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Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
EMA 66: The Golden EMAExponential Moving Average (EMA) area commonly used technical indicators in trading, and for good reason. They are powerful tools that can help traders identify trends, gauge momentum, and make more informed trading decisions. One EMA in particular, the EMA 66, has caught my attention and piqued my interest due to its effectiveness as a support and resistance level. "The golden EMA" is the nickname I have attributed to this EMA. In the context of trading, support and resistance are key concepts that help traders identify areas where the price of an asset may encounter buying or selling pressure. Support levels are areas where buyers have historically stepped in to prevent the price from falling further, while resistance levels are areas where sellers have historically prevented the price from rising further. The EMA 66 has proven to be a reliable support and resistance level for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in recent years. To understand how the EMA 66 acts as a support and resistance level, it's important to first understand how the EMA is calculated. The EMA is a type of moving average that places greater weight on more recent price data, which makes it more responsive to changes in price compared to a simple moving average. The formula for calculating the EMA is: EMA = (Price - EMA(previous)) x (2 / (n + 1)) + EMA(previous) In this formula, "Price" is the current price of the asset, "EMA(previous)" is the EMA value from the previous period, "n" is the number of periods used to calculate the EMA, and "2 / (n + 1)" is a smoothing factor that determines how much weight to give to the current price relative to the previous EMA value. Now, let's take a look at how the EMA 66 has acted as support and resistance for BTC in recent years. In early 2020, the price of BTC dropped sharply in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and briefly fell below the EMA 66. However, EMA 66 quickly acted as support and helped to prop up the price, which then went on to rally over the next few months. Later in 2020, the price of BTC surpassed the EMA 66 and went on a strong bull run. However, when the price eventually began to pull back, the EMA 66 once again acted as a key support level, helping to prevent the price from falling further. In early 2021, the price of BTC surged to new all-time highs, but eventually began to pull back once again. This time, however, the EMA 66 failed to act as support and the price dropped sharply below this level. This highlights an important point As with any technical indicator, it's impossible to predict with certainty how EMA 66 will behave in future price movements. However, given its historical significance as a support and resistance level for BTC, it's certainly possible that we could see the EMA 66 in action during the next "bull run" of 2023. I will be closely watching the behavior of BTC in relation to EMA 66. Whether or not the EMA 66 continues to prove effective in the coming years remains to be seen. BINANCEUS:BTCUSD
by MburuAntony
2
"Sell in May and go away": last three years indicate downturnThe trend of last May's highs indicate that this year's May downturn might be dramatic. The May highs in the ongoing downtrend would decline for three years in a row if the white trend line is maintained. The very close August heights set a second resistance to break even if the white trend line is broken. Macro-economics and moving averages indicate a downturn instead, following more or less a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern. The adage "sell in may and go away" indicates a generally lower-performing stock market in the summer months between May and October, but, statistically, there is no proof for that. This analysis holds up only in the ongoing downtrend, but the antagonal scenario clearly is the latest resistance around 260, confirmed already two times on the MA200 line.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Johnny_TV
1
📈Ready for altcoins to move up?📉CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Hello traders, I hope you have had a profitable week.✋ First, pay attention to the previous analysis of the Bitcoin Dominance Index.👌 The Bitcoin Dominance Index is approaching the important level of 48.48. Despite the possibility of being rejected below this level, if the price of Bitcoin stays at a certain level or grows, the altcoins in the market can experience an upward movement of 20-40%. Ethereum price targets were identified in a separate analysis. Please share ideas and leave a comment, let me know what's your idea. CrazyS
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CrazyS
4
Five Reasons and Six Ways to Invest in Gold"Gold is money. Everything else is credit.", said John Pierpont Morgan. When borrowers default, markets collapse and banks run into crisis, gold prices skyrocket. Gold is trading at a 12-month high on March 18th. Gold has been valued for thousands of years. Gold has unique properties. It has been enchanting women and men since humans set foot on the planet. Polycrisis. That aptly describes the current times. The US regional bank crisis haunts markets. Credit Suisse - the bank to the wealthiest was so frail that Swiss National Bank had to step in to provide liquidity backstop. Regulators worked over the weekend to broker an acquisition by UBS to prevent a banking crisis from spreading. Inflation is raging hot at levels unseen in 40+ years. Compounding Chair Powell's quagmire, the US Fed has been forced to switch from QT to QE by providing support to its regional banks from collapsing under crisis of confidence. Geo-politics remains tricky. In times of crisis, investors seek flight to safety. Safest of all assets since civilisation began has been gold. This educational piece provides an overview of (a) physical gold market dynamics, (b) largest holders of gold reserves, and (c) gold price behaviour against other asset classes. It also describes five primary reasons for investing in gold, contrasts six methods of doing so, and highlights the downsides of holding gold. PHYSICAL GOLD DYNAMICS Gold performs multiple functions. It is a currency to some. Store of wealth to others. It is an industrial metal used in consumer electronics. The rich love gold in clothing and food. A bird's eye view of physical gold can be summarily described in three parts: 1. Consumers : Gold is used in consumer electronics due to its high conductivity and low corrosive properties. Gold used as industrial metal represents 6%-8% of total demand. Unsurprisingly, >50% of global gold demand is for jewellery. Jewellery is a multi-tasker. It meets aesthetic goals, serves as a status symbol while also being a form of investment. 2. Gold Reserves : Central banks hold gold as reserves. They are the most significant holders of gold. The haven nature of gold compels central banks to increase holdings during economic uncertainty, high inflation, or currency devaluation. Central Banks added >382 tonnes to their reserves in 2022. 3. Producers : Gold mining is a cyclical industry. Mining output has been in decline over the past decade as major gold producers shift to mining minerals and other metals like copper with the proliferation of lithium-ion batteries in EVs. Gold mining took a huge output hit during the pandemic and may not recover any time soon as capital expenditure into new gold mines is limited. GOLD RESERVES - THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS According to the World Gold Council, as of end 2022, central banks in Western European (11.8k tons) have the largest gold reserves followed by North Americans (8.1k tons), Central & Eastern Europeans (3.5k tons), and East Asians (3.4k tons). Last year, central banks of Turkey, China, Egypt, Qatar, and Uzbekistan were the largest buyers of gold. FIVE REASONS WHY GOLD SHOULD BE IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Gold is a resilient store of wealth, provides meaningful portfolio diversification, has limited price volatility, extends benefits of hedge against inflation & currency debasement, and is limited in supply. 1. Resilient Store of Wealth Gold outperforms equities during periods of economic instability. Due to its material properties and scarcity, it can even become more valuable during such periods as investors seek shelter in classic risk-off assets such as gold. 2. Portfolio Diversification Gold can have both positive and negative correlation with other asset classes during different periods. This makes it an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. 3. Limited Volatility Due to its large market size and diverse supply origins, gold is less volatile than equities and other asset classes making it a safer asset class for investors. 4. Inflation Hedge Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge. Which means that it can maintain its value or appreciate during periods of high inflation due to its scarcity and safety. However, in some cases monetary policy changes like interest rate hikes may make gold a less attractive investment compared to treasury yields during inflationary periods. 5. Limited in supply Gold is a finite resource, that too, one of the rarest precious metals in the world. Moreover, more than 200,000 tonnes of gold have already been dug up. This represents more than half of the total reserves. The gold that is yet to be mined is much more difficult to extract economically. Scarcity creates rarity, which in turn drives the value of the existing gold higher. Many governments, banks, and people also use gold as a long-term investment, which means a huge portion of the gold supply is taken out of circulation, shrinking available supply even more. SIX WAYS OF INVESTING IN GOLD There are multiple ways of investing in gold. Six primary ones are: 1. Physical Gold : Gold can be bought and stored in the form of jewellery or gold bars. Costs of storage, insurance and making charges can be substantial and also inconvenient. Investing in physical gold is not optimal for reasons of poor convenience and higher transaction costs. 2. Gold ETF : Exposure to gold can also be acquired through buying exchange traded funds (ETF) backed by physical gold. There are multiple ETFs that track physical gold prices. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was the pioneer and began trading in 2004. It has an expense ratio of 0.4% and tracks gold bullion prices. GLD holds both physical gold bullion and cash. GLD provides a liquid lower-cost method to buy and hold gold. Gold can be bought and sold during the trading day at market price. Investors must pay heed to taxation as gains from ETFs in some jurisdictions can be treated differently compared to other forms of gold. 3. Gold Futures : CME’s COMEX Gold futures is the world’s most liquid derivatives which enables capital efficient exposure to Gold. With round the clock liquidity, tight bid-ask spread and benefits of a cleared contract, investing through COMEX Gold futures is widely popular. Each lot of COMEX Gold Futures provides exposure to 100 oz of Gold. Enabling affordable access to investors and to facilitate accurate granular hedging, CME also offers Micro Gold Futures. Each lot of Micro Gold contract provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold. 4. Gold Options : CME also offers options on Gold Futures. Gold options is a useful investing and hedging tool. Using options, investors can lock in unlimited upside potential of price moves while limiting the adverse impact of downside price moves. 5. Shares of Gold Producers : Gold mining is an international business. Gold is mined on every continent except Antarctica. Top gold miners include Newmont (USA), Barrick (Canada), Anglogold Ashanti (South Africa), Kinross (Canada), Gold Fields (South Africa), Newcrest (Australia), Agnica Eagle (Canada), Polyus (Russia), Polymetal (Russia), and Harmony (South Africa). As is evident from the chart above, investing in gold miners for exposure to gold is a poor proxy as most of them have underperformed relative to gold prices. Furthermore, FX exposures must be hedged separately for some stocks which trade in emerging markets. In summary, securing gold exposure through miners is not optimal relative to other alternatives. 6. Gold CFDs : CFDs also known as contract for differences allows for synthetic access to the price of spot gold. These CFDs are OTC derivatives contracts which carry non-trivial counterparty risk with investors being exposed to the credit risk of the CFD provider. The table below summarises the merits of various gold investment instruments across key investment attributes. GOLD TOO HAS ITS DOWNSIDES Gold is a non-yielding asset. Shares of profitable companies pay dividends. Holding debt earns interest. Real estate delivers rents. But gold provides zero yield. For every problem, innovation in markets provides a solution. In a future paper, Mint Finance will demonstrate how gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. Rising interest rates are headwinds to gold. As rates on treasury, bonds and deposits rise, investors rotate their money out of gold and into yield generating assets. Not only is gold non-yielding, but the returns also fade into insignificance relative to gains from innovation. In times of crisis, gold is a great hedge. However, while positioning portfolios for the long term, investors must astutely balance between safety versus growth. GOLD RETURNS IN RELATION TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES 1. US Equities and Emerging Markets Gold outperforms equities during periods of crisis. During equity bull runs, gold underperforms equities. Cumulatively, over the last 20 years, Gold has outperformed Dow Jones, S&P 500, and MSCI Emerging Markets. Only Nasdaq, which represents tech, innovation and growth has surpassed gold returns. 2. Treasuries with 2-Year and 10-Year Maturities Unsurprisingly, when sovereign risks rise and treasury yields fall to zero, gold shines. Between two non-yielding assets, investors prefer to take shelter in gold as a preferred haven. However, when rates rise, investors rotate out of gold and into treasuries. 3. Crude Oil, Copper, and Silver Over the last two decades, Gold has outperformed crude oil, copper, and silver. 4. Dollar Index, Bitcoin and Ethereum While US Dollar and gold are both global reserves, gold has outperformed the Dollar Index which is the value of the USD against a basket of six international currencies. However, relative to bitcoin and ethereum, gold pales into insignificance. Bitcoin is perceived as millennial gold and ethereum is the millennial oil. Both assets have obliterated gold in terms of price returns. 5. Major Currencies Over the last 3 years, as markets emerged out of the pandemic, gold has outperformed all the major currencies. Yen, under the influence of Governor Kuroda’s liberal QE program, has depreciated 63% against gold. Indian Rupee has deflated 47% while Euro and Sterling have shed 38% and 32% against gold. The US Dollar, Chinese Renminbi, and Aussie Dollar have depreciated 31%, 29% and 20% against gold, respectively. Key Takeaways Gold is money. Everything else is credit. Gold glows in crisis. It is a knight in shining armour for investors. Gold is the only asset which exhibits negative correlation. These are times of polycrisis. As investors seek flight to safety from banks even, gold is the safest among the few remaining alternatives. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable diversification within a portfolio, exhibits much lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge albeit with less than a perfect record. Clients can invest in gold in multiple ways. Gold futures is the most convenient and optimal among the six alternatives. Gold has its downsides. It is a non-yielding asset and performs dismally against innovation and growth. Except for Nasdaq, bitcoin and ethereum, gold has outperformed currency majors, equity indices, US treasury, and commodities. In a future paper, Mint Finance will explore ways in which gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
33
GBPUSD - Green April upon Us (Seasonality) ?Historical data suggests GBPUSD has certain seasonal tendencies within it's calendar year, April being the best in terms of its strength and August being the weakest. Current economic situations and amidst these SVB collapse, rising inflation and expected recession suggests difficult days ahead for DXY. When we look at the DXY it loosing strength which also suggests GBPUSD has the potential to grow in April. As per analysis suggests Looking at last 20 years data, 85% of the time April had green monthly closings with last ten years average returns in April were 0.42%. Mostly this rally starts from second half of march and if we look at the current price action, we have many bullish signs which suggest this rally has already begun. Break out from the falling wedge , higher highs and higher lows , ABCD pattern (if it breaks 1.22040 ). Using the confluence of wedge breakout and ABCD pattern, our projection for first profit level is 1.2400 in coming week. And if trend continues (suggested by seasonal behaviour) and it breaks out of resistance zone, we could use the last 10 years average return as the projection for next target (0.42%) which would be around 1.2500 (near 1.618 fib level as well). Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Past performance does not diminish the risk expectancy of any strategy. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only, so do proper risk management if you plan to use this information
Long
by waleedcancerion
1
CAKE Shorts, Unlimited supply tokenPancakeSwap is a decentralized cryptocurrency marketplace that runs on Binance's BEP-20 network. PancakeSwap is the largest decentralized marketplace on the BEP-20 network. Many crypto asset projects use pancakeswap as their primary option to list their tokens for listing and add liquidity. However, the weakness of this token is that the supply is not limited, so that the supply circulating in the future will be more and more. Currently CAKE is in the symmetrical triangle area and no breakout has been confirmed. However, CAKE's move has bounced off the resistance line at $3.8 and is about to try to test its support line at $3.6. potential decline of 5.6% that will occur. For now it's better to wait and see
BINANCE:CAKEUSDShort
by Cozybanana78
4
Month April IPDA Range | DXY | EURUSD | GBPUSDIPDA Range looks back 20-40-60 to define Liquidity Reference Points (Old Highs/Lows and Imbalances). DXY is showing Bearish Price Action with BEARISH APRIL SEASONALITY, TARGETING 20 & 60 DAY LOW ~ 102 AND 100.8. EURUSD is showing Bullish Price Action with BULLISH APRIL SEASONALITY, TARGETING 20 & 60 DAY HIGH ~ 1.103. GBPUSD is showing Bullish Price Action with BULLISH APRIL SEASONALITY, TARGETING 20 & 60 DAY HIGH ~ 1.24500. LOOK FOR EACH PAIR SEASONALITY, COMBINE IT WITH MONTH AND WEEK HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING TIME AND ECONOMIC CALENDAR TO DEFINE YOUR HIGHEST PROBABLE TRADING DAYS. Have a nice April :)
by Trader_Ptr
EUR USD - Technical print G'day, Master Key for zones Black = Yearly Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video. Daily trading range Weekly chart Monthly chart Quarterly chart Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
GBPUSD AMD FORMATIONThe entirety of Q1(January-March) as seen in the chart was held in a consolidation Now, we are about to enter into a new week, month and also a new Quarter. We should anticipate longs that would manipulate it's way into the Buyside Liquidity and also possibly into the FVG. Therefore, week 1 for month of April might consolidate and week 2 would push price towards the manipulation phase of the Quarter After that would lead to a distribution that would most likely occur in the 3rd Quarter of the year Mix all this with the Seasonality tendencies of GPUSD and see that by seasonality, GBPUSD has the tendency to rally
by ifeanyichukwu_E