Selling
Short on US30 SELL SELL SELL !!!I personally have been short on this pair since December :)
Okay some may see this as a crazy setup but i believe US30 setup will fall to around 7000 in the next year or so
There are many reasons for this setup Fundamentals and technicals
FUNDAMENTALS
- jubilee year ?
- shemitah Year ?
- every 8 years a financial crisis
- FED raising rates to signify economy in a recession
- The possibility of QE4 ?
- A possible world disaster ?
i can keep going on in regards to such things but ill keep it short
TECHNICALS
- Price has hit a all time high and after the US30 booming for around 8 Years isit time for a change ?
- Price found strong KEY LEVEL (RES) at 18000
- Price is now down trending
- Price has put in lower high and lower lows
- Price has broken many key Trendlines
- Also price is on the verge of breaking a key level (SUP) at 16000
- If price breaks that key level we will possibly see a huge drop to the downside
I can go on abit more too but i am sure you all get the idea i am portraying
i do believe and confident of the drop too 8000/7000 :)
so here we come 8000 POINTS PROFIT ;)
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- NFLX, IBM, GS, SBUX, AND OTHERSNext week is literally hopping with potential earnings announcement plays.
I've tried to pick out the ones that (1) have > 70% implied volatility rank; (2) offer greater than a 1.00 credit ($100) for the "classic" one standard deviation short strangle setup; (3) have fairly good liquidity with options prices; and (4) offer weeklies, but there are also a few >.50/<1.00 credit plays that I might nevertheless play (e.g., CREE, SBUX), although I think I can afford to be picky here given the selection ... .
PLAYS TO PUT ON TUESDAY
CREE -- Tuesday, after market close. High implied vol rank/high implied vol, but <1.00 credit for a 1 standard deviation short strangle.
IBM -- Tuesday, after market close.
NFLX -- Tuesday, after market close.
GS -- Wednesday, before market open.
PLAYS TO PUT ON WEDNESDAY
SBUX -- Wednesday, after market close. High implied vol/but implied vol <50% and <1.00 credit.
PLAYS TO PUT ON THURSDAY
SLB -- Thursday, after market close. I don't think I've every played this underlying. It's a tech company that provides support to oil and gas, and I've got plenty of petro plays on.
Notes: There are also a couple of earnings plays that might be interesting to play via other methods. One of these that comes to mind is KMI. It's got a high implied volatility rank, high implied volatility, and liquidity. The problem is that the price of the underlying is currently $13.00, so you just can't get enough premium out of it via short strangle or iron condor to bother with it using one of those strategies ... .
USD/JPY SELL SELL SELL !!!Also another sell setup
1. price has come to previous structure and shown a huge bearish candle
2. price put in a bearish engulfing candle
3 price is downtrending
4.previous candle was a doji
on the daily previous candle was a bearish hammer sign of more sellers in the market :)
XOP SHORT STRANGLE IDEAWith an implied volatility rank of 76 and an implied volatility of 56, an XOP short strangle is a good premium selling play here, with the standard 45 day setup yielding about 1.00 in credit for only $275 or so worth of buying power.
Here's the setup:
Feb 19th 23/32 short strangle
Probability of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $97
Buying Power Effect: ~$275
Break Evens: 22.03/32.97
Naturally, things may change come Monday open, so be prepared to tweak your strikes and/or fill price ... .
WYNN Long PlaySimply wynn has beated earnings previously after having earnings misses consecutively. We have the stock picking up momentum and buying action in anticipation for the next earnings call in February. Traders have overall good sentiment in the company and are looking to get long early. Im long at C if we rally before earnings or if we have good earnings i will be long into D if im late with the trade
QQQ -- SHORT STRANGLE IDEAAs an alternative to the IWM play (posted below), here's a QQQ setup:
Feb 12 103.5/116.5 short strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: 1.55/contract
BPE: Undefined
Break Evens: 101.95/118.05
gbpjpy selling startedgbpjpy is going smoothly down , and we will be looking for any good pull back entry or any good Sell Stop entry !
HES -- POST EARNINGS HIGH VOL PLAYWith a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR).
Here's my set up:
Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: $150/contract
BPE: ~$597/contract
BE's: 49.50/69.50
Notes: The underlying isn't the most liquid thing, so you may not get a fill at this particular price and might have to monkey around with it a bit. Me, I'm just going to enter the order and if it fills, it fills. If it doesn't, I'll look at it again next week to still if there's still premium in the play. As always, I'll look to take the trade off at 50% max profit so I can redeploy the capital elsewhere.
GBP/USD SELL SELL SELL !!!So ....
1.we have a strong trend line acting as RES
2.we had a fake break out
3. price has dropeed after the retest of trendline
4.bearish engulfing on previous 4hr candle
5.daily candle is a bearish hammer
EURUSD Weekly review, as a plan for a begining of the week.Price direction on a Quarter chart is down, as new lower low and lower high appeared (Price direction is not the same as a trend direction)
Last Quarter's close is below 5MA what gives a bit more power to bearish signals
We have a bearish chart pattern (Quarter)
Price is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area
in a relation to Previous swing UP
Will look for a bearish long-term entry setup (based on Quarter chart, using lower leverage and wider stops, this type of trade will be left open for up to a quarter) at around 1.1025
On a weekly chart we have a bearish chart pattern
Price is currently at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to weekly timeframe)
in a relation to previous swing Down
Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on weekly chart, this type of trade will be left open for a few days) at around 1.1025
On a 1D chart we have a bearish chart pattern
Price is currently at 76.4% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to 1D timeframe)
in a relation to Previous swing UP
Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on 1D chart, trade will be left for Hours, but position will be closed in parts and using a trailing technique, will try leave it open for a maximum period possible) at around 1.1025
In conclusion, all the levels I mentioned are based on a current market activity, but everything can be changed within seconds, however based on a review that is done, I will be looking for a selling opportunities coming week.
TLT -- A LITTLE BIT HIGHER VOLATILITY, PLEASEIf for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium.
In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of 28.77 on or about July 10th. Volatility of greater than 70% of the high is considered pretty good for selling premium, and 70% of 28.77 is about 20.14. Right now, TLT's HV is sitting below 16 (about 56% of the high), so it might be best to wait to set up premium selling plays in TLT until the volatility increases to +20 ... .
WEEK OF 9/28: NON-EARNINGS PLAYS FOR PREMIUM SELLING OPPSAlthough we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly awry such that you have to devote buying power to managing a tested side post-earnings, potentially for several options cycles going forward.
Since I have a play already going in OIH (current IVR at 66), I'm looking to add either index ETF trades this coming week or, in the alternative, sector ETF trades that are not correlated to what I've already got on in my portfolio and that have sufficiently high IVR so that a premium selling play is attractive.
Looking at the Dough Grid with the drop-down menu set to "TastyTrade", XLV is a possible candidate, with an IVR currently at 62 ... .
POSSIBLE TRADE:
Nov 20th 59/61/72/74 Iron Condor
POP % -- 61%
Max Profit: .61 credit/contract
Buying Power Effect: 1.39/contract
Break-Evens: 60.39/72.61
Delta: -2.36/contract
Notes: The short put side of the setup is placed around the 1 SD; the long side, at the edge of the expected move to the topside for that expiration. Due to the price of the underlying, the spread of the wings is reduced to 2 strikes, although you can certainly expand the width to 3 strikes in order to harvest more credit from the trade. I wouldn't go wider than 3, however. Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max duration.
In all likelihood, the strikes may require a bit of adjustment at NY York open to accommodate overnight, broader index price movement.
DAX at channel resistance and resistance lineHi Traders,
DAX today reached its channel resistance and also resistance line around 11,620. I expect for him to find resistance in this zone, however, It wouldnt surprise me see him making another high tomorrow to touch that 0.618% fib at 11,731 and fall, HOWEVER, we need to close the daily bellow channel line to show that sellers put some short orders.
Stop loss I would put at 11,840 (abit higher than the last high to not see DAX stop some trader out and than fall).
Thanks for looking!
Thiago Duarte
@thiagotrader
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
GBP/USD Analysis 01.05.2013Background:
Price found enough demand to halt its current downmove @1.46300 where the current minor rally
broke the (red) supplyline indicating that demand outweight supply at this moment , the rally stopped near
the current high @1.5552 which can bee seen as current resistance which needs to be overcome in order to speak
for returning strenght to the market , if we break the (green) demandline we may head down to at least 1.50280
which is the 50% retracement level of the current rally, any buying occuring at that level can bee seen as a further
sign of strenght , however if we fail to hold this level we head back to the support @1.4630 and any rejection at this
level can be seen as strenght yet again , however we may form a trading range between res.1.55520 and sup.
1.4630 for the time beeing .
Signs of Strenght:
Downmove came to an halt
Broken Supplyline
Signs of Weakness:
Price failed to take out the actual high
Key Levels above current price:
1.5520
1.5870
Key Levels below current price:
1.5028
1.4630
sidenote:
A downmove can only last for so long till their is a change in demand, and the balance of supply and demand
changes in the favour of demand , ie. the buyers are at least heads up with the sellers and stop price from going any
lower , if price then is in equibilirium ie., going sideways most traders agree on the same price "fair value"
value = price over time , this balance(cause) aswell only goes on so long till there is a change in demand and supply
and we have an imbalance(effect) and a new trend establishes till we find balance again..
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART SHORTI'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD CURRENCY IS STILL OVERVALUED AND THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT SAID HE.LL LIKE TO SEE AUD REACH 0.75000 WHICH IS ADDED CONFLUENCE THAT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET THERE. AUD IS DOVISH WHILE THE FED IS HAWKISH SO WE'VE GOT A GREAT DIVERGENCE ON THIS PAIR.
