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Wheat up four days consecutively & approaching local resistanceTechnically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering macro outlook and supply issues, MACD, vwap and RSI all point down to further pressure should this fib retrace become invalidated
WShort
by jbanton86829
AGRI - Food will come back without a doubt it my mindExpect orange range to hold as support for this here. Volume spikes after coming in suggesting it could be getting ready. Would be great if it held the top range but definitely doesn't have to. Nice that it coincides with the gap up on 16th of May. Looking for a swing here and this will be a ticker I'm going to be keeping an eye on for the rest of the year. Gaps filled and not too many people talking about food plays. Similar to energy a while back. Wheat futures has been trying to push lower for the past month and a half but it just can't stay down there. Like oil, I think food gets it's second leg and AGRI was there main player in smallcap world. Remember no fundamentals have changed regarding the food situation around the world, which I've mentioned in previous posts. ZERO
NASDAQ:AGRILong
by SlapAsksLiftOffers
Nat Gas's Rally To Strengthen Fundamentals: The global Nat gas supply is one of the tightest in the commodity space. Historically hot weather all over the world -most notably in Europe and in parts of the US- has created an abnormal amount of demand for nat gas this summer. Climate change and extreme weather are also now threatening the passage of cargo ships through the Rhine river, which could have big implications on the price of several European imports including nat gas. All the while Putin looks to use his pipeline Nordstream 1 as a bargaining chip in the face of NATO sanctions. There has already been talk about a complete halt of Russian gas into Europe coming in the fall of 22. Technicals: A cup and handle formation looks to have formed on the daily chart, currently in the final stage, in which NG1! should break out to new highs. Momentum is very strong on monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. The volume for this rally is certainly not the strongest. NG1! found support and bounced nicely off the 50% retracement level of around 7.5. Despite the low volume, I think new highs are a lock here for US nat gas. This is a textbook cup and handle, I expect an upside target of 13.65 to be hit in the medium-term outlook for NG1!. As always this is not trading advice. Good luck!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Gooby_Trades
2
August 15 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart According to The Block, August 12 saw the open interest of ETH option hit $8.11 billion—a figure that's nearly three times higher than where it stood a month ago. Bitcoin is down 0.8% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $24,150.91. Bitcoin rose above $25,000 on August 14 but the price could not sustain the higher levels, which suggests the bears are selling on rallies. The relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicates that the buyers have an advantage. If the price managed to sustain above $25,000, Bitcoin could rally to $28,000. Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline Russia Plans to Launch its CBDC-Digital Ruble Across all Banks in 2024 According to the latest monetary policy update from the Central Bank of Russia, the authority will start to connect all banks and credit institutions to the digital ruble platform in 2024. By that time, the central bank expects to complete “real money” customer-to-customer transaction trials as well as the testing of customer-to-business and business-to-customer settlements. In 2023, the Russian central bank also plans to test digital ruble-based smart contracts for eligible participants to trade. Additionally, the Central Bank of Russia continues to work on its upcoming central bank digital currency (CBDC), with plans to launch an official digital ruble within a few years. Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
by BingX
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1746As you guys saw from my previous analysis, I was short on Gold from 1791 & I am still holding onto those sells within the Gold Fund for my investors. While on the 1 Hour TF, it might look like Gold is constantly rising, if you go onto a higher TF like 4HR/Daily, you'll see Gold momentum is slowing down & buyers are very sluggish. We have seen a 5 wave, bullish completion on Gold & I am still expecting a retracement from this area to the downside. I am already holding buys, so my sells going into a bit of drawdown won't effect me as I am hedged in both directions. Perfect risk management for my Gold Fund investors as we lose nothing📈 Drop a like if you agree with this analysis and follow for more Gold updates✅
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
#BRENT crude oil - technical picture deterioratingAs we all know, Brent crude has been one of the strongest commodities for quite some time given all the supply issues from Russia/Ukraine and under investment. Oil has lost some critical technical levels losing both its horizontal support, rising channel as well as 200 day moving average. The market can be telling us two things, potentially, (1) there is some sort of resolution to the Russia/Ukraine embargo, or (2) Economic growth slows down as we enter recession, with demand destruction starting to take place Next target is likely $86 which was an important level of resistance in prior years - and likely to become support should we drop further.
TVC:UKOILShort
by MarcoOlevano
EUROPE is going to enter into recession soonThe closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become. Main one being natural gas. Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes. Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most. Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price. More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs. Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer. By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical: We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios. 1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher. 2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
RUS:NG1!Long
by Artem_Dishel
9
EUR/USD shrugs as German confidence slipsThe euro is in positive territory at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0245, up 0.30%. The US dollar lost some of its lustre last week and the euro took advantage. EUR/USD posted its first winning week in a month and pulled some distance away from the parity line. The euro has posted gains today but there was some alarming data out of Germany. Ifo Business Sentiment dropped to 88.6 in June, down sharply from 92.2 in May and shy of the consensus estimate of 90.2. The reading marked the lowest level in more than two years and was accompanied by an unusually grim message from the head of the Ifo Institute. Klaus Wohlrabe said that a recession in Germany was "knocking on the door" due to high energy prices and the possibility of gas shortages faced by Germany. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline opened on Thursday as scheduled after being shut for maintenance but only at about 40% capacity, which was the case before it shut down.  At that level, Germany may need to ration gas in order to reach its target of 90% storage capacity before winter sets in. The EU has suggested that member countries scale back their gas needs by 15% starting August 1st, but already some members are pushing back and demanding exemptions, making it uncertain if this voluntary plan will get off the ground. The EU is clearly worried that Russia will weaponise its energy exports to Europe, which has implemented sanctions against Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. With each member state having to worry about its own citizens having sufficient gas in the winter, we could see cracks appear in the EU's attempt to have a unified stance against Russia. EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191.  The next support level is 1.0105 There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
by OANDA
Updates of Options Strategy on Wheat FuturesCBOT:ZW1! On June 15th, I issued an options trading strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures. At the time, I expected wheat price to experience a very large move but was unsure of its direction. Consequently, I recommended a Long Strangle options strategy : Purchase both an out-of-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on September Wheat Futures. The original trading idea may be found here: . Let’s review how this trade performed five weeks after its initiation: Initial market conditions on June 14th: • September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel. • An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. • An OTM put with a $9.00 strike is quoted at 4.625 cents. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you could lose if wheat price did not break out the upper ceiling or fall through the lower floor set by the strikes. At this writing on July 18th: a) ZWU2 futures is quoted at $7.81/bushel, down $2.73 or -26%. Our expectation of big price move is proven to be correct . b) Call options with $12.00 strike price is quoted at 10 cents, down 7 cents. Even though futures price declines, there is still time value in the OTC call options. c) Put options with $9.00 strike is quoted at 85.5 cents, up 1749%. Due to the nonlinear nature of options pricing, our put is hugely profitable as it is now $1.19 deep in-the-money. What can we do today? There are two options: 1) Sell both the call and put with offsetting trades. The call would realize a loss of $350, and the put has a profit of $4,043.75, making the combined total at $3,693.75. Taking the $1,081.25 premium we paid upfront as our cost base, gross profit will be $2,612.5 per contract, or +242% return in a five-week holding period. 2) Hold the positions . There are five more weeks left before the August 26th options expiration, and wheat price could make bigger move. For illustration purpose, let’s use today’s price as exercise price. The Call would expire worthless as it is out-of-the-money, and we lose the $850 initial investment. However, by exercising the put, we gain $1.19 (=9.00-7.81) per bushel, and $5,950 per contract. The combined gross profit will be $4,018.75, or +372% . Why does this trade work? The key lies with a properly set-up strategy. It’s time to revisit our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium In February through May, the Russia-Ukraine conflict put a huge Crisis Premium on wheat price, driving it from $8 to $12-$13, before moving lower to around $10. Since June, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and recession fears overtake supply concerns as the main market driver. As fighting in Ukraine drags on, the impact from crisis diminishes, and Bearish Market Sentiment takes over. Commodities markets from energy, metals to agricultural products all suffered a huge loss. Looking forward, I expect that Intrinsic Value, or traditional supply and demand factors, would come back as key market mover. The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture set a bearish tone in the grain market, sending wheat price to fall further. For our CBOT Wheat Strangle options trade, I favor closing the positions now over holding it to expiration. Here is my reasoning: In a classic economic supply and demand chart, fundamental factors move market price along the supply line and demand line. Price movement tends to be moderate and within a narrow band. This is what the Wheat price chart shows before February 24th. On the contrary, crisis premium pushes either the supply line or the demand line to shift sideway, resulting in big price jumps. In the case of Wheat futures, investors are concerned that a loss of Russian wheat would reduce global supply by as much as 25%. Wheat price responded by a series of limit-up days and jumped 40% in two weeks. Note that daily price limit (up or down) on wheat futures is 70 cents per bushel. In the absence of conflict escalation in Ukraine, volatility in wheat price would likely stay muted going forward. Additionally, time value, which is part of the options premium, will decrease quickly as contract expiration nears. In the Black-Scholes Model, options price is positively correlated with volatility. Expected low volatility combined with diminishing time value will make it difficult for our Long Options to increase in value. This is my argument against holding on to the options. As the likelihood of global recession grows, food crisis will stay on as a major global issue in 2022 and 2023. Famine could hit weaker economies. Agricultural commodities will be a good risk management tool to hedge the rising food cost. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
21
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc. The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength. However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile. Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble. At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
23
NAS100 [US100] Daily Outlook | July 18Long Term Outlook: Looking at NAS100 Daily TF, the asset remains bearish until 12949.00 level is broken. I see a trend-line joining 13500, 12949 and 12175 indicating that price may yet see 11163 area with enough volume . Short Term Outlook: a. 1HR break and closure above 12120 zone could drive price to test 12305 and subsequently 12572 zones. b. On the other hand, the break and closure of 1HR price bar below 12012 zone, we may yet see a dip down to 11777 zone with big emphasis around 11926.89 area Let me know what you think in the comment section. NOTE: I trade NAS100 and EURUSD live from Mon-Fri at 8:45 AM EST/ 4:45 PM GST Kindly check my profile for the streaming information. Join the winning team! -Kings
VANTAGE:NAS100
by Kingsley_lotanna
$CRK oil hedge 2.0 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: Our last time entering this thing was at $20 on 6/9/22! We carefully avoided taking a big hit on this trade by exiting on 6/15/22 at $17.42 per share. Today my team entered oil company Comstock $CRK again, but this time dirt cheap at $12 per share. Take profit is unknown but the set-up looks extremely bullish! OUR ENTRY: $12 STOP LOSS: $11 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:CRKLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
EURUSD Daily Outlook | July 15Daily Outlook: Previous day's bar eventually broke 0.99999 level and took price all the way down to 0.99528. As long as am concerned, the daily TF is showing more bearish signs where we expect wick fill by today's daily candle. I say that price may kiss 0.99500 today. Intraday Outlook: 1. There seems to be a range between 1.00476 and 0.99794 zones where we want to see 1 HR break and closure above 1.00476 before we can open buy positions with targets as 1.00844 (37 pips) and 1.01193 (72 pips). 2. The break of 1.00134 is a good signs of bearish presence but must be confirmed by allowing 1HR price bar to close below the zone before we can comfortably take any sell position. Our target for bearish positions are gonna be 0.99794 (34 pips) and 0.99528 (60 pips) Let me know what you think in the comment section. NOTE: I trade NAS100 and EURUSD live from Mon-Fri at 8:45 AM EST/ 4:45 PM GST I closed 2 trades with massive profits ( NAS100 sell and EURUSD sell) during my live streaming yesterday, and all my live audience took advantage of this opportunity to secure good wins. Kindly see my previous streaming video for educational purposes. Join the winning team! -Kings
by Kingsley_lotanna