Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator
INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY!
Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations.
Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios:
Bullish Breakout Example:
Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000.
If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside.
The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals.
Bearish Breakout Example:
Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000.
If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside.
The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals.
LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
Selling
Raw VS Percentage Volatility FormatA Quantitative Comparison of "Buying & Selling Pressure" and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"
In market analysis, the choice of averaging method can profoundly influence the insights derived. The "Buying & Selling Pressure " and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicators demonstrate the unique strengths of fixed-period and candle-count-based averaging approaches.
Key Differences Between Fixed-Period and Candle-Count Averaging
Fixed-Period Averaging in BSP:
➡︎ In "Buying & Selling Pressure", candle metrics are averaged over a defined period (e.g., 14 bars).
➡︎ This provides rapid insights into market sentiment changes, making it ideal for tracking incentive shifts and volatility in real time.
➡︎ However, because this method includes all candles in the averaging window, it may reflect short-term fluctuations, offering less stability compared to candle-count-based methods.
Candle-Count Averaging in ABBPC:
➡︎ "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"uses a predefined count of bullish or bearish candles for averaging percentage changes.
➡︎ This produces stable and reliable values, which are less sensitive to noise and better suited for risk and reward assessment.
➡︎ The focus on specific candle states ensures that only relevant market behaviors contribute to the averages.
Using Percentage Change for Risk Definition
One of the greatest strengths of the "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicator is its ability to assist in risk and reward calculations with much more market related figures instead of raw values of volatility:
Defining Risk
The average percentage change of bearish candles can serve as a dynamic stop-loss level.
For example, if the average bearish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 2%, a trader can set a stop-loss at 2% below their entry to account for typical market behavior.
Quantifying Reward:
The average bullish percentage change helps identify realistic profit targets.
If the average bullish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 3%, a trader can set a target at 3% above their entry to maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Dynamic Adjustments:
As the market evolves, these average percentage changes update, allowing traders to adjust their risk and reward levels in real time for better precision.
Quantitative Advantages of Percentage Change Averaging
Normalization Across Price Levels:
Percentage changes enable consistent comparison across assets with vastly different price ranges.
Enhanced Stability for Risk Assessment:
Candle-count averaging smooths out noise, offering a reliable basis for setting risk parameters like stop-losses and profit targets.
Improved Predictability:
By isolating specific candle behaviors, percentage-based metrics provide clearer signals for trend-following or mean-reversion strategies.
Advantages of BSP’s Fixed-Period Averaging
Despite being less stable, "Buying & Selling Pressure " excels in areas requiring speed and adaptability:
Fast Incentive Tracking:
Period-based averaging adapts quickly to changing market conditions, providing timely insights into shifts in buying or selling pressure.
Broad Volatility Capture:
BSP includes all candles in the defined period, capturing overall market dynamics, including sudden spikes or reversals.
Real-Time Decision Making:
Its responsiveness makes it highly suitable for momentum or breakout trading strategies.
Bottomline:
Use "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" for stable, consistent data ideal for risk assessment, particularly when defining dynamic stop-loss levels or profit targets based on average percentage changes.
Use "Buying & Selling Pressure " for its speed and adaptability in tracking real-time shifts in market incentives and capturing volatility.
GBPJPY H8 - Short SignalGBPJPY H8
We have a nice setup here yet again, with our crosshairs on that 193 handle for GBPJPY. Last weeks price movement on Friday was wild, to say the least, over the eastern session we took off 100's of points, before closing the day down towards 190 price. 600 points from top to bottom we saw, from the likes of ***JPY, this was very impressive!
With the exception of the fakeout to the upside, albeit it headline driven, we have now seen a subsequent correction, which takes us back towards that 193.000 handle, a confluence zone and an area we could look to sell.
Stops would be around 50 points at 193.500 covering recent highs, and take profit targets would be every 100 points.
KEY KeyCorp Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the KEY KeyCorp options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $14 strike price Puts with
2023-6-16 expiration date for about
$0.27 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Gradual Gold meltXAUUSD analysis:
Gold has broken the descending trend-line that was connecting the bodies of the candles on the 4H this was (also acting as a resistance) line holding price.
Another descending trend line has been issued this time wick to wick to see if we have a fighting chance on the 4H but if this one will not hold we might see price approach the next major resistance area @ 2401.93.
GRPN, THE LITTLE COUPON APP THAT COULD (EARNINGS CHART)Can it keep going? Technically, yes. I see numbers up to $40.
However, I'm posting this because I see this idea as far more likely to occur is some form.
It looks like a potential top is about to occur.
At these levels, with momentum, a drop could take price as low as $4. If not lower, down to $2.
It's hard to be bullish on this stock with a chart like this.
In other words, I'm saying, I don't know if there is more upside, and if there is, I'm okay with missing it because I'd rather not be wrong and ultimately lose money on the downside.
Mostly a question of risk vs reward.
I would ultimately be bearish overall.
I think the pink zone might see a top and I think we could see trends break all the way down to the blue zone.
Current pattern is highlighted.
XAUUSD SELLING OPPURTUNITY 💯Discover an enticing Selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
XAUUSD 90% CONFIRM ANALYSISDiscover an enticing Selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
Gold melting a little?In the final days in December gold's strength has started to weaken. Wednesday December 27th 2023 is the last high we saw gold peaking around 2088.41. A massive and consistent downtrend has come right after that with a clear formulated structure with lower-low's and lower-high's. Monday January 08th 2024 is when we saw a pull-back and momentum revitalize it's self with going stabilizing itself seeing more stride with it's price trying to gain value back to the upside. Yesterday Tuesday January 9th 2024 during New York session it's seemly lost it's momentum but we can see that Monday's New York session has made clean traffic with price to the upside which in turn will be great for pin pointing where gold will go.
*** KEY ANALYSIS ***
I'm looking for GOLD to break and CLOSE under 2023.83 on a 30M time frame. This will confirm more of a downtrend considering the clean traffic and move up from Monday New York session that had alot of volume
-- Close under my zone at 2023.83
Target 120 pts on candle break and close.
Stops: anywhere above opposite side of the zone at 2027.43
Lessons of Trading by News - MMTC - "Let it" or "Delist it" ???Time and again the stock market gets some knee jerk reaction from Investors based on some Hot News. But most news are shortlived and forgotten in forthcoming days.
One such interesting counter is MMTC - A PSU Mineral Trading Company with 89% stake with Govt of India.
Technical Analysis:
Monthly - Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern indicating a Multi-bagger return
Our initial position was at 61.55 levels and booked profit around 87-88 in just 1 month
The primary reason to book profits was due to a Hot News in October from Govt that they are going to De-list the company. The counter eroded all gains within same month and fell below our entry point. For next 2 months - there is no News about de-listing - no progress - and all the Hype settled down and now when I look at the charts - its back to its beauty. You won't even remember that something happened in Oct looking at the chart now.
The Original Tech pattern (Inv H&S) is still perfectly intact
MMTC is once again on the verge of Breaking Out the Inv H&S pattern.
It has to settle above 68 WCB for neckline BO confirmation
Further it also has to close above 72 WCB for resistance BO and further upside
CAUTION: New Entrants / Safe Players - please AVOID this counter. There is still no clarity on delisting process from Govt. Existing players hold for further gains and make most out of this until you see a significant reversal
Disclaimer:
Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions.
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NVDA: $194M Insider LiquidationNVIDIA is presenting potentially lucrative short-term trading opportunities, specifically for derivatives. A months-long ascending triangle is visible on the hourly and daily charts; a second, smaller ascending triangle is potentially forming at the time of this idea.
I believe, and am hopeful for, that the smaller ascending triangle will prove invalid and complete the double-top "M" pattern with selling pressure draining NVDA to the $430 range which falls around the respective 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, I think it would be reckless to count out a potential rebound around $470 which is where the second ascending triangle's support will be tested.
If the $430 support is reached, I believe this will be the time to enter a long call option as I suspect the asset will be retesting the $500 resistance. However, insider liquidation is a major concern especially since the total offload within the last 30 days is equal to $194.3M USD. A link to the SEC filings is posted below.
NASDAQ:NVDA
www.sec.gov
Selling Signal: GOLD Retesting Key Support AreaDiscover an enticing selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key support area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
Clean traffic downAs Gold heads down lower. We are looking for a clean range of motion to the downside. The Gold candle closed below the 1978.75 area with the candle confirming that there is more volume to the downside. Following this range. It's looking to be clean traffic going all the way down to the low of the candles bearish rejection wick at 1969.77. Price may struggle to break lower than this area but we will need another confirmation on candle close before we can verify anything to be more confident. I will be at a safe entry at the new 30m candle open at 1977.55 doing a safe scalp until 1975. The more aggressive traders can target 1970
GBPCAD 4HR Swing IdeaThe market has given me an opportunity to go long on GBPCAD.
Price had impulsively broke structure to the downside leaving behind a clear demand zone to mitigate. This move presented a selling opportunity at premium Fibonacci levels.
I have a very simplistic outlook at trading which has come after years of dedication. Simplistic is key to me so i hope this analysis has some value. Thank you.