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NATGAS Can the Saudi's Shale Plan stop the Bears?Natural gas prices slumping nearly 40% over the past year and is showing a retracement in the Asia session. Saudi Aramco has announced that it will be pumping $110 billion over the next couple of years to develop the Jafurah gas field, which is estimated to hold 200 trillion cubic feet of gas. The state-owned company hopes to start natural gas production from Jafurah in 2024 and reach 2.2 Bcf/d of sales gas by 2036 with an associated 425 million cubic feet per day of ethane. The field will produce some 550,000 barrels per day of gas liquids and condensates, around 50% more than current output of just over 1 million bpd. For perspective, Aramco produced 8.9 Bcf/d of natural gas and 1 Bcf/d of ethane in 2018. PIVOT INDICATOR STILL SIGNALLING MORE SHORT TO COME YET.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by CeoCodes
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary • TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern. • Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel. • Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts. Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend. A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets. Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment. Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
TADAWUL:TASILong
by BrucePowersCMT
Getting ready for a difficult week and analyzing key eventsThe previous week for the foreign exchange market was marked by record-low volatility. Even the blackest Friday of the year did not desire to buy or sell actively anything. The informational background of the week was relatively calm. Negotiations between the US and China were moving somewhere, according to the assurances of the parties. But the markets are tired of talks and waiting for actions. And then Trump signed an extremely irritating China law to support Hong Kong protesters. That hypothetically could disrupt the entire negotiation process. In general, so far everything is not that clear, which means potentially unstable. Accordingly, this week we are looking for opportunities for the purchase of safe-haven assets. The points for this are very prospective, in terms of profit/risk per trade. The upcoming week will be interesting. Statistics on the US labour market will be published on Friday, which is expected to lead to strong movements in dollar pairs. Also, OPEC will meet on Thursday, which in theory could provoke an explosion of volatility in the oil market. According to experts, Saudi Arabia may put the question point-blank of non-fulfilment by several members of their obligations under OPEC +. Actually, it is the efforts of the Saudis that keep afloat the conditions for reducing production by 1.2 million barrels. If Saudi Arabia decides that they are done, the oil will fall quickly and violently (see oil dynamics on Friday). In this light, let us recall our recommendation to sell oil as a basic idea for working with oil under current conditions. Another important news that worth noting is the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy parameters, data on Eurozone GDP and US business activity indices. So far, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. But a series of a confident macroeconomic positive outcome may make us change our position, at least in the short term position. So we will closely follow the news.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Data from ADP, unstable gold and weak oilThe publication of US employment data from ADP came out yesterday. However, the outcome did not form positions in the markets. The + 135K figure came out almost in line with forecasts (experts expected + 140K), so the markets did not get an answer to the question of what to expect from the NFP figures. Although in general, the vector is unpleasant for the US economy and the US dollar in particular ( a decrease in the number of new jobs and a gradual deterioration in the US labour market). So our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we will continue to look for points for its sales. QAs for the dynamics of gold. Breakdown 1485-1490 gave the asset a sign to go down. The lows in the region of 1460 are in favour of that. But weak data on the US economy on Tuesday turned the situation upside down. Yesterday’s value of 1290 means the return to the bull market and the end of the correction. But since statistics on the US labour market will make the next batch of corrections already on Friday, we refrain from recommendations on gold this week: we will wait until the markets still decide whether to grow or fall. As for the oil. The market-determined the basic drivers: a slowdown in the global economy as a negative factor in demand and production restoration by Saudi Arabia as a positive factor for supply. As a result, sellers continued to dominate, and in the evening also intensified amid information about US oil reserves. According to the Ministry of Energy, weekly stocks rose by 3 million barrels, which is a bearish signal. So today we do not see any special reasons for the growth. But on Friday may well be adjustments. So on Thursday, we will continue to look for points for oil sales, but exclusively on the intraday basis. Although we note that oil prices have almost reached the calculated points for the current decline, announced by us on Monday. As for China and Germany, we do not expect anything special today. Tomorrow we are waiting for statistics on the US labour market, there is every reason to expect a relatively calm day, during which the markets will prepare for NFP data to realize. So today you can try to concentrate on active oscillatory intraday trading. For example, use clock oscillators and sell from the local overbought area and buy from the local oversold area. That is, to work without any obvious preferences.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Bet against oil this week after surprise crude inventory buildThere's lots of bad news for crude oil prices right now. Yesterday, OilPrice.com reported that "the American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a large crude oil inventory draw of 5.92 million barrels for the week ending September 26—a surprise compared to analyst expectations of a 1.567-million-barrel build." This morning, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed the finding of a surprise inventory build, although the EIA's number is a little lower: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week." This surprise inventory build comes despite significant efforts on the part of oil companies to scale back both imports and production, both of which were down week-over-week. There's more bearish news for oil prices, too. Saudi Arabia is reporting its oil fields back at full production, and the US is exploring non-violent solutions to the Iran crisis, including sanctions and peace talks. Both those developments, while good for the world, are bad for oil prices. I've purchased some of the DRIP fund to profit from further declines in oil prices this week. For more news and educational ideas, subscribe to my new YouTube channel for beginner investors, "Wall Street Petting Zoo"!
AMEX:DRIPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
Johnson's resignation, "Japanese disease" & oil The US dollar value is growing in the foreign exchange market. Although we do not agree with the current dollar state, however that what is happening. We are conscious of the futility of trying to go against the market will, but the sensation of the illogical nature of what is happening and the current dollar value still does not pass. So today we will continue to sell the dollar. Recall that partly the strength of the dollar is in the weakness of opponents. Yesterday, for example, weak data on the leading Eurozone economy came out. Germany now not only has negative economic growth, but also a decline in inflation. And this is already a completely bad signal. Something similar was observed in Japan in the 90s (“the lost decade”) and was called “Japanese disease”. So it seems like Germany has caught the same virus. This is also supported by the fact that leading economic institutions are going to lower forecast for 2019. In this light we sell EURUSD. This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may well get his vote of no confidence, and Britain will finally plunge into the abyss of political chaos. Which, will quickly turn into economic chaos. At least yesterday's data on UK GDP (the indicator fell by 0.2% in the second quarter) shows that, as do polls by British companies that are rapidly losing faith in the country's economic prospects. In general, the pound also has reasons to decline. But on the other hand, do not forget about the rule that has been developed recently: "Johnson’s weakness is pound’s strength." buying in the area of 1.2290 and selling with 1.2350. In both cases, we set the small stops. There was an increase in sellers in the oil market yesterday. In this case, everything happened according to our forecasts and expectations. As a reason for oil sales, there were conciliatory statements from the country of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in which he stated that "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel." That is, he confirmed the information that the Kingdom does not want the conflict to escalate. As a result, the third quarter was the worst for oil in 2019 (prices fell by almost 9%). Our recommendation for oil is unchanged so far - we sell oil. Sales target - bottoms $ 51 (brand WTI). Precisely because of the peace-loving crown prince, gold yesterday went below 1485. For us, this is a kind of watershed. While gold is below this mark, in our opinion, bears control the market situation. And this means that today we will sell gold with stops above 1285.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Euro and pound weakness, dollar strength and US crisisThe political scandal in the United States and Trump's coming impeachment proceedings. So the US stock market was falling against this background, the dollar was striving for multi-year highs. Such behaviour could be explained by the weakness of competitors. The euro, for example, received a number of painful hits both from the weak data on the Eurozone (consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2015) and Germany (according to experts at the DIW Institute, Germany's economy is heading into recession), and from the ECB’s chief economist announced the possibility of a further rate cut by the Central Bank. The British pound also suffered losses in the foreign exchange market. The main reason is Brexit, or rather, the lack of progress in the negotiation process between Britain and the EU, as well as a statement by Bank of England representative that the Central Bank could reduce its interest rate even if it would be possible to avoid Britain's exit from the EU without a deal. Despite the existence of reasons to dollar strengthen, we still consider it anomalous (in the end, the Fed has already lowered the rate twice this year and most likely will do it one more time). Therefore, this week we will continue to look for points for its sales. However, there is no need to look for for a long time - the current dollar prices are close to ideal sales points. Given the global vector of monetary easing by the Central Banks gold as an object of interest is strengthening. So this week we will continue to look for points of asset purchase. While gold is above 1485, we see no threats to its purchases. Last week, selles trend was dominating on the oil market. The main reason was information on Saudi Arabia return oil production to its previous level. Data on oil reserves in the United States (reserves rose), as well as updated IEA forecasts, showing a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. In this light, our recommendation to sell oil this week remains relevant. Remember oil might be corrected any time, that means that small stops must be placed with every open position in oil. With regard to macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid primarily to statistics on the US labour market (traditionally it is published on Friday), the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expected to reduce rates by 0.25%), UK GDP on Monday as well as consumer inflation in the Eurozone and US business activity indices.
INDEX:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
The weakness of Eurozone, the mercy of Iran and demarche of SinoSome cases are still unresolved also news that the Chinese delegation has cancelled a planned visit to American farms only exacerbates. So yesterday's gold growth was more than logical against the backdrop of fears of the failure of negotiations on trade wars. Our position on gold is unchanged - we continue to look for points for asset purchases. This is happening against the background of a decrease in oil quotes. Moreover, there was an additional reason for bears. The decision of the Iranian authorities to release the British tanker Stena Impero. Formally, this is a signal of the tension decrease in the region. However, you should not rely on peace in the Middle East. The situation continues to be unstable, especially after the United States decided to send the military to help Saudi Arabia. However, our recommendation to sell oil remains relevant. In our opinion, the factors in favour of asset sales outweigh the arguments in favour of purchases. Among the main arguments the restoration of oil production by Saudi Arabia, fears of a decrease in demand on the oil market amid a deterioration in the global economy and the offshore revolution in the United States. Euro update. PMI indices in the whole Eurozone, as well as its key economies - Germany and France - came out distressing. Production indices everywhere dropped below 50, falling below the most pessimistic forecasts. For example, the PMI in the manufacturing sector in Germany in September reached 41.4 with a forecast 44.0 (by the way, the rate of decline in Germany's economic indicators is the highest over the past 10 years). That is, economic activity is deteriorating rapidly. Although the PMI in the Eurozone as a whole is still above 50, judging by the current dynamics, it will soon go below this mark. Yes, and the current value of 50.4 is the lowest mark for the last 4 years. Recall that we recommend selling the euro primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the British pound. Even against the dollar, for all our disbelief in it, we are more likely to sell euros than buy. Moreover, the data on PMI indices in the USA yesterday came out not only above 50, but also better than forecasts. Once again, we point on excellent opportunities for Russian ruble sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Long the Iran Saudi warTensions are climbing in the middle east and they are climbing fast. Accusations have been made and whether or not they were responsible for the attack, there is a giant target on Iran right now. With all the crap going on in the world, Deteriorating middle east is not far fetched. I sure hope it does not happen but it's looking inevitable. A conflict of this scope would seend oil prices soaring. Might as well take advantage of it. Some good oil stocks to look at such as VET, CJ , CPG, MEG, etc (bold tickers for good dividends)
FX:USOILLong
by MysteriousPersian
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Midterm View on OIL - Attack on the largest processing facility.Fundamentals: Crude Oil has always been the prime choice of traders when it comes to geopolitics : The commodity soared in response to an aggressive drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil processing facility, whipping 5.7 million barrels of daily crude production or 50% of the kingdom’s oil output.Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack, but the U.S. has blamed Iran with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeting Saturday Iran has launched an “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”President Trump said there is reason to believe the U.S. knows the culprit and is “locked and loaded,” while waiting to get the verification from the kingdom to proceed. Trade Explanation: -Strong Supply Level broken upward and tested back as a Support Zone. - 60$ per barrel is a key fundamental and institutional price (Largely the level where most companies are breakeven or barely netting profits). - First RSI oversold signal confirming the supply level where there might be downside pressure. - Huge daily traded volume increase.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
US oil prices had their biggest spike. How to earn on it?US oil prices had their biggest spike. Oil prices soar after attacks on Saudi facilities and ended nearly 15% higher on Monday. Abruptly ceased more than 5.7 million barrels per day of production. We consider this situation a unique opportunity for earning. The fact is that the disappearance of 5 million b / d of oil is a temporary phenomenon. According to some estimates, most of them will return to the market in the coming days. Also, Trump is ready to sell oil from US strategic reserves to stabilize the market. Accordingly, the current growth is an emotional reaction. So oil will be adjusted. Given the scale of yesterday's growth, the correction will also be significant. So today we recommend oil sales. It may be necessary to be in the position for several days, but the goal is clearly worth the time spent. Another opportunity for earning. The Russian ruble entered the sales zone. The next round of sales (final) we will start with 62.50 (unless, of course, the price reaches these marks). And finally, the recommendation to buy gold and other safe-haven assets is also relevant in the light of current events. The US has already managed to blame Iran for the attack, so in theory, the situation could be developed. Meanwhile, financial markets received another batch of evidence in favor of the global economic slowdown. This time, China gave cause for disappointment and concern. Industrial production in Sino grew by 4.4%, which is the minimum increase since 2002 (!). So if the oil shock goes on, the chances of a global recession will increase. Today is formally out of surprises. It is worth paying only to industrial production in the USA. But in general, markets are beginning to prepare for the Fed results announcement. But we’ll talk about it tomorrow. And today, we note that dollar sales are still one of our priorities in trade.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Big strike on largest oil refinery - big gap coming at open!!If you follow the news, you know about the big drone strike on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery - their largest one - this weekend. An Iran linked group is claiming responsibility. From articles I have read, they are saying this will drop production by 5 million BPD which is pretty significant... then of course the tension this creates on a world scale, in an already sensitive oil market with the USA and Iran going at it. Anyways, this will cause oil to gap up big at market open this evening. I plan on playing that gap, but will wait for a little pull back before I enter long.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Bankuur