US500 - Break or Make Zone ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📊 After successfully rebounding from the previous major low at 4340.0, the US500 has displayed an overall bullish trend over the past few days.
However, it currently faces a formidable resistance level, which suggests that bearish pressure could emerge in the near future.
📉 For the bears to gain control, a break below the most recent minor low at 4487.0 is essential.
📈 Conversely, if the bulls maintain their dominance and manage to breach the 4540.0 resistance, we can anticipate further bullish momentum towards the subsequent resistance at 4600.0.
Which of these scenarios is more likely to occur first, and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Sandp500
Bears BewareThe S&P 500 is setup in a third wave extension, likely to burn out around the 448 range. The pullback to follow this will likely start out slow as bulls pull back their bids overall. Expecting this pullback to proceed to the $422-$428 range in early-mid august. I am best at predicting what, not when. Trend lines do great help in trying to assess the pace of the wave-count.
This pullback will be the setup for one last bullish reclaim that could have us seeing as far as $460 before this correctional is completely finished up. This is one of the largest most substantial correctional waves we've ever seen on the S&P 500.
SPx 4h (it looks bearish under 4358)SPx
the price can stable in a negative direction because already stabilized under 4358
so now will do a retest till 4358 and then will drop to reach 4309 and then should break that to get 4278 also.
the price will start dropping as long as trades under 4358 to reach 4309 and 4278 for this week
however, if the price reversed and stabilized above 4365 then will support the rising to reach 4391 and 4424
Pivot Price 4358
Support prices: 4338 & 4309 & 4278
Resistance prices: 4391 & 4424 & 4441
The moving range for today is between 4358 and 4309
tendency: Bearish
resistance will fallThe S&P500 has worked its way up to a resistance area currently around 4300 points. Due to the price development and the current situation of the indicators, it is most likely to be assumed that the resistance will be overcome and the index will continue its upward movement to around 4600 points.
Temporary setbacks could be considered as a buying opportunity. To signal a resilient move into a longer sustained move down, the US500 would need to break below the orange colored average in the chart above.
SPX Can Drop More, Watch For Bearish Continuations
Here on S&P500, price has completed a larger continuation correction on the larger scale, and lower time frame is showing more bearish price action.
What we can see now is the price has clearly move down in an impulsive phase on the latest development since last week. This is good sign for more bearish price action this week.
For now, its best to see if another consolidation could form this week, and continue the bearish trend down to the previous lows.
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 02/28Inflation and Rising Yields
The rising yields and inflation concerns still a big hang over on the markets. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be extremely nimble as there is a risk of sudden upside spikes due to retail stop runs by the big boys.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for TUE. 02/28:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3990, 3962, or 3953 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3987, 3970, 3958, or 3949 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3975. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 02/24Inflation Tamed Not
The Inflation numbers (PCE) this morning do not bode well, especially given the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out from the various Fed speakers. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be patient before striking as there is a risk of retail stop runs by the big boys.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 02/24:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3966, 3955, or 3945 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3949 or 3943 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3963. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:00am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SPX weekly, should we start?Phsycologically I am saying this is over and it's time to look up!
Technically I am saying this is not the cheapest and could be lower.., on the other hand technically not a bad point to start!
We would need more reason to go down, another geographical war could be a reason..
Neither Inflation nor recession have made a big fear on the market due to unemployment rates.
In this uncertanity why should I buy?
in this summer we saw the highest oil and shipment fee; however especially now
the demand reduced; so did the shipment fee and oil!
In the following months inflation rates might be lower than expected (I believe this will continue until the next April)
Only time will tell the truth
Guys! Let me know your thoughts if you have any..
Listen, If you are not comfartable enough to take any risk at all.. this is not the place for you!
If you are an excited person, this is not the place for you!
Please don't climb up any bridge when you lose your money, that only brings more suffer for others
When you lose your money you lose nothing
When you lose your health you lose something
But if you lose your character you lose everything
(Lansky)
Thanks
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 02/08Consolidation Ahead? Day 3
The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before stepping in more. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 02/08:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4167, 4152, or 4102 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4163, 4145, 4113, or 4097 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and short exits on a break above 4116 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
Symetrical Triangle Breakout vs Ascending Wedge Many have noted the "breakout" of the triangle over the last several sessions. I have not been convinced it has any legs. We are also developing a nice ascending wedge. My guess is the ~40% of target we hit was all the triangle had, and the wedge will play out to the downside.
S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good.
Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out).
There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k.
If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets.
In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%).
Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out)
Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal.
S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom.
If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets).
Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline.
Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
$SPY run it back turbo $405 target?Everyone turned bearish yesterday when the market fell 1.5% and are calling for new lows, however, I think the most likely scenario from here is that we push back up to $405 first before the real bear move begins.
After tagging $405, then I think the setup will favor the bears, and think we can fall back to the $370-380 range over the coming weeks.
I expect this move higher to play out by the end of next week.
Let's see what happens.
Jan 15,23-S n P 500-Will it hit 4100So it's earnings season and it's not supposed to be showing too well, however, the S n P is showing signs of strength from last week and his risen tonight to over 4000 again.
Hard to say but will some disappointing earnings numbers tank the 500 or will it keep going up to 4100 or 4200 before it drops back down to the 3800 area again.
Something to watch anyway...maybe put in a Sell Order at 4100.
Thoughts anyone?
Heiko
S&P500 - 1 Day Chart - Short Price Target of $2,880S&P500 1 Day Chart:
Short Price Target
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
C $4,102 - B $3,491 = $611
B $3,491 - (C-B) $611 = $2,880 Price Target
Ichimoku Timespan:
A to B = 41-Bars (42-1)
B to C = 34-Bars (33+1)
C to D = 75-Bars (76-1) (41+34=75) Wednesday 22nd March 2023
Notes:
The Ichimoku Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) looks like it is about to cross back under the Ichimoku Base Line (Kijun Sen) on this 1 day timeframe.
The Ichimoku Lagging Span (Chikou Span) looks like it is about to drop under the price from 26 Periods ago.
Note that the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) and Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) support is very thin where the S&P500 Price is located at the moment.
We have a Double Top at the 50% Fib Level $4,102 which is located around C of our Ichimoku V Calculation.
The S&P500 Price is under its Bollinger Bands Basis 20 Period SMA and we have expansion of the Upper and Lower Bands and this is for negative momentum.
The S&P500 Price is also under its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts Visible Range.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, Momentum is downwards and we can see that the MACD Line is still under its Signal Line and is getting very close to the 0.0 Base Line.
From my opinion, analysing all the above indicators it's looking very likely that we will see the Price Target of $2,880. This will also be fully confirmed when/if the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) crosses back under the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) creating a Kumo Twist into a Bearish Red Cloud on this 1 day timeframe.
I hope this is helpful.
SPX hide you kids, hide yo wife?Is this the beginning of a bigger move down? or a dip?
Rejected off of the Larger downward trendline.
Broke down out of the upward trendline.
Broke the proposed wave 4.
At an important level here to keep an eye on. It as flipped back and forth from support to resistance, then willy wonka'd and reversed it from resistance to support.
SO watching 3910 area to see if it holds again. A break under will be watching for a corrective retest, throwback...Wave dependent.
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S&P 500 Chart Analysis....
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