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XAUUSD Accumulation almost over. Strong rally expected to $3000.XAUUSD (Gold) is having the market worried lately as it hasn't made a new High since October 30. Instead it has been consolidating since the November 14 Low and even broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last week. This is far from alarming though, as the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 06 2023 bottom and in fact the current level presents a strong long-term buy opportunity as a Higher Low formation of the pattern. As you can see, each of the 3 Bullish Legs of the Channel Up have rallied by around +20% but first they consolidated after first breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 1 month. Even the RSI sequences between their fractals are identical. As a result, we believe that Gold may start the new Bullish Leg (4th) as early as late this week or next one and rally by at least +18.65% (rise of Bullish Leg 1), targeting $3000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
XAUUSD - what will happen before the Holiday season?Here is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for before the Holiday season starts. Let’s take a step back and take a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we are attaching the long-term overview on the pair. We are still following the sell bias we have published. XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2625 with lower volume than usual. Scenario 1: SELLS from 2620 That would confirm our pullback to the upside and breaking below 2620 would give us an opportunity to drop back down to 2604 or 2600 flat. Next we would be targeting a very important KL (Key Level) 2590. Scenario 2: BUYS from 2638 We broke above 2638 and are trading above it. We should see more upside potentially reaching new highs at around 2666 which was also an important KL (Key Level) before. Personal opinion: The direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. A safe sell trade could be taken at 2620 or a safe buy at the breaks of 2638. Be patient and stay tuned for updates on this pair. For now we are sticking to the sell bias from the long-term overview. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD breaking below 2620 would confirm sells down to 2604 - 2600. - XAUUSD breaking above 2638 would confirm further buys up to 2666. - Volume is lower as the business year is coming to an end and Holiday season is about to start. Thank you everyone for your amazing support lately. We will continue to provide value to you. Happy Holidays! Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FxPocket
1
BITCOIN Are you scared enough? Or need to see more pain?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) touched its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since October 11) and is rebounding. The first presence of short-term buyers was actually felt on Friday, when the price came close to the MA50 again and rebounded aggressively. This is a natural technical reaction during such aggressive uptrends. The key Support level during BTC Bull Cycles however is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been supporting since March 2023 and was successfully tested (and held) twice on August 05 and September 06, the last of which was technically the start of the current Bullish Leg. ** The Fibonacci Channel Up ** Bullish Legs are technically part of Channels and this time is no different as Bitcoin has been trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up since the very bottom of the last Bear Cycle in November 21 2021. As you can see, we have classified the price action on this pattern in Phases, each of whom trades within one range upwards, which is why the Fibonacci Channel succeeds at accurately displaying BTC's current logarithmic rise during this Cycle. ** The Phases and the high symmetry ** Phase 1 (blue Channel) traded within the Fib 0.0 - 1.0 range, Phase 2 (green Channel) within the Fib 0.5 - 1.5 range and we expect a 3rd one, Phase 3 (red Channel) to trade within the Fib 1.0 - 2.0 range. As you may assume, there is high symmetry between sequences, Legs and pull-backs within this pattern and the one that stands out is that rallies so far tend to record +100% rises. More specifically, both the April 14 2023 and January 11 2024 Highs of +100% rallies, then pulled back towards the 0.382 Fib retracement level, the first didn't hit it, the second almost did. ** Will we test the 1D MA100? ** But that is the rally that displays the most similarities with the current one and after hitting its 1D MA50, it broke even lower and only found Support and bounced on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). You can see even how identical their 1D RSI sequences are, which are Channel Down patterns that started showing a bearish divergence much earlier than the top. Right now the RSI is holding the 45.00 neutral level, but the January 2024 and the 2023 fractals turned into a buy on the key 36.00 level, which is bearish territory. Even though Bull Cycles tend to get more and more aggressive as we approach the end of the Cycle and ignore previous Support levels, the 1D MA100 is currently at $79250 and rising, indicating that it can 'meet' the price on lower levels than currently, assuming how quickly the RSI also hits 36.00 (any of the two conditions hits first, the cyclical buy signal can be valid). ** The remainder of the Bull Cycle ** Beyond that, we expect the next High, as we've already entered Phase 3, to be on the -0.5 horizontal Fibonacci extension (as March 13 2024 was) and on the 2.0 Channel Fibonacci ext at a price of $150000, which is the next technical extension of the Channel. After that, you can see that both Phase 1 and 2 started multi-month Accumulation phases with a potential maximum correction to the 0.382 Fib again and as Phase 3 concludes (and possibly the whole Bull Cycle), we may see another +100% rally and a possible Top at $200000. So for the current situation the key question is as mentioned on the title: 'Are you scared enough?' now the 1D MA50 has been tested? Because we may very well drop as low as the 1D MA100 before the Fear & Greed Index turns market sentiment to 'Fear' again and makes the majority misjudge the market activity as they always have. What do you think will happen next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
2
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market OUTLOOKOANDA:XAUUSD made a sharp drop mid-week to the support level of 2585 before recovering on Friday. This rebound was largely influenced by Jerome Powell's press conference, which sparked concerns about potential Federal Reserve monetary tightening, while a strengthening TVC:DXY further pressured gold prices. The market appears to be entering a consolidation phase ahead of upcoming holidays, likely maintaining stability as it seeks direction through the New Year. Trading may remain range-bound between 2600-2650. On the weekly timeframe, the market closed with a bearish candle following a pin bar formation. The daily timeframe shows an emerging triangle pattern with lower highs and higher lows, indicating decreasing volatility. Given these conditions, I expect sideways movement rather than a trending market next week. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lingrid
11
NAS100USD Will Go Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 21,471.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 20,314.7 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
BITCOIN Will Go Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN. Time Frame: 17h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 95,774. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 103,155 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
USDCAD Will Move Higher! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for USDCAD. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.437. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.445 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GBPJPY Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for GBPJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 196.848. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 199.032. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD--> Just one step away from $2700Hello everyone, Ben here! Last week, we witnessed a significant drop in gold prices, with the precious metal hitting a low of $2,583 at one point. Currently, gold is trading around $2,623, maintaining a stable position this week. The rebound in gold prices at the end of last week was supported by the weakening USD and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. This was driven by the latest economic data, which revealed that U.S. inflation is slowing down, easing the pressure on gold prices. Personally, I, Ben, strongly believe that the upward trend for gold will gain more certainty in the coming period. However, gold must break through the current resistance levels to further expand its growth potential. On the other hand, if the price falls below the $2,620 support level, it could drop further to the dynamic support at $2,600. From there, we might expect the upward trend to resume, with potential targets at $2,650 and $2,700 in the foreseeable future. Stay sharp and trade wisely! Yours truly, Bentradegold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
2
Bullish tendency is broken 101-102K for sellingMorning folks, So, BTC was not able to stay above predefined support area and drop right back to the daily 92-95K level. It means that existing bullish context on daily chart is done. In general, this is reasonable - we're going to the Xmas Holidays and inauguration. There are a lot of uncertainty with coming D. Trump policy. Especially when JPowell said that the Fed doesn't intend to own any BTC... so inner conflict is ready. So, retracement might be deeper in nearest month. Since BTC is overextended down a bit, the first thing we expect upside technical bounce, somewhere to 101-102K area. Then, if we're correct in our analysis, downside reversal should happen with potential H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Lingrid | EURUSD Capitalizing on TREND ContinuationFX:EURUSD has pulled back after a strong move down, testing the resistance and downward trendline around 1.04500. Overall, the price action is clearly bearish, making lower lows. However, it recently formed equal lows at a previous support level, which could indicate that the price might struggle to make new lows at this levels. We may see the price create a triangle pattern just above the support before continuing bearish movement. Given that the weekly candle is bearish, it makes sense to expect the price to continue moving lower below the previous month low at 1.03315. My goal is support zone around 1.03450 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
4
USDJPY → Price Struggles at Resistance, Eyes a PullbackHello, my wonderful friends of Ben! Recently, USDJPY has been struggling to maintain its peak around the 154.00 USD level. The bullish momentum of USDJPY has been hindered by several factors, including the ongoing Fed interest rate meeting. Fundamentally, today is a critical day for the market. At 19:00 GMT, the Fed’s interest rate meeting, with a 93% probability of a 0.25% rate cut decision, will take place. This will make the dollar less attractive. If the dollar starts to adjust downward, it will affect the corresponding currency pairs. However, I do not rule out the possibility that, amidst high volatility, the price could form a retest of the resistance level and a false breakout. Personally, Ben expects the price to consolidate below the resistance area around 155.00, with corrective pressure against the trend dominating in the near future. The current support level is around 152.01. If this level is breached, it could lead USDJPY to a deeper decline, potentially reaching 149.37. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
3
Lingrid | BITCOIN End-of-Year Market CORRECTION PhaseThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target level. BINANCE:BTCUSDT has dropped below the key level of 100,000, and the market is now moving sideways below this point. We might see some shakeouts in the market. It's possible that the sideways trend could continue until the middle of January next year. Currently, the price is slowly approaching the support level at 90,000, where it has bounced back several times before. I think the market may dip below this level to take liquidity before rising to higher levels. I expect a rebound from the support zone between 85,000 and 88,000. My goal is resistance zoen around 105,900 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
1
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3