RUSSELL 2000 Rally (Pequeñas Empresas) (Small Companies Index)
Russell se acerca a un nuevo territorio que podría borrar los viejos números arrojados por COVID. Es técnico hablar de 1700 puntos como la resistencia más dura, pero es la meta en el corto plazo para así nivelar la psicología sobre la recuperación económica.
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Russell is aproaching a new territory which could erase old COVIDS results, it is technical that 1700 points is the hardest top, but that is the goal in a short term.
Russell2000
RUT- The final golden cross for the major indexsAccording to Finviz, more than 75% of stocks are above SMA50 and close to 60% of stocks are above SMA 200. Furthermore, SPX has stayed above 3200 for a month.
Historically, DJI is usually the first index to recover after the market crash because investors want to put their money in safe mega cap and blue chip stocks
during the bottom-out process and time of uncertainty.
However, Covid-19 is producing the favorable environment for e-commerce company and internet/IT services company that power e-commerce to thrive, leading to the NDX's wild surge and SPX & DJI's unusual lag.
Russel 2000, the small cap index, is usually the last one to join the rally because it is usually deemed as a risky investment by investors, especially during the time of uncertainty.
Therefore, when investors flock to RUT (Russel 2000), it could signal and reaffirm the bullish sentiment among investors, drawing the last of doubters and FOMOers into the market.
That time could be now.
August 9 Market UpdateDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Please note, for some reason, TradingView decided not to allow me the ability to use links, as usual. As a result, I will use the comments section of this post to add further detail.
I've submitted a support ticket. Hopefully everything goes back to normal!
Points of Interest:
All Time High; Divergence Between Value And Price; Gaps.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices resolved a prior balance area to the upside, evidenced by a successful breakout and migration of value.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, as M&A activity lifted sentiment and efforts to hammer out a coronavirus relief bill resumed, the S&P 500 moved out of a multi-week balance area, finishing further into the low-volume area left from the late February sell-off. Overnight, prices caught up to Monday’s divergent delta after disappointing earnings reports from Europe and a sharp rebuke from China. Tuesday’s U.S. session managed to get past the uninspiring news, closing higher and validating the breakout from balance.
Indices continued their trek higher Wednesday, closing and establishing value above prior balance on upbeat economic data and positive earnings. Pre-U.S. open, on Thursday, the S&P filled a prior gap, finding liquidity at the $3,300 strike before climbing higher, on poor structure and ahead of value, as investors reacted to upbeat jobless claims data.
Friday’s U.S. session further digested data on jobs, spending most of the cash session accepting value in the higher end of Thursday’s trading range, before squeezing into the close.
In light of mostly unchanged fundamental conditions, equity indices are positioned for further upside. Overall, the market appears to be migrating value higher, confirming the bullish trend. News regarding improving fundamentals and stimulus is likely to buoy the S&P in subsequent sessions. The potential exists, however, for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Earnings; JOLTS; NFIB Small Business Survey; Producer Prices; CPI; NAR Metro Prices; Import and Export Prices; Productivity; Industrial Production; University of Michigan Sentiment.
Fundamental:
Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) announced its sales increased from last year.
Software-as-a-Service and its potential impact on future business models.
Fitch revises U.S. outlook, cites absence of a fiscal consolidation plan.
Trump signed an order banning U.S. business with TikTok and WeChat.
After a 2013 tax hike, the S&P posted its best annual gain in 16 years.
Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) to make Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) treatment.
Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: KODK) to play a key role in generic drug making.
Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) wants 3,000 workers to take unpaid leave.
Canada adds more jobs than expected in July; most were part-time positions.
Trump signed an executive order restoring enhanced economic relief.
Canada to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, hopes for resolution.
U.S. Postal Service chief warns of dire finances, adopts a hiring freeze.
Giving credit where credit is due: Tom Sosnoff on the Robinhood story.
The U.S. earnings recovery may be faster than in previous crises.
More businesses will tap the Fed’s loan program if the economy worsens.
Federal Reserve, central banks are heading for a collision with shadow lenders.
Understanding the disconnect between consumers and the stock market.
Household debt, credit delinquencies dropped during Q2 recession.
The U.S. shows signs of coronavirus peak, but difficult days lie ahead.
Crude supplies are expected to remain ample for the foreseeable future.
Auto sales turn a corner, carmakers post better than expected earnings.
The U.S. and China have agreed to hold high-level trade talks on August 15.
Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) strong operating results reflect diversity, resilience.
A 10% balance sheet expansion grows market returns by 7.4%, over 5-8 weeks.
Europe’s global investment banks reduced operating leverage in Q2.
Russia expands subsidized mortgage programs, supporting banks’ earnings.
LSE’s sale of MTS and Borsa Italiana stakes credit positive if proceeds reduce debt.
Mexican insurers’ strong earnings enhance capacity to withstand economic contraction.
The California Supreme Court upholds certain pension changes, maintains protections.
U.S. will pay $1B for 100M doses of Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE: JNJ) vaccine.
Canada signs deal with Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE), Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA).
Record stimulus, liquidity surge to offset losses, open up the possibility of further upside.
Hilton Hotels Corporation (NYSE: HLT) sees demand rebounding to pre-virus levels.
Bombardier Inc (OTC: BDRBF) sees higher deliveries of jet, misses quarterly profit.
Governor Lael Brainard laid out the Federal Reserve’s instant payment framework.
Negative real yields presage a weaker dollar, as well as higher gold prices.
The job market recovery appears to be slowing as the services sector powers ahead.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) bought Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) stock.
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) launches a TikTok-like product inside of Instagram.
CVS Health Corp (NYSE: CVS) in talks with the government over vaccines.
Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) prices vaccines at $32-$37 per dose.
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) does not see immediate need to raise cash with debt.
Investors worried about the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
Manufacturing activity jumped to its highest level in nearly a year and a half.
Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) raised its gold target to $3,000/oz.
Construction spending falls for the fourth straight month, but is still up from 2019.
Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) may pay hundreds of millions in fines over a privacy issue.
BP plc (NYSE: BP) halves dividend after record loss, speeds up reinvention.
Inflation in emerging markets is rising out of central bankers’ target ranges.
Top CEOs urge Washington to get small businesses money as soon as possible.
Economists at major investment banks worry about negative jobs growth.
Fed policymakers call for fiscal support to save the U.S. economy.
Canadian factory activity resumes expansion in July as the economy reopens.
New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in June.
New Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) CEO eyes expansion into technology.
Air safety regulator gives no firm date for Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX to fly.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc’s (NASDAQ: AMD) Q2 and outlook are credit positive.
Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) Q2 strengths in core business offset virus disruption.
Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS) Q2 capital markets businesses offset disruption.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) to continue TikTok acquisition discussion.
Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE: MPC) agreed to sell gas stations to 7-Eleven..
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG), fast food brands set for new hiring wave.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL) unveils 5G phones, cuts Pixel price.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL) to buy a stake in ADT home security.
Sentiment: 23.3% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 47.6% Bearish as of 8/5/2020.
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,835,553,302 as of 8/7/2020.
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43.4% as of 8/7/2020.
Product Snapshot:
See Comment Section.
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russell's Time to Shine Part 2 8/8/2020Whelp, here we are. It looks like I was right. Since July 13th, this was RTY's time to shine.
While the FOMOers and Robinhooders were chasing the tech hype in NQ, institutions resumed their distribution within the NQ. Institutions were selling tech shares and taking advantage of the tech hype. The settled cash was then used to invest in non-tech stocks that are vital to the economy such as transportation, financials, and utilities. I'm not going to judge them. I would've done the same thing. You can't build an economy if you have no bank account, no shipping, and no electricity or waste management.
What sectors make up a large part of the RTY? Transportation, financials, utilities, industrial, and energy - the non-tech stocks.
While amateur traders were chasing the tech hype, the NQ only gained nearly 8% since July 13th. The RTY gained nearly 14% since July 13th.
This is why traders should never limit themselves to just one index or one sector. They just missed better opportunities out there.
RUT en Ascenso/ RUT 2000 RisingQuizás podría golpear el nivel de 1540, pero esto es una señal de estímulo de la FED a las pequeñas compañías.
Ten precaución porque estamos esperando un momento general de volatilidad.
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Maybe it could Hit the top at 1540, but it is a sign of stimulus from FED to small companies.
Be aware because we are holding a moment of volatility in general.
August 1 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
February Gap Zone; Uninspiring Upside Participation; Divergence Between Value And Price; ATH.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices held onto recent gains, evidenced by the absence of directional surprise.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, after the prior week’s action brought the S&P 500 back to its monthly VWAP and $3,190, an area tested multiple times, participants sold the market further to Friday’s most traded price, as is usual, before impulsing higher, through the resting liquidity at $3,230, on upbeat economic news and stimulus hopes.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 attempted to eat into the poor structure left from the July 23 sell-off, prior to allocating to safety on underwhelming quarterly earnings in the European session. For the remainder of the American session, the S&P traded responsively and lower, with delta, into the close as U.S. fundamental data weakened. Intermediate-term buyer’s remained in control on Wednesday as the S&P walked it’s way higher, albeit on poor structure and participation, as the Federal Reserve reiterated a pledge to support the economy and positive earnings updates.
On Thursday, after a gap down on more dismal earnings data from Europe, the S&P took a shot at some resting liquidity in the $3,200 area, prior to putting in an excess low and trading higher, behind the Nasdaq, to and through a prior low-volume area. On better than expected economic and fundamental releases out of the United States, the S&P continued its trek higher Friday, squeezing into the close, ahead of value.
Despite blow-out earnings, equity indices are showing signs of exhaustion, evidenced by the uninspiring upside participation. Overall, the market appears to be digesting upside moves through time, sending mixed signals to directional traders. Moving forward, attention should be paid to upside follow-through by small-caps, energy, and financials, among other parts of the broader market.
Scroll to the bottom of this document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
ADP Employment, Challenger Layoffs; Weekly Unemployment Claims; ISM Indices; ISM New York Business Conditions; Construction Spending; Home Prices; Vehicle Sales And Prices. tmsnrt.rs
Fundamental:
S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates at a higher pace. bit.ly
Blow-out earnings show tech dominates as 10% of jobs may never return. on.mktw.net
ECB extends dividend ban despite banks’ resistance to COVID-19 effects. bit.ly
Rates will remain near the zero bound for many years to come. bloom.bg
As GDP tanked, personal income grew thanks to government support. bit.ly
U.S. specialty stores have been hit hard with downgrades. bit.ly
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU) limits losses, sees better second half. reut.rs
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) to defer quarterly payments on retooling loan. reut.rs
Outlook for U.S. value stocks looks uncertain in light of cloudy economic picture. reut.rs
Poll shows global funds favoring bonds over stocks on surging coronavirus infections. reut.rs
U.S. consumer spending presses ahead; declining income poses challenges. reut.rs
Trump to sign an executive ban on TikTok amid pressure on Chinese owner to sell. reut.rs
China accounts for nearly one-quarter of Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) revenue. tcrn.ch
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) in talks to buy TikTok’s U.S. business. tcrn.ch
Tech stocks may be growing at the expense of others, or the economy itself. bloom.bg
Congressional Testimony: Lawmakers question big tech about competition, startups. bit.ly
Benchmark yield dips; convexity-hedging would accelerate a decline in yields. bloom.bg
The public’s view of almost every industry improved since the beginning of the virus. bit.ly
Exxon Mobile Corporation (NYSE: XOM) struggles to reverse failed bets. reut.rs
Renters owe $21.5B in back rent; Republicans and Democrats fight over relief. reut.rs
Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA), Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) start COVID-19 trials. reut.rs
Big tech must take relative market cap from other sectors to keep growing. bit.ly
Fed chief says coronavirus surge is slowing U.S. economic recovery. reut.rs
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) to pay off loan if recovery continues. reut.rs
Fed buying spree could move to long end of yield curve, analysts say. reut.rs
eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) classifieds sale not a big hit to revenue. bit.ly
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) guidance and delays are credit negative. bit.ly
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) DOJ investigation remains open. bit.ly
Hurricane Douglas heads toward Hawaii, threatening losses for insurers. bit.ly
Virus surge and the expiration of relief measures imperil economic recovery. bit.ly
August the best month for the dollar and volatility, worst for bonds. bloom.bg
Second COVID-19 wave forces new travel curbs around the globe. reut.rs
Reported cases and fatalities fell in states hard hit by the coronavirus. bloom.bg
Rural small businesses may not survive another coronavirus shutdown. bit.ly
The housing market defies expectations amid economic turmoil. politi.co
Far more investors are opting to take physical delivery when gold contracts end. bloom.bg
Good performance in one period does not predict outperformance in another. bloom.bg
The U.S-China cold war would redirect energy flows, alter global supply chains. reut.rs
China is buying American but not enough to hit the trade deal targets. bloom.bg
Managing the dynamic reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet over time. bit.ly
Plentiful evidence that the resurgence of COVID-19 has choked the recovery. bloom.bg
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) slashed production of its biggest twin-engined jets. reut.rs
Sentiment: 20.2% Bullish, 31.3% Neutral, 48.5% Bearish as of 7/29/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,520,246,115 as of 7/31/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.4% as of 7/31/2020. bit.ly
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russell Consolidando / A Lateral RussellEste índice, una lupa muy importante a 2000 Pequeñas Empresas que determinan la verdadera salud económica de USA, se encuentra en un rango de vital impulso pero el que ahora solo ha consolidado.
Su equilibrio de como iban las cosas antes del virus, estaba en 1700 pts. Debe acercarse en el mediano plazo y consolidar un poco más arriba para que la barrera psicológica que hasta ahora Dow Jones, SP y Nasdaq han logrado, complementen la continuidad al alza.
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This is a fundamental index, it is a macro picture of small companies in USA, these companies tell you more about employment data, bankruptcy, etc, with a microscope. The index must consolidate at this area (1500 aprox) and take another jump to 1700 points at least in a mid term, joining the sentiment with Dow Jones, SP and Nasdaq.
RTY's Time to Shine 7/24/2020The RTY at the 4 hour view. Tech shares are finally getting corrected by institutions. Thank God. The NQ was seriously overextended and bloated.
While tech and biotech will be going ultimately sideways for the rest of the summer, this is a great moment for non-tech sectors to grow from the Distribution Cycle.
RTY is filled with non-tech sectors. Investors are flocking for dividend stocks which the RTY is loaded with them. RTY will soon be my favorite index to long and the NQ will be my index to short from at this rate.
The question is: will the RTY fill that giant gap below or make another run for 1500+?
Time is running out for Russell 2000! $IWMRussell 2000 still has a decent amount of momentum on the H1 and Day time frames, but it is decision time next week into the FOMC statement and press conference. It is time to decide if we obey election year seasonality (and get an emergency PUA extension next week likely) or fall into mid August.
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SPY Analysis and Prediction using VIX comparison As we saw today for the first time in a while, a long-overdue increase in VIX (up 7.24% on the day) and a red day for SPY (-1.19%, down -$3.90) the question is now what will happen? In my opinion, as you can see on the chart - once VIX starts to correct and gain momentum and move upwards, due to the countercyclical relationship VIX has with the S&P500, in my opinion, will create the long-overdue correction on this overstretched, bubbled in market. The "W" shape confirmation right below the blue horizontal line I placed shows the last time VIX was low and once it confirmed with the W shape upwards you can see the devasting impact it had on the price of SPY and the market itself. I believe VIX has begun and will continue to move upwards while SPY will correct and could potentially see some serious price reduction. Throw in the collapse of big tech companies (were mostly all extremely overvalued for the current state of our country and life itself) I think this correction was overdue and that investors need to tread cautiously. I have marked my price target zone with the rectangle on the right side using the past history of SPY and its movement for further explanation.
RTY at a Crossroads 7/21/2020This is RTY at the 4 hour view.
RTY is at a crossroads. It has a gap below that calling and pulling it down to fill it. At the same time, institutions are selling tech stocks and allocating that money to financials, transportation, and energy.
My plan is to wait for RTY to fill the gap or pullback first. The next upside target for RTY is 1500+. I don't want to end up chasing the RTY.
RTY Possible Bull Flag 7/20/2020I'm waiting for RTY to fill that gap. With big tech earnings this week and next week, I figured that this may be an excuse for transportation and financials to pull back.
It seems that RTY is bull flagging instead at the 4 hour. I asked the question: will the RTY fill the gap first then run for 1500+? Or will RTY run for 1500+ first then fill the gap later?
It's looking to be the latter so far. I hope I'm wrong on this. I would love to ride the bounce up.
RTY Channel 7/18/2020This is the RTY at the 4 hour.
Which will the RTY do first? Fill the gap below or breakout to reach 1500?
The NQ has entered into a distribution phase. Tech stocks are going down and the money is heading to the non-tech stocks like financials and transportation. That's the RTY's bread of butter.
RTY may be getting reach for another surge. The question is: will it fill the gap first or go for 1500?
Personally, I would be happy to buy RTY at the 1420's.
July 18 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low.
After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive.
Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support.
Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs
Fundamental:
Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly AMEX:JETS
Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs
Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs
Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs
Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs
Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly
60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly
The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg
Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly
Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly
84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly
63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly
$64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly
Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly
$40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly
China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs
Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly NYSE:D
U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly
Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly
Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly NYSE:ALL
U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly
Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg NASDAQ:MRNA
Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly
U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly
Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly
China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly
U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com
The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly
Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly NYSE:SCHW
Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs
China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly
Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net
Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs
Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com NYSE:ALLY
Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly
Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg NYSE:JPM
Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg
Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
Russell 2000 (RTY):
Gold (GC):
Crude Oil (CL):
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russel 2000 Elliotwave Count The Russel 2000 is probably exhibiting one of the clearest Elliotwave counts of all US Indices.
For one we can see a very clearly impulsive 5-wave drop from June 8th highs to June 15th lows.
Next we see a triangle in the middle of the retracement higher since which is a classic middle-of-retracement move.
Triangles are patterns prior to final ending wave...either as a Wave 4 (prior to wave 5) or as a wave B in the middle of an A-B-C 3-wave retracement.
In this case, we count a 5-wave wave A of the corrective A-B-C ---- then the 5 wave middle B triangle pattern (which I mentioned above) and since then the final wave C of the ABC shows 5 wave up.
Since we see a potential 5-wave leading diagonal and a 3 wave retracement which is potentially pointing to the beginning of the next massive wave down - similar to what happened between June 8 and 15.
The triangle pattern in the corrective pattern is what is very clear to me here and which points to the retracement since the June 15th low being a corrective pattern.
If this is indeed correct then the Bearish implications should carry over into the Dow and S&P.
Cheers!
Cyrus
RTY Breakout 7/15/2020Investors and traders are leaving tech to go for better value stocks: financials and transportation.
RTY rallied big time due to this shift in breadth. I am expecting a small pullback for RTY. However, from the looks of it, financials and transportation have entered into an uptrend channel.
If you're going to short, short very, very carefully. It's probably safer to long from major supports. Stock breadth is strengthening. Liquidity is strengthening. That is all pretty bullish. RTY is known for bouncing unexpectedly.
IWM - Russell Bull Trap?It seems unlikely to me that the Russell will find support here and move towards 158. Betting that this is a bull trap and we see a large move downwards towards $125 in July, with the Russell capturing the initial wave of negative news surrounding re-closures and disappointing earnings.
Entry: $141
Target: $125
RTY in a BoxThis is RTY at the 4 hour view. I just said screw it with the channels for now until RTY makes up its mind.
For now, RTY is stuck in a volatility box. The dotted lines are tier I support/resistance. The dashed lines are tier II support/resistance.
You can swing trade while the price goes back and forth. At URTY/SRTY, that's still a 3-7% profit per day.
The fate of RTY really rests on the decision that XLF/FAS and XTN/IYT make. Financials and transportation make a bull market. Why? Because every business needs a bank account and ways to ship/receive products. Even tech needs its semiconductors and a bank for venture capital.