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Seasonality-trading

SPY - short squeeze - or more down?Bear Market trend on SPY looking to continue, but could we get another short squeeze similar to the set up leading to the brief Sept squeeze in 2022? Based upon regression trend analysis and general market strength or lack there of, I don't think we see much of a squeeze for SPY here...will be adding to short positions on these modest price increases that appear to be more related to limited stock buy backs and some year end tape painting. More down on deck IMO. In terms of seasonality - January 2022 was weak and I expect pretty much the same in 2023 - or worse. Will reassess if we gat a SPY close above 387. NFA.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Akksujean
1
S&P HIGHER IN DEC WHILE USD WEAK + COT BULLISH- Seasonal: S&P is supposed to be strong in DEC - Seasonal: USD is supposed to be weak in DEC - Pattern: Q4 created a W + 1st push, 2nd push is to be expected after stophunt - Technical: Bullish break of Market Structure on the Daily in OCT - Efficiency: D1 overlapping Gaps + Imbalances offer support around 3900 and 4000 - S&D: Weekly Supply-zone at 4500 with Imbalances below it - COT: Asset Manangers accumulate longs and distribute shorts since OCT COT + SEASONALLITY VISUALISED: images2.imgbox.com
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by xtrader1
Is BTC heavily affect by Mars? Where is the potential bottomIn 2021, BTC reach it's all time thigh range between $27401- $69198.7. Can we predict the the support and resistance based of Astrology? To convert price to astrology angle: - Interval = (69198.7 - 27401) / 360 = 116.1 - Price angle = 69198.7 / 116.1 = 596' => (596 - 360) = 236' On 10/11/2021 at all time high both Mars and Mercury were on 217' and they are the closest planets to 236'. This makes both of them the candidate for the rise and fall of 2022. I decided to choose Mars for this study as Mercury is a more neutral planet. Chart was based off 3rd and 4th Harmonics of Mars transit at major or minor swing day after season pivot. In the chart 3rd harmonics are represented by the green lines, 4th harmonics the red line. Orange lines are both 3rd and 4th harmonics The transits are converted to price level based off the angle x interval. So far BTC price action respect these support and resistance levels The next few level down are: 15906 14745.3 14745.3 Question is have we reach the bottom? I think only Master Gann can answer that question.
by leokc
EURUSD(liquidity proxy)if BO parity, $ falls, gold,equity rallyEURUSD may be used as a liquidity proxy. It has been falling for a long time in a big down channel & Is now bouncing right at the dotted median line. (4Q is historically bullish going into new year specially on midterm election years, where markets bottom in late October) Watch closely if EURUSD will break above parity 1:1 again in a big move. Then most probably that is where the 4Q rally shall start extending to 1Q2023. I still believe there is still a wave 5 down for the C wave of the big ABC correction from ATH. In 2Q2023, ABC may end in a double bottom near the dotted median or even much lower to the lower channel in case of a recession, which is more probable in Europe than in the US. After ABC completes sometime before end of recession. Equities will rally to the start of a new EW cycle. Not trading advice
Long
by xtremerider8
XAUUSD SELLXAUUSD currently has a score of -7, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the Gold has a long percentage of 59.04%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 72%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the Gold. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. The index saw lower GDP growth, inflation was higher than the previous report, unemployment was lower this month, and interest rates are lower than the last time.
XShort
by Jury_P
AUDCHF SELLAUDCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.84%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the CHF. Taking a look atAUDCHF, we see that retail traders are 88% long, and 12% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the AUD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the AUD
AShort
by Jury_P
USDCHF BUYUSDCHF currently has a score of +4, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 72%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look atUSDCHF, we see that retail traders are 33% long, and 67% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCHF gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the USD
ULong
by Jury_P
1
NZDCHF SELLNZDCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 32.46%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the CHF. Taking a look atNZDCHF, we see that retail traders are 95% long, and 5% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the NZD
NShort
by Jury_P
CADCHF SELLCADCHF currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCAD has a long percentage of 51.1%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the CAD. Taking a look atCADCHF, we see that retail traders are 94% long, and 6% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCADCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CAD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CAD
CShort
by Jury_P