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S&P, Gold & BTC Correlation - when safe haven?For the last 6 weeks or so, there's only been one thing to trade - The Market, as everything moved up and down together, gapping violently based on news. These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC). In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now. In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together. In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated. Where next? Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon. My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully. +Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SimpleCryptoLife
2
Is there any hope left? Let's look at the BIGGER pictureLet's take a look at the long term logarithmic scale to view the long term trend of the S&P 500. We have completely broken past the monthly support and broke the .382 fib support level. Having analyzed the daily RSI we could be looking to form a bullish divergence that could lead us to a miniature relief rally to retest our old support and confirm it as resistance. If that is the case, then my downside targets are between 1500-1700 and I expect buyers to step in. That area is the .618 fib level as well as the multi year resistance from 2000-2007 and from a bullish technical perspective, you would want your old resistance to become new support. If that level is lost then our global economy could take YEARS to recover. If you like my analysis please give it a like and a follow for more. Thanks :)
SP:SPX
by ILikeToFomo
3
It is time to accept reality..Ladies and Fellars I try and stay as bullish as possible, but this is probably the most optimistic TA based off the current reality (Even if it doesn't seem optimistic).... The reality is, life is going to get much worse for all of us in the USA before it gets better, any rally before the virus comes runs its course through the USA will be a defeating false hope that will likely destroy your emotions. Some of us may not like to admit it but in the USA we overreact and when stuff gets bad we will overreact. That being said we will see small pops, maybe, but they will fade quickly, just like Europe this morning. We may technically be up from yesterday but be cautious Spy is struggling to hold itself high.. A simple falling wedge with room still to fall. While I could be wrong I would say the likely and best positive case short term is a slow bleed, rather than steep fall because no matter what happens day to day over the next few weeks we will likely keep falling. Let me know your thoughts..
AMEX:SPYShort
by JaxelCap
1
SPX - 5 Year IdeaWith the events that are currently spurring around the world it poses a great question as to whether a bear market is possible to be sparked in this climate. Only time will tell, but the historical trend line on this chart by itself looks plausible... 50%+ declines have been seen numerous times throughout the past 100 years, and as its been a longer than usual period without a sharp decline that could signal one to be just around the corner. - COVID-19 - OIL price war - Historically low interest rates to spark consumer spending (stimulate the economy) - High house prices - Manufacturing slowdown (especially in the EU) I'll be consulting this chart in 5 years time to see how wrong I was - or right...
TVC:SPX
by JeskoTrading
DJI ~ The DOW on course per my predictionThe DJI fell shortly after I called it out. It is acting very closely with the fib retracement. 20k by EOW followed by 18k is near future. Hold tight as there is no clear asset class that is showing to be acting like a safe haven. I wouldn't by shy about buying a little bit of precious metal as well as crypto and diversifying within the market as it is uncertain with what is happening. Cash may be king until everything is hashed out. Place your bets. Please like, share, and follow. Also, I encourage you yp criticize anything about my view. Join my discord server for a clsoer look at the markets - 24/7 --> discordapp.com
DJ:DJI
by MarketPointAlgo
1
How to Read Pennant Price Action More AccuratelyWe're all here on TV for the same reason, to become better traders and to make money. I came across this tip not too long ago and found that it really helped me read the price action better within pennants, so I wanted to share it with the community. Pennants form after a strong movement in price (either up or down) where the price bounces back in forth in a small area before it has to make a decision of where to go. The rule of thumb with pennants is they tend to break out in the same direction they were entered. This is often referred as a continuation pattern, where the price continues in the same direction it was heading. If the price was heading up, it will more likely than not break out to the upside and continue upward and vice versa. However, I noticed many times pennants not following that rule and I paid the price for being complacent in my trade. That was when I got this tip from Francis Hunt (highly recommended analyst) and it has really helped in anticipating where the price action is headed. Looking at WRX, notice how the price has strong spikes up in the price, followed by slow sell offs? This is bullish price action where the buyers are in control and it often leads to breakouts to the upside. I am merely using this price action as an example. WRX is a newly listed coin on Binance that did 9x in its first couple days on the exchange, so take this example more for the price action behavior than as evidence that it is going to explode to the upside. Now look at the pennant I have to the right of that. It entered the pennant on a bullish breakout so the price should continue in the same direction right? Well take a look at the price action inside the pennant. Notice the difference in how the price is reacting? In this case, each time the price slowly rises and is met with a sharp fall. This is an indication that the sellers are in control and you should be cautious of a strong breakout to the downside. I hope this tip helps you gauge your future trades into pennants more accurately. I have found that it has helped me dodge some sharp falls and take advantage of some big gains. I suggest you start searching the charts and analyzing the price action within those pennants to see if you notice this pattern as well. I hope it serves you as well as it has served me.
WEducation
by jpbrown1023
2
Gold Indication of Market Retrace :: 10YR Yield and S&P 500This post was encouraged because of the Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland. The last 3 years (roughly since mid 2017) contained talk around trade war. This has caused chaos within the markets. We have moved up and down 1000's of points with no specific direction. It seems that September 2019 has shown the true colors of the market sediment. We can identify the percent returns of the 10YR yield, gold and S&P 500 from this date. Things have not been adding up and has been blurred by the DOW hitting new highs every other week, misleading investors. Nobody is saying to liquidate but a rotation of wealth is underplay. I do believe that this is a rotation of wealth that is not our normal move into commodities/metals but potentially something larger. Impeachment trial proceeds today during the start of the Economic Forum. Is this to sway attention towards Davos? We will never specifically know until everything pans out. The chart speaks for itself with presenting the data. I would like to hear anyone's thoughts, ideas and/or theories.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MarketPointAlgo
Tesla Stock is Vulnerable to a 40% Elliott Wave DeclineTesla, Inc., formerly Tesla Motors, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles, and energy storage systems. Its market cap is approximately $86 billion. In Tesla's case, investors have been too optimistic recently. The stock is up 186% in the past six months, climbing from $177 low in May 2019 to $499 this month. Unfortunately for the bulls, no trend lasts forever. Therefore, once investors run out of optimism, the stock is likely to fall significantly. The question is, How soon? In order to find out if Tesla stock is a good pick now near $500, let’s take a look at its Elliott Wave chart above. The daily chart shows Tesla's entire progress since May 2019. As visible, the price appears to have formed a textbook five-wave impulse pattern, labeled 1-2-3-4-5. It certainly has been a wonder to behold while it lasted. The problem is the Elliott Wave theory states a three-wave correction follows every impulse. Normally, the corrective phase of the cycle would erase the entire fifth wave. For Tesla, this means a sell-off to the support of wave 4 near $327. The Moving Average indicator reinforces that the price is overextended. If this count is correct, the next couple of weeks can be a lot different than the past two months. What's your view on Tesla Stock?
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Veejahbee
10