Alikze »» FTM | Wave 3 or C super cycle scenario - 2D🔍 Technical analysis: Wave 3 or C super cycle scenario - 2D
- In the analysis presented in the previous post in the weekly time frame, it was mentioned: it is suspicious of a head and shoulders pattern.
- So far, according to the previous analysis, the first target (supply zone) has been touched and it is currently above the target zone.
- In the analysis presented in the 4-hour time frame, it had a zigzag pattern, which is in wave one of three.
- In the daily time frame, it is located in an ascending channel, the previous corrective wave was able to form a reversal pattern in the range of 0.23 fibo.
- Therefore, I expect that it will face demand in the Buyer Zone and continue its growth with the failure of the middle of the channel up to the ceiling of the ascending channel.
In addition, after breaking the ascending channel, it will have the ability to reach the red box area (supply area).
So this bullish wave is wave 3 or big C, which will have the ability to grow up to the indicated ranges.
💎 Alternative scenario: If the Buyer Zone is broken and stabilizes below it, it can touch the 0.23 Fibo range again.
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OKX:FTMUSDT
Signals
Alikze »» SEI | Wave 2 out of 3 bullish scenario - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Wave 2 out of 3 bullish scenario - 1D
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the daily time frame.
- In the previous post, it was mentioned that there will be a modification to the green box, which was met with demand after the collision between the bottom of the channel and the blue box.
💎 Therefore, according to the momentum and pullback to the broken swing, it can crown the supply area of the targets specified on the chart with a break.
💎 Currently, according to the structure and behavior, it is in wave 1 of 3.
💹 Support LVL: 0.39
⚠️ In addition, if the previous bottom of the blue box range is touched again and there is stabilization below it, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.⚠️
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BINANCE:SEIUSDT
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Cruel sell-off week, GOLD down more than 4%OANDA:XAUUSD This week suffered an extremely brutal sell-off, falling more than 4%, the largest decline since September 2023.
Trump is the biggest overall reason for OANDA:XAUUSD plummet
Gold had a pretty good month in October, rising along with the US Dollar which was supported by expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump.
Gold prices had previously even extended their gains despite a clear recovery in US Treasury yields across all maturities.
However, things have changed significantly since Trump was elected US president
The main concerns surround the possibility that the Trump administration will again use tariff measures. These measures will likely spur inflation again and could eventually prompt the Fed to reverse its ongoing easing cycle.
The main factor behind gold's surge earlier this year was ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas and the protracted war in Ukraine.
Whenever there is new news about the worsening conflict situation, investors flock to safe-haven assets such as gold. However, recently since Trump's victory, the geopolitical situation and conflicts are showing positive signs, which will create the basis for further gold selling pressure.
The Fed is also creating pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD
Slightly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week boosted the dollar and dampened interest in gold.
Powell said Thursday that the central bank is in no hurry to reduce borrowing costs while the economy continues to be strong, the labor market is solid and inflation is above its 2% target.
After Powell's speech, investors lowered the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, from 72% to 61.9%, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.
In addition to Powell's comments, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Finally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee left open the possibility of a December Fed meeting, adding, "The debate over neutral interest rates could slow the pace of rate cuts."
However, at the end of last Friday's trading session, despite positive US data, the Dollar was still under pressure as market participants took profits before the weekend. That limited gold's decline after falling to a 2-month low of $2,536/oz.
Highlights this week
This week, gold traders will pay attention to data from the Federal Reserve, unemployment claims and the release of the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
Overall, this week will be a week with quite a few notable data and events, other than unexpected events such as "Trump is sick and Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold recovered very slightly this past weekend, it still ended the week with 6 consecutive days of decline.
Gold's recovery keeps it above the 1% Fibonacci level at $2,548 but there is still plenty of room ahead as the most recent pressures from the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal resistance at $2,588 join the Fibonacci level. A 0.786% retracement will still prevent the recovery of gold prices.
On the other hand, it still has a technical trend that is completely tilted towards a bearish outlook with the price channel being the main trend in the short term. In addition, the Relative Strength Index is still pointing down without reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for price decline ahead.
Looking ahead, as long as gold remains within the price channel and below the $2,600 raw price, price increases should only be considered short-term technical corrections without affecting the current primary trend to the downside.
The downtrend in gold prices will be noticed again by the positions listed below.
Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD
Resistance: 2,600USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2515
→Take Profit 1 2526
↨
→Take Profit 2 2531
XAUUSD Potential Long OpportunityOn the 30-minute XAU/USD (Gold) chart, I’ve identified a potential long setup based on Fibonacci levels and recent price action.
🔹 Entry: Enter around the current level at $2,556, where we’re seeing signs of support.
🔹 Stop Loss: Place below the recent low near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level at $2,536. This area has previously acted as support, and a break below could signal a shift in trend.
🔹 Take Profit: Target the 0.25 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,577 or, for a higher target, consider the 0.5 retracement level around $2,597-$2,618. These levels have previously acted as resistance zones, making them logical profit points for a long position.
Ensure this trade aligns with your risk tolerance. With a stop loss set close to support, this setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio if the uptrend continues.
Good luck!
CARDANO 1D Golden Cross pushing for Resistance breakout to $1.40Last time we looked at Cardano (ADAUSD) was on September 24 (see chart below), when we called for the strongest buy signal in a year:
It couldn't have been more timely as we went from a 0.3690 price to 0.8200, a +120% rise. This High is also testing the March 14 2024 High, currently Resistance 2. The market just formed a 1D Golden Cross and last time it had one was exactly 1 year ago (November 18 2023). Soon after Resistance 2 broke and the price reached a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Even the 1D RSI is on a similar fractal.
As a result, once ADA closes a 1D candle above Resistance 2, we will target $1.400 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
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DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 106.605
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
SILVER: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 30.58523$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
GOLD: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily GOLD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 2,606.387$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.05577
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
BROADCOM Best buy opportunity since September for $223.Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) hit its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on Friday for the first time in more than 2 months (since September 11). This is the best buy opportunity since then as the dominant pattern remains the Bullish Megaphone.
On top of that, it appears that we are currently within a Bull Flag, similar to the one that was completed when the 1D MA100 was hit and held last time on April 19 2024. The 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are also very similar. That Flag initiated a price rebound above the 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on AVGO again, targeting $223.00.
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S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry.
As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets.
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EURUSD Bottom made. Now rally until end of year.The EURUSD pair eventually fulfilled all of our bearish signals since the September top, with the most recent one (November 11, see chart below) successfully hitting our 1.05300 Target:
We are now shifting to a long-term bullish sentiment after a long time, as the price finally reached the 1.05185 - 1.04500 Support Zone, which is holding for almost 2 years (since early January 2023).
The 1W RSI is virtually identical to the July - September 2023 Bearish Leg, on which we based all of our sell signals, as it was identified from early on that the similarities between the two were strong (1D chart).
Now that the 1.236 Fibonacci extension got hit, we expect the bullish reversal to reach at least the 0.5 Fibonacci level, as it happened on November 20 2023. As a result, our Target is currently 1.09400.
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GOLD:The trend remained down for the week
Gold fell all the way last week, 2686 fell to 2536 fell to 150 points, weekly pattern big top to determine, weekly trend continues to be bearish, this is the trend, the second is to find a position, short trend is beyond doubt.
The current performance is expected to rebound first repair let continue to fall, bear space will be larger, six trading days closed negative, last Thursday, the daily line appeared a hammer candle pattern, this is a stop down signal, but not the trend change signal, Friday repair today continue to repair, Asia-Europe time we first consider the opportunity to bear.
Based on the previous 4-hour line closed positive line, the short-term rebound will continue, the high of the rebound is near 2597, the actual suppression position is near 2603, Asia-Europe period first rely on this position to short, this week's shock repair small long is also a chance, Asia-Europe period small support is 2570, Friday repair low 2560 is also support, At present, the first estimated space is 2603-2570, according to this range to trade.
Support 2560 and 2570, pressure is 2603, strong pressure 2620 and 2643, disc strength and weakness line 2590.
XAUUSD 1D MA100 hit after 9 months! Expect ATH if it holds.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week and our bearish break-out signal easily hit the 2650 Target:
As you can see that was exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), what we claimed is the first long-term Support level. In fact that 1D MA100 test was the first touch in 9 months (since February 15 2024).
Technically, as long as it holds, we are expecting the long-term Channel Up to rebound on this Higher Low and start the new Bullish Leg towards a Higher High, which will be a new All Time High (ATH) for Gold.
The 1D MACD is reversing and if it forms a Bullish Cross, it will be the confirmation of the Bullish Leg. The last time actually it formed one this low (below 0.0), the Bullish Leg that followed reached the previous Resistance and then pulled-back again to the 1D MA50.
As a result, we are now targeting the previous Resistance level at 2790. If however we get a 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100, we won't hesitate to book the small loss again and reverse to a break-out sell, targeting a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 2440.
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USDJPYUSDJPY . Potential long opportunity.
After USDJPY has made its correction down to the trend line , the pair is still following the structure and still remains bullish . While USD is still “the best performing currency” at the moment, we can also take that into consideration for the bull move we are anticipating. If our SL is hit, the pair would be breaking structure and make deeper pullbacks in the price. Our SL (Stop Loss) is sitting at 153.758 . An important KL (Key Level) we have to look at is 155.626 . If the KL is broken to the upside, we would see our TP (Take Profit) hit, which is sitting at 157.865 .
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 154.815
- SL: 153.758
- TP: 157.865
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY made it’s pullback down to our trend line.
- Breaks below our SL would result in lower lows.
- Breaks above our KL would result in higher prices and hitting our TP.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
CADCHF: Bull Trap & Confirmed Bearish Movement 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF looks bearish after a false violation of a key horizontal
daily resistance.
The price formed a strong bearish imbalance
and violated multiple intraday supports.
I think that the pair will reach 0.6276 support soon.
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Keep watching for 99-102KMorning folks,
Since last week BTC has reached a solid target/resistance area together with weekly Overbought (where it still stands) we have considered two scenarios - either immediate downside pullback via H&S pattern, or attempt to touch major 102K target first and then the pullback.
Now it seems that everything goes with the latter scenario. H&S shape on 4H chart is totally ruined. while our 3-Drive stands well and its final part could take the shape of the butterfly.
We see nothing interesting for bears by far. But for bulls, if you will control the riks and 86K lows, which is invalidation point of this bullish scenario - everything could be fine.
Lingrid | EURUSD reached DEMAND zone. Possible LONGFX:EURUSD has reached the psychological level of 1.0500. On the 1H timeframe, the market has formed a double bottom pattern. Currently, the price is moving sideways above this psychological level, which may indicate a slow down in selling pressure. It's worth noting that the price surged from the support zone about a year ago, which we can refer to as a demand zone since the price has returned to it after one year. I believe the market could create a complex pullback, especially considering that the TVC:DXY has reached a strong resistance zone. I anticipate some reaction from this zone, with the price likely pulling back toward the downward trendline. My goal is resistance zone around 1.06350
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
GBPCHF: Bearish Move After Breakout 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF looks bearish after a retest of a recently broken horizontal support.
The price formed a double top on that and then continued falling with
a high momentum bearish candle.
I believe that the pair will reach 1.118 / 1.117 levels soon.
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BITCOIN-->Implementation and distribution phase. Target 100,000BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating after a strong rally. In the context of a more likely rally. The target around 95,000 - 100,000 is getting closer and more realistic. What is the reason?
The fundamental backdrop is strong because of the Trump presidential election, which is generally favorable for bitcoin and other crypto flows. Can this rally be even bigger? Yes! And there are bullish premises for it:
BTCUSDT has broken out of the accumulation (triangle) but faces a strong resistance zone. The coin continues to accumulate potential, but there are signs of a resistance breakout.
Technically, the picture on the chart is shaping up to be extremely bullish: no extension of the lows, strong consolidation and strong support levels.
I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of the support level and the formation of a false breakdown before further growth. But in any case, a break above the major resistance zone at 91,650 could trigger a bullish run.
Gold Price Today, November 18: Recovery TrendThe global gold price has recorded an increase, fluctuating around 2,584 USD/ounce. This week, the gold market is expected to remain relatively quiet, as fewer important economic data will be released. Key pieces of information that investors are awaiting include housing market data and building permits in the U.S., new home sales, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. Additionally, statements from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored to assess the likelihood and pace of future monetary policy adjustments.
Looking at the technical chart, with support at 2,562 USD/ounce, gold is gradually recovering its upward momentum. If gold holds above this support level, it is likely to continue rising toward the next resistance level around 2,600 USD/ounce, and could go even higher if strong capital flows into safe-haven assets. However, if the 2,562 support is broken, gold may face downward pressure, with the next support level around 2,540 USD/ounce. Economic factors and Fed policies will play a crucial role in shaping the short-term trend of the gold market.
What do you think about today's gold price? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
WTI continues to decline, even as Biden reverses policyAccording to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled.
TVC:USOIL fell during the Asian session on Monday (November 18), trading around $66.90/barrel, a drop equivalent to 2.43% on the day.
Basically, although the geopolitical situation is heating up, its impact on oil prices is limited. The main reason is that global demand is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor limiting the recovery of oil prices.
EIA inventories also increased last week, which is not favorable for a supply-side recovery in oil prices. According to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled.
Biden reverses policy on Russia-Ukraine conflict, allowing Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack Russia's homeland President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russia's homeland Russian land.
This is a major reversal in Washington's policy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days, but they did not disclose details due to concerns about operational security. There are still two months until President-elect Trump will take office on January 20.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months asked for Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. Biden's policy reversal has created some risks in the market, but it is also not considered good support for oil prices when there is a very high possibility that when Trump takes office, all policies related to the War in Ukraine will be abolished.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still maintaining the main downtrend sent to readers in previous publications with the current short-term target at about 66.44USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down with a steep slope and away from the oversold area, suggesting a broad bearish outlook ahead.
As long as WTI crude oil remains below its 21-day moving average (EMA21), it will still have a bearish near-term trend outlook. And once WTI crude oil is sold below 66.44USD it will have the conditions to fall a bit more with the target then being around 65.28USD.
During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 68.11 – 68.77USD