Bullish XRP: Adaptive RSI & Block Support Fuel Upswing PotentialCOINBASE:XRPUSD is showing promising signs of a potential upswing, driven by a bullish flip in the Adaptive RSI on the 15-minute chart, reinforced by strong order block support above $2 and confluence from other technical indicators.
Technical Analysis:
Adaptive RSI (15-Minute): The Adaptive RSI has recently transitioned from bearish to bullish on the 15-minute chart, indicating increasing buying pressure and a potential shift in momentum. This adaptive version of the traditional RSI is designed to adjust to changing market conditions, making it a potentially more reliable indicator of momentum shifts.
ICT Killzones (Worldwide Markets): The ICT Killzones, analyzed on the worldwide market timeframe, suggest that XRPUSD may be approaching an area where volume could increase, potentially leading to a rapid move. This aligns with the bullish signal from the Adaptive RSI and adds to the potential for a quick surge in price. However, it's important to be aware that this also increases the risk of a sudden overbought condition.
Supertrend Signals (AI Aggregator): The Supertrend indicator, functioning as an AI aggregator, is currently bullish.
Smart Money Concepts (Order Blocks Above $2): A key factor supporting this bullish outlook is the presence of strong order block support above the $2 psychological level. This suggests that institutional buyers or "smart money" have been accumulating XRP in this area, creating a solid foundation for a potential upward move.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter a long position now that the Adaptive RSI has flipped bullish on the 10-minute chart.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the recent swing low or a key support level identified by your indicators on the 15-minute chart, and consider placing it below the identified order block support for added security.
Take-Profit: Identify potential take-profit targets based on previous resistance levels or areas of potential selling pressure indicated on the 15-minute timeframe. Be mindful of the potential for a quick overbought condition, and consider taking profits strategically as the price rises.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you could lose money. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Scalping
Price Oscilattor with Entry and ExitPrice Oscillator Trend Reversal Strategy
Source: commodity.com -oscillator/
Indicators:
Price Oscillator (PO): Calculated as the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):
Short EMA (Fast Period): 9 days
Long EMA (Slow Period): 18 days
Thresholds:
• Overbought Level: PO >+2
•Oversold Level: PO <-2
Entry Conditions
Buy Entry (Long Position):
•PO crosses above the zero line from below (bullish crossover).
• OR PO moves into the oversold region (<-2) and starts to increase, indicating a potential reversal.
Sell Entry (Short Position):
• PO crosses below the zero line from above (bearish crossover).
• OR PO moves into the overbought region (>+2) starts to decrease, indicating a potential reversal.
Exit Conditions
Exit Long:
•PO crosses back below zero line.
Exit Short:
•PO crosses above 0 line.
AAVE Scalping Strategy Recommendation Amid High 1. Restate the Key Data Points
Action: HOLD_BUY (indicating a bullish stance).
Stop Loss: $320.00.
Take Profit: $350.00.
Entry Price: $328.07.
Current Price: $336.64.
Exit Point: $336.64.
BTC Correlation: -0.85 (strong negative correlation).
Confidence Level: 75%.
2. Short-Term Forecast
Price Momentum:
Since the current price is above $336, the market appears to be trending in favor of the long position.
The thesis suggests holding the position (HOLD_BUY), expecting the price to continue rising toward $350.
Risk Analysis:
Downside is capped at the stop-loss of $320.
If price volatility remains moderate, the chance of being stopped out near $320 is reduced.
Impact of Negative Correlation with BTC:
If Bitcoin falls, this asset might rise (given the negative correlation).
If Bitcoin rallies, watch for potential downward pressure on the current position.
3. Medium-Term Outlook
Possible Consolidation Around $336–$340:
Price may hover in a narrow range before breaking toward $350 or dipping back to the $328–$330 region.
Adjusting Stop-Loss:
If the price stabilizes above $336.64, a slight upward adjustment of the stop-loss (to slightly above $328) could secure more of the unrealized profit.
Confidence Level at 75%:
Overall prospects favor continued upward movement.
Reassess rapidly if there is a major shift in market sentiment or BTC correlation.
4. Conclusion & Prediction
Likely Outcome:
Continued bullish movement toward the $350 take-profit target.
If the market remains stable and BTC correlation continues as is, reaching $350 is plausible.
Main Risk:
A sudden BTC price surge (inverse correlation could trigger negative movement for this asset).
Maintain vigilance around key market announcements or unexpected volatility.
Actionable Summary:
Hold the current long position with a view toward $350.
Monitor correlation events closely—sharp BTC moves can flip the trade’s direction.
Protect profits by adjusting stop-loss if the price solidifies above $336.64.
Final Predictive Note
Based on the data and the 75% confidence, the short-to-medium term prediction is a gradual climb toward the $350 level, barring any sudden volatility spikes or drastic BTC movements.
H_1 SCENARIOThe current analysis for XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) suggests a mixed outlook influenced by technical and geopolitical factors
The current analysis for XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) suggests a mixed outlook influenced by technical and geopolitical factors combined with a positive RSI trend, suggests a potential continuation toward higher levels like $2,668 if the bullish sentiment persists
On shorter timeframes, consolidation is observed near $2,640, with potential bearish movement if the resistance levels hold. A pullback to previous levels like $2,620 could act as a pivot for further trend assessment
Immediate resistance is noted around $2,668, while support lies near $2,620. Breaking either of these levels could dictate the next directional move
Prediction: In the near term, XAU/USD appears likely to continue testing resistance levels. If the bullish momentum holds, a rise to approximately $2,660-$2,670 could occur. Conversely, failing to maintain current levels may lead to a retracement toward $2,620.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this analysis should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a professional for trading decisions.
Bullish channel in to Imbalance (GOLD)price doesn't look great today, but I see a potential setup to go long. I need to see the price break above the 1-minute lower-high (LH) swing level. Once that happens, I can look for a Fair Value Gap (FVG), imbalance, or other indicators. I will only take a trade after the price retraces to a FVG, imbalance, or order block, and I will look for a bullish momentum candle in those areas of interest.
ICT Long setup session trade, NOT swing trade NZDUSD👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in
NZDUSD for session trade (a couple of Hours)
Here is a session trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size)
Please refer to the details Stop loss, Buy Zone,open for take profit.
Next Long entry after retracement in any session.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
xauusd Bullish rejectionAnalysis:
Zero Lag Trend & Fibonacci Strategy:
The trend must be aligned with the Zero Lag Trend Indicator as described in the script, which shows bearish momentum on 5 and 15-minute timeframes and bullish on higher timeframes like 60 minutes and 4 hours.
Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 0.5, 0.618) must guide entries or pullback setups.
Liquidity and FU Candles:
Liquidity zones are critical. The large wicks above previous swing highs are potential liquidity grabs, a sign of institutional moves.
Look for FU candles where price spikes and then reverses sharply, indicating manipulation and institutional positioning.
Imbalances:
Unfilled imbalances (areas where price moved strongly in one direction without retests) are likely to act as magnets for price action.
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone:
Look for an entry near 2623-2624 (highlighted yellow zone on the chart).
This area is supported by previous demand and coincides with the Fibonacci retracement levels (likely around 0.618).
Stop Loss (SL):
Place the SL below 2616 - 2620, which is the most recent low and below the potential liquidity grab.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 2633, aligning with the high of the recent bearish imbalance area.
TP2: 2637, the next key Fibonacci level and near a potential liquidity cluster.
Risk-Reward:
Aim for a 1:3 or higher risk-to-reward ratio, consistent with institutional trading principles.
#BTC #Bitcoin #SS2 #Short #Long #Setup 1+2 #Eddy#BTC #Bitcoin #SS2 #Short #Long #Setup 1+2 #Eddy
Welcome to my Bitcoin Scalping Season 2
In the first season of Bitcoin scalping, I was at your service with 15 setups.
This Setups are based on a combination of different styles and based on my personal strategy.
Please don't forget to get entry approval and risk and capital management based on your own strategy.
((This setup has nothing to do with the launch of Big Short and that setup and analysis is valid.))
My Bitcoin Big Short Setup :
Gold - 15 min ( Buy Scalping After Break 2671 ) Tp 250 PIP 💎 Gold
Time Frame : 15min Chart
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🔻 Type :intraday
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2671 Area
———————————
☑️Great opportunity now
Please check the drawing carefully and all the reasons for entry and exit are shown in the analysis
If the analysis does not agree with you, please do not take it
This is a personal vision that reflects my practical way
good luck for everybody
And we strive to provide the best opportunities and develop your money
Please apply good capital management
XAGUSD LONG-ScalpingThis is a high-risk trade setup. While I believe silver has more room for a rally, I expect it may need a significant drop first—that's what my instincts say. However, based on the charts, I’ve decided to go long as the price action has been resilient and seems poised to recover from yesterday's bearish whipsaw candle. Reminder: this is a high-risk trade with 0.50% capital at risk.
Grab Your XAUUSD Scalping Chance!Market Analysis Summary:
Buy Opportunity: Targeting the 2750 zone from the 2730-27 level.
Market Structure: Overall bullish trend, indicating potential upward movement.
Short-Term Caution: Formation of lower lows may lead to a sell-off down to 2690.
Upcoming Events: NFP report is on the horizon, which could introduce market volatility.
Key Points to Consider:
Monitor the 2730-27 zone for entry signals.
Watch for price action around 2690 for potential reversals.
Be prepared for fluctuations around the NFP release.
Stay informed and adjust your strategies accordingly!
USTD.D updateThis is USDT.D, a reverse indication to how BTC will perform based on money flow concepts. It looks like USDT.D is starting to form a bullish harmonic pattern and if it does and plays out, BTC will dump. Now only that, the PRZ (potential reversal zone) on the harmonic pattern has weight being based on both yearly VWAP as well as a trend line that is based on Fib levels. Therefore, I am looking for quick short scalps today as I believe a retrace is coming.
Analysis can always be wrong based on these, so no matter what or how much you trust me, trade safely and have back up plans! @Nate Alert
BTC/USDT.P UpdateI know you guys are excited about the bull action that finally came after a long wait, but this is where things can get volatile due to manipulation. Remember, if the price action is this obvious all the time, everyone would have been billionaires lol.
Always keep an eye behind you and play on both sides of the market is the best way to go. With that said, we actually did not have a daily candle close "above" the previous major swing high, that is also what I considered as the CHOCH for the bullish trend change. I would be very interested to see if we can give it another attempt today and finally close above that major swing level at 70078. If we close above it on the daily candle, I'll be more bullish, until then, I expect pull backs to grab more liquidity. If it does dump, I'll be ready to accumulate more into my long positions.
Trade safely guys! @Nate Alert
PS** congrats to all the wins from last night's stream, glad to see so many of you making money!
BTC/USDT.P UpdateLooks like we were able to get the 382 reaction we were looking for. Congrats to those who took short and profited at that level. This current price action suggests that we are now back on track for a new higher high.
If you are building a long position, you can start layering in your longs as each BOS and retrace happens.
Trade safely
Swing vs. Scalping: Who Really Wins?In the world of trading, data from industry sources often paints a picture that can be misleading for individual traders. Brokers and trading platforms promote high success rates, particularly for more frequent traders like scalpers, but the reality is often far more complex. In this post, we'll break down some of the numbers presented by industry sources and contrast them with independent research to give you a clearer perspective.
Industry-Sourced Success Rates
According to various industry sources, here’s what the reported success rates look like:
Scalper (Under 5-minute operator):
Success Rate: 50-70%
Reasoning:
High trade frequency.
Small price movements.
Greater liquidity.
Short-term trend strategies.
Swing Trader:
Success Rate: 30-50%
Reasoning:
Lower trade frequency.
Larger price movements.
Greater exposure to risk.
Medium to long-term trend strategies.
At first glance, it seems like scalping offers a better chance of success. More frequent trades, combined with the liquidity of short-term moves, are presented as reasons why scalpers may be more successful. But should you trust these numbers at face value?
Conflicts of Interest in Industry Data
These industry-reported numbers may not be as reliable as they seem. Several potential conflicts of interest come into play when brokers and trading platforms promote certain types of trading:
Platform Promotion: Platforms often highlight strategies that lead to more frequent trades, as these generate higher commissions for brokers.
Attracting Active Traders: Scalpers tend to make more trades, and brokers benefit from the higher transaction volume.
Risk Policies: Some platforms may structure their risk management tools and incentives to favor short-term trading.
What Independent Sources Say
When we look at independent, non-conflicted sources, a different picture starts to emerge. Independent academic studies suggest that swing traders may actually perform better than scalpers, for several reasons:
Lower Trade Frequency: Swing traders typically make fewer trades, which reduces the impact of commission fees and spreads on their returns.
Focus on Trends and Fundamentals: Swing traders often use technical analysis and fundamental factors to capture larger price moves, improving their potential for larger gains.
Better Risk Management: With more time between trades, swing traders tend to employ more disciplined risk management practices.
Less Stress and Fatigue: Scalping requires constant focus, which can lead to poor decision-making due to stress or fatigue.
Independent Studies: Swing Traders vs. Scalpers
Let’s take a look at some independent studies that tell a different story from the industry narrative:
University of California Study (2019): Found that swing traders had an average annual return of 12.6%, compared to 6.8% for scalpers.
Journal of Trading Report (2018): Showed a success rate of 55.6% for swing traders, compared to 41.4% for scalpers.
QuantConnect Report (2020): Strategies based on swing trading delivered an average annual return of 15.6%, outperforming scalping strategies.
These studies highlight how swing trading can offer better risk-reward profiles compared to the fast-paced, high-stress world of scalping.
Key Takeaways for Individual Traders
The key lesson here is not to fall for marketing hype or industry reports that may push you towards a specific style of trading, especially one that benefits the platforms you trade on. Here’s what you should keep in mind:
Be Critical: Always question the sources of information. Industry success rates might be skewed by conflicts of interest.
Independent Research: Seek out independent studies, academic journals, and unbiased platforms to get a clearer picture.
Understand Your Goals: Both swing trading and scalping come with risks. Choose a trading style that fits your goals, risk tolerance, and lifestyle.
Focus on Long-Term Growth: While scalping may seem exciting, swing trading tends to offer better long-term results by focusing on fewer, higher-quality trades with disciplined risk management.
Recommended Resources for Objective Information
Academic Journals: Journal of Trading, Journal of Financial Markets.
University Studies: Seek out financial studies from universities like Stanford or Berkeley.
Independent Platforms: QuantConnect, Backtrader.
Specialized Blogs: TradingView, Investopedia.
In conclusion, while the industry may promote fast-paced trading with promises of high success rates, the reality for individual traders is often quite different. Take the time to educate yourself and base your decisions on unbiased, independent information to improve your chances of success.
P.S. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll dive deeper into the topic, going beyond the potential use of misleading advertising. I'll demonstrate, using statistical methods—specifically, a covariance analysis—why larger time frames, like those used in swing trading, are mathematically more favorable for individual traders. Don't miss it!
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading is risky, and you should always conduct thorough research or consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.