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MEDIUM TERM(XAUXAG): WAVE COUNT|BULLISH TARGETS+STRUCTURAL [TA]Commodity and Fixed Income Series : Part 1 Commodities ( Ratios+the most popular and widely traded Commodities ) The Essential note s from this chart are the following( Indicator analysis included in the comments ): {4.5 minute read} To begin with the easiest part of the chart. The supports were identified on the quarterly chart which will be linked in the comments. There are 3 main support levels :1. ~80(RED LINE) 2. ~70-66(BLUE LINE) 3. ~58-60(GREEN LINE) Somewhat more difficult part of the chart are the bullish targets . There are 2 main targets and 1 psychologica l. The 2 main targets were derived based on fibonacci extensions from the quarterly chart #1 ~94, #2 ~110 ; and the obvious psychological target is circa: 100 . Q: What is the method used to label the Wave count? -Following the ABC correction(2008-2011), gold has clearly outperformed silver. This is partially because of the new production methods that were introduced after 2012( more cost-effective extraction of silver as a byproduct while mining for other metals). In effect, this boosted the supply of silver relatively to gold; positively affecting the gold-to-silver ratio . Hence, the W-X-Y-X-Z Wave count fits the best into the current chart structure. Q: Bullish on silver? - Not yet . As it can be observed from the chart, prior to the ABC correction(2008-2011) ; there was a boom in the demand for gold as the primary metal of value used as a protection against inflation . This pattern should occur during the next recession, yielding a potential target for the ratio of around ~110. Other worthy notes: 2020 Election will have an impact on practically every market; Commodities are no exception . Nevertheless, in the medium term , I am relatively more bullish on silver in comparison to gold . This is supported by continuously downtrending volume as we progress through the bullish channel(pitchfork) . The ABC orange labelled correction is obviously a far fetched idea, since we do not know the timing nor the absolute top for the ratio yet. It's included just for the sake of general market principles. P.S. I do realize the chart is quite hard to be understood, mostly because it is labelled to the smallest and extreme detail. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comment s. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! Step_Ahead_oftheMarket- {Make sure to check out my previous series on US(SPX) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} This chart is a continuation to one of my most popular charts from last week: Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
OANDA:XAUXAGShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
H4 LONG TRADE ON SILVER - TREND is your FRIENDQuick summary of how i usually view the markets. In terms of market movement, i tend to view them as either Ranging or Trending market environments. - Trending environment means that price has a general direction it is heading based on High Time Frames market structures. BULLISH Market structure refers to higher highs and higher lows, while BEARISH Market structure refers to lower highs and lower lows. - Ranging environment means that price usually just oscillates within the range with no clear direction. This is also refer to chopping markets, making it harder to trade since there is no clear trend. Hence, usually i drew up a range and take trades around the range low / high and trade it to the other side. EG Long range low, targeting range high. For spotting of trade opportunities, i look to take trades near High Time Frame structure. By refining my entry, stop loss and target based on Low Time Frame structure, i am able to maximize my Risk:Reward ratio of the trade setup by aligning with the Macro trend. Setup type: H4 Significant Flag Levels of confluence: 1) Weekly Range Low 2) H4 Demand zone proven itself previously when price dipped into it and rallied to make another higher high (Confirmation of demand)
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by FX20
Silver stackers should see a bounce shortlyThanks for viewing everyone. This is typical TA, it might go up or it might go down (and I told you so in either case). But stick around anyway. After silver's top of almost $50 in 2011 it has made a clearly identifiable ABC formation correction of the intervening 8 years. If you squint just right, you can see the 5 wave wave (C) down too (complete with shallow wave 4 triangle and deep wave 2 correction. Wave 4 does not cross-over any of wave 1 price action (orange box - that also denotes the steepest price change - normally seen in wave 3). Recently there is a bottom forming after a quick rise from $13.700 to over $21 and a slow and steady price drop back to the swing low (low of 13.635 in December 2015). What I tentatively expect is a bounce from that level to around $22 (hopefully higher - very possibly lower). Retrospective fibonacci targets (to gauge if the correction is complete) are for wave (C) to equal wave (A) at ($13.768) and a 1.618 extension of wave 1 (at $17.032). Both have been met or exceeded. In my view this is a buy zone and I will be buying each month that the price is below $17. A word of caution; looking back a little ways into the price history (not displayed) pre-1980 to today. Silver rose from a sub-$2 base to exceed $50 in 1980. It then completed an ABC correction down to mid $4 range. This was followed by a weak wave C bounce and then the price slowly sunk lower to bottom at $3.50 in 1992 (10 years later). So, while the count holds up the price still slipped slightly lower in $ terms (more in % terms) before trying to set a new higher high. So, what? So, I am prepared for a potentially very long accumulation phase (last one 20 years) and also a potential price subsidence to below $10 (which will not change my plan). Remember everyone, no weak hands okay. Silver has been seeing increasing industrial demand but has been dropping investment demand. Why silver? Why not buy on an up-trending asset? 1. Silver is an asset with zero counter-party risk, and is my choice as a hedge against a (more plausible every day) debt crisis, 2. charts never repeat exactly, it could bounce strongly - but I don't expect it to set up for a new bull-run just yet, 3. The gold to silver ratio is indicative of silver being undervalued on a relative basis (hopefully when the GSR normalises to below 40 I will trade silver for gold - silver is my vehicle to acquire more gold, 4. If there is a currency / inflationary crisis, there will be little warning and I want to be in at the bottom for the next move up, 5. Silver is money, 6. COT commitment of traders reports show commercial traders reducing short positions significantly, 7. Commercial banks have created the worlds largest ever silver stockpiles - removing supply from the market. Asset allocation: 50% fixed income instruments, 30% low PE ratio (low debt, high return, recession resistant) stocks, 5% diversified commodity ETF (at a 30 year low), 7.5% silver, 2.5% gold, and 5% crypto. While I am here, I would like to plug bullionstar dot com in Singapore. They have low premiums, cheap vault storage of 0.59%pa (silver - lower for gold). E.g. A Johnson Matthey 100oz silver bar (as at right now- prices change per minute) is USD1545.05 for a low volume purchase on 1-9 bars (cheaper than one US based site I just checked at USD1575) and zero sales tax on bullion. I will likely choose their 1kg zero spread bar (at low volumes it has a spread but it is lower than normal) and possibly small nibbles from their bullion savings program BSP where I can buy as little as 1g at a time. I just thought I would pass than on because it took me a long time and searching multiple countries to find silver at a reasonable price.
TVC:SILVERLong
by flyinkiwi10
Silver Elliott Wave View: Impulse Move Favoring More UpsideSilver rally from May 28, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott wave structure favoring more upside to take place. The near-term pullback to $14.87 low ended wave ((ii)). Up from there, the metal made a strong rally to the upside and ended wave ((iii)) at $16.58 high. The internals of that rally unfolded in lesser degree 5 waves structure where wave (i) ended at $15.31 high. Wave (ii) pullback ended at $15.03 low, wave (iii) ended at $16.46 high. Then pullback to $16.22 low ended wave (iv) and a rally to $16.58 high ended wave (v). Down from there, the 3 swings pullback to $16.04 low ended wave ((iv)). While above there, wave ((v)) remain in progress looking to extend higher 1 more time before wave 3 ends & pullback in wave 4 takes place in 3, 7 or 11 swings. The minimum extension area for wave ((v)) of 3 i.e inverse 1.236%-1.618% extension area comes at $16.72-$16.93. From where the metal can potentially see a pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before more upside can be seen. We don’t like selling the stock & expect intraday buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings within wave 4 pullback at a later stage. As far as a pivot from $14.88 low stays intact.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
LONG CDE - Company just broke out of a 8 year down trendCDE is a great buy here as the stock has broken out of a 8 year down trend starting in 2011. CDE has lagged other silver miners slightly during these recent silver breakout (). They are optimizing recovery and costs at current claims and have a great deal of exploration and potential for new claims in the works. They have suffered from aggressive short selling as of late - see: fintel.io , but this should just fuel a spike in the stock as Silver moves to its next resistance point of $17.30. Technically resistance at $5.20, then $5.75.
NYSE:CDELong
by chandldj
1
THE WHITE METAL WILL SKY-ROCKET LIKE NO OTHER IN THE LONG TERMThe bull run in the precious metals complex which officially ended in Oct 2011 dragged the prices of the white metal to up to 50USD per ounce. That was a staggering 393% growth which took the prices from 10USD to 50USD however from there we have seen more than 70% correction in silver prices. The interesting part is even when gold is able to break it's 6 years long term resistance which stands at $1400, the Silver chart still looking dead and the gold-silver ratio is currently trading at 93 which is the highest in 30 years, so the question is what is really happening with silver? 1-We have already informed you that silver is known as a proxy for gold. Silver is known to be much more volatile than gold that's why it often is seen that when gold becomes expensive more and more investors tend to invest in silver in order to gain significant profit due to its high volatile nature however Recent report suggests that many investors are now looking towards alternative currencies such as bitcoin. 2-when you try to look at the 100-year historical chart of Gold vs silver prices you will be able to find two major bulls runs within the precious metal sector. The first one happened in 1971 which is known as a Nixon shock. The Nixon shock was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon in 1971, in response to increasing inflation, Nixon Shock is a phrase used to describe the aftereffect of a set of economic policies touted by former President Richard Nixon in 1971. Most notably, the policies eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates that went into effect after World War II. From 1971 to 1973 The gold prices surged in a significant manner(36USD per ounce to 130USD per ounce) however silver underperformed gold within the years and rose only from 1.40USD per ounce to 2.01USD per ounce, It took almost 2 years for silver to outperform gold when new money flooded into the silver market. After that Silver prices rose from 1.40USD to 36USD which was an astonishing growth compared to the yellow metal. Second major bull run occurred after housing market crisis on 2007, It took few years for silver to outperform gold as we have witnessed in 1971 however the only difference this time was that outperformance of silver was significantly higher compared to 1971. Please note-We have not mentioned Jp morgan manipulation in the silver market as that would imply writing a book in itself Ending this article with a quote-“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,”
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
1
XAGUSD (SILVER) SETS TO MAKE A NEW HIGH IN WAVE (C) OR (3)The XAGUSD (SILVER) daily chart shows that the rally from 13.88 low is a classic five-wave impulse. According to Elliot wave principle, a three-wave corrective pattern follows every impulse move and the bearish move after the completion of the impulse in Silver exhibits this characteristic. . The corrective wave unfolded as a double three combination structure with an expanded flat in wave A, a double zigzag in wave B and wave C unfolded as a simple zigzag pattern. . The corrective pattern also retraced about 50-61.8 of the impulse wave and reversing from a key support zone. . If this wave count is correct, Silver is expected to make a bullish impulsive move above the previous high at "$16.18" in wave (C) or (3). . Thanks for reading!
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Veejahbee
7.5yr RSI trendline observations (monthly)As illustrated via the solid blue RSI trendline, monthly futures have been accumulating pressure for about 7.5yrs. In our view, a monthly close above $16.15 would result in large capital inflows not seen since 2003. Risk associated with entering at present levels may be partially mitigated with a timely exit if weekly values close below $14.75. From a purely geopolitical perspective (gold/silver ratio, price history and mining supply conditions aside), silver securities offer credible hedge value.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by offsetfund2
Silver in an upward channel on the weekly chart?Things could get interesting for silver - it started an upward channel in September 2018, and is still trading inside the channel. If it can stay within this channel, we could potentially see a major break-out and re-test of this long-term triangle in just a few weeks, after which some long-term growth should be in the cards for this precious metal. It is difficult to see serious downside with all the loose monetary policy around and having been through a long-term correction. Interesting to follow! :)
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by RvdH
SILVER - BUYSilver is a very important commodity, in fact it is even more useful that Gold. As only about 10% of produced Gold is used in various manufacturing, rest 90% goes for jewelry and just as safe haven, where Silver's 50% goes for manufacturing as an example your touch-screens, solar energy and medical sectors... But I'm not here to predict future of humanity :) Key things to note before analysis: - Top countries producing silver are Mexico, China, Peru, Russia, Australia, etc. Take into account their relationships with US, tariffs, their currencies vs USD. AUD/USD for instance, started to rebound already and has a huge way up to go. USD even if strong (as always) may strengthen a bit more, but has to go for correction anytime very soon. - Commodity market, for ex. Gold have shown reversal. Now Gold is a "Buy on dips" for majority and by far not many want to trade against its Bullish trend. - Assuming the average production price globally is $11.74 price still can go down, despite already some smaller producers are selling for a cheaper price (as their production cost is around $15). That is ok(ish) because the demand has lowered during last 2 years. But, India (which is major buyer) has increased its demand this year. - Demand will keep rising for Silver, but producers will definitely not want to increase production. For example Jewelry demand has already risen. "Why would I buy expensive gold jewelry during these crisis times. I want to save. Also silver is useful for health, it kills one-cell bacteria..." ;) - If commodity currencies rise, commodities prices will rise. Duh?! Ok, now the chart: Please pay attention to corrections, how they are broken and movements inside the channels. I have marked with red arrows price action which is less likely to happen and blue arrows show most likely to happen. So, I am expecting the price to test $16 latest by Feb 2019 and reach around $20.30 by April. The buy zone is reached for me and will SL at around key levels. If $13.58 is broken, I will look to start adding more at around $12 So this is a longer term trade. Please comment, share and like.
TVC:SILVERLong
by BerdRadar