Will NVDIA rise at the expense of APPLE?We have seen in the past few days the NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) to be holding its ground better than other tech giants that got more inflated during the recent run like Tesla.
What we've discovered by running some regression tests among top 30 cap stocks, is a very interesting relationship between NVDIA and Apple Inc (AAPL). Though most people might think that the two have completely parallel paths on their growth, we found out that at times, their correlation has been negative.
Our sample data starts 2 years ago from the October - November 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. As you can see, this is where the first divergence between the two stocks started, with NVDIA rising to spearhead the recovery to a new Bull Cycle, while Apple was lagging behind and falling.
What followed was a period where naturally both stocks rose, which led to the first 'Bear' stage, what we call Phase 2 where both stocks showed a synchronized weakness (with Apple correcting more however).
Then after a recovery for both to their highs, NVDIA formed a Bull Flag, which led to Phase 3 (similar to the late 2022 price action): Apple topped and started falling aggressively, while NVDIA started an impressive rally.
Again a period of price increase for both stocks followed, which has led to a new Phase 2 (July -October 2024). In line with their 2-year pattern, Apple has been rising since the November U.S. elections, while NVDIA has formed a new Bull Flag.
If the price action continues to replicate this model, then we may see a new Phase 3, where Apple starts to correct while NVDIA's Bull Flag leads to a strong rally.
So do you think potential Apple capital outflows will turn into inflows for NVDIA?
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Signals
Lingrid | GOLD Post-FED Shakeup. Possible Bearish OpportunityThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It hit the TP. OANDA:XAUUSD made a sharp decline after FED rate decision and FOMC. The price broke and closed below the lows of the past three weeks, which could lead to a fake breakout, so we should closely monitor the price action. Additionally, it broke and closed below the trendline that had supported the price for over a month. I think the market may gradually move down toward last month's low by the end of the year. With high-impact news coming today, there is potential for unexpected moves. Overall, I expect the market to bounce off the upward trendline and the resistance zone around 2640-2650, followed by another bearish move. My goal is support zone around 2570
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart in the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after collecting liquidity below $2635, the price faced renewed demand and successfully climbed above $2641. As a result, gold managed to rise to $2651, delivering a 100-pip return.
Today, we have the US interest rate decision, which could bring significant volatility to the market, with both bull traps and bear traps likely. If you are not a professional trader, it’s better to stay away from the market and wait for stabilization, especially during Jerome Powell’s speech.
The previous analysis remains valid: as long as the price holds above $2641, we can expect further upward movement. However, if the price drops below $2641 and closes a candle underneath, we will likely see a sharp decline.
Keep these scenarios in mind and be patient to find the best trigger.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
BNBUSD Patience! One more month of consolidation before $2350.Binance Coin (BNBUSD) has been in Accumulation Mode since early March (March 11 1W candle), trading sideways within initially the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) Mean (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line) and since July within the 1st SD above and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
With regards to the 1W MA50 in particular, not only has it been the support since the late December 2023 bullish break-out but was successfully tested and held on the most recent pull-back, the August 05 Low.
This solidifies its position as the Support throughout the remainder of the Bull Cycle, which was in fact also the case during the previous Cycle where BNB had the final accumulation phase (blue ellipse) from September to December 2020, again within the same MMB - 1W MA50 zone, which initiated the most aggressive part of the Cycle (parabolic rally). Check also how similar their RSI sequences are.
That rally peaked on the MM 3rd SD above (red trend-line) so a $2350 price tag, which will 'only' come close to the 2nd SD (orange trend-line), appears to be a realistic Target. So in conclusion, BNB investors need to have 1 more month of patience before they see a real rally, as it was on the week of February 01 2021 that BNB's Parabolic Rally started.
As a side-note, check how the Sine Waves serve as an excellent tool in roughly estimating the timing of the Cycle's peak, as it was very efficient during the previous two Cycles. That could be anywhere around June - July 2025.
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DXY Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 30m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 108.242.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 108.539 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed 🇺🇸🇨🇭
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EUR-AUD Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the
Key level of 1.6596 then
Made a pullback and is
Now going up again
So we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top:
Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook.
The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize.
For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc.
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GBPJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisGBPJPY is moving in an UP trend channel, is trading along the rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it I am expecting the price to go up To retest the supply levels above at
The chart broke through the dynamic support, which now acts ...
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity GBPJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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AUDCHF Is Going Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.558.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.553 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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BITCOIN Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 95,186.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 90,936 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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ADA. Correction Opportunity: Don’t Miss This Entry! 12/20/24BYBIT:ADAUSDT
The market experienced a pullback, and the price returned to the lower boundary of the range before breaking through its support and moving toward a high-volume level, where a strong buyer was present. We also saw a proper Fibonacci correction, which might indicate a potential reversal and a good entry point for a spot position.
I'm entering with 0.5% of my deposit and will add another 0.5% in case of further correction.
DYOR.
Lingrid | EURUSD Bearish Momentum Persists. ShortFX:EURUSD dropped after the news was released and is now pulling back toward the resistance zone. The price is slowing down and forming rejection candles, indicating a potential reversal at this resistance zone. On the 1H chart, the price is showing an ABCD pullback pattern. Given the bearish sentiment, I believe the market might continue to move downward. I expect a pullback to the resistance zone around 1.04300 before the bearish trend resumes. My goal is support zone around 1.03260
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Lingrid | EURGBP sideways MOVEMENT. Potential ShortFX:EURGBP market is oscillating between the support zone at 0.82300 and the resistance zone at 0.83300. Currently, the price has bounced off the support level and is approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation zone. There is a strong chance that the market will rebound at the resistance level, where the upward trendline and the resistance zone around 0.83000. I anticipate that the market will pull back from this zone and potentially retest the middle of the consolidation range before deciding its next direction. My goal is support zone around 0.82700
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAUUSD - continuation sells? What about Pullbacks?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2605 .
We are still following our long-term analysis on XAUUSD which was posted on November 27th (almost a month ago).
Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are now using H1 to show you possible outcomes we might have in play.
Overall XAUUSD is still extremely bearish . We could see the following scenarios happen.
Scenario 1: SELL from 2620
We could see a potential pullback to 2620, which was respected last time we made a pullback from the massive drop on XAUUSD. This would give us an amazing entry for further gold sells.
Scenario 2: SELL from 2633
A deeper pullback could happen if we break to the upside from 2620. Entering in 2633 would give us an amazing opportunity to hop into sells and hold it long-term, still targeting the 2480 level.
Scenario 3: SELL from 2590
Breaks below 2590 would result in more sells on the pair. As we failed to break to the upside that would confirm the 2620 being the “pullback area” and we will most likely continue to the downside. We would be targeting 2550 and possible breaks of it. If 2550 would be broken we could start seeing more extreme sells on XAUUSD.
Personal opinion:
The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some more sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD is overall bearish.
- XAUUSD sells are valid from key pullback areas 2620 and 2633.
- XAUUSD breaks below 2590 would also confirm further sells.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
NZDJPY bottomed being formed. Huge long-term buy.The NZDJPY pair gave us an excellent sell signal back on our July 10 analysis (see chart below) and not only hit our 95.580 Target but broke below and invalidated the medium-term Channel Up:
The long-term Channel Up however, is still intact and it is evident on the 1W time-frame where the July - August sell-off found support and stopped exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
That was the first strong long-term buy signal. Since then, the price has been consolidating within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has already rejected the uptrend multiple times and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
The second buy signal came this month, as it made a Double Bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. This whole sequence is very similar with the bottom formations of Jan - April 2023 and December - February 2022. Both started new Bullish Legs and never looked back once the price broke above the 1W MA50.
So the confirmed buy signal for this pair will be if a 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50. If that happens, we will turn bullish with our Target being 102.000 (+18.31%, the minimum Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up).
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GBP/USD--> Just One Step Away from a Further DeclineHello everyone, Ben here!
Today, GBP/USD continues to face significant challenges. The pair remains under pressure due to a negative fundamental backdrop, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the emergence of a critical resistance zone. These factors all point to the likelihood of a sustained bearish trend.
Yesterday, the UK GDP figures were released, showing no change. This lack of improvement leaves the British pound without any meaningful upward catalysts. Meanwhile, the US dollar finds support from recent market dynamics. Despite rate cuts, the dollar is gaining momentum, bolstered by hawkish rhetoric and expectations of economic growth. Against the backdrop of Trump-era policy shifts, the medium-term outlook for the greenback appears favorable.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is currently testing a high-risk resistance zone. If a false breakout occurs, it could trigger a short-term rebound. However, this reaction is likely to be temporary. Following such a move, the pair may target a retest of local resistance levels. Yet, the real focal point lies in the support test within the next 1–3 days, which could set the stage for a deeper decline.
A crucial level to watch is 1.2488. Should a base form at this point before any significant breakout, it would reinforce the bearish outlook and pave the way for further downward movement.
Stay sharp and trade wisely!
Yours truly, BenTradeGold.
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future.
Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year.
According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation.
This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term.
According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates.
Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.