SPY swing puts - the RSI bear storyPlease see notes on chart.
I bought 21 May 418 strike puts when SPY was over 422.30.
Strangely, the U.S. markets are flying high today while individual stocks are chopping around and/or still leaning bearish on 30 or 60m timeframes.
SPY weekly chart has been extended for so long that I am ignoring it for now and paying attention to the daily and 30m for context.
Sandp500
S&P 500 Due A Breather?The S&P 500 continues to trend well and has been making use of the 20 and 50 simple moving
averages as support.
On April 1st 2021, price finally broke above $4000 which was anticipated to be a potential
strong level of resistance. Price broke through with ease, forming a linear move to the upside.
A pullback is due as price has seen a nice move upwards, so some selling off is natural. We just
need to identify levels of support price may come down to.
We have the 20 simple moving average, the $4000 round number, followed by the 50 simple
moving average.
Whichever level acts as support is irrelevant, we just need to continue to see a pattern of
higher highs and higher lows to confirm the uptrend is still in play.
Overall, the stock market is bullish and we may well continue to see bull trends throughout
the rest of the year.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
$SPY nearing a top (Mid-May), support in the low $300sIt looks to me like $SPY is nearing the end of its bull run. We should see one more large push up. Thinking it'll top out around $425-$430 in the middle of May and find support in August around the $320 area (Green support line). If price falls under $323 and the selling continues, price could go all the way down to the lower support line at $287 where I would expect a bounce.
Key levels and pivot dates on the charts. Same idea as before, updated timing and levels.
Good luck.
S&P 500 looking overbought. Expecting 100+ point correction.It's your friendly neighborhood trader-man. S&P looks overextended.
I'm looking for a deep correction that is also healthy. I think the year will be a crazy one that finishes up, so I'm not long term bearish. Only when I see the signs.
Longs use tight stops, and keep a close eye on the overnight action.
The biggest thing for me is just how low the volume has been this recent week. Moves up on lower volume don't last!
Will it correct tomorrow?.. I would never tell the market what to do. If it finishes the week high, I would only grow more bearish.
SPY momentum is reversing - Lots of DIVERGENCECurrently there is some divergence between the ROC and the price of SPY. ROC (rate of change) is a momentum indicator.
There have been multiple divergences like this before, and each one resulted in a trend reversal.
The ROC has moved back towards the mid-line, which is a sign of waning momentum. If we cross below the mid-line (0 value) then we could see some downward momentum and lots of selling.
We also just hit the 21-period moving average in the previous session. If we cannot stay above it then I will remain bearish.
SPY rising wedge looks eerily similar to post-covid rallyLots of similarities between the two rising wedges (orange lines).
Both have a double top in the RSI.
Both rallies about 150 days long.
Both rallies breached the upper resistance level of the wedge.
In both instances, a correction of about 7% gets us back to the green support line.
If we break down from that, then the purple line should be the next support level (assuming things play out the same way).
QQQ poised to outperform SPY?This chart is the ratio between QQQ and SPY. When the ratio increases, it means QQQ is outperforming SPY.
Just recently the ratio broke out of a symmetrical triangle, and now we may be entering into an ascending channel (purple lines).
If we can manage to stay within the ascending channel, then it's safe to assume that QQQ could outperform SPY by 5 percentage points in the short term. E.g. if SPY returns 10% in a month, then QQQ returns 15% - a difference of 5 percentage points.
If we break out from the ascending channel and move higher, then QQQ could really outperform SPY.
What about S&P 500?It seems the journey is still going on// Even though it is charming I cannot say it is cheap to buy and hold except some energy companies.
in my opinion the next target is 4130!
If you are a long term investor then no worries but if you are not then you may consider the better options
I know it is already bought higher than its worth but the governments need to feed the markets in these bad days so money needs been put somewhere, right? Maybe the new Everest will be seen .. who knows!
I wish you good profit!
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S&P500 Sells running, lets see how it rolls. 👍🙏Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
Battle of the BondsA good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals.
Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there.
Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three.
Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil, and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation, yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives.
Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more).
So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief.
If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.
Is the S&P 500 Overheated?While my prior projections for the S&P have been trash, I still believe we will see a pull back in 2021 as we are still over-heated. Ideally, I would want it to trade sideways to catchup to the true mean.
S&P: Why your shorts aren't winningHave you been shorting this bull market wondering why you're not winning?
I've been getting direct messages asking me when is it a good time to short or why when there is a reversal candle there is no follow through to the downside.
Zooming out to the 2 day chart I think you can see why. We are in a massive uptrend channel since early last year right after the big COVID drop.
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND
As of today, I would not be trying to short or even go long. I think the market is too risky and is coming up to heavy resistance.
We need a big pullback before I think the S&P becomes attractive. Where is that pullback? I may end up waiting to see it pullback closer to the bottom of the channel (with retest) to go long. I'll also take a breakout of the top of the channel (with retest).
Why not short when it reaches to the top of the channel? We are in a strong uptrend and going short is not recommended. Some may take the short at the top of the channel and be rewarded. It's just not my type of trade. I like trades with higher probability.
Hopefully this view makes it much more clear why if you've been shorting the market since March 2020, you have been on the wrong side of the trade.
I will be a seller if the bottom of the channel breaks to the downside (with retest). Then I think shorting will become attractive.
Good luck trading.
"When it feels really right it's probably wrong and when it feels really wrong it's probably right."
S&P500 2021 outlookSPX500 to 4300 target for 2021.
based on the projection of a correctional move within certain months, however the rate of debt the debt market cycle has not been reacting negatively yet with yields still intact and further debt creation to refinance debt obligations .
There will be weeks and months which have negative returns, however the overall Fibonacci and rolling returns model suggests that the pricing model shows 4,000+ to be created and surpassed due to SPDR health sector and tech sectors beating the benchmark.
This is a quick example - a further explanation will be provided.
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S&P500 - PE Ratio Growth Similar to 1999 .COM CrashThe website known as multpl reported that yesterday the Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 37.37
If you Google search " Multpl " you'll see the website that I'm referring to.
The last time the SPX PE Ratio was this high was back in 1999 when we had the .com crash
If you also use Yahoo Finance as a tool for your decision making process, well unfortunately they report a lot of false data. You can easily discover this simply by looking at their quarterly earnings and then comparing those percentages with the charts here on TradingView.
For Example, if you look up AMD in Yahoo Finance they display that the Current Quarter Estimate (Analysis Tab) has a growth of 43.80%, but in fact if you pull up a chart of AMD here on TradingView and calculate the growth simply with price per share beginning of the quarter (Oct 1) with the current price, it's clear that stock did not grow anywhere close to 43.80%
This applies for many other stocks listed in Yahoo Finance as well.
Sure we have been getting better then expected earnings in 2020 but my point is that if you're using third party tools like Yahoo Finance and looking at the forecasts for next quarter or next year, you might want to be careful you don't invest heavy to later discover the data may very well have been incorrect.
Many large corporations including AAPL are expected to slowdown significantly in the first quarter of 2021. What I wonder is who really wants to take on the unnecessary risk of investing at these highs based off the backs of an artificial economy produced by QE from the Fed ??
Trade Safe - Trade Well
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
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Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
> Elliot Wave<> 3 of 3 of 3<> Final Wave 4 Complex WXY zigzag >As title suggests, this is an update to previous posts on massive 5 wave move from LOW
We are currently mid way througth the final 4th wave of the concentric unwinding of 4-5-4-5-4-5 which began VDUMPS lows.
See previous post for more detailed snapshot of interior complex structures.
> ElliotWave >< complex 5-3-5 WXY zig-zag (green) >< WaveFour >As title suggests, we are currently mid way through a dragged out complex WXY zig-zag.
This is the final wave 4 of the unwinding 4-5 4-5 4-5 of concentric 1-2 1-2 1-2's that began VDUMP lows.
These unwinding market torrents are remnants of the initial impulse off the VDUMP lows from previous posts. corroborated by the highly complex interior os the beginning of the structure highlighted by the 5 degree complex WXY and the 2 idencical "BAK" WXY wave 2 and 4 in the first of the 5 waves of the Simple ABC zigzag inside.