQQ for sure, though both are leveraged 3X, and is harder to trade vs TQQQ
AMD Bull Scenario
AMD triggers Bull to Mark Up into our Bull Targets
AMD finds support at our Bear Trigger to Mark Up into our Bull Trigger
Bear Scenario
AMD triggers Bear into our Bear Targets
AMD finds Resistance at our Bull Trigger and Marks Down into our Bear Targets
Neutral
Price action stays within our Trigger levels (inventory rebalance)
Side Note
Each level has potential to reverse not all targets may be met.
NVDA TRIGGER LEVELSBull Scenario
NVDA triggers Bull to Mark Up into our Bull Targets
NVDA finds support at our Bear Trigger to Mark Up into our Bull Trigger
Bear Scenario
NVDA triggers Bear into our Bear Targets
NVDA finds Resistance at our Bull Trigger and Marks Down into our Bear Targets
Neutral
Price action stays within our Trigger levels (inventory rebalance)
Side Note
Each level has potential to reverse not all targets may be met.
QQQ trendRecent Choppy market has left QQQ's and Semis bruised but not badly injured yet.
Here's my strategy to monitor if things normalize.
AMDAMD looks like it's ready to continue it's momentum alongside NVDA towards 180$. This one just about a year ago or so was around 50$ .. Crazy growth!
MUMicron is a long based off the technical breakout on the weekly timeframe.
Targets lower 80 area and above there possibly 100.
Chips have been running like crazy, does it continue?
