ARKHAMSecond highest percentage of usage for Arkham is found in the Russian Federation. I'd predict Russia is using this website to the fullness of its abilities to discover information about rich people, or other groups that hold large amounts of cryptocurrency. Not necessarily a good thing when Russian Federation uses this site more than other places considering the state of extremism Russia is moving towards. Data according to info on crunchbase.com* The logo of arkham looks like a pentagon, similar to things Russian's like to attempt to attack, hack, and infiltrate.
Russia
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon.
All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions.
I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown.
The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now.
Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
Macro Monday 55 - European gateway to M.East & Russia Macro Monday 55
Turkey - Europe’s gateway to the Middle East and Russia
Turkey holds a vital strategic position as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East.
Turkey’s economy has been making leaps and bounds over the past decade and the war in Ukraine has resulted in significant increase in trade through the country, benefiting its logistic companies and economic status. As one of the main corridors from Europe to the Middle East and beyond, let’s see what this blossoming trade Centre can offer us.
Russia’s Trade Enabler
Turkey has become a crucial transit point for Russian goods, especially since the war. Its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia allows it to facilitate trade routes between all these regions. As a result, Russian produce has increasingly passed through Turkey, benefiting both countries economically, and indirectly benefitting Europe.
In June 2023, Turkey’s exports to Russia increased by 23.9%, reaching $848.4 million—a substantial surge compared to the previous year’s figure of $684.9 million. Moreover, during the first half of the year (January to June), Turkey’s exports to Russia more than doubled, reaching $4.9 billion compared to last year’s $2.6 billion. Despite a decline in imports, Russia remains Turkey’s largest trading partner in terms of goods purchased. Russia’s favor to Turkey during the currency crisis, including postponing a natural gas debt and recognizing Turkey as a reliable gas route to Europe, has further strengthened their economic ties
Robust GDP Growth
Turkey’s GDP expanded by 4.5% in 2023, driven by strong private consumption, increased investment, and government spending. Additionally, in 2021, Turkey achieved an impressive 11% annual GDP growth, making it the fastest-growing economy globally for the 2021 year. For the 2024 year a GDP growth rate of between 2.9% and 4% is expected depending on the authority advising. Amazingly, according to Trading Economics, the GDP annual growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 was 5.7%, a significant acceleration from the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP rose by 2.4% in Q1.
Demographics
With a population of 85.8 million, Turkey has a sizable labor force and a young demographic profile. As of 2023, the median age of the Turkish population is 34 years, up from 28.3 in 2007. This youthful demographic profile contributes to productivity and economic dynamism.
Produce and Exports
Turkey’s top exports include refined petroleum oils, cars, jewelry, automotive parts, and trucks. Turkey has a complex and varied array of produce that contribute significantly to its versatile economy. Turkeys produce and exports are so diverse that they don’t appear to be a global leader in any one item, however In 2023, Turkey exported $12.3 billion worth of Refined Petroleum, making it the 24th largest exporter of this product globally. Refined Petroleum accounted for 12.1% of Turkeys total exports.
Poverty Reduction
Rapid economic growth has led to substantial poverty reduction. The poverty rate decreased from above 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021.
Investment Climate
Turkey’s business-friendly environment attracts foreign direct investment (FDI). It offers incentives, a skilled workforce, and access to diverse markets. We can see that it has even bolstered relations with Russia and Europe during their conflict, being a go between, between the two.
Tourism
Tourism plays a crucial role, with Turkey being a popular destination for travelers and medical tourism. Turkey’s efforts to enhance its healthcare sector have positioned it as a prominent player in European medical tourism and now other continents are starting to travel here for affordable medical procedures.
Resilience and Adaptation
Despite challenges, Turkey continues to adapt to global economic shifts, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, emphasizing sustainability and resilience.
The Chart
NASDAQ TURKEY Index - NASDAQ:NQTR
The NASDAQ Turkey Index is a float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of securities assigned to Turkey
Subject chart
- The chart speaks for itself.
- We have broken out of long term downtrend and have a great trading opportunity with a 6:1 reward to risk when looking for a bounce from support.
And that’s it for this week folks, we have the wind at our backs for the above trade and its worth reviewing logistic companies in Turkey. We will be looking out for them here. The liked of Reysas Lojistic - BIST:RYSAS has been on an absolute tear.
All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Turkey market is performing.
I hope its helpful.
PUKA
India's inflation data in focus as Modi meets Putin As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures.
India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this enduring relationship is energy cooperation, which has played a pivotal role in stabilizing fuel prices and, consequently, inflation in India.
In May 2024, India's annual consumer inflation rate eased to 4.75%, down slightly from 4.83% in April. Projections for the upcoming data suggest a minor decrease to 4.70%.
However, Reuters reports indicate a different trend. According to a poll of 54 economists, inflation in India likely edged up in June, breaking a five-month streak of declines. This increase is attributed to a surge in vegetable prices, driven by extreme weather conditions damaging crops. The poll forecasts inflation rising to 4.80% year-on-year in June, up from 4.75% in May. Food prices, which constitute around half of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, are a significant factor in this anticipated rise.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
The USD/INR potentially maintains its bullish bias, staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Upside targets include 83.65, the upper boundary of its trading range. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 83.40 serves as an initial support level for the pair.
$3K gold in 2024 according to Citi $3K gold in 2024 according to Citi
Citi bank suggests that gold prices might experience a surge of up to 50%, reaching $3,000 per ounce this year.
This projection is based on two potential scenarios. The first involves a continuation of central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil, increasing their gold accumulation. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have maintained a trend of purchasing over 1,000 tons of net gold for two consecutive years. Citi thinks that a doubling of this tonnage is possible.
The second scenario considers the possibility of global conflicts intensifying, leading buyers to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
Interestingly, today, the US has started warning its allies about Russia's potential deployment of a nuclear anti-satellite space weapon this year. CNN sources reveal Russia's efforts to develop a weapon capable of destroying commercial and government satellites by generating a massive energy wave upon detonation.
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.
“IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council.
Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.
XAUUSD GOLDPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves at Demand Zone or Fibonacci Level - 61.80%. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line. It has completed the Break of Structure and making its Retracement
short term sell Crude oilCrude oil Gapped upon market opening due to Russia making a statement on Sunday stating they will potentially do a 50,000 Barrell cut a day for the month of December; amid Moscow suspended about 2/3 of its main export grade of crude from parts due to a storm and scheduled maintenance on Fridays.
Oil gapped to 72.47 touching our first TP on the pivot point.
Looking for a sell to P as I look for confirmation of which direction the market will be going this week
on the 30 minute time frame price is below R! indicating a price correction another confirmation of a sell to 70.63 and breaking of the minor structure trend line. If price respects the P expect price to go to R1 and possibly R2. If prices breaks P then expect price to fall to $70.63
Looking for sell entry around 72.15 area
Exploring the Unassailable Position of the U.S. DollarTechnical analysis
From the point of view of technical analysis, we believe that the EUR/USD pair has completed the corrective wave Ⓑ after reaching the price range of 1.0945-1.097, which has also been a strong resistance zone over the last few days.
After which, we expect that EUR/USD will continue to correct within the impulsive wave © until it reaches a strong support zone.
Fundamental Analysis
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
Moreover, the US economy has shown remarkable resilience relative to Europe in recent months, reflected in the faster rate of decline in inflation, job growth, and foreign direct investment. In addition, according to Adobe, Americans spent a record $5.6 billion on online shopping, up 5.5% from November 23, 2022, which will also help increase the attractiveness of the USD relative to the EUR.
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Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
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Remember, while laughter is a great asset in life, serious strategy and research are your best allies in navigating the crypto markets. 😉 this is just for fun, don't start drinking vodka!
Buy This Bargain Before It's GoneIn early October 2023, we updated our previous forecast for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust for the current year. Its price, after a short-term breakthrough of the triangle pattern (marked as (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)), returned above its lower border, and a new upward trend began despite the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the world, mainly due to the Hamas war against Israel.
On the other hand, in mid-November, US inflation data was released, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the Fed's policy. So, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% for the 12 months ending in October, one of the lowest values in recent years.
The sharp decline in this indicator was primarily due to a significant decrease in prices for both energy and used cars and trucks.
Ultimately, these data triggered a short squeeze on government bonds, which had a positive impact on the stock market. Currently, on the daily timeframe (1D) of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a gap has formed in the price range from $441 to $446, which, according to our estimates, will be closed in the next 1-2 weeks.
On a more global scale
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
We believe that the decline in 2-year Treasury yield will continue in the near future, which will also support the continued momentum of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Moreover, financial market participants should pay closer attention to changes in the yield curve, which is becoming increasingly important and one of the most accurate fundamental tools for predicting changes in sentiment on Wall Street.
As soon as the 2-year Treasury rate approaches the 10-year Treasury rate, this will provoke investors and traders to exit long positions in bonds and more aggressively buy ETFs, shares of technology and pharmaceutical companies.
Conclusion
We believe the pace of the US economic recovery will continue to accelerate and expect the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to reach $463-$464 by the end of 2024.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures.
Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time?
These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control.
Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
Analysis of the Russian ruble in the long term (weekly)
The weekly price floor of the ruble will definitely be tested again (0.006544).
The price at its weekly bottom is completely empty of buyers. Shadvi Boland is also a confirmation of this.
But now is not the time
At this time, due to the Israeli-Palestinian war, the ruble has a price break and can experience growth.
But Russia is getting weaker and weaker.
Not financial advice
$GOLD Index - Q3/2023 *3M (Quarterly)
Looking at TVC:GOLD on the 3M(Monthly) Tf(Time-frame)
from an investor perspective view of positioning;
(long-term investing on the yellow stone)
we can see it sitting at no men's land at the current price,
as well Changing Character and Breaking Market Structer (Lower Low) in price action ;
(Lows of Q2)
Despite its Bearish Price Action on *3M ,
States and Central Banks around the World have continued accumulating,
spreading wide their balance sheets in-to TVC:GOLD Reserves .
And so have done many another States,
including 2 out of three Global Superpowers of
China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and Russia ECONOMICS:RUGRES
Set-up is there for one more move up in AFKS Russian large Investment company AFK Systems has nice technical potential for at least one more bullish leg up towards 19-21 region.
Price could have ended its correction started in Aug'23 and could be forming the bottom of the new cup. In order to confirm this scenario, we need price to first hold its Sep's low at 16.60 and move decisively above its 50D MA, breaking out above 17.80 low cheat pivot.
Not positioned in this name as for now, but will be looking to start entering if price moves closer to 17.80, consolidates for a day or two and breaks out above highs of 9th Oct.
MoscowExchange is prone to take a rest soonRecord new account openings on MoscowExchange during 2023, has played its role in almost 90% stock advance since the year start.
The stock and volume dynamics show strong uptrend with good signs of accumulation on a weekly chart.
My chart analysis shows, that price has reached an important resistance zone of its strongest uptrend wave 3 at around 182 area and is now to be expected to re-base again, correcting ideally to its mid-term area of support: 155-166 area.
We may also notice that price looks extended from its 10w MA, that is a historical cautious sign for continuation of short and mid-term advance. We may also notice, that in Mar23 once price went above 50D MA by 18% that led to 2 months of correction.
Despite my bearish leaning short-term, my analysis still has room for price to extend to higher resistance targets to 195-200 area as an alt. wave 3 target.
Trading thesis : if price breaks bellow 21ema, preferably with volume pick-up, I would expect a move down to 166-155 area. If price decides to instead move above 185, I expect it to find resistance in 195-200.
POSI - Russian leader in cybersecurity The actuality of cybersecurity for Russia in the absence of global brands becomes even sharper and provides unique opportunities for the best local provider to capture growing market share.
Stock price technical perspective still illustrates strong up-trend, with some caution signals to be mindful about if one decides to trade it.
On a weekly time-frame, price is solidly supported above the 10w MA, that is crucial for me to consider trading the upside of any stock. Although, I cautious about important fibonacci resistance levels at 2500 area. I price will not be able to follow-through its recent break-out attempt from 5 weeks flat base and move above 2500 zone, than I have hard times considering wave 4 finished, and will expect more deep and long correction (probably to 2070-1850 support zone).
That being sad, in my trading, I try not to forecast, but to follow the price and volume dynamics. And when the set-up is favourable and I have positive traction in my personal portfolio, I will take it without any hesitation.
Thesis : Above 2415 line and I expect price to follow-through and move towards 2600-2800 resistance zone. Below this line and I am out, and wait either for more tight entry set-up or stepping on the sidelines at all.
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas)
has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% .
This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! .
Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity.
Congratulations to those who took action.
(Calm before Winter's Storm Idea;
Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts)
We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence,
leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone
(which may not be reached now due to the conflict)
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and
journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week.
Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs.
Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal.
Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up.
General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone.
I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.