SPOT has been on a tear in 2020.. but will it continue?Diving into SPOT, if you've been in this stock this year you've probably been pretty happy with the performance. With a number of big product releases and the effects of JOE ROGAN and MICHELLE OBAMA signing exclusive deals to drive subscribers, the stock pumped so fast from around $180 to nearly $300, that if you blinked you probably missed it.
Well, what now? Do you buy at these levels, do you wait? Whats this company really worth?
Obviously SPOT has a lot of competition. With AAPL launching their new subscription service packages that basically will force me to have Apple Music, and AMZN launching podcasting on their music service, how many music services does one person need?
I still love my SPOT subscription more than any other service option out there. That's what keeps me believing in this stock. I don't want to ever give up my Spotify, and I bet most others don't either. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.
Remember NFLX just 5 years ago? That might be where SPOT is today. It's worth considering.
Now let's look at the chart. I've drawn an Elliot Wave pattern in there, and what a correction might look like. We are definitely in a correction pattern right now. My intuition and my bet is that we are in the 2nd wave of a much larger cycle. What excites me about that is the 3rd wave tends to be the largest move. That would mean if you want to play a longer term trade like me, you want to buy in anywhere in the $182-$227 range. I would recommend your sweet spot to be above $200, even around $210-220 depending on your tolerance for missing a buy opportunity.
This stock has a lot of love, and psychological supports are a thing. That's why I find it unlikely we'll see this stock below $200 again unfortunately, and if we do then we need to double check our fundamental analysis and if nothing has changed we will go in with both hands.
Now the real exciting part of that trade, should you get in around these levels and lower, is the longer term target is close to $400. Should SPOT continue to diversify their service offering and have that "sticky" product effect where it's just something we all need to have, this isn't farfetched, and is a likely story to happen in the next 1 year.
Meanwhile, for the shorter term trades, volatility in this stock can be good, and therefore if we are in a 2nd wave correction, then this is a great time to both be getting a position, but also trading within the correction to make that position as cheap as possible for your 3rd wave run.
If this does manifest, and one plays it correctly, by the time you reach my longer term target you should be able to sell a portion of your stack and hold a free and sizable position in this household name.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional, nor do I claim to know what I am doing. I chart for my own education and revealing potential trade setups. I am always open to constructive feedback and resources that you can recommend to "up" my game. Thank you!
