Shorttrade
NF - expect a DOWN correction FRIDAY⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The price of gold, which had been rising since February 28, dropped close to $2,160 per ounce during Asian trading on Friday. Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June have been supporting the price of gold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during his testimony before Congress further reinforced speculation about rate cuts.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
A week that witnessed record high prices for Gold. A sudden price increase cannot avoid a DOWN correction. NF expects a downward adjustment for Gold
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2100 - $2102 SL $2096
TP1: $2110
TP2: $2120
TP3: $2130
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2178 - $2180 SL $2185
TP1: $2170
TP2: $2160
TP3: $2150
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
GBP/ USD !! Resistance zone H4 !! SELL ⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GBP/ USD INFORMATION:
The GBP/USD pair remains above the 1.2800 level in early Asian trading on Friday, supported by selling pressure on the US Dollar. Focus will be on the US labor market data for February. GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2810, up 0.01% on the day.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell presented the Monetary Policy Report and discussed potential interest rate cuts during a Senate Banking Committee meeting on Thursday. Powell suggested that rate cuts could happen soon if inflation signals cooperate, but did not provide a specific timeline. Investors anticipate the first cut to occur in June, with a total of four reductions by the end of 2024, amounting to a full percentage point decrease.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Resistance zone H4, buying force weakens, setting up SELL signal
⭐️ SET UP GBP/ USD PRICE:
🔥SELL zone: 1.28050 - 1.28250 SL 1.28550
TP1: 1.27700
TP2: 1.27300
TP3: 1.27000
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
A period of excitement and optimism for Gold⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The price of gold (XAU/USD) increased to a level not seen in nine weeks, just below the $2,100 threshold, early on Monday during Asian trading hours. Speculation about potential interest rate cuts later this year was fueled by discouraging economic data from the United States on Friday. Additionally, the decline in US Treasury yields gave further momentum to the upward trend in investor demand for gold. As of now, the price of gold stands at $2,085.55, showing no change throughout the day.
According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday, the US Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 in February from 49.1 in the previous reading. This marks the 16th consecutive month that the index has remained below 50, which indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
In an optimistic period for Gold, Gold prices need a downward adjustment if they want to surpass the 2100 mark in the first quarter of 2024.
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2064 - $2066 SL $2060
TP1: $2070
TP2: $2076
TP3: $2082
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2093 - $2095 SL $2100
TP1: $2088
TP2: $2080
TP3: $2070
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Gold Soars to Break Bearish Trend - Expected Correction Ahead!Today, gold managed to achieve a remarkable growth, breaking completely out of its downward trend.
Important resistance for gold lies between 2084 - 2088, and I expect that with the market opening next week, it will start a corrective move from this range or slightly higher at 2092 - 2096.
We have several reasons:
Firstly, the downtrend line has been breached, indicating the need for further buying pressure to sustain the upward momentum, which typically requires a correction in a financial market.
This rapid and extraordinary rise in the price of gold without any fundamental news or geopolitical tensions is unlikely and deceiving.
In my opinion, the targets for the downside move could be 2077 - 2064 - 2052.
I hope we all have a great weekend ahead! ❤️
GBP/ AUD !! Trendline and resistance !! SELL NOW ⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Monday's trading session did not have many fluctuations, the price area touched the trendline and resistance area, setting up a SELL signal
⭐️ SET UP GBP/ AUD PRICE:
🔥SELL zone: 1.94300 - 1.94500 SL : 1.94800
TP 1 : 1.94000
TP 2 : 1.93700
TP 3 : 1.93300
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
NZDUSD Short to fill the GapGlossary:
VA – Value Area
Liq.P – Liquidity Point
PiPo – Pivot Point
BO – Break-Out
H1 – Hourly Time-frame
M15 – 15min Time-frame
LTF – Lower Time-frame
HTF – Higher Time-frame
Magenta horizontal Ray – Area of Interest
Magenta rectangle – Gap / Area of Significance
***********
2024 – 03 – 04 NZDUSD short
DXY positioning indicating continuation short, and therefore a weaker Dollar;
However NZDUSD on it's own looks likely to fill the gap to the previous VA.
Technically it did not come from a significant VA but shows exhausting PA on the top, followed by a BO of a running channel and is now starting a bigger H1 continuation structure before the last leg down to fill the gab to the VA.
I am now waiting for price to tap into the Liq.P and show some form of a LTF consolidation for an entry short.
AMD is no NVDA don't fall into the hype!
AMD vs. NVDA:
When looking at these two stocks it's clear that NVDA is the clear winner and will maintain its pricing power over alternatives.
NVDA's Gross margin (75.97%) is +35.57% that of AMD (40.4%).
Although AMD has a low price to sales ratio this is likely due to them having a "Walmart sales model". High volume, low margin.
This is illustrated further when looking at both companies price to cash flow ratio. Despite recent surges in NVDA stock price this has been trending lower for NVDA and higher for AMD.
Most recent price to cash flow ratios: NVDA (54.1) and AMD (188.14). This helps visualize how much investors are paying for each company to generate cash flow.
I don't know about you but I am not willing to get in at these levels and although it is very risky I'm tempted to buy some puts against AMD. Yes they have excellent management and a large economic moat, it does not compare to that of NVDA and it should not be benefiting as greatly as it has recently by NVDA's recent performance.
AMD is now approaching the top of a channel that has been strong resistance for higher moves.
It seems like everyone in the market is un NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMD der the impression nothing ever falls. Although it would be bold and extremely risky to buy puts on any AI stock I believe it to be the correct one.
Curious to hear others opinions.
AMD:
www.tradingview.com
NVDA:
www.tradingview.com
AUD/ CAD !! 29/2/2024 Trendline DOWN, SELL now⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Pay attention to the long-term DECREASE trendline, set up a SELL signal
⭐️ SET UP AUD/CAD PRICE:
🔥SELL zone:0.88450 - 0.88600 SL 0.89000
TP1: 0.88100
TP2: 0.87800
TP3: 0.87500
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
WHAT IS THE NEXT MOVE FOR EURUSD CURRENCY PAIR? READ THE CAPTIONFundamentally, the euro has been under pressure due to concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone. Recent data releases, including disappointing PMI figures and sluggish GDP growth, have raised worries about the region's recovery from the pandemic-induced recession. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has added to investor caution, leading to a flight from euro-denominated assets.
In contrast, the US dollar has found support from strong economic data releases, particularly in the labor market and consumer spending sectors. Robust employment figures, coupled with rising inflationary pressures, have fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The anticipation of interest rate hikes has strengthened the dollar against its major counterparts, including the euro.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States for further insight into the economic recovery trajectories. Key data releases, such as inflation figures, GDP growth rates, and central bank communications, will likely drive movements in the EUR/USD pair in the coming weeks. Additionally, geopolitical developments, particularly those related to tensions in Eastern Europe, could introduce volatility and impact investor sentiment towards the euro.
Overall, the fundamental backdrop suggests a bearish bias for EUR/USD, with economic divergence between the Eurozone and the United States likely to persist in the near term.
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Nvidia correctionAfter a big rally in price stock i think that the company is overvalued in this moment in my opinion.
After so a good start in the stocks the companies starts to sell stocks to mark some big profits.
Many companies have declared that they intend to make the stocks more accessible for retail investors.
Today i short the stock.
First TP 770
Second TP 740
Third TP 700
BANDHAN BANK: Underperforming name in banking spacestock is strong downtrend
its one of theweakmost names in banking space
with banking index trading near all time high
this stock is at 52 week lows and not just that but at 3 year lows
such stocks are ideal sell candidates fr trading and expect a heavy downmove here with a stop above 232 mark
Sideway, weekend accumulation for Gold⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Meanwhile, yields on US Treasury bonds are increasing on the shorter end of the yield curve, indicating that investors are still doubtful about the possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates during either the March or May meetings. The most recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that the US central bank is strongly committed to addressing inflation, despite the fact that there are more potential risks to the economy. Policymakers stressed that they would make decisions regarding monetary policy based on data analysis.
The FOMC Minutes revealed that Fed officials are still cautious about cutting rates prematurely. They stated that it would not be appropriate to lower interest rates until they have "greater confidence" that core inflation will consistently reach 2%. While policymakers acknowledged that the risks associated with achieving their mandates are becoming more balanced, they remain highly focused on inflationary risks, despite the downward economic risks.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
At the end of the week, Gold price supports a sideways trend and accumulates for the next week
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2012 - $2010 SL $2005
TP1: $2016
TP2: $2024
TP3: $2030
Pay attention to the sideway resistance and support areas: $2030 and $2020
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2038 - $2040 SL $2045
TP1: $2034
TP2: $2028
TP3: $2020
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Potential Correction in AUDJPY Following Rally Towards High SuppAUDJPY has shown strong performance since early February 2024, experiencing a significant rally from the level of 95.640 to reaching today's high at 99.024. However, this movement has brought the currency pair into the territory of the highest supply level. With this condition, there is potential for AUDJPY to undergo a temporary correction.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, it can be observed that AUDJPY has reached a significant resistance level around 99.024, which is the current highest supply level.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting that this currency pair may have moved too far beyond its short-term fair value.
There is potential for the formation of a bearish reversal pattern such as a double top or shooting star around the current supply level, adding validity to the correction prediction.
Projection:
Taking into consideration the above factors, AUDJPY is likely to undergo a minor correction towards the level of 97.737 in the coming sessions. This could present an opportunity for traders to take short-term profits or to seek entry points for short positions with correction targets. However, it is important to monitor market developments closely and set appropriate stop losses to manage risk effectively.
Trading Through Turbulence: EUR/USD Strategies Amid U.S. Fiscal The current economic indicators, alongside commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, suggest a cautious approach towards the EUR/USD pair. With the U.S. showing no immediate intent to cut interest rates due to a robust labor market and unresolved inflation targets, traders should prepare for potential dollar strength and volatility in the currency markets. The anticipation of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy further complicates the landscape, warranting a strategic approach to trading the EUR/USD pair.
1. U.S. Interest Rate Outlook:
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's recent statements highlight a significant resistance to cutting interest rates in the near term. The robustness of the U.S. labor market and the economy, coupled with inflation not convincingly on track to meet the 2% target, suggests that the dollar might remain strong. Bostic's remarks underscore the uncertainty surrounding inflation, indicating that the Fed is not yet convinced that inflationary pressures are sufficiently under control to warrant a change in monetary policy. This stance is crucial for EUR/USD traders, as interest rate expectations are a primary driver of currency movements. The Fed's cautious approach may bolster the dollar, creating resistance against EUR gains.
2. Market Reactions and Treasury Movements:
The reaction to Bostic’s comments was immediate, with Treasuries falling and holding their decline, reflecting market adjustments to the expectations of continued strong U.S. monetary policy. Conversely, Jupiter Asset Management's move to increase its Treasury holdings to a record suggests a hedging strategy against a potential economic downturn. For EUR/USD traders, these dynamics indicate a flight to safety and potential volatility, with a strong dollar scenario possibly prevailing in the short term.
3. Equity Market Inflows and Implications for the Dollar:
Significant inflows into global equity funds, especially following substantial sell-offs in U.S. stocks by Japanese and Chinese funds, hint at a complex investment landscape. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures' rise indicates investor optimism or speculative positioning, potentially impacting the dollar by influencing risk sentiment. For the EUR/USD, this could mean short-term bullish signals for the dollar, especially if equity market strength translates into confidence in the U.S. economy.
4. Inflation Concerns and Labor Market Strength:
The anticipated high CPI and potential for a similarly high Producer Price Index (PPI) could extinguish hopes for an interest rate cut, further strengthening the dollar. The persistent strength of the U.S. labor market suggests that inflation may not be easily tamed, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. For EUR/USD traders, this means monitoring U.S. economic indicators closely, as signs of sustained inflation or labor market overheating could prompt adjustments in trading strategies, favoring the dollar.
The EUR/USD trading environment is marked by uncertainty, with a robust U.S. economy and unresolved inflation concerns suggesting a cautious approach. Traders should remain vigilant, adapting strategies to navigate potential volatility and the implications of U.S. monetary policy on currency movements.
EUR/ JPY !! 20/2/2024 Resistance zone, SELL NOW⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Strong resistance zone at 161,900, no important economic data today, correction DOWN
⭐️ SET UP EUR/ JPY PRICE:
🔥SELL zone: 161.870 - 162.070 SL 162.370
TP1: 161.570
TP2: 161.270
TP3: 160.870
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Still recovering momentum from Gold !! ⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The price of gold (XAU/USD) remains above $2,000 during the early Asian session on Monday. Economic data from the US indicates that inflation is higher than expected, leading financial markets to revise their expectations about the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in June. Currently, the gold price is trading at $2,014, reflecting a 0.12% gain for the day.
In January, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.3% compared to a 0.1% decline in December. This marks the largest increase since August 2023. On a yearly basis, the PPI figure rose by 0.9% compared to a 1.0% increase in the previous reading. In contrast, US Housing Starts experienced a significant decline of -14.8% from 1.562M to 1.331M, while Building Permits slumped by -1.5%.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Still recovering, increasing price from Gold, approaching $2020 area, expecting the next DOWN trend
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $1985 - $1987 SL $1980
TP1: $1992
TP2: $2000
TP3: $2010
Pay attention to the $2010 support zone
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2028 - $2030 SL $2035
TP1: $2020
TP2: $2010
TP3: $2000
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Continue the DOWN trend next week !! XAU ✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 19/2 - 23/2/2024
🔥 World situation:
In the meantime, there were updates from Federal Reserve officials, specifically Atlanta's Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Bostic emphasized the need for patience and predicted that there could be two rate cuts in the summer if the data supports it. Daly acknowledged that there is work to be done and cautioned against acting hastily when patience is required, instead advocating for agility in response to the evolving economy.
Both officials recognized that inflation is trending downward but remain cautious about the timing of implementing policy easing.
Considering the underlying factors, the price of Gold would be influenced by the outlook of the US economy. An increase in inflation could lead to a rise in US Treasury bond yields, resulting in further downside for XAU/USD. On the other hand, if inflation continues to align with the Fed's 2% target, this could create an opportunity for rate cuts, which would impact the appeal of the Greenback. Consequently, the upside potential for XAU/USD is anticipated.
🔥 Identify:
The slight recovery this week has helped Gold prices return to above $2010. But still within the bearish trendline. Selling pressure next week will continue to weigh on Gold prices
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2037, $2053
Support : $1987, $1974
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Gold slightly recovered before the DOWN trend⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The most recent data from the United States presented a mixed picture. In January, Retail Sales experienced a decline of -0.8% on a month-to-month basis, falling short of both the previous month's numbers and the estimated contraction of -0.1%. This decrease was primarily attributed to reduced sales at auto dealerships and gasoline service stations, with stormy weather conditions further impacting sales.
At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the latest week stood at 212K, lower than both the forecasts and the previous week's reading of 220K. This development is somewhat unexpected, considering that claims were expected to rise following announcements of layoffs by several companies.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Gold's short-term recovery in a DOWN trend, $2015 expectations. Today's economic data could help Gold get there
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $1975 - $1977 SL $1970
TP1: $1982
TP2: $1990
TP3: $2000
Pay attention to the $1980 support zone
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2014 - $2016 SL $2020
TP1: $2010
TP2: $2000
TP3: $1990
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest