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Seasonality

Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish) I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade. Range day - yes To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind. Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg. I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA. Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins. Objectives of Halving Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation. Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BraveNewCoin Liquid index Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors: Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year. Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event. Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value. The Upcoming Halving in April 2024 The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving. Price Predictions: While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment: Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024 Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025 Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks Potential Correction: While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving: JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000 Implications for Miners With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve: Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market. Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume. Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Additional Notes: The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process. Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making. The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Update plan gold 2024- 2025Update plan gold 2024- 2025 Gold's daily line has been broken, but we should not rush to sell gold right now because it is facing quite strong demand. I believe that this factor will help gold recover to 2390-2400, then we will sell off gold at higher prices. Normally, gold will peak in early May, this we need to consider further in the case of a sweep. old peak and create a new peak, but I think the probability is not high with the current price structure, unless affected by the geopolitical situation. If everything goes well, we will sell off gold until the end of September and collect goods there to buy until next year. An idea similar to this one but on a weekly basis. Good Lucky !!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by EricGoldHunter
1
Seasonal trend in the growth of coffee pricesLet's talk about coffee because coffee lovers understand how important it is in daily life. In the business world, it's widely recognized that no meeting or deal is complete without at least one cup of coffee (or even more). ☕️ Now, let's focus on coffee futures. 📰 Technical analysis presents an interesting perspective for potential growth. The price is approaching a significant support level around $1.4 and is once again starting to rise. ☄️ During this uptrend, it successfully breaches key resistance levels in the vicinity of $1.5, creating a "repositioning" pattern for those considering buying. It seems like coffee season has arrived! ☀️ Right now, we're interested in the unclosed bullish gap at the level of $1.662-$1.6485. On the daily chart, there's an attempt to test the previous month's highest price, which is crucial for further growth. The scenario of closing the gap may come into play if the price falls to the order block levels within $1.6-$1.44, from which long-term purchases can be considered until the highest price is reached above the $2.0-$2.6 level. If a pullback occurs to the 1.2-1.3 zone, it may present an opportunity for buying with the potential for a 2-3 rise. In such a case, there's a high probability of subsequent upward movement after the pullback. ☕️ If you're interested in coffee and commodities futures analysis, feel free to hit the 🔥 button, and we can continue the discussion. ☕️📈
VANTAGE:COFFEELong
by Zk24
Bitcoin Cycles and Current Cycle Peak EstimationMy analysis of previous bitcoin cycles and prediction of current cycle peak based on that analysis. The first cycle was shorter than the others, therefore I had to interpolate from the 2nd and 3rd cycles. This analysis gives a rough prediction of 162.000 USD bitcoin price at October 2025. That gives us +100K from where it currently sits at and a possible altcoin season similar to prior cycles. Let's see how it turns out. It is better to zoom into each cycle to see the percentages of peak to bottom, bottom to next peak and peak to next peak.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by reoxyus
Williams%Range Moving Average alerts indicator for FOREX tradinAllTheUpsTheresAlwaysDowns" ☆ATUTAD☆ // Williams%Range Moving Average alerts indicator for FOREX trading. This indicator is provided for you to use it as agreat plot next to the knowledge and strategy you may have already created. The soul ideal is the 40 period williams % range indicator with overbought level at -20 , oversold at -80 and buy range above the -50 and sell range below. In the use of a wpr on your trading chart its most defitnatly that you will find divergences formed when the wpr has crossed above, been above, crossed below and above with a lower high reached. Indicating such "divergence" for an overbought momentum in "confluences" meaning it is matching with the price movement on the main chart having a higher reach than it just was candles back. This same thought proces and visual sighting occurs when the wpr has and after the crossing below the oversold at -80. *While in some hours of days there may not form a divergance but a retest or trendreversal. The indicator gives yellow triangles above the candle bar for overbought momentems and Blue trianges below at oversolds. *Be free to fine tune your period vision with its respective oversold and overbought action. The -50 will most often gives the trend direction by cause of crossing above "bullish trend. Bearish trend" for crossing below. Whit this logic a moving average trend is visual and triangles are formed above or below the candle bars signaling the current trend. An 2nd moving average is for use as extra conformation of a trend direction or to the short term reversals. Also adding value to the background color but in confluences of the oversold signals. There are labels for the session open and ending without the names but certainly for; Tokyo.@0200-1000 London.@0600-1700 New York.@1400-2300 ((Amsterdam UTC+2 time)) and the current bar of the particular session start or end haves a diffrent visual to. The use of the 4 alerts; buyCALL sellCALL OVERbought OVERsold is provided with message indicating timechart(for you to fill in M..), the price value and time. *The any alert() function call provides alerts for the session start/end. Overall, one great indicator.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ATU_TAD
Seasonal analyses Price could be bullish until the elections or near and after. Looking at the price of gold which decline in the next few and no interest rate hikes expected during this could mean that the dollar that could gain in value. Global Green Policies that are aimed to protect the world could impact the price of energies minerals and commodities therefore strengthen the dollar. The dollar could also strengthen because the recent IPO's in the stock exchange gaining year on year.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by KhoraCapital
When the altseason begins?After the recent falls, the 55%-54% range is the key support. When this level is reached, there is a chance that the price will start to rise again to hit those who took the risk and invested all their funds during the last two falls. This is where we plan to increase our positions with the remaining free liquidity. Should the dominance steadily strengthen below this zone, it will serve as a significant positive indicator for the start of the altseason. Even with current positions, by the end of the season the yields could be quite amazing.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by TSFC
2
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike. Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption. Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics. RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year. Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT. Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices. USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside. USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area. CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule. USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases. USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated. ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”. While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol. CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium. MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4). Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures. To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently. A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024. This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends. • Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April) • Target: 1.076 • Stop Loss: 1.052 • Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100)) • Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional) • Reward to Risk: 1.44x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZCH2025
by mintdotfinance
8
Gold to target previous month lowsJanuary as a month was a bag of choppy price action (maybe long term consolidaton, who knows) as it traded within the range of December high and low. Same being the case with DXY, only difference DXY showcased aggressive behaviour to trade higher, after it found support on 100.6. Beginning Feb, DXY has taken out liquidity from January and December Highs. Factors influencing this move is based on - Fed decision to keep the same rates - It's evident Fed is would like to observe the Q1 data before the rates can be lowered, by April it should be clear when to expect Fed to lower the rates, or still keep it unchanged. - Positive news for DXY late January/Early Feb. Fed's decision to keep the same rates may not have strengthed Dollar, but it did not weaken it as well, and now with new highs forming, the bullishness in DXY might target HH. Suppported by bond yield which are targeting higher yields as well. On the other side, gold is still within the range of December and January, still to break either low or highs. But with DXY's move to trade higher, Gold must feel the pressure to trade lower and target liquidity at monthly lows.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Spyda_Morpheus
Strategic Trading Tips Before the Bitcoin HalvingAs the market faces economic challenges, Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P ) and the S&P 500 ( TVC:SPX ) are showing signs of a potential correction after significant recent gains over the last 12 months. This shift is prompting investors to reassess and strategically reallocate their assets. In this environment, PAX Gold ( BYBIT:PAXGUSDT.P ), a digital asset backed by gold, is emerging as an increasingly attractive investment option due to its stability during uncertain times. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) is indicating a shift towards more stable assets, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. Strategic Recommendations for Bybit Traders Add PAXGUSDT to Your Portfolio: Leveraging the stability of gold-backed assets such as PAXG can provide a hedge against the volatility observed in both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. Reduce Altcoin Exposure: Reducing your altcoin holdings can help mitigate risk, especially considering their tendency to experience amplified downward movements during Bitcoin corrections. However, for those comfortable with risk, there may be an opportunity to buy in at lower prices, potentially yielding significant gains if the market rebounds. Buy BTC at Support Levels: Considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which may mitigate some of the potential downtrends by reducing the supply of new coins, buying BTC at current lower levels could be advantageous if the price increases post-halving. Leverage USD Strength: With the US dollar growing stronger, it’s strategic to maintain or increase your cash positions. This could involve making new deposits, taking profits, or utilizing Bybit Earn products to take advantage of market changes. Consider Options: Instead of just holding spot or trading perpetual contracts, also consider trading options to manage risk while benefiting from market exposure. Reassess Risk of Existing Positions: If you're holding underwater leveraged positions, it may be a good time to reassess your overall risk and adjust your position size or margin accordingly to better withstand any potential further downward movements until a reversal occurs. These strategies are designed to balance risk management with the potential for returns, adapting to a market that is increasingly shifting towards more conservative investment approaches. Remember, trading cryptocurrencies, especially with leverage, carries significant risks. Employ solid risk management practices to protect your investments.
by Bybit
1