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Sandp500

S&P500 not aloud to go down?The buy backs on the main market indices have been interesting to watch lately, both the S&P500 and the DJI have had some sharp sell offs from our ridiculous highs, only to be met with extremely strong buy backs the following day almost making it easy picking for a top up on your position. I had an interesting discussion with a mate of mine last night throwing around a few theories, that whilst Interest rates are low the bond markets are dwindling, cash is no good to hold because of the looming inflation, bond markets are a contract to lose money right now so people are looking for "riskier" alternatives and taking more interest into the stock market or even crypto currencies. You see there idea of money flow is like this \/\/ Cash = Benchmarked against inflation (Your cash is losing buying power every day so you need to get rid of it somewhere) Bonds = Benchmarked against Cash (This is a safe place to avoid the loss in buying power against inflation however low return, considered a risk free return) Index = Benchmarked against Bonds (A little more riskier than the bond market with high potential reward although potential for short term drawdowns or bear market which is opportunity cost) Active port folio = Benchmarked against Index (higher risk that an index, requires more skill, research and time, can offer fantastic rewards but much higher risk of not being profitable at all) Gambling = Benchmarked against Active port folio (Super high risk, penny stocks/crypto/start ups etc, throwing money on punts for one last hope of making bank, 99% of the time ends in tears) As more and more people jump into the markets with very little education or experience or simply high expectations, then the old avg of 7-8% return buying the market seems like an underachiever right now so people are looking for riskier options to beat the market. There is no surprise of the influx of new "investors" making there way into facebook groups and shilling random penny stock companies and meme coins in the hope of 10xing there money in a week that we are seeing over valued pricing in the market as people rush to "diversify" into whats hot right now. Some with a basic understanding might be out there loading up on various ETF's or market trading index funds which can also cause an increase in buying activity into these large cap companies which only contributes to the over evaluation of the entire market. Seeing a PE ratio of 80 right now is considered low lol, if you dismiss this company as over valued based on a PE metric then your most likely going to be missing out on a lot of upside as people continue to buy into the market looking for safe havens or dreams of becoming overnight millionaires, and if the gov continue the QE program then we are going to continue to see these assets being bought up in bulk. Crazy times, but just got to roll with it
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by DeNomics
INFLATION!.18 Months after COVID-19 surfaced, the world's economy is on its knees. We are looking at inflation close to the levels we had seen in the 2008/09 crisis. It must be made clear that some of the projected inflation shows we are not in too much trouble - Inflation in the US has shown the highest reading since 2008 - other indexes like the CPI ( Consumer price Index ) have shown the largest yearly increase since 2008. A recipe for disaster. Stocks struggled earlier this year which could be seen as a reaction to the struggling vaccine rollouts, however, since then they have performed better with people regaining trust in the economy. Sadly I believe this trust is misplaced and those who have made the mistake are in grave danger of losing money. Let's talk a bit about why inflation is so high. Uncle Sam down at the FED has decided to print 21% of all circulating dollars in history in a mere 12 months. Yes you heard that, Since the dollars creation 21% of the dollar that exists was printed due to covid. The excuse? ''Quantitative easing'' a measure which is barely tested well. Many will say that in 2008 it helped us fight the recession, but even that is unclear. Many different approaches were taken in 2008 and it's almost impossible to pinpoint what helped the recovery, maybe it was natural? If not it's definitely not conclusive that QE saved us. Yet you'd expect such a wild decision to be backed by Solid Evidence. The natural question which follows is if so much is being printed, where is the money going? Everyone is still broke, right? People have less, well i can say for sure the poor(us) are definitely poorer and the rich well some may be unaffected or some even richer. Large companies received bailouts and cover of wages, while even some smaller business' had access to the scheme set up by countries. The UK had a bounce back loan system which helped a lot of companies while America has been borrowing companies money with 0% interest for ages now and promises to continue it. Yet those left jobless or on cut wages have and will carry on struggling. Covid was a beautiful beautiful scam. Not in the sense of it not existing instead we know for sure countries and governments monetized this tragedy. From small things such as PCR tests required for travel, yet free PCR tests provided are not to be used instead you must pay. We've seen here in the UK members of parliament's family/friends given contracts for masks or other gear/products needed in this fight against covid. Of course we've seen the dark pharmaceutical industry prosper from such struggles, but i'll cut them some slack.  Regardless, it's becoming clearer that we are in a recession and inflation will hurt.US bond yields which have normally been correlated to Inflation figures have taken a different route. Against expectations the yields have begun to drop. Essentially meaning if inflation levels continue to increase, you will be making less and less on the US yields. We have also seen NASDAQ jump an insane 1.7%. Which in stock terms is unfathomable. S&P 500 has recently set an ATH ( All Time High ). This is due to the Fed promising to keep lending with an interest rate of zero. Essentially the US market which leads the world, sadly, (like the way BTC is leading crypto again sadly) is surviving on printing more. The government or the FED to be more accurate print money and buy stocks. While also lending more money to business' and charges nothing in return. It leaves us in a place where the market no longer makes sense. P/E ratios are broken, Debt/Earning Ratios barely make sense and borrowing money seems better then having money on the books right now. All in All most may have got here and thought what is this young man waffling about. Well look, The US market is showing strength when it really shouldn't. I don't believe this quantitative easing will work and if it does it's a matter of delaying the explosion of the bubble which is the American stock market. Also the terrible USD, our so-called reserve currency of the world, will continue to lose value. So what is the solution you may ask? Well the truth is there may not be one. The new normal may just be extreme debt and overspending by governments, currencies no longer needing backing and Proof-of-trust is what we may rely on to keep the world economy working. History tells us that Trust especially in the hands of those with power, is almost always misplaced, and will sooner than later be broken. So until then we must diversify our portfolios and hedge against the risk of this likely scenario. What are the hedges you ask???? B T C. Love it or hate it. It is digital gold . Many will stop listening here out of pure hardheadedness. BTC is, like it or not, similar to gold in all aspects of Money storage or hedging against inflation. BTC unlike gold has a set supply which makes it deflationary in the sense that every year some is lost and some is burnt. Alongside this we are seeing more and more BTC be put away as a long term store. This will further increase its value long term as supply will continue to dry up. Some BTC is also being locked up in DEFI, whether that is to stake it or as insurance against a loan. All in all drying the supply of BTC. There is also the most important factor behind BTC's recent push. The Bitcoin halving. To explain this we must first understand how BTC is mined and what a block is.  We will quickly describe what a block is and how BTC itself works. In the BTC network a block is a digital book. It stores information about transactions which are made. Each transaction is stored on one block only. This information is stored permanently. As the block is online, no-one can alter the information, not even the coders behind BTC. Also, all information is public. Now let's talk about mining. Like gold, In order to own BTC you must either buy it or mine it. Of course you may steal it but that's not nice. Now we will look at how to " Digitally Mine BTC". In order to Mine BTC you need to set up a mining rig which in layman's terms is a strong computer. Then it's a competition of who can solve the complex hashing problem associated with each 'block'. Whoever solves this first is the one who is rewarded with the btc.  Now we know what a block is, and how to mine one we will briefly discuss the supply of BTC. Satoshi the creator decided on having 21,000,000 BTC's. Each block which is mined the miner is rewarded with BTC. The prize for each block started at 50 BTC a block. Every 210,000 blocks the prize is halved. It takes approximately 10minutes to mine every block. This leads to the ''BTC HALVING''. This halving occurs every 3-4years. Current price stands at 6.3BTC. It's worth noting in terms of US value the price has increased at a dramatic rate. This is a result of BTC doing more than x2 every 4 years. Significantly more. This halving causes a sudden supply shock to the BTC economy. It then puts BTC in what us market nerds call a BULL market. Where essentially we expect BTC to increase in value. Similar to the US stock market which has been bullish for as long as I can remember. Sadly the BULL market doesn't run for as long as the US Stock markets one, However the gains are substantially better. With BTC doing x10 in a year becoming the normal. While other coins like ETH which is the second largest crypto by market cap doing as much as 40x. Smaller coins have seen x100 in some and x1000 in others. We will avoid discussing such coins. Regardless, this has made BTC a very good investment for some. It's made a lot of people rich and it will continue to do so. Yes it may be extremely volatile, with drops of 40-60% to be expected. You cannot ignore its long term value. It will rise. A lot. The S&P 500 which was the old hedge will go to shit and if it doesn't 5-10% a year isn't that appealing is it? Long term BTC has proven to be the best hedge and In my opinion is better valued than the bubble which is the US stock market. I also believe in buying gold as a hedge. All in all we MAY see somewhat of a super cycle with this terrible US mess of a market which is slowly unravelling. 2020-2021 will have movies about it. How so many profited from Covid crash and the market crash which is approaching. Meme stocks and crypto will feature. Be a part of it or forever regret it. Anyways enjoy the read. I hope i didn't go too off topic.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ridhabouh99
3
S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction. Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets. The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top, which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher. If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptotraderog
7
S&P Bounces Off Trend Channel... Again!Good news! We have another bounce today off the yearly trend line on $SPY. We've been tracking SPY and this trend channel for awhile and this has been our 6th bounce off the bottom of the channel! This trend channel has proven to be a good buy opportunity whenever we bounce off it, even though SPY has seem resistant at breaking new highs. I expect bullish momentum to continue forward as monetary policies remain the same after this weeks FOMC. Inflation is expected to rise but since interest rates remain low, it will continue to be a buyers market. Something interesting to be looking for is next weeks Fed Balance Sheet report. There has been a high amount of cash sitting on sidelines which in turn compels high amounts of liquidity flowing into Fed reverse repurchases (Reverse Repo). If we see lower numbers on the next report, this means institutional money is flowing back into the markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by WaisTrades
1
S&P 1 hour. Going for new highs.S&P made a new all time high to end last week. I'm thinking it might just go ahead and run higher through this next week. If it doesn't then I will shift my bias until the market and I are on the same page, but for the moment I would be thinking blue skies above. On the far right (price) it is sideways. But in order to get to where it is now it had to break a lot of bearish obstacles. New highs means that the toughest work is behind it, even if that is only for a short while.
CME_MINI:ESM2021Long
by emehoke
4
Bitcoin and U.S. Bond Yield: A True Love Story When investors were fearful of the growing inflation they were looking for an asset to hedge against this madness. They used to buy gold back in the days, but recently they found Bitcoin, which has many advantages compared to metal. So as we know, whenever investors lose confidence in the market they drop bonds driving the US10Y up, but they seem to buy bitcoin instead. It appears that investors are predicting the market by moving their funds in and out of the big crypto, which might explain the delay between these charts (white arrow). As you may notice, US10Y seems to be a few days behind BTC. Although, these charts are out of sync, they proportional. It looks like for every 3 points movement in Bitcoin, US10Y moves 1 point (See the blue arrows). When Bitcoin broke below its trendline on May 11th it dropped nearly 33%, while US10Y broke below its trendline on June 8th and dropped around 11%, hence the delay and proportionality. But considering the death cross and the massive head and shoulder that are about to complete on the BTC chart, Bitcoin may not be done dropping: So if it drops another 48%, US10Y should also drop but as much as 16%. Although, we are already anticipating a drop in the yield considering the CPI report released on June 10th: What does it all mean? It means: Money tunnels out of Bitcoin into Bonds and vice versa Yields react to the previous point. Lower Yields should result in the following scenarios: 1-Apes are going to have another run 2-The growth market should gain momentum 3-The speculative stocks should go up. Please share your thoughts and theories in the comment section below.
TVC:US10Y
by MarkitMaven
16
US500 4229.4 SHORT IDEA + 0.86 % * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTUREHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE US 500 INDEX FROM A 4H PERSPECTIVE. Will be looking for reversal patterns for this trading plan to be effective a break above of the resistance level changes the plan. * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bears change the plan. lets see how it goes. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
UShort
by PULEMokhothu
Short S&P 500Hello everyone, one of my best analyzes. We are near the end of a cycle, it should end before 2027. The fibonacci retracement follows the crash of 1929, which is also the start of the uptrend. We can see that we have only exited the yellow channel twice. Once from 1997 to 2001 and again from December 2020 to today. The bullish trends inside the bullish channel end when the white support line is broken. The second bullish base lasts about 70% of the time of the first, if we project that the third bullish base should last around 6500 days. When we have been above the 2 years * 1.2 EMA there has been a decline each time, we are currently above that moving average. The RSI: We can see that every time we hit or cross the 77, it follows a decline. Crashes are preceded by a bearish divergence, there is currently an unconfirmed bearish divergence. The crashes lasted 2250 days and 3100 days, each time we returned to the previous level of fibonacci and the channel support. If this is repeated we can expect a drop of more than 35% from the current level.
TVC:SPXShort
by HolderYoda
Signal crashing. Just for fun. Keeping myself engaged.I am pitting two of my favorite signals against each other. On one side, we have the downward sloping 20/50 sma’s. The challenger: a semi robust reversal chart pattern. The chart pattern isn’t a ‘perfect’ one, so I wouldn’t trade it regardless. Even if it does work. It’s ok to be picky. ——— Please kids don’t trade this way at home. Do a multi timeframe analysis on all of your trades. I’m just letting my inner child have some time with the charts.
CME_MINI:ESM2021
by emehoke
ESM2021. Reversal crystal formed off .5 reaction.S&P looks like it will be reversing. By that I mean the recent bottom may have revealed itself. Bulls will worry about the previous price consolidation that it will be encountering shortly, but there are a lot of good bullish elements to suggest that they will power through. The dip and recovery at the .5 level on the fib two times in a row should be satisfying the longs as well as the profit takers. If things remain in balance (which can be a big 'if') we can predict that a further impulse is on the way. I don't see much weakness in the market. You could use the story-telling method. People might not be certain that the stock market can continue bullishly with Biden instead of Trump. So far, this narrative has been disproven. Based solely on the evidence available from the chart it seems like a healthy bullish market. My worst case scenario is that we see another low before the reversal. If you are looking to buy and hold for long periods of time, like how the people with enormous holdings are doing, you would think what just happened in the markets is a gift from god, and you would probably be buying aggressively. I think that's exactly what created the reversal pattern.
CME_MINI:ESM2021Long
by emehoke